Friday, June 29, 2012

RTRS- Indonesia palm oil shipments hampered by dry weather

JAKARTA, June 28 (Reuters) - Crude palm oil shipments from the world's top producer Indonesia are being hit by dry weather conditions, with falling water levels on a river hampering transportation of the edible oil from West Kalimantan, an industry official said on Thursday.

Shipments from West Kalimantan province had been halved from the usual 100,000 tonnes per month, Steaven Halim, an official at the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) told Reuters.

Palm analysts said the transportation issues would have little impact on prices and supplies, but that it was worth keeping a close eye on the situation as it develops.

"Crude pal oil transportation has been affected by low water levels on the Kapuas river," Halim said. "The dry season has caused the level of the river to drop and several areas of the river cannot be passed by ships carrying crude palm oil."

He added that transferring the crude palm oil to trucks was expensive and problematic because of a shortage of vehicles.


Data on Indonesia from GAPKI showed that January to May palm exports totalled 7.37 million tonnes, with May shipments 7 percent lower versus April at 1.4 million tonnes.


This year total palm oil output from Southeast Asia's largest economy is expected to be between 23 million and 25 million tonnes, up at least 7 percent, according to industry estimates.
According to Rabobank, 78 percent of Indonesian palm oil production comes from Sumatra, with Kalimantan output accounting for 18 percent.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Thursday but pared back sharp losses late in the session on talk of progress by European leaders in easing the region's debt crisis, while a Supreme Court ruling upholding a landmark healthcare law hit large health insurers.

Markets are especially skittish about any shift in expectations for the euro zone as European Union leaders met on the first day of a two-day summit in Brussels.

"This is a process that is just going to wind on and is going to bring us periodic bouts of volatility in our markets depending on the news flow," said Matt Kaufler, portfolio manager at Federated Investors in Rochester, New York.

Stocks began lower and losses accelerated after a divided U.S. Supreme Court backed the centerpiece of President Barack Obama's healthcare overhaul law.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 24.75 points, or 0.20 percent, to 12,602.26. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> shed 2.81 points, or 0.21 percent, to 1,329.04. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> lost 25.83 points, or 0.90 percent, to 2,849.49.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures slumped more than 3 percent on Thursday, sliding to an eight-month low intraday on selling prompted by concerns about Europe's debt crisis amid a European Union summit and by losses on Wall Street.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended lower after a choppy session, pressured by long liquidation and positioning a day ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's acreage and quarterly stocks reports, traders said.

Trade expects USDA on Friday to raise its estimate of U.S. 2012 soybean acreage. The average estimate for U.S. soybean plantings among 19 analysts surveyed by Reuters was 75.5 million acres, up from USDA's March projection of 73.9 million.

Funds hold a large net long position in CBOT soybeans, leaving the market vulnerable to bouts of long liquidation.

Trade expects no deliveries of soybeans or soymeal on Friday, which is first notice day for CBOT July deliveries.

Trade estimated soy deliveries at 1,500 to 5,000 contracts.

USDA confirmed sales of 110,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for 2012/13 delivery.

USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 793,100 tonnes (old and new crop years combined), above trade expectations for 500,000 to 700,000 tonnes.

USDA reported weekly export sales of U.S. soymeal at 261,300 tonnes, above trade expectations for 100,000 to 150,000, and soyoil sales at 13,500 tonnes, in line with trade estimates.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, June 28 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures slipped on Thursday to their lowest level this week, as investors awaited the outcome of a European leaders' summit that is unlikely to produce concrete measures to solve the region's debt crisis.

But traders said the hot and dry weather in the United States that tightened the supply of soybeans has provided support for palm oil prices. Investors are also awaiting a report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Friday to gauge stocks and production trends of soybeans.

"Prices are juxtaposed between the positive vibes of U.S. weather and negative news from Europe. Market players are awaiting Friday's USDA numbers before adding on more exposure," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

Benchmark September palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.6 percent to close at 2,998 ringgit ($939) per tonne. Traded volumes were thin at 21,457 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, June 28 (Reuters) - Indonesian stocks retreated from a five-week high on Thursday while Philippine shares lost earlier gains to end slightly lower amid broad-based selling in
energy linked stocks following a slip in global oil prices amid worries about euro zone crisis.

Jakarta's Composite Index <.JKSE> dropped 1.2 percent, with coal mining stock Harum Energy Tbk , which fell 3.5 percent, was among the biggest drags on the market. The Philippine index <.PSI> fell 0.03 percent on the day.

Philippine stock market was up 20 percent this year, ranking as the second best after Pakistan's <.KSE> gain of 22 percent, Thomson Reuters data showed. Manila has benefited this month from foreign investors seeking buying opportunities in an undervalued market.

Figures for June to Wednesday showed net foreign buying of $160 million on Philippine shares, contrasting to Indonesia and Thailand which reported net foreign selling of $230 million and $425 million for the period, respectively, Thomson Reuters data showed.

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, June 27 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected economic data helped lift energy stocks, overshadowing concerns a European Union summit will not yield tangible progress in easing the debt crisis.

The energy sector showed the strongest gains among the 10 major S&P 500 groups, rising 1.9 percent as oil prices settled higher at $80.21 a barrel. Cabot Oil & Gas Corp  jumped 9 percent to $41.24 and was the biggest advancer on the S&P 500.

Worries about Europe have fed dramatic selloffs in stocks lately, but the declines have been tempered by enough short-term buying to keep the market confined to a range. 

