Friday, December 28, 2012

Trader's Highlight


DJI - NEW YORK, Dec 27 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell more than 1 percent on Thursday after comments from U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid that the United States may be poised to go off the "fiscal cliff," while the yen hit a two-year low on expectations of aggressive monetary stimulus.

Democrat Reid criticized Republicans for refusing to go along with any tax increases as part of a U.S. budget remedy and said the economy seemed to be heading over the fiscal cliff of impending tax hikes and spending cuts.

Economists warn that the $600 billion in higher taxes and spending cuts set to kick in from January could push the world's largest economy into recession, dragging other countries with it.
For weeks, markets have been driven by any new information on the status of the fiscal cliff talks. All three major U.S. stock indexes fell more than 1 percent after Reid's comments and world stocks also were driven lower.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 132.98 points, or 1.01 percent, at 12,981.61. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 15.23 points, or 1.07 percent, at 1,404.60. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 31.96 points, or 1.07 percent, at 2,958.19.

Shares of U.S. retailers fell for a second day following the Christmas holiday. The Morgan Stanley retail index was down 1.4 percent while the SPDR S&P Retail Trust lost 1.1 percent.

The MSCI global index was last down 0.4 percent, while European shares ended down 0.04 percent.
Frank Lesh, a futures analyst and broker at Futurepath Trading in Chicago, said his clients have been delaying trading due to uncertainty about the negotiations' outcome, making the year-end period quieter than usual.

"With the added drama in Washington, we have got even more people sidelined," he said. "No one knows how this turns out or how the markets are going to react to it."
U.S. President Barack Obama is traveling back to Washington on Thursday, cutting short his holiday to try to get a budget deal with Republican lawmakers.

EURO DIPS, YEN SLUMPS

The dollar rose to 85.92 yen, its highest since August 2010. It was last up 0.4 percent on the day at 85.91 yen with option barriers cited at 86 yen and stop-loss buy orders above 86.10 yen.
Investors accelerated their yen sales after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said his newly formed government would pursue a bold monetary policy, a flexible fiscal policy and a growth strategy to encourage private investment.

The yen has fallen roughly 10.5 percent versus the dollar in 2012, its biggest annual drop since 2005. At the same time, Japan's benchmark Nikkei is now up 22 percent for the year.
"Yen weakness, based on expectations that the new Japanese government will succeed in driving the dollar to 90 yen with a combination of more aggressive monetary and fiscal policy, is offering support to other currencies," said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

The euro traded at $1.3216, down slightly for the day and below an eight-month high of $1.3308 hit last week.

The euro tends to benefit when U.S. budget negotiations run smoothly, but when there are snags, investor flows go into the safe-haven and highly liquid dollar.

U.S. BONDS TRADE HIGHER, OIL EASES

Prices on longer-dated U.S. Treasuries were higher. The bond market began trimming its decline earlier on data that showed a bigger-than-expected drop in American consumer confidence in December, spurring worries about flagging consumer spending causing a U.S. recession.

Benchmark 10-year Treasuries prices were 12/32 higher in price, yielding 1.7077 percent, compared with being down by 2/32 before the confidence data and Reid's remarks.

Oil prices eased in choppy trading as the unresolved U.S. budget left open the possibility that looming mandated tax hikes and spending cuts could push the economy of the No. 1 oil consuming nation into recession.

Brent February fell 41 cents to $110.66 a barrel, while U.S. February crude was down 26 cents at $90.72.


NYMEX - NEW YORK, Dec 27 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures eased on Thursday in thin, choppy trading as unresolved U.S. budget talks left open the possibility that looming mandated tax hikes and spending cuts could push the top oil-consuming economy into recession.


