Thursday, March 8, 2012

RTRS-Brazil's No. 3 soy state cuts forecast by mln T due drought

SAO PAULO, March 7 (Reuters) - Brazil's third largest soy producing state of Rio Grande do Sul will harvest a crop of 7.1 million tonnes this season, down from the 8 million forecast previously, the state agriculture agency projected on Wednesday.

The southernmost state has been one of the worst hit by drought that has withered crops in the region, including Paraguay and Argentina.

This has sparked concerns of rising global food prices because the region produces more than half the world's trade in soybeans, an important source of protein for humans and livestock.

Brazil's federal crop supply agency Conab is due to release its sixth forecast of the national grains crop on Thursday morning. Many expected it would revise downward its numbers for national output of soybeans.

Brazil harvested a record 75.3 million tonnes last year.

But below-normal rainfall from November into January has slashed output to just over 69.2 million tonnes in Conab's February forecast.

RTRS- INDIA'S 2011/12 REFINED PALM OIL IMPORTS COULD MORE THAN DOUBLE TO 2.3-2.4 MLN TONNES - LEADING TRADER

NEW DELHI, March 7 (Reuters) - India's refined palm oil imports could more than double in the year to Oct. 31, 2012 and rise to 2.4 million tonnes as a result of an export tax change by leading producer Indonesia, a leading trader and edible oils industry expert said on Wednesday.

Total edible oil imports will increase 13.1 percent to 9.5 million tonnes in 2011/12, as rapeseed output drops while demand rises, Govindbhai G. Patel, managing partner of GG Patel & Nikhil Research Co., told Reuters.

"The bulk of the imports will be palm oils with the share of the refined variant set to double this year," Patel said in a telephone interview from Kuala Lumpur.

"The lower Indonesian export tax will push up imports of refined palm olein to 2.3-2.4 million tonnes in 2011/12."

India is the world's biggest buyer of vegetable oil, importing mainly palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia and a small quantity of soyoil from Brazil and Argentina.

India imported 1.08 million tonnes of refined palm oil in 2010/11.

Demand for edible oils is rising at around 3-4 percent per year, faster than population growth, as increased incomes in an economy growing at around seven percent encourage people to indulge in high-calorie, fried foods.

RTRS- WRAPUP 1-Palm oil prices to shine in 2012; Indonesia export tax in focus

KUALA LUMPUR, March 7 (Reuters) - Strong Asian demand chasing limited edible oil supply may boost palm oil prices that have gained six percent in February, reflecting the appeal of food commodities at a time of shaky global growth and rising geopolitical tension.

Analysts and traders at an industry meeting in Kuala Lumpur are shifting their focus to demand from top buyers India and China with limited palm oil output growth in Southeast Asia helping a little to offset the shortfall in soyoil after drought in South America withered crops.

But they warned of greater volatility in Bursa Malaysia futures as top palm oil producer Indonesia's move to slash export taxes for the refined grade will shift demand away from second biggest supplier Malaysia and boost stock levels.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - U.S. and European stocks advanced on Wednesday after promising U.S. jobs data, and the euro rebounded after hitting a three-week low on renewed optimism that Greek will complete its debt restructuring after major banks and pension funds pledged their support.

Completion of the debt restructuring is crucial for Greece to secure 130 billion euros in international rescue funds needed so it can avert a chaotic default.

Some traders are hoping Greece will clinch a debt restructuring before Thursday's deadline. This outlook helped revive appetite for stocks, oil and gold and kept a lid on safe-haven demand for U.S. and German government debt.

A report from payrolls processor ADP showing that U.S. private-sector hiring increased more than expected in February helped cement views that the U.S. economy is gaining traction.

The report came two days ahead of the government's more comprehensive monthly report on the labor market.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> closed up 78.18 points, or 0.61 percent, at 12,837.33. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> ended up 9.27 points, or 0.69 percent, at 1,352.63. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> finished up 25.37 points, or 0.87 percent, at 2,935.69.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose on Wednesday on optimism that Greece will avoid default through a pending debt restructuring, which strengthened the euro and weakened the dollar, and on supportive private sector jobs data.

Major banks and pension funds supported Greece's bond swap offer to private creditors, improving chances the deal will be implemented and clear the way for a bailout package to avert an immediate default by Greece on its debt.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, April crude rose $1.46, or 1.39 percent, to settle at $106.16 a barrel. The intraday low was $104.35 and prices reached $106.55 in post-settlement trading.

CBOT SOYBEANS- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell in sympathy with technical and fund-driven selling in corn and wheat ahead of a monthly U.S. government crop report later this week, traders said.

Spot soybeans hit a fresh 5-1/2 month high in overnight trade at $13.32-1/4 before retreating.

Market underpinned by uncertainty about the size of the South American soy crop. Brazil's No. 3 soy producing state of Rio Grande do Sul will harvest a crop of 7.1 million tonnes this season, down from the 8 million forecast previously, the state
agriculture agency projected.

U.S. dollar edged lower, typically a bullish signal for dollar-backed grains and oilseeds, but concern about the global economy, euro zone debt and the pace of growth in China hung over the soy market.

FCPO- KUALA LUMPUR, March 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures edged up on Wednesday, as bullish price outlook from leading analysts at a key conference lifted investor sentiment and reversed earlier losses.

Leading analyst Dorab Mistry said prices would hit 4,000 ringgit by the end of June due to low palm oil output cycle, strong demand from India in peak summer months and stocking by Muslim countries ahead of the fasting month. [ID:nL4E8E73NX]

"Markets were pathetically quiet ahead of the analysts' price forecasts, and prices were stuck within tight range. However, bullish views are expected and that will likely put sellers on hold," said a dealer with a foreign commodities
brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.

Benchmark May palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.7 percent to close at 3,266 ringgit ($1,080) per tonne. The benchmark futures are trading 2.8 percent higher this year. Traded volumes picked up after the midday break, standing at 22,106 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000
lots.

Top analyst James Fry presented a few scenarios based on crude oil price and its impact on palm oil futures, given the edible oil is being increasingly used as a feedstock for biofuels.

REGIONAL EQUITY- March 7 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks fell on Wednesday with Singapore hitting a one-month low as Asian investors continued to worry over slowing global growth.

With global stock markets under pressure and as the effects of central bank easing wear off, market players are turning to corporate earnings for signs of whether the year-to-date rally in equities can be sustained.

Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> fell 0.6 percent, extending its losses this month to 2.5 percent. Indonesia's benchmark <.JKSE> fell 0.6 percent while last year's top performer in the Philippines <.PSEI> was down 0.9 percent.

Malaysia <.KLSE> fell 0.9 percent. Thailand's SET index <.SETI>, hovering near a 16-year high, was closed for a public holiday.

Of the 175 Singapore stocks tracked by Thomson Reuters Starmine, about 83 percent have reported 2011 earnings and just under half of those have missed analyst expectations.

The liquidity-driven rally had pushed valuations back to normal levels, Chua said, removing a factor underpinning stock prices so far this year.

Singapore's Straits Times index currently trades at about 13.5 times forward 12-month earnings forecasts, up from 12 times last December, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.