Sentiment was helped by better-than-expected sales of long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods in May, although excluding transportation and defense items, orders were down.

In other data, signed contracts for home purchases jumped to a seven-month high. The PHLX housing sector index climbed 3 percent, taking the year-to-date gains near 26 percent.

Shares of Lennar Corp, the third-largest U.S. homebuilder, rose 4.8 percent to $28.70 after it reported a rise in new orders for the fifth straight quarter. 

"Sentiment is pretty negative. When you get people this depressed, markets have a tendency to bounce and that is pretty much where we are at right now," said Doug Foreman, director of equities at Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management, an affiliated manager of Virtus Investment Partners in Los Angeles, California. 

Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc's surged 28.7 percent to $11.39 on news that U.S. health regulators approved the drugmaker's pill to treat obesity, the first weight-loss drug in 13 years. The Nasdaq biotech index <.NBI> gained 1.5 percent. 

But uncertainty remained ahead of the euro zone leaders' summit, which begins on Thursday. Few anticipate anything concrete to emerge from the two-day meeting after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said debt sharing, an idea backed by France, Italy and Spain, would not happen in her lifetime.

Healthcare stocks were in focus heading into Thursday's U.S. Supreme Court decision on President Barack Obama's 2010 healthcare law. Some investors have their attention on stocks less likely to be affected by the ruling, such as large pharmaceuticals.

Many investors expect the requirement that uninsured Americans purchase health insurance to be overturned, "so people have had plenty of time to position their portfolios for that," said Foreman.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 93.32 points, or 0.74 percent, to 12,627.99. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> advanced 11.89 points, or 0.90 percent, to 1,331.88. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> added 21.26 points, or 0.74 percent, to 2,875.32. 

The market's rise came on light volume of 5.75 billion billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq. The daily average year-to-date is 6.84 billion. 

Shares of Vivus Inc and Orexigen Therapeutics Inc jumped following the FDA approval of Arena's obesity drug. The companies are also hoping to bring their medicines to market. Vivus shares were up 7.4 percent to $28.33 and Orexigen Therapeutics rose 20.3 percent to $4.92.

Some of Wall Street's top analysts published their research on Facebook Inc , and most are cautiously optimistic. Facebook shares fell 2.6 percent to $32.32 after gaining more than 20 percent in the prior two weeks.

Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by 2,354 to 654, while on the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners 1,766 to 706.

NYMEX - NEWYORK, June 27 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose on Wednesday as slower North Sea oil production due to an oil workers strike and supportive U.S. economic data countered concerns about the euro zone debt crisis.

Weekly government data showing U.S. crude oil and distillate stocks fell last week in the United States also supported crude prices.

CBOT SOYBEAN, June 27 (Reuters) - Chicago Board of Trade corn futures were higher on Wednesday as hot and dry weather threatened to slash U.S. crop production.

* Extremely hot weather is expected to move across the southern portion of the U.S. Midwest through the weekend, taking a toll on corn and soybean crops, an agricultural meteorologist said. "Temperatures will rise to the upper 90s (degrees Fahrenheit) to low 100s F from eastern Kansas, southeast Nebraska, Missouri, southern Iowa, southern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio," said Andy Karst, meteorologist for World Weather Inc.

* Karst said scorching temperatures up to 115 F were posted on Tuesday in western Plains States and the heat wave was moving east. There is the potential for showers in the northern Midwest late this week and again next week and some minimal showers were possible in the driest areas of the Midwest as well. But "definitely there will be more crop deterioration this week. There won't be enough rain to slow deterioration," he said.

* U.S. CIF basis bids for corn shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast fell on Wednesday under pressure from weak export demand and rising futures prices.  Interior cash corn basis bids were steady to lower as farmers sold some crop supplies, dealers said.

FCPO - SINGAPORE, June 27 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures edged down on Wednesday as investors bet a summit of European leaders later this week is unlikely to resolve the region's lingering debt crisis soon.

Losses were limited in a quiet trading session, as hot and dry weather in the United States crimped the soybean crop, fuelling expectations of tighter oilseed supply that may eventually lift palm oil prices.

"There's no new lead in terms of local sentiment, that's why the market is locked in a range of 3,000 to 3,050 ringgit. Immediate support is at 3,000 ringgit," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"The weather is going to have a strong influence on the palm oil market in the near term. Palm oil is supported by the dry weather in the U.S. especially because it's the planting season." 

Benchmark September palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.2 percent to close at 3,025 ringgit ($948) per tonne, after trading in the 3,004-3,043 ringgit range.

Traded volumes were thin at 17,235 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared with the usual 25,000 lots as traders were looking for further cues to enter the market.

On the technicals front, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao posted a bearish quarterly outlook, saying palm oil could fall to 2,390 ringgit over the next three months.

Demand remains healthy with Malaysian palm oil exports showing an uptrend for the first 25 days of the month. Traders expect the trend to continue on last-minute buying leading up to the Muslim fasting month starting in end-July.

Palm oil's steep discount to soybean oil also provided an upside for prices, especially as the drought in the U.S. Midwest threatened to limit the oilseed supply further.

Traders are also watching the U.S. Department of Agriculture's June acreage report for soybeans on Friday. 

Brent crude oil fell on Wednesday on mounting concerns that European leaders would fail to solve the region's intractable debt crisis at a key meeting this week, offsetting tighter North Sea oil supply. [O/R]    

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for July  delivery inched up 0.3 percent in late Asian trade. The most active January 2013 soyoil contract on Dalian commodity exchange closed 0.1 percent lower.     