CBOT SOYBEAN - Dec 27 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a second day Thursday in thin trade, pressured by long liquidation ahead of the year's end and worries about the U.S. "fiscal cliff" of impending tax hikes and spending cuts.
  • Spillover weakness from crude oil and equity markets, which fell after U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid warned that a deal to avoid fiscal austerity measures may not be reached by the Dec. 31 deadline.
  • CBOT March soybeans remained below chart resistance at the 200-day moving average of $14.40-1/2.
  • Trade expects USDA on Friday to show export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest reporting week at 100,000 to 300,000 tonnes. Analysts said recent cancellations of U.S. soy purchases by top buyer China should partially offset fresh sales.
  • Weekly soymeal export sales estimated at 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes; soyoil sales at nil to 20,000 tonnes. USDA delayed its report by one day due to the Christmas holiday.
  • Firm cash market for soybeans underpins market. Basis bids for soybeans shipped to the U.S. Gulf Coast strengthened early on Thursday amid expectations for renewed demand from China.
  • CBOT soybeans are on pace to post an annual gain of 18 percent for 2012, rebounding from a 14 percent decline in 2011. CBOT soymeal is up 39 percent for this year while soyoil has fallen 7 percent.

FCPO - KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 27 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures climbed to a five-week high on Thursday on expectations for stronger demand and as monsoon-driven floods in the country's key producing regions sparked concerns of supply disruptions.

Malaysian crude palm oil cargoes are likely to be cheaper than rival Indonesia's with the former setting its January export tax rate at zero compared to the latter's 7.5 percent.

The price advantage could spur demand for Malaysian crude palm oil at a time when production is seasonally lower and faces potential disruption from heavy rains, lifting hopes that record stocks could come down after driving down prices by 22 percent this year.

"The gains today are mostly headline driven with the flood news and all that, although it (the flood) has been easing a bit after Christmas," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"There has also been active buying of palm as traders attempt to narrow its price gap to soybean oil at around a $280 per tonne level."

The benchmark March contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose to 2,484 ringgit ($810) per tonne -- the highest level seen since Nov. 20 -- before settling at 2,479 ringgit, two percent higher than previous day's close.

Total traded volumes stood at 37,912 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.
Technical analysis showed that palm oil is expected to end the current rebound around 2,615 ringgit and fall to its Dec. 13 low of 2,217 ringgit over the next three months.

Malaysian palm oil futures are expected to recover in the first quarter of next year even after the market faces its biggest yearly loss since 2008 on expected stronger demand for crude palm oil.

Exports in the first 25 days of December rose as much as 3 percent due to bigger purchases from India, the world's top edible oil importer, and the United States, cargo surveyor data showed.

Brent crude oil slipped below $111 a barrel as nervous investors watched talks to avert a U.S. budget crisis that could push the world's biggest economy back into recession.

In other competing vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for January delivery rose 0.9 percent in late Asian trade on expectations of strong Chinese food demand. The most active May 2013 soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 0.5 percent.


REGIONAL EQUITIES - BANGKOK, Dec 27 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets posted small gains after a subdued session on Thursday amid cautions about a resolution to the U.S. fiscal cliff, but the Philippines bucked the trend on losses in recent rallying large caps such as SM Investments Corp

The Philippine Composite Index lost 0.65 percent to close at 5,794.89, reversing five sessions of gains that took the benchmark to a record finish of 5,832.83 on Wednesday. Shares in conglomerate SM slid 2.3 percent, off Wednesday's record close.

Bangkok's SET index Southeast Asia's best performer so far this year, rose 1.1 percent to close near the 1,400 mark amid strong buying interest in equity funds that offer tax breaks.

The Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange's VN Index rose for a fourth session, adding nearly 1 percent to its highest close in more than four months.




Thursday, December 27, 2012

RTRS - Indonesia cuts crude palm oil export tax to 7.5 pct for January

JAKARTA, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, reduced its export tax on crude palm oil to 7.5 percent for January from 9 percent in December, an official at the Trade Ministry said on Wednesday.

Indonesia has been under pressure from parts of the palm oil industry to change its export tax after rival producer Malaysia indicated it would cut its tax rate for January to zero to spur shipments and bring down record stocks.

