Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORKSept 18 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended flat to slightly lower on Tuesday after bellwether FedEx cut its profit forecast and investors pulled back after last week's rally on central bank stimulus.

Falling oil prices weighed on the market for a second day, with the S&P 500 energy index, down 0.7 percent, the day's biggest decliner among the S&P's sectors.

The Standard & Poor's 500 remains up 5.3 percent since the end of July. The benchmark index reached levels not seen in nearly five years last Friday, a day after the Federal Reserve's unveiling of its plan to undertake a third round of stimulus. The Fed's announcement followed the European Central Bank's statement that it would buy bonds to support struggling euro- zone economies.

"We've gotten to the point where price momentum was such the market averages were overextended at the end of last week," said

Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co in Lake Oswego, Oregon. "Now we have this quiet period."

Shares of FedEx Corp fell 3.1 percent to $86.55. The Dow Jones transportation average lost 1.1 percent. FedEx cut its profit forecast for its fiscal year 2013, saying that a weakening world economy had prompted customers to shift toward lower-priced shipping.

Estimates for the third-quarter S&P 500 companies' profits have fallen sharply in recent months, and earnings now are expected to decline 2.2 percent from a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters data. It would be the first such decline in three years.

Apple Inc, which broke sales records with its new smartphone, provided some support to the market. Apple's stock set another all-time high at $702.33 before ending at $701.91, up 0.3 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 11.54 points, or 0.09 percent, to end at 13,564.64. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dipped 1.87 points, or 0.13 percent, to finish at 1,459.32. The Nasdaq Composite Index edged down 0.87 of a point, or 0.03 percent, to end at 3,177.80.

Weighing on the tech sector were shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc, which tumbled 9.7 percent to $3.62 a day after the company said its chief financial officer was leaving the struggling personal computer chipmaker. The PHLX semiconductor index lost 0.4 percent.

Economic data, however, offered a fresh sign of momentum for the housing market. U.S. homebuilder sentiment rose for the fifth month in a row in September to its highest level in over six years, the National Association of Home Builders said.

The PHLX housing sector index, however, was down 0.8 percent.

Aside from more economic reports on housing this week, investors will get readings on manufacturing. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's survey of activity in the mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Markit manufacturing purchasing manager's index for September, are due on Thursday.

Data on Monday showed factory activity in New York state fell to its lowest level in nearly 3-1/2 years.

Volume was lower than average for a second straight day, with roughly 5.9 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the Amex, compared with the year-to-date average daily closing volume of 6.5 billion. Many participants were out Monday and Tuesday for the observance of Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year.

Decliners outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by about 17 to 13, while on the Nasdaq, about 13 stocks fell for every 12 that rose.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Sept 18 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell for a second straight session on Tuesday, pressured by concerns about sputtering economic growth and indications that OPEC's top producer Saudi Arabia is working to drive down prices.

CBOT SOYBEAN-Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a third day on seasonal pressure from the expanding U.S. harvest along with fund-driven long liquidation, traders said.

* Nearby soybean contracts lost ground to deferreds on spreads due in part to investors rolling long positions in spot November soybeans forward.
  • Soymeal posted the biggest percentage declines in the soy complex and lost ground to soyoil as traders unwound meal/oil spreads.
  • Cash basis values for soybeans and soymeal softened in the U.S. Midwest interior as the harvest began to gain traction. 
  • A Reuters survey of 14 analysts projected the U.S. soybean yield at 35.85 bushels per acre, above USDA's Sept. 12 forecast of 35.3 bushels. 
  • Soybean prices could reach a new record of more than $18 a bushel this year as the U.S. harvest will not be large enough to meet global demand leading up to the new South American harvests in early 2013 - analysts Oil World.
  • Brazil’s 2013 soybean crop is forecast by Oil World to rise to 82.0 million tonnes, from 66.4 million tonnes in early 2012, while Argentina’s is seen rising to 56.0 million tonnes, from 40.5 million.
  • CBOT October options expire on Friday.

FCPO- KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures fell to a one-month low on Tuesday, tracking losses in soybean futures, which had posted their biggest daily drop in a year on a better-than-expected harvest in the U.S. Midwest.

Palm oil futures lost as much as 5.3 percent after resuming trading following a holiday break, as signs of better soybean yields in the U.S. Midwest and favourable crop weather in Brazil brightened global oilseed supply prospects.

"It's purely because of the grains complex. People are cashing out on the weather, so that triggered a lot of short orders, especially on the U.S. side," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.

"The palm oil market is under tremendous pressure."

The benchmark December 2012 contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange slid 125 ringgit to close at 2,861 ringgit ($936), off an earlier low of 2,827 ringgit, a level last seen on Aug. 15.

Total traded volume stood at 57,092 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 tonnes, as traders hedged positions and booked profits.

Resilient demand for the edible oil failed to turned the market around. Exports for the first half of September rose 12 percent from a month ago, cargo surveyer data showed.

Technicals were bearish as palm oil will fall to 2,573 ringgit per tonne over the next four weeks, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said based on a wave analysis. 

Brent crude, which fell more than $5 a barrel late Monday in a wave of late, high-volume selling, also dragged down palm oil prices, analysts said.

"I think this is in line with the global commodities sell-off," said Kenanga Investment's analyst Alan Lim Seong Chun.

"Because crude oil is the most representative of all the major assets in the commodities, I think sentiment for palm oil is very negative because of crude oil," he added.

Oil slipped to around $113 a barrel on Tuesday, extending the previous session's steep slide, on concerns about slowing global growth and signs that Saudi Arabia is pumping at high rates to dampen prices. 

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery fell 0.4 percent by 1004 GMT. The most active January 2013 soyoil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 2.8 percent lower after hitting a near 1-month low.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets retreated on Tuesday, mirroring concerns about slowing global growth and the debt problems in Europe, with large caps and commodities leading the way.

Jakarta's Composite Index fell 0.7 percent, snapping a two-day rally inspired by the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary stimulus. Thailand's SET index dipped 0.4 percent after a combined 1.6 percent gain on Monday and Friday.

Investors booked profits on recent gainers such as financials and commodities. Among the top actively traded stocks were Thailand's PTT Exploration and Production and Indonesia's Bumi Resources each fell over 2 percent.