REGIONAL EQUITY - BANGKOK, June 27 (Reuters) - Stocks in Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand rose to one-week closing high on Wednesday as buying interest picked up in large cap stocks and banking shares recently hit by falling appetite for riskier assets.

Singapore's Straits Times Index gained 1.3 percent, reversing four sessions of losses, Jakarta's Composite Index and Thai SET index both rose for a second session, adding 1.4 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively.

Domestic institutions were bullish on Thai stock market as growing domestic consumption boded well for the outlook of certain sectors such as consumer and banking, but some foreign funds remained cautious, said Viwat Techapoonphol, senior strategist at broker Tisco Securities.

Foreign investors continued to take money out of Thai stocks, with the outflows extending for the second month, in line with Indonesia but contrasting with inflows into the Philippines, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Thai stocks had net foreign selling of $430 million in the month to June 26, ahead of Indonesia's net foreign outflows of $272 million for the same period while the Philippines reported $160 million worth of foreign inflows. 

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK,  June 26 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks rose and the euro fell to its lowest level versus the U.S. dollar in over two weeks on Tuesday, as technical buying offset a near tripling in Spanish debt costs on doubts a European summit can ease the region's debt crisis.

Low expectations for the meeting in Brussels on Thursday and Friday helped drive Spanish short-term borrowing rates to their highest in more than six months when the country sold just over 3 billion euros ($3.8 billion) of three- and six-month debt.

In the United States, data pointed to a surprisingly strong April rise in home prices, boosting U.S. housing shares. The mildly encouraging figures on housing were mitigated by data signaling a deterioration in consumer confidence, which stoked concerns about slowing U.S. growth.

Anxiety over a global economic slowdown underpinned by the fiscal troubles in the euro zone led analysts to conclude any bounce in stock prices could be short-lived.

"This is a classic exhaustion rebound. The selling intensity was pretty high yesterday, and technically, we were due for a short-term rebound," said James Dailey, portfolio manager of TEAM Asset Strategy Fund in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

"But these gains are really unsustainable. I think we have entered the bear market cycle already, and these (gains) could disappear any minute."

Investors pared their safe-haven holdings in gold as well as U.S. and German government debt.

They bought Brent oil futures, which rose above $93 a barrel on a strike in Norway that threatened North Sea supply, expectations of falling U.S. crude inventory and rising tension over Syria. 

At the close, the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> edged up 32.47 points, or 0.26 percent, to 12,535.13. The S&P 500 Index gained 6.32 points, or 0.48 percent, to 1,320.04. The Nasdaq Composite rose 17.90 points, or 0.63 percent, to 2,854.06.


CBOT SOYBEAN, Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended lower as profit-taking and fund long liquidation halted a two-day,weather-driven rally, traders said.

* Most-active November soybeans unofficially fell 0.8 percent after setting a contract high at $14.38-3/4 per bushel. The contract on Monday burst through long-term chart resistance at $14.00 as traders fretted about stressful, dry U.S. weather.

* Funds hold a near record large net long position in CBOT soybeans, leaving the market vulnerable to occasional bouts of long liquidation.

* Meteorologists expect hot and dry conditions to persist in the U.S. Midwest next week, stressing corn and soybean plants. But the midday run of the computerized American weather model did indicate some rain. 

* Unlike corn, which faces an immediate threat to yield potential from crop stress, U.S. soybeans will not reach their key yield-determining phase until later this summer and may be able to recover from the current dry spell. 

* Trade expects USDA on Friday to raise its estimate of U.S. 2012 soybean acreage. The average estimate for U.S. soybean plantings among 19 analysts surveyed by Reuters was 75.5 million acres, up from USDA's March projection of 73.9 million.

* Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World raised its forecast of China's 2011/12 soybean imports to 57.9 million tonnes, up 1 million from last month. The figure would be up 5.6 million tonnes year-on-year. 

* Soymeal prices are likely to remain firm in coming months and tight global meal supplies after low South American soybean crops could open sudden export opportunities for Indian soymeal - Oil World.

FCPO - SINGAPORE, June 26 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures ended higher on Tuesday, supported by rising exports and concerns that drought in the United States could damage the soybean crop and limit global supplies of edible oils.

But gains were limited in a choppy trading session as investors turned sceptical ahead of a summit of European leaders later this week that looks unlikely to take concrete measures to solve the region's debt crisis.

"The market is trading in a tight range today, indicating traders were cautious and chose to stay on the sidelines ahead of the EU summit," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

Benchmark September palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange edged up 0.2 percent to close at 3,035 ringgit ($951) per tonne. Prices traded in a narrow range between 3,010 and 3,036 ringgit.

Traded volumes were thin at 16,908 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.

Malaysian palm oil exports grew 4.4 percent to 1.2 million tonnes in the first 25 days of the month from a month ago, said cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services, backed by higher shipments to China, India and Pakistan. 

Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance, said late on Monday that exports rose 8.8 percent, supporting views that demand is being helped by last-minute buying ahead of the Muslim fasting month starting in July.

Hot and dry weather in the United States continued to threaten to damage soybean crops and could possibly lead to a smaller supply of soybean oil, raising appeal of palm oil that is already trading at a steep discount.

Traders are also eyeing the U.S. Department of Agriculture's June acreage report for soybeans on Friday. The average soy estimate in a Reuters survey was 2.2 percent higher than USDA's March forecast.