The country also reduced the January export tax on RBD palm olein to 2 percent from 3 percent the previous month, while keeping the tax on cocoa beans exports unchanged at 5 percent, the official said.

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, Dec 26 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell for a third straight day on Wednesday, dragged lower by retail stocks after a report showed consumers spent less in the holiday shopping season than last year.

Trading was light, with volume at a mere 4.01 billion shares traded on on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, well below the daily average so far this year of about 6.48 billion shares. The day's volume was the lightest full day of trading so far in 2012. Many senior traders were still on vacation during this holiday-shortened week and major European markets were closed for the day.
Many investors said concerns about the "fiscal cliff" kept shoppers away from stores, suggesting markets may struggle to gain any ground until that issue is resolved. The CBOE Volatility Index or VIX, Wall Street's favorite barometer of investor anxiety, rose 4.46 percent, closing above 19 for the first time since Nov. 7.
A number of 2012's strongest performers advanced, a sign that portfolio managers may be engaging in "window dressing," a practice where market participants buy securities with big gains to improve the appearance of their holdings before presenting the results to clients. Bank of America Corp , which has more than doubled in 2012, added 2.6 percent to $11.54 on Wednesday.
Holiday-related sales rose 0.7 percent from Oct. 28 through Dec. 24, compared with a 2 percent increase last year, according to data from MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse. The Morgan Stanley retail index  skidded 1.8 percent while the SPDR S&P Retail Trust slipped 1.7 percent.
"With the 'fiscal cliff' hanging over our heads, it was hard to convince people to shop, and now it's hard to convince investors that there's any reason to buy going into year-end," said Rick Fier, director of trading at Conifer Securities in New York, which has about $12 billion in assets under administration.
President Barack Obama is due back in Washington early Thursday for a final effort to negotiate a deal with Congress to bridge a series of tax increases and government spending cuts set to begin next week, the so-called "fiscal cliff" many economists worry could push the U.S. economy into recession if it takes effect.
The Dow Jones industrial average slipped 24.49 points, or 0.19 percent, to 13,114.59 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index  shed 6.83 points, or 0.48 percent, to 1,419.83. The Nasdaq Composite Index  dropped 22.44 points, or 0.74 percent, to 2,990.16.
"People want to show they own names like these, making them prime 'window dressing' candidates," said Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at John Thomas Financial in New York.
"Bank of America keeps going up even though it's overbought and you'd expect a pullback at these levels. No one wanted it when it was under $10 a share, but they want it now."
The S&P 500 has fallen 1.5 percent over the past three sessions, the worst three-day decline since mid-November. The Dow Jones Transportation Average , viewed as a proxy for business activity, fell 0.6 percent.
A Republican plan that failed to gain traction last week triggered the S&P 500's recent drop, highlighting the market's sensitivity to headlines centered on the budget talks.
During the last five trading days of the year and the first two of next year, it's possible for a "Santa rally" to occur. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 1.8 percent during that period and risen 79 percent of the time, according to data from PrinceRidge.
"While it's unlikely there could be a budget deal at any time, no one wants to get in front of that trade," said Conifer's Fier. "Investors can easily make up for any gains when there's more action in 2013."
Data showed U.S. single-family home prices rose in October, reinforcing the view that the domestic real estate market is improving, as the S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.7 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Decliners outnumbered advancers on the New York Stock Exchange by a ratio of about 2 to 1, while on the Nasdaq, more than five stocks fell for every three that rose.

NYMEX - SEOUL, Dec 26 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures edged up to around $89 a barrel on Wednesday, but gains were capped by uncertainty over whether the United States will avoid a fiscal crisis, which could hit demand in the world's top consumer of oil.

