Wednesday, October 3, 2012

RTRS- Iran makes big South American soy purchases-Oil World

HAMBURG, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Iran made major imports of Argentine soyoil and soybeans between July and September as Iranian buyers found methods of making payments in the face of western sanctions, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

Iran imported 202,000 tonnes of soyoil in July-Sept. 2012, up from only 160,000 in April-June this year, a figure depressed as sanctions hit shipments, Oil World estimates.

Of the July-Sept. total, 129,000 tonnes is believed to have been imported from Argentina, 59,000 tonnes from Brazil and 14,000 tonnes from Paraguay, Oil World said.

Western sanctions imposed on Iran because of its disputed nuclear programme do not include food shipments, but sanctions make it intensely difficult for importers to obtain letters of credit or conduct international transfers of funds through banks.

Iran has been able to make large wheat purchases in past weeks despite sanctions, Reuters reported on Thursday.
Iran has also stepped up soybean imports in recent months, Oil World said.

“Iran will import roughly 160,000 tonnes of soybeans in June/Sept. 2012, the bulk of it from Argentina, it said. “This volume compares to only 68,000 tonnes imported in Jan./May 2012 before importers found ways to purchase large volumes despite the sanctions.”

Iran has also made heavy sunflower oil purchases, raising July-Sept. 2012 sunoil imports to 154,000 tonnes from only 75,000 tonnes in April-June 2012, Oil World estimates.

Ukraine supplied 140,000 tonnes of the July-Sept. sunoil imports, Argentina 10,000 tonnes with the rest mainly coming from Russia, Oil World said.

RTRS- Palm oil discount to soy oil looks unsustainable: Clyde Russell

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Crude palm oil prices have not only slumped to their lowest in more than two years, they are also at the widest discount to soybean oil since the 2008 global financial crisis.

While prices for both vegetable oils may continue to drop amid sufficient supplies and a potential softening in demand as the world economy struggles, it is more than likely that the spread will narrow in coming months.

Benchmark crude palm oil futures traded in Malaysia FCPOc3 were around 2,400 ringgit ($787) a tonne on Tuesday, the lowest since July 2010.

More importantly, the gap between palm oil and soybean oil traded in Chicago was around $329 a tonne, the widest since October 2008, when prices plummeted during the global recession.

Palm oil and soybean oil are largely fungible, although it obviously takes several months for consumers to switch from the one to other.

The biggest spread between the two vegoils was just at the start of the global financial crisis, when it reached $402 a tonne in early July 2008.

As palm oil prices plunged 64 percent from July to October 2008, the gap between them and Chicago soy oil futures remained wide, however, it started to narrow once both contracts had bottomed out.

As palm oil recovered, it did so at a faster pace than soy oil, and by mid-May in 2009 the premium of soy oil was down to just $87 a tonne.

This narrower difference was maintained until February last year, when it started widening again as prices for both initially traded sideways before dropping.

It seems that for the past four years there has been a fairly consistent pattern that the spread widens when prices for both vegoils are declining, and narrows when they are rising.

But before placing a bet on the spread narrowing, one would have to have a fair degree of confidence that palm oil prices have bottomed out.

There is a seasonality to palm oil prices, with the low point normally being in October.

High inventories in Asian producers and softer Chicago soybean prices, given a record pace of U.S. harvest and evidence of better-than-expected yields, have also hurt palm oil prices.

But the big premium being commanded by soy oil will spur buyers to switch to palm oil, which should at least stop prices from falling much further.

It's also possible that palm oil prices have now adjusted after getting too high on the back of fears earlier in the year of poor soybean harvests due to a historic U.S. drought and also of an El Nino weather event hurting palm oil production in Southeast Asia.

It now appears that the El Nino event currently developing may be weak, which would limit the impact on palm oil output.

El Nino is the phenomenon of the warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, which is associated with drier weather in Southeast Asia and Australia and wetter-than-normal conditions in parts of South and North America.

"A weak El Nino may develop in September and October and last until the northern hemisphere winter," the World Meteorological Organization said in a statement Sept. 25.

Palm oil futures more normally trade in backwardation, but are currently in contango, where prompt-delivery contracts are cheaper than those for later delivery.

This shows the market is still concerned about lower supplies in the first half of next year, a fear that may be overblown given the likelihood of a mild El Nino and indications that soy oil stocks will be better than expected.

But it also may reflect the view that the current sell-off in palm oil has been overdone and futures will recover in the next few months, and narrow the gap to soy oil futures.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Wall Street ended little changed in a volatile session on Tuesday as uncertainty over when Spain might apply for a bailout shackled a market struggling to build on gains that took the S&P 500 to its highest in nearly five years.

The market was also hamstrung by concerns about the upcoming reporting period that kicks into full gear next week.

The Dow was pressured by stocks closely tied to the pace of growth, including Caterpillar Inc CAT.N and Boeing Co BA.N. A major headwind for the economy has been declining demand from Europe, which has been drifting toward recession.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said a request for European aid was not imminent following a report the country could apply for help soon. Germany has signaled that Madrid should hold off on making its request, according to European officials on Monday.
"The market is reacting more to the (Spain) news because it wants to consolidate after a pretty good run. The market is making this news even bigger than it really is just to make it an excuse to sell," said Frank Gretz, market analyst at Wellington Shields & Co in New York.

The S&P rose nearly 6 percent in the third quarter, lifted by accommodative moves by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, which market participants bet would boost flagging growth.

If Madrid were to seek a rescue, it would trigger European Central Bank buying of its bonds and help to ease U.S. investors' nervousness about impact of the euro zone's debt crisis on the U.S. economy.