Oil climbed towards $92 per barrel on Tuesday as the prospect of a decline in U.S. crude stockpiles offset concern that a meeting of European leaders would fail to resolve the region's debt crisis. 

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for July delivery lost 0.5 percent. 

The most active January 2013 soyoil contract on Dalian commodity exchange also lost 0.8 percent, after touching a more than one-month high the previous day. Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1012 GMT 

REGIONAL EQUITY - BANGKOK, June 26 (Reuters) - Stocks in Thailand and Indonesia eked out small gains on Tuesday after three straight losing sessions as investors bought recently beaten down energy-linked shares buoyed by a rebound in oil prices.

Thai SET index edged up 0.32 percent, led by the energy subindex which advanced 0.17 percent. Energy shares were down 1.7 percent in 2012 due to weak appetite for riskier assets and its exposure to weak global economy.

Jakarta's Composite Index rose 0.6 percent, with commodities shares contributing the most to the gains. Harum Energy Tbk rose 4.6 percent, while Adaro Energy jumped 4.5 percent.

Others in the region ended mixed. The Philippine main index extended its gains for a third session, adding 0.5 percent. Vietnam fell for a fourth session, ending 1.2 percent lower at its lowest close in three weeks. 

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, June 25 (Reuters) - Global stock indexes and the euro sank on Monday on doubts that a European summit this week would move any closer to solving the region's festering debt crisis, a pessimistic outlook that spa rked a bid for safe-haven assets.

The euro fell broadly on investor skepticism that the meeting of European Union leaders on Thursday and Friday will produce substantive measures to tackle the debt crisis, now in its third year and buffeting Spain, the euro zone's fourth-largest economy.

Spanish and Italian bond yields rose in a sign of investor skittishness, while the dollar and U.S. government debt prices ga ined as investors sought safety.

Decliners beat advancers by a ratio of about 3 to 1 on both the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq in light trade.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 138.12 points, or 1.09 percent, to close at 12,502.66. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 21.30 points, or 1.60 percent, to finish at 1,313.72. The Nasdaq Composite Index  slid 56.26 points, or 1.95 percent, to end at 2,836.16.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, June 25 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell back on Monday as Tropical Storm Debby, the first named storm of this Atlantic hurricane season, missed the Gulf of Mexico's production-rich areas and hopes faded that an EU summit this week will find durable solutions to the region's  debt crisis. 

CBOT SOYBEAN, June 25 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended higher, with deferred contracts leading the way up as dry weather and rising temperatures threatened U.S. yield potential.    

* Most-active November soybeans broke through major chart resistance at $14.00 per bushel, its previous contract high, to set a new top at $14.37. September 2012, January and August 2013 soybeans also set contract highs.

* Spot July soybeans reached $14.91-1/4, the highest level on a continuous price chart since May 2. 

* Soymeal and soyoil futures also rose, with deferred contracts leading the advances. Soymeal futures set contract highs in most months other than spot July.

* A high pressure ridge hovering over the Rocky Mountains is expected to push east across the Midwest and Delta later this week through next week, bringing the hottest days of the season to the Midwest. Highs in Chicago highs could reach 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) on Thursday.

* Soybeans pared gains slightly after updated computerized forecasting models indicated good rains could move through the eastern Midwest by early next week, but forecasters were skeptical of the changes. 

* USDA confirmed sales of 120,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in 2012/13. 
    
* Analysts surveyed by Reuters expected USDA in its weekly crop progress report later on Monday to show 53 percent of the U.S. soybean crop rated in good to excellent condition, down
from 56 percent a week earlier. 

* USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in thelatest week at 9.182 million bushels, below trade estimates for 12 million to 14 million bushels. 

* CFTC's weekly supplemental report on Friday showed large speculators expanded their net long position in CBOT soybeans by 4,235 contracts as of June 19, to 182,294 contracts.

FCPO - SINGAPORE, June 25 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures closed higher on Monday on hopes demand for the tropical oil would get a boost as dry weather in the United States curbs supply of competing soybean oil.

Palm oil futures rose close to 4 percent last week on U.S. weather woes, and prices sharply extended those gains on Monday on concerns that the drought could be worse than expected.

Rising exports ahead of the Muslim fasting month Ramadan that begins in end-July also added to the bullish mood. "The dry weather is lending support. Demand should also be able to stay healthy because of last-minute purchase ahead of Ramadan," said Alan Lim Seong Chun, research analyst with Malaysia's Kenanga Investment Bank.

"Also, there will be a summit in Europe this week. Since the general equities markets have gone down quite a bit, the market expects the Europe leaders to make some decisions to keep the economy going. These are conditions for further stimulus, and they will be beneficial for all commodities including palm oil."

Benchmark September palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange jumped 2.6 percent to close at 3,030 ringgit ($948) per tonne, after hitting a high of 3,059 ringgit earlier in the session. 

Traded volumes stood at 26,177 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Malaysian palm oil exports grew 4.4 percent to 1.2 million tonnes in the first 25 days of the month from a month ago, said cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services, backed by higher shipment to China, India and Pakistan.

Another cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance will delay the data release palm oil exports to Tuesday, an official said.  

Traders cited fears that dry weather would impede the planting of the last of the U.S. soybean crop, including so-called "double-crop" soybeans that are planted on recently harvested winter wheat fields. 

Unfavourable weather that could hurt soybean crop may lead to a smaller supply of soybean oil, shifting demand to thecheaper refined palm oil.