CBOT Soybean - Dec 26 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 1 percent Wednesday on long liquidation and forecasts for favorable crop weather in South America, traders said.
  • Technical selling noted as most-active March soybeans turned lower in the early minutes of trade after failing to hold support above its 200-day average at $14.40.
  • Spillover weakness from declines in wheat and corn.
  • Soymeal and soyoil fell in sympathy with soybeans.
  • Market fell despite news that USDA confirmed sales of 115,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China and another 108,000 tonnes to unknown destinations, both for delivery in 2012/13.
  • USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 44.486 million bushels, above a range of trade estimates for 37 million to 42 million.
  • The Commodity Weather Group said wet areas of Argentina were expected to turn drier in the next two weeks, easing concerns about excess moisture, while welcome rains were forecast later this week and next for central Brazil.

FCPO - KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rose to a one month-high in light trade on Wednesday with investors turning their focus to seasonal rains that could trigger floods and curb edible oil supply in Southeast Asia.
In Malaysia, the world's No.2 producer, the weather office has issued warnings of heavy rains in the coming week that may cause floods in major oil palm growing areas that account for 75 percent of national output.
Rains and floods can disrupt logistics and harvesting, lowering high stocks and lifting prices that are on track for a yearly loss of above 23 percent -- steepest decline since the 2008 financial crisis.
"The floods will ensure that there's no major sell off in the market," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.
"Everybody wants to square their books, that's why you don't see much range nowadays. I can safely say that 2,200 ringgit is already the bottom for the market."
The benchmark March contract  on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange inched up 0.1 percent to close at 2,430 ringgit ($796) per tonne, slightly lower than its intraday high at 2,440 ringgit, a level unseen since Nov 27.
Total traded volumes stood at 16,062 lots of 25 tonnes each, much lower than the usual 25,000 lots as trading activity slowed towards the end of the year.
Despite the heavy rains, palm oil is still trading at a wide discount to competing soyoil that could draw in demand from big Asian consumers like India and China next year.
This comes as the soy exporting Americas face adverse weather that can crimp the supply of oilseed available for crushing into edible oils.
"The wild card is supply in the U.S and South America -- if there is tight supply then the market will be looking forward to our production," the trader said.
"If there is any production deficit in January, February and March, the only oilseed that can provide that kind of quantity will be palm."
Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 25 days of December inched up 0.5 percent from a month ago, on higher demand from India and stronger crude palm oil exports, according to data from cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services.
Another cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance reported a 3 percent rise in shipments for the same period.
Brent crude climbed above $109 per barrel in thin trade as investors clung to hopes U.S. lawmakers would come up with a last-minute deal to avert a looming fiscal crisis in the world's largest oil consumer.
In other vegetable oil markets, the most active May 2013 soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 0.4 percent lower.

Regional Equties - BANGKOK, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets edged higher on Wednesday as plantation stocks such as PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk and Wilmar International Ltd gained, but most markets saw weak buying interest due to the holiday season.
Singapore's Straits Times Index ended at a near 17-month high of 3,180.81 while Malaysia's Kuala Lumpur Composite Index reversed earlier losses to close 0.13 percent higher after late buying.
Indonesia also saw a late rebound, with Jakarta's Composite Index up 0.6 percent to 4,275.09, around its day's high. The Philippine Composite Index edged up 0.15 percent at 5,832.83, topping its record finish of 5,831.50 set on Dec. 11.
In relatively high trading volume, the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange's VN Index  climbed 1.2 percent to a near four-month peak amid expectations of government moves to deal with bad debts in the banking system.
Thailand's benchmark SET index set a new 17-year closing high of 1,382.23 as investors rushed to buy equities funds which offer tax breaks towards the end of the year.
 

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, Dec 24 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks edged lower on Monday as caution over the potential for volatility driven by worries about the U.S. "fiscal cliff" dampened enthusiasm at the start of a seasonally strong period for equities.