"Until we get some kind of clarity, we should expect a lot of volatility and difficulty holding on to gains," said Brian Barish, president of Cambiar Investors LLC in Denver.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 32.83 points, or 0.24 percent, at 13,482.28. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 1.26 points, or 0.09 percent, at 1,445.75. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 6.51 points, or 0.21 percent, at 3,120.04.

Weaker-than-expected results from Mosaic MOS.N added to worries about the upcoming third-quarter earnings period. Mosaic shares fell 3.9 percent to $55.76.

Vanguard Group, the largest U.S. mutual fund manager, said it was switching 22 of its biggest index funds away from benchmarks provided by MSCI Inc MSCI.N in order to cut costs.

 
Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc CMG.N took a nosedive when hedge fund manager David Einhorn said the restaurant chain will face significant competition and additional costs, making it an attractive "short." The stock fell 4.2 percent to $302.96.

In a presentation at the annual Value Investing Congress in New York, Einhorn highlighted some stocks he expects will rise such as General Motors GM.N. GM shares rose 2.6 percent to $23.68.

Car companies reported September sales, with General Motors and Chrysler Group LLC posting gains while Ford Motor Co F.N remained flat.

GM, the largest U.S. automaker, reported a 1.5 percent increase, while Ford reported sales on par with its results from a year earlier. Chrysler showed a 12 percent jump in sales. Ford shares lost 1.4 percent to $9.79.
About 5.7 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, Amex and Nasdaq, compared with the average daily volume of 6.38 billion.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Oct 2 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell on Tuesday in choppy, light-volume, trading as concerns about slowing economic growth and curbed demand for petroleum weighed on oil prices and countered supportive concerns about the risk of supply disruptions.

Falling RBOB gasoline RBc1 futures settled 1.74 percent lower and provided additional pressure on crude futures.

CBOT SOYBEAN-Chicago Board of Trade soybeans fell 1.9 percent to a three-month low, pressured by the advancing U.S. harvest as well as weakness in the palm oil market, traders said.

* Soybeans closed above their daily lows as the early drop sparked some light commercial buying and a round of short covering.

• The benchmark CBOT November contract SX2 found support after falling to its 100-day moving average early in Tuesday's session.

• Weakness in the cash market added further pressure to soy futures. Soybean basis bids fell by 15 cents per bushel in the key market of Deceatur, Illinois, on Monday afternoon.

• The U.S. Agriculture Department said late on Monday that the soybean harvest was a record 41 percent complete as of Sept. 30, topping forecasts for 38 percent.

 
• Taiwan's Breakfast Soybean Procurement Association tendered to buy up to 180,000 tonnes of soybeans from the United States or South America, European traders said.

 
• Iran made major imports of Argentine soyoil and soybeans between July and September despite western sanctions, oilseeds analyst Oil World said.

FCPO- KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures dived to their lowest in more than three years on Tuesday, as slowing demand from Asia coincided with a drop in the edible oil's appeal as a substitute for soy oil, with the U.S. soybean harvest progressing at a record pace.

Palm oil's decline follows the weakness in the Chicago soybean complex, which tumbled to a three-month low during Asian hours on Tuesday on U.S. harvest pressure. Palm oil has lost more than 29 percent since the start of the year.

Lacklustre palm oil shipments, despite the Malaysian government increasing a tax free export quota for crude palm oil, is now certain to boost stocks in September above the ten-month high logged in August.

"There is nothing to do but sell. Everything is working against palm oil, from fundamentals to other global markets," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"I suspect there may be a bounce tomorrow but everyone is short-selling for now and the general trend is for the market to go lower in the weeks to come."

The benchmark December contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped 8.7 percent - its steepest daily drop since the 2008 financial crisis - to 2,250 ringgit ($737) per tonne, a level unseen since November 2009.

It later closed at 2,255 ringgit per tonne.

Total traded volumes jumped to 49,867 lots of 25 tonnes each, nearly double the usual 25,000 lots as dealers aggressively sold off the market.

Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said technicals showed palm oil would rebound to 2,500 ringgit per tonne, as its fall may temporarily stop around a support at 2,407 ringgit, but that rebound would little affect the current downtrend.

 
Palm oil exports in September hovered around 1.4 million tonnes, barely moving from a month ago. Malaysian plantation officials and traders now say stocks could easily hit 2.5 million tonnes, with October shaping up to be a peak production month.

"The government has issued about 3.5 million tonnes of tax free crude palm oil export quota for this year and it was supposed to finish in September," said another Malaysian trader.

"If it has really been completed, we are in trouble. Stocks are going to shoot up," he added.

Brent crude oil slipped to around $112 a barrel on Tuesday as investors weighed a weaker outlook for fuel demand and sluggish economic growth against the risk of possible supply disruptions.

 
In other vegetable oils markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 dropped 1.4 percent in Asian trade. The Dalian Commodity Exchange remains closed for a holiday in China and will resume trading on October 8.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets closed higher on Tuesday, with the Thai main index touching its highest in more than 16 years and most others hitting multi-week highs amid selective buying in regional blue chips.

However, broad buying interest remained weak and investors were cautious about the global economic outlook.MKTS/GLOB

Bangkok's SET index .SETI gained for the fourth straight session, e nding up 0.46 percent at 1,305.66, its highest close since May 1996. Singapore's Straits Times Index .FTSTI was up 0.7 percent at 3,079.14, its highest close since mid-August.

Malaysia's main index .KLSE rose 0.5 percent, extending its gain for a sixth session, to a one-month closing high of 1,651.03.

Consumer-related stocks were among the most actively traded across the region, led by an 8 percent gain of Thailand's Big C Supercenter Pcl BIGC.BK. Indonesia's Astra International Tbk PT ASII.JK and Malaysia's Axiata Group Bhd AXIA.KL both ended up 1.4 percent.