Brent crude futures hovered around $90 a barrel on Monday as concerns about faltering global growth and Europe's debt crisis hit investor confidence. 

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for July delivery jumped 2.1 percent, lending support to palm oil prices.

The most active January 2013 soyoil contract on Dalian commodity exchange also rose 1 percent after resuming trading after a holiday. Prices touched a new high at 9,620 yuan per tonne, a level last seen since May 14.

REGIONAL EQUITY, BANGKOK, June 25 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets ended mostly lower on Monday, after a range-bound session, with Philippine shares bucking the trend as large cap stocks such as Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co  rose on hopes of better earnings.

The Philippine benchmark stock index <.PSI> rose 0.9 percent to its highest close in six weeks, led by a 4.9 percent gain by top telecoms firm PLDT, which was also the most actively traded.

The outlook for Philippine companies' earnings was attractive, including telecoms, conglomerates and power firms,said Oliver Plana, head of sales at AsiaSec Equities Inc in Manila.

"The domestic market increasingly got good foreign buying interest. It is because of good macro numbers and the profit expectation has gone up," he said.

Overall, the emerging region's investors remained wary of persistent fears about Europe's debt crisis and fresh concerns about global economic growth. Malaysia <.KLSE> ended flat,climbing at one point to an intraday record high of 1,611.50. 

Monday, June 25, 2012

Trader's highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, June 22 (Reuters) - Oil bounced from 18-month lows o n F riday as investors shifted their focus to efforts to resolve Europe's debt crisis, while U.S. stocks rebounded from the second-worst decline of the year.

The euro firmed against the dollar after the European Central Bank said it would accept lower-quality assets as collateral in a move to aid the region's shaky banks.

Investors worry that Europe's debt crisis is adding to the slowdown in global economic growth, especially after a spate of data on Th ursday showing weakness in global manufacturing. European stocks ended lower for the day after data showed a drop in German business sentiment.

The leaders of Germany, France, Italy and Spain agreed on F riday on a 130 billion euro ($156 billion) package to revive economic growth in Europe but split over issuing joint bonds to combat the euro zone's debt crisis.
 
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 67.21 points, or 0.53 percent, at 12,640.78. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was up 9.51 points, or 0.72 percent, at 1,335.02. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 33.33 points, or 1.17 percent, at 2,892.42.
 
NYMEX- NEW YORK, June 22 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended up nearly 2 percent on Friday, rebounding from a 4 percent loss in the previous session and on short-covering as a potential storm threatened to disrupt oil production in the Gulf of Mexico.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended higher on Friday on worries about tight supplies of old-crop U.S. soybeans and hot and dry weather in the U.S. Midwest threatening new-crop prospects, traders said.

Market pared gains toward the close on profit-taking; front-month soybeans unofficially ended the week up 4.8 percent.

Gains also limited after the midday run of a computerized U.S.-based weather forecasting model indicated wetter and cooler conditions in the six- to 10 and 11- to 15-day periods.

CBOT July options expired at the close of pit trading at 1:15 p.m. CDT (1815 GMT).

Soymeal lost ground against soyoil as meal/oil spreads unwound; soymeal came under pressure in the final five minutes of open-outcry trade.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, June 22 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures inched down on Friday, as investors took a more cautious stance on weak economic data from the United States and China, worrying that slowing global growth could hurt commodity demand.

U.S. factory growth registered its slowest pace in 11 months in June and Chinese manufacturing contracted for an eighth month running. Shrinking business activity across the euro zone and a downgrade to the credit ratings of 15 of the world's biggest banks by ratings agency Moody's also added to the gloom.
But palm oil still ended the week 3.7 percent higher on earlier rallies this week as dry weather in the U.S. threatened to tighten global oilseed supplies.

"We are seeing a tug of war. On one hand we have good fundamentals, on the other hand we have macroeconomic factors that are a bit bearish," said James Ratnam, an analyst with TA Securities in Malaysia.

"Festive demand is still quite strong but traders are worried that if the economy gets really bad, demand will suffer eventually."

Benchmark September palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 1.6 percent to close at 2,953 ringgit ($928) per tonne. Prices rose as high as 3,062 ringgit on Thursday, a level unseen since June 1.

Traded volumes stood at 26,845 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly higher than the usual 25,000 lots on position squaring ahead of the weekend.

REGIONAL EQUITY- June 22 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets ended weaker on Friday as fears over weaker global economic growth hit investor appetite for risky assets.

U.S manufacturing grew in June at its slowest pace in 11 months, an industry survey showed on Thursday, and data showed the euro zone's private sector shrinking at its fastest pace in three years this month, while Chinese manufacturing contracted for an eighth straight month.

Malaysia <.KLSE> edged up 0.1 with a$22.07 million inflow, extending net foreign buying to $79 million in the last four sessions.

Friday, June 22, 2012

RTRS-Cropcast cuts US corn, soy estimates due to dryness

CHICAGO, June 21 (Reuters) - Cropcast on Thursday cut its forecast for the 2012 U.S. corn yield by 3.1 percent from its previous prediction and cut its U.S. soybean crop yield estimate nearly 4.0 percent due to continued dryness across the Midwest crop belt.

The central and southern Midwest, the central Plains and northern Mississippi Delta are the driest, Cropcast said. The area needs rain soon as the bulk of the U.S. corn crop is expected to pollinate starting next week and continue through the first two weeks of July.