Investors are betting Congress will reach a deal to avert most of the austerity measures due to come into force at the start of next year. That has led to the best year for stocks since the post-financial crisis rebound. But those gains may be quickly reversed if a deal is not reached soon.
The S&P 500 index posted its biggest drop in more than a month on Friday as a Republican plan to avoid the cliff - $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts that could tip the U.S. economy into recession - failed to gain traction on Thursday night.
Sharp moves like that highlight how headlines from Washington can whipsaw markets, especially during the thinly traded period over the Christmas holiday.
Still, with the S&P 500 up 0.7 percent in December and on course for its strongest month since September, some analysts are predicting that stocks will find their footing during a market seasonality known as the "Santa Claus rally."
"Right now we've seen some very constructive action in the market so I think that bodes well for this being a positive seasonal 'Santa' period over the coming seven days," said Ari Wald, a technical analyst at The PrinceRidge Group.
He noted an all-time high in the NYSE advance-decline line, which compares advancing and declining stocks, as indication of strong participation in the rally off November lows.
"Pull-backs are buying opportunities," said Wald. "There has been really great participation on this move, a lot of small- and mid-cap stocks behaving well, pushing out to the upside; we're seeing some good leadership from offensive sectors of the market as well."
A high ratio of advancing stocks to declining issues shows there is broad participation across the equity market.
The Santa seasonality covers the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 1.8 percent during this period and risen 79 percent of the time, according to data from PrinceRidge.
The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 51.76 points, or 0.39 percent, to 13,139.08. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 3.49 points, or 0.24 percent, to 1,426.66. The Nasdaq Composite Index  lost 8.41 points, or 0.28 percent, to 3,012.60.
The S&P 500 is up more than 13 percent for the year, having recovered nearly all the losses suffered in the wake of the U.S. election. The yearly gain would be the best since 2009.
Some U.S. lawmakers expressed concern on Sunday the country would go over the cliff, as some Republicans charged that was President Barack Obama's goal. Talks are stalled with Obama and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner out of Washington for the holidays.
"It does seem like we are continuing through the same drift of the same thing we’ve had the past couple of weeks - 'cliff' talk," said Nick Scheumann, wealth partner at Hefty Wealth Partners in Auburn, Indiana.
"You can’t trade on what you don’t know and we truly don’t know what they are going to do," he said.
Congress is expected to return to Washington next Thursday as President Barack Obama returns from a trip to Hawaii. As the deadline draws closer, a 'stop-gap' deal appears to be the most likely outcome of any talks.
Trading volume was muted, with U.S. equity markets closing at 1 p.m. (1800 GMT) ahead of the Christmas Day holiday on Tuesday.
U.S. retailers may not see a sales surge from this weekend as ho-hum discounts and fears about imminent tax hikes and cuts in government spending give Americans fewer reasons to open their wallets in the last few days before Christmas.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, Dec 24 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures edged lower on Monday in thin, pre-holiday trade as oil prices came under pressure from concerns about the lack of a U.S. budget agreement to avert tax hikes and spending cuts that could slow the economy and curb demand for petroleum.

CBOT Soyoil - Dec 24 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose for a second trading day Monday in a holiday-shortened session, rebounding from last week's one-month low on technical buying and short-covering, traders said.
  • U.S. markets will be closed on Tuesday in observance of the Christmas holiday, with electronic and open-outcry trade set to resume Wednesday at 9:30 a.m.
  • USDA delayed the release of its weekly report on U.S. grain export inspections until Wednesday.
  • Cash values for soybeans were mostly unchanged at the U.S. Gulf and in the Midwest interior ahead of the holiday. Farmers have delayed sales after CBOT corn futures slumped to a six-month low and soy to a one-month low last week.
  • China's Shanghai and Dalian commodity futures exchanges will temporarily raise trading margins for all contracts from Dec. 28 ahead of a three-day New Year holiday. All margin requirements will return to normal levels after the holiday if the contracts do not hit circuit breakers on Jan. 4 when trading resumes.
  • Large speculators expanded their net long position in CBOT soybeans to 93,168 lots in the week ended Dec. 18, the largest net long in five weeks, weekly data from the U.S. CFTC showed Friday.

