Friday, December 14, 2012

RTRS - NOPA November US soy crush seen at 157.343 mln bushels


SOYBEAN - CHICAGO, Dec 13 (Reuters) - The National Oilseed Processors Association's monthly soybean crush data scheduled for release on Friday should show the U.S. crush for November at 157.343 million bushels, analysts projected.

If realized, the figure would represent the largest for the month of November since 2009 and the biggest overall monthly crush since January 2010.

Trade estimates ranged from 147.5 million to 164.0 million bushels. NOPA reported the October crush at 153.536 million bushels. The soy crush in November 2011 was 141.277 million bushels.

The consensus estimate for NOPA's November U.S. soyoil stocks figure was 2.227 billion lbs, up from NOPA's October figure of 2.188 billion lbs. Analysts' estimates ranged from 2.138 billion to 2.280 billion..

NOPA reported November 2011 soyoil stocks at 1.876 billion lbs.

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, Dec 13 (Reuters) - A seven-day rally in world shares came to a halt and commodity prices slipped on Thursday after negotiations over the U.S. "fiscal cliff" hit a wall, with both Republicans and the White House voicing frustration at the lack of progress.

Wall Street turned lower after U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, the top congressional Republican, refused to give ground in negotiations with President Barack Obama on a new fiscal plan.