"From here on out I think it is going to be an issue of dryness versus heat that is going to knock the yields down," said Don Keeney, senior agricultural meteorologist with Cropcast. "If the dry forecast holds for the next couple weeks, those forecasts will most likely come down."

Cropcast is a division of MDA EarthSat Weather and forecast the average U.S. corn yield at 158.6 bushels per acre, down from its previous estimate of 163.7 and USDA's estimate of 166.

The weather agency reduced its soybean yield estimate to 42.4 bps, from its previous forecast of 44.1 and USDA's outlook of 43.9.

Based on its current yield estimates, Cropcast forecast the U.S. corn crop at 13.971 billion bushels and soybean at 3.145 billion bushels.

USDA is currently estimating this year's U.S. corn crop at a record large 14.790 billion bushels and soybean output at 3.205 billion bushels.

RTRS-Indonesia palm output up 7 pct in 2012

JAKARTA, June 21 (Reuters) - Palm oil production in the world's top producer Indonesia will increase by at least 7 percent this year, boosted by maturing plantation areas producing higher yields, an industry official said on Thursday.


This year palm oil output from Southeast Asia's largest economy will be between 23 million and 24 million tonnes, compared to 22.5 million tonnes in 2011, Rosediana Suharto, executive chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Commission (IPOC), told Reuters in an interview.

"Maybe more than 23 million," said Suharto, who also expects palm plantation areas to rise by 300,000 hectares in 2012, from 8.2 million hectares last year. "Our immature (area) is still quite high ... expansion doesn't give you fruit straight away."

Earlier this year, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association forecast that palm production would hit 25 million tonnes this year, while the Agriculture Ministry saw production at 25.7 million tonnes. [ID:nL3E8C43TJ] [ID:nL3E8C933G]

"Too dry," said Suharto, when asked about conditions on palm plantations during the first half of the year. "Last year the rain fall was a bit low ... we predict that this year will be much lower.

"People don't normally open plantations when there is no rainfall because small plantings cannot grow without rain."

The IPOC aims to develop the palm oil industry and gives policy and regulatory recommendations to the Indonesian government.



Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, June 21 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks posted the worst day in three weeks on Thursday on mounting evidence that slowing manufacturing growth worldwide threatened corporate profits.

Shares of energy and materials companies led declines as commodity prices fell. U.S. crude futures slipped below $80 a barrel for the first time since October and the S&P energy sector index <.GSPE> lost 4 percent. Investors said weak overseas demand was responsible for the decline in those industries.

Stocks' slide was accelerated by a bearish call from Goldman Sachs, which recommended clients build short positions in the broad S&P 500 index on expectations of more economic weakness. [ID:nL1E8HLESN]

"We are recommending a short position in the S&P 500 index with a target of 1,285," (roughly 5 percent below current levels), Goldman Sachs said in a note.

Business activity across the euro zone shrank for a fifth straight month in June and Chinese manufacturing contracted, while weaker overseas demand slowed growth by U.S. factories. [ID:nL1E8HL9AU]

"While we've seen only two of many regional manufacturing surveys for June, there is a clear deterioration taking place, with only the degree being the broad issue," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co in New York.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 251.35 points, or 1.96 percent, at 12,573.04. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 30.19 points, or 2.23 percent, at 1,325.50. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 71.36 points, or 2.44 percent, at 2,859.09.

"The market was extremely overbought coming into this week, and the news gave it an excuse to sell off," said Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James Financial in St. Petersburg, Florida.

Softening data globally lifted hopes of central bank action to support the economy. The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday it would extend one monetary stimulus program and said it was ready to do more to help economic growth if necessary.

After the bell, Moody's Investors Service cut the credit ratings of 15 of the world's biggest banks in a highly anticipated move that was part of a broad review of major financial institutions. [ID:nL1E8HCCPK]

Among the moves, Moody's cut JPMorgan Chase & Co's long-term senior debt to A2 from Aa3 and assigned it a negative outlook negative. It also cut Morgan Stanley's long-term senior unsecured debt to Baa1 from A2 and also assigned it a negative outlook.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, June 21 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures slumped nearly 4 percent on Thursday to end at an eight-month low as dreary economic data from China, the United States and the euro zone and abundant crude oil supply extended the week's sell-off.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell by the close of pit trading, halting a three-day rally in the front contract, as profit-taking and concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth overshadowed worries about dry weather threatening U.S. crop prospects.

* Stocks on major markets fell and crude oil prices slumped $2 a barrel after data showed Chinese, European and U.S. manufacturing activity slowing further, a day after the Federal Reserve extended its monetary stimulus program. [MKTS/GLOB]

* Nearby July soybeans traded higher at times on expectations of fresh export demand for old-crop U.S. soybeans and spillover support from soymeal futures, which rose on strong export sales.

* USDA reported export sales of U.S. soymeal in the latest week at 282,000 tonnes, well above trade expectations for 50,000 to 150,000 tonnes.

* USDA reported weekly sales of U.S. soybeans at 608,000 tonnes, below a range of trade estimates for 700,000 to 900,000 tonnes. Top buyer China accounted for 434,000 tonnes for 2012/13 delivery, but canceled 83,100 tonnes for 2011/12 delivery. [ID:nIGB21404A]

* USDA reported weekly export sales of U.S. soyoil at 20,400 tonnes, above trade expectations for 5,000 to 15,000 tonnes.