FCPO - KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 24 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures climbed to a near one-month high on Monday as investors pinned hopes on next year's tight supply of competing soyoil shifting food demand to the tropical oil.
Record palm oil stocks in Malaysia, the world's No.2 producer, and slowing global demand has weighed on the market that has fallen 23 percent this year.
Palm oil has widened its discount to soyoil, potentially drawing in more demand from big Asian consumers like India next year as soy-exporting South American faces tighter supply from adverse weather.
"For Q1 2013 we anticipate soybean supply to be tight albeit China cancelling, so that deficit can only be covered by palm oil," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage.
"South America must produce and if they fail, then attention will turn to palm oil," the trader added.
The benchmark March contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 1 percent to close at 2,431 ringgit ($794) per tonne. Prices earlier climbed to 2,437 ringgit per tonne, the highest level since Nov. 27.
Total traded volumes stood at 18,637 lots of 25 tonnes each, much lower than the usual 25,000 lots ahead of Christmas holidays.
Seasonally slowing output and a growing biodiesel demand from Europe could help prop up palm oil prices in the first quarter of next year.
"From a fundamental point of view, palm should be supported by yield getting thinner and also emerging demand not only from the usual suspects, but Europe as well," said Standard Chartered analyst Abah Ofon in Singapore.
"On one hand European refiners are looking to buy crude palm oil because of the good discount between gasoil. That's making crude palm oil attractive as a feedstock for biodiesel," Ofon added.
Brent crude fell for a third day on Monday, trading below $109 a barrel, as uncertainty over the ability of the United States to resolve a budget crisis before a year-end deadline stoked concerns about demand growth in the world's top oil consumer.
In other competing vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for January delivery fell 0.1 percent in late Asian trade after earlier gains on bargain hunting as prices slid on China's record cancellation.
Last Friday, China cancelled 540,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans --the biggest cancellation by the world's top importer of the oilseed in at least 14 years -- as it expects to book cheaper supplies from Brazil next year.

Regional Equities - BANGKOK, Dec 25 (Reuters) - Vietnam's main share index rose for a second day to a three-month high on Tuesday, led higher by financial stocks, while Thailand's SET index eked out slim gains as domestic institutions led buyers.
In a rangebound session, Vietnam ended at 401.34, the highest since Sept. 17, and Thailand was up 0.14 percent by 0922 GMT. The Thai index has risen 34.3 percent so far this year, Southeast Asia's best performer.
The Thai bourse expects a number of companies to list on the main SET bourse and the smaller Market for Alternative Investment next year, worth about 120 billion baht ($3.92 billion) in initial public offerings (IPOs), president Charamporn Jotikasthira said.
The two bourses saw about 113 billion baht worth of IPOs in 2012, he said.
Among actively traded stocks on Tuesday, Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade  gained 3.7 percent in trading volume of 3.2 times the monthly average, while Thai telecoms group Shin Corp Pcl rose 0.7 percent.
Singapore , Malaysia , Indonesia and the Philippines were closed on Tuesday for the Christmas holiday, reopening on Wednesday.

Monday, December 24, 2012

RTRS - Snow storm makes small dent in drought-stricken U.S. crop region

CHICAGO, Dec 21 (Reuters) - The first major snow storm of winter did little to ease the worst drought in more than 50 years in the crop growing U.S. Central Plains and Midwest, while snarling traffic and hampering feeding and transportation of livestock.
MDA EarthSat Weather meteorologist Kyle Tapley said six to 12 inches or more snow fell from Nebraska into Wisconsin during the past two days, the equivalent of about 0.50 inch to 1.00 inch of rain, that will help ease but not eliminate drought worries.
Tapley said roughly 10 inches of moisture or rainfall would be needed in a large portion of the Plains and Midwest to break the drought of 2012 that trimmed crop production and sapped soil moisture reserves.
"The snow put a small dent in the drought and I don't see any moisture for next week," Tapley said.
Commodity Weather Group (CWG) said the snow favored Wisconsin, far eastern Iowa, far northwestern Illinois and west-central Michigan on Thursday with better than a foot of snow in Wisconsin.
"Another storm over the weekend into early next week will bring rain to the Delta and Southeast and a chance for snow near the Ohio River Valley," said CWG meteorologist Joel Widenor.
Widenor said prospects for more rain or snow in the southern Plains hard red winter wheat producing states were more limited on Friday.
But there could be some light rain or snow in the area on Tuesday but "this would provide only limited additional drought relief," Widenor said.
Winterkill threats for wheat and frost threats for Florida citrus are still limited, despite cooling the next two weeks, according to CWG's advisory on Friday.

