HAMBURG, June 19 (Reuters) - Strong export demand is set to sharply reduce U.S. soybean inventories up to August while South American stocks are already being cut, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
Oil World has cut its forecast of U.S. Aug. 31 soybean inventories to 4.2 million tonnes from 4.6 million tonnes the analyst estimated in May and down from 5.85 million tonnes of U.S. stocks on Aug. 31, 2011.
"The global demand is now increasingly switching to the U.S., cutting U.S. stocks to bare minimum levels as of end-Aug. 2012," Oil World said. "The forthcoming huge increase in U.S. exports of soybeans and meal may become a logistical nightmare in the next 6-7 months."
Oil World forecasts that U.S. soybean exports will rise by almost 40 percent in coming months as global demand moves to the U.S. after poor soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina. [ID:nL5E8H4D99]
"Considerably smaller South American supplies and larger than expected world import requirements raised the demand for U.S. soybeans and products in May," Oil World said. "This trend is going to accelerate from June onward, resulting in significant year-on-year increases in U.S. soybean disposals."
Meanwhile, South American soybean stocks are also being run down, it said.
In South America, this year's poor crop coupled with strong export demand has cut soybean inventories sharply, Oil World estimates.
June 1 soybean stocks in the five main regional exporters Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia and Uruguay fell to 72.36 million tonnes from 96.09 million tonnes on June 1, 2011, it estimates. Record Chinese purchases contributed to the fall, it said.
Argentina's June 1 soybean stocks fell to 31.34 million tonnes from 40.32 million tonnes on June 1, 2011, it estimates. Brazil's stocks fell to 36.72 million tonnes from 48.90 million, it said.