* Cropcast, a private weather service, lowered its U.S. 2012 soybean crop yield estimate to 42.4 bushels per acre, from its previous forecast of 44.1 and USDA's outlook of 43.9. [ID:nL1E8HLB3G]

* Traders eyeing moderate open interest the $14.40 and $14.50 strikes in soybeans ahead of July options expiration at 1:15 p.m. CDT (1815 GMT) on Friday.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, June 21 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures edged lower on Thursday as traders booked profits from rallies earlier in the week, while sentiment also turned cautious on weak economic data and disappointing stimulus measures by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Palm oil prices hit a three-week high after the midday break on concerns that dry weather in the United States could tighten global oilseeds supply, but the gain could not be sustained as bleak data showing a slowdown in Chinese and European factory activity took centrestage. [ID:nL3E8HL0Z9][ID:nL5E8HKER8]

The move by the Fed to extend its programme of selling short-term securities and buying longer-dated ones disappointed investors who had hoped for a third round of quantitative easing, weighing on financial markets across the board. [ID:nL1E8HKEKN]

Benchmark September palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange slipped 1.4 percent to close at 3,000 ringgit ($945) per tonne. Prices went as high as 3,062 ringgit, a level unseen since June 1.

Traded volumes stood at 36,568 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 lots as activities picked up after the midday break.

Palm oil prices are however on track for a more than 5 percent gain this week, after three straight weeks of losses.

"The Greek election brought in some funds buying," said a trader with a domestic commodities brokerage in Malaysia, referring to gains in palm oil earlier this week on optimism stemming from the victory of pro-bailout parties in Greece.

"However the surge also brought in demand destruction and palm olein prices above $990 saw very few takers."

Rising exports confirmed stronger demand for the tropical oil on last-minute buying ahead of the Muslim fasting month thatstarts in late July.

Malaysian palm oil exports grew 15 percent to above 990,000 tonnes in the first 20 days of the month, said cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance. [PALM/ITS] [PALM/SGS]

Adding to the supportive factors for palm oil was the dry weather in the United States as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said unfavourable weather had damaged soybean crop quality.

A lower soybean crop to be crushed into soybean oil could shift more demand to the cheaper refined palm oil.

REGIONAL EQUITY- June 21 (Reuters) - All Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Thursday, mostly led by commodities shares, on renewed global growth concerns after Chinese factory activity shrank for the eighth straight month.

Though the U.S. central bank extended its programme of selling short-term securities and buying longer-dated ones as expected, it did not signal a more aggressive third round of quantitative easing, further disappointing some investors. [ID:nL1E8HKEKN]

A survey of private sector activity in China compiled by HSBC showed its giant factory sector had shrunk for an eighth straight month in June on weaker demand for exports.

Thailand <.SETI> fell 1.2 percent led by energy shares, Singapore <.FTSTI> ended 0.9 percent weaker, dragged down by a 5.4 percent fall in commodities firm Olam International Ltd , and the Philippines <.PSI> closed 0.7 percent down.

Indonesia <.JKSE> lost 1.2 percent, though it saw $2.5 million of foreign inflow, while Malaysia <.KLSE> edged down 0.2 percent despite enjoying $31.99 million of net foreign buying on Thursday.

"The market was following the rest of the region with shares related to oil and coal coming down," said Harry Su, head of research at Jakarta-based brokerage Bahana Securities, referring to Indonesian market.

"We have been downgrading the prices of coal-related shares and that might have knock-on effect on the other shares as well."

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, June 20 (Reuters) - Major stock indexes ended a choppy trading session flat to slightly lower on Wednesday w hile Treasuries trimmed losses after the Federal Reserve extended monetary stimulus to keep the U.S. economic recovery from stalling.

Analysts said investors had expected the U.S. central bank to extend its bond-buying program - dubbed "Operation Twist" - but noted some were disappointed that it stopped short of more aggressive measures to boost growth in the face of slower U.S. hiring and a festering European debt crisis. [ID:nL1E8HJKSF]

In Operation Twist, which was to end this month, the Fed sells short-term debt it holds to buy longer-term bonds in hopes of lowering long-term borrowing costs.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that policymakers were ready and able to do more if needed, but offered few specifics.

"The most dovish investors were looking for something a little more concrete about the path to more easing, but so far, Bernanke has sounded non-committal," Standard Chartered currency strategist Mike Moran said. "He's leaving the door ajar, but that's still a slight disappointment for some."

John Canally, investment strategist and economist at LPL Financial, said "there were a lot of guys out there with the finger on the 'sell' button unless they saw balance-sheet expansion."

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dipped 12.94 points, or 0.10 percent, to 12,824.39 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> edged down 2.29 points, or 0.17 percent, to 1,355.69. But the Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> inched up 0.69 of a point, or 0.02 percent, to 2,930.45.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, June 20 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended nearly 3 percent lower on Wednesday as domestic crude stockpiles unexpectedly rose last week while the Federal Reserve's extension of a program to stimulate the economy disappointed investors.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed higher for
a third straight day on Wednesday on tightening U.S. supplies and worries about dry weather threatening the yield potential of the 2012 crop, traders said.

* Most-active November soybeans hit an intraday high of $13.95-3/4 per bushel, approaching its contract high at $14.00, a key resistance level.

* Spot July supported by sales of old-crop U.S. soybeans announced Tuesday, a reminder that U.S. soy remains competitive on the world market following crop losses in South America.