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, Dec 21 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks finished lower on Friday after a Republican plan to avoid the "fiscal cliff" failed to gain sufficient support on Thursday night, draining hopes that a deal would be reached before 2013.

Still, stocks managed to rebound from the day's lows near the end of the session, and for the week, the three major U.S. stock indexes still ended higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.2 percent.
Trading was volatile because of waning confidence in the prospect of a deal out of Washington, and in part, as the result of the quarterly expiration of options and futures contracts. The CBOE Volatility Index or VIX, the market's favorite barometer of investor anxiety, finished below its session high.
Republican House Speaker John Boehner failed to garner enough votes from even his own party to pass his "Plan B" tax bill late on Thursday. It was the latest setback in negotiations to avoid $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts that some say could tip the U.S. economy into recession.
"The failure with Plan B was disappointing, if not terribly surprising, but now there’s a real lack of clarity about what will happen, and markets hate that," said Mike Hennessy, managing director of investments for Morgan Creek in Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
The Dow Jones industrial average  dropped 120.88 points, or 0.91 percent, to 13,190.84 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index  fell 13.54 points, or 0.94 percent, to 1,430.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index  lost 29.38 points, or 0.96 percent, to 3,021.01.
"Amazingly, this sharp decline today may not actually change the technical picture much - unless the decline gets worse," said Larry McMillan, president of options research firm McMillan Analysis Corp, in a research note.
For the week, the Dow gained 0.4 percent and the Nasdaq climbed 1.7 percent.
On Friday, Herbalife  dropped for an eighth straight session. Investor Bill Ackman recently ramped up his campaign against the company. The stock skidded 19.2 percent to $27.27 and has lost more than 35 percent this week.
Plan B, which called for tax increases on those who earn $1 million or more a year, was not going to pass the Democratic-led Senate or win acceptance from the White House anyway. But it exposed the reality that it will be difficult to get Republican support for the more expansive tax increases that President Barack Obama has urged.
Still, the declines of about 1 percent in the three major U.S. stock indexes suggest that investors do not believe the economy will be unduly damaged by the absence of a deal, said Mark Lehmann, president of JMP Securities, in San Francisco.
"You could have easily woken up today and seen the market down 300 or 400 points, and everyone would have said, 'That's telling you this is really dire,'" Lehmann said.
"I think if you get into mid-January and (the talks) keep going like this, you get worried, but I don't think we're going to get there."Volatility on Friday was exacerbated in part by "quadruple witching," the quarterly expiration of stock index futures and options, stock options and single stock futures contracts.
About 8.59 billion shares changed hands on major U.S. exchanges, more than the daily average of 6.47 billion daily in 2012, in part because of the "quadruple witching" expiration.
The day's round of data indicated the economy was surprisingly resilient in November; consumer spending rose by the most in three years and a gauge of business investment jumped.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, Dec 21 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell more than 1 percent on Friday as faltering efforts to negotiate a U.S. budget reinforced fears a deal would not get done to avoid mandated tax hikes and spending cuts that could curb the economy and demand for petroleum.

CBOT - Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures were higher on bargain buying following the nearly 5 percent price tumble over the past week, traders said.
* USDA said on Friday that a 110,000 tonne soybean sale to unknown destinations for 2012/13 delivery that was announced on Tuesday was incorrect. The agency said it was a domestic sale, not an export sale.
·         Spot basis bids for soybeans held mostly steady in the Midwest on Friday as snowfall and winds reduced the already slow pace of deliveries of the crop to market, grain merchants said.
·         The first major snowstorm of winter did little to ease the worst drought in more than 50 years in the crop growing central U.S. Plains and Midwest, while snarling traffic and hampering feeding and transportation of livestock.  
·         Key resistance for the March contract is at its 200-day moving average of $14.74-1/2. The nine-day relative strength index is at 40.

FCPO - SINGAPORE, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures touched a more-than-three-week high on Friday, posting their first weekly gain in five weeks as traders sought to cover short positions amid optimism for a zero export tax on crude palm oil in early 2013 to cut stocks.
Palm oil posted a 5.9 percent gain on the week, its best performance this year, after the edible oil suffered four straight weeks of losses on record high stocks.
"There's a technical break above the resistance level at 2,381 ringgit per tonne, and prices should remain supported above the 2,370 ringgit level," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia. "One factor could be the pre-weekend short cover."
At the close, the benchmark March contract  on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was up 3.8 percent to settle at 2,409 ringgit ($788) per tonne, just off a high at 2,410 ringgit, a level last seen on Nov. 28.
Total traded volumes stood at 33,240 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.
Technical analysis showed palm oil is expected to test resistance at 2,381 ringgit per tonne and a bullish target at 2,419 ringgit has been established, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said.
A small surprise increase in Malaysia's palm exports for the first 20 days of the month also injected cheer in the market, with cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance reporting a slight increase of 0.5 percent in shipments for the period from a month ago.
A jump in crude palm oil exports during the period, which shows companies are pushing out exports ahead of the year-end expiry of their duty-free quota, could help ease record-high stocks in the No.2 palm producer.
Analysts, however, cautioned against an overly optimistic view on inventory levels, citing lower demand from the northern hemisphere, where the edible oil tends to solidify in winter.
"Hence, despite the expected December month-on-month production decline of 12 percent, inventory should stay persistently high at above 2.5 million tonnes," Alan Lim Seong Chun, an analyst with Malaysia's Kenanga Investment Bank, said in a research note.
"Looking ahead to first quarter 2013, we expect the inventory to decline only marginally and to stay above 2 million tonnes and limit the price upside to below 3,000 ringgit."
Brent crude fell below $110 a barrel on Friday after talks in the United States to avert a budget crisis stalled, reviving worries about demand in the world's biggest oil consumer.
Palm oil prices were also supported by gains in competing vegetable oil markets. U.S. soyoil for January delivery gained 1.8 percent in late Asian trade. The most active May 2013 soybean oil contract  on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 0.6 percent higher.

Regional Equties - BANGKOK, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Philippine stocks ended higher on Friday, resuming a gain on the week, as investors built up positions in blue chips like banks amid ratings upgrade hopes, while other overbought markets retreated as concerns about U.S. fiscal cliff prompted selling.
The Philippine index  rose for a fourth session, adding 0.5 percent and was up 2.1 percent on the week, reversing last week's 1.5 percent loss. It ended at 5,823.94, slightly off the previous record close of 5,831.50 set on Dec. 11.
Shares in Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co , the second biggest lender by assets, advanced 2.1 percent, extending gains for a third session, after Moody's changed Philippine banking system outlook to positive
Vietnam fell 0.7 percent after a two-day rally that had taken it into overbought territory. Its 14-day relative strength index (RSI) eased to 64.8 on Friday from Thursday's 72.46, above the threshold 70 that indicates an overbought market.
Singapore , Malaysia  and Thailand also traded in overbought conditions, pulled lower.
Foreign investors turned net sellers on Friday for a net 48 million ringgit ($15.71 million) after three days of buying for a combined 161 million ringgit ($53 million), the Malaysian bourse said.
Indonesia  was down 0.1 percent, the fourth session of falls. With a weekly loss of 1.4 percent, it was the region's worst performer.