* Rain in southern Brazil is causing delays at the country's largest agricultural commodities ports, Santos and Paranagua, where more than 250 vessels are waiting to unload or load fertilizers, grains, sugar and other cargoes. [ID:nL1E8HK0FI]

* Dry weather is expected to keep stress on U.S. Midwest corn and soy crops for at least the next two weeks. "There's not much change in the forecasts, still not much rain for the next couple of weeks in the dry areas such as Indiana and southern Illinois," said Andy Karst, meteorologist for World Weather Inc.

* Karst said plentiful rains fell in the north and northwest Midwest in the last day but the central and southeast remained too dry. Temperatures will be a little cooler beginning mid-week, with highs in the 80s Fahrenheit rather than the 90s.

* The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved the Chicago Board of Trade's plan to extend open-outcry grain trading by 45 minutes a day until 2 p.m. CDT, starting Monday. [ID:nL1E8HK8Q9]

FCPO- SINGAPORE, June 20 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures hit their highest in almost three weeks on Wednesday, as investors bet on higher demand for palm oil after hot and dry U.S. weather threatened to curb the soy crop available for crushing into edible oil.

Market players were also optimistic ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting later in the day, hoping for a new round of monetary stimulus that could boost global growth and commodity demand. [MKTS/GLOB]

A 15-percent jump in Malaysian palm oil exports for the June 1-20 period from a month ago confirmed a shift of orders to the tropical oil and last-minute buying ahead of the Muslim month of fasting called Ramadan that starts in late July.

Palm oil prices crossed above the 3,000-ringgit mark for the first time since June 11, signalling traders were less cautious after the Greece elections helped ease concerns over the euro zone debt crisis.

"Demand is expected to grow as we are moving into the Ramadan month," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"There's an understanding that the earlier selldown was due to the uncertainty in Europe. The crisis is still there but it's not as bad compared to before the Greece elections."

Benchmark September palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange jumped 3.2 percent to close at 3,041 ringgit ($964) per tonne, after going as high as 3,058 ringgit, a level unseen since June 1.

Traded volumes stood at 52,086 lots of 25 tonnes each, more than double the usual 25,000 lots.

On the technicals front, palm oil will test resistance at 3,024 ringgit, a break above which will open the way towards 3,140 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. [ID:nL3E8HK1YG]

Malaysian palm oil exports grew to 991,917 tonnes in the first 20 days of the month, said cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services. [PALM/ITS]

Another cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance also reported a 15 percent increase in exports to 996,662 tonnes for the same period. [PALM/SGS]

Dry weather in the United States is in focus as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said unfavourable weather had damaged soybean crop quality.

A lower soybean crop could lead to a smaller supply of soybean oil, shifting demand to the cheaper refined palm oil.

REGIONAL EQUITY- June 20 (Reuters) - All Southeast Asian stock markets gained on Wednesday for a third straight day as hopes for new monetary stimulus by major central banks and the U.S. Federal Reserve helped boost investor appetite for risky assets.

Investors hope that Europe's worsening debt crisis and faltering global growth will prompt a new round of monetary stimulus. [ID:nL1E8HJKSF]

"Everybody is hopeful of major central banks will be looking for coordinated effort," to avert faltering global growth amid the lingering euro zone debt crisis," said Song Seng Wun, an economist at CIMB, based in Singapore.

Malaysia <.KLSE> gained 0.6 percent in heavy trading volume to 1,604.39 points, near its record high of 1,609.33 hit on April 3. There was a net foreign inflow of $12.07 million.

Indonesia <.JKSE>, the region's worst performing stock market this year, rose 1.6 percent to a four-week high even though there was net foreign selling of $7.7 million. The Philippines <.PSI> gained 1.3 percent to its highest since May 11 while Singapore <.FTSTI> added 0.5 percent to hit a five-week high.

Thailand <.SETI> edged up 0.01 percent to its highest since May 17 and Vietnam <.VNI> added 0.4 percent.

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

RTRS-Oil World sees falling U.S. soybean inventories

HAMBURG, June 19 (Reuters) - Strong export demand is set to sharply reduce U.S. soybean inventories up to August while South American stocks are already being cut, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

Oil World has cut its forecast of U.S. Aug. 31 soybean inventories to 4.2 million tonnes from 4.6 million tonnes the analyst estimated in May and down from 5.85 million tonnes of U.S. stocks on Aug. 31, 2011.

"The global demand is now increasingly switching to the U.S., cutting U.S. stocks to bare minimum levels as of end-Aug. 2012," Oil World said. "The forthcoming huge increase in U.S. exports of soybeans and meal may become a logistical nightmare in the next 6-7 months."

Oil World forecasts that U.S. soybean exports will rise by almost 40 percent in coming months as global demand moves to the U.S. after poor soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina. [ID:nL5E8H4D99]

"Considerably smaller South American supplies and larger than expected world import requirements raised the demand for U.S. soybeans and products in May," Oil World said. "This trend is going to accelerate from June onward, resulting in significant year-on-year increases in U.S. soybean disposals."

Meanwhile, South American soybean stocks are also being run down, it said.

In South America, this year's poor crop coupled with strong export demand has cut soybean inventories sharply, Oil World estimates.

June 1 soybean stocks in the five main regional exporters Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia and Uruguay fell to 72.36 million tonnes from 96.09 million tonnes on June 1, 2011, it estimates. Record Chinese purchases contributed to the fall, it said.

Argentina's June 1 soybean stocks fell to 31.34 million tonnes from 40.32 million tonnes on June 1, 2011, it estimates. Brazil's stocks fell to 36.72 million tonnes from 48.90 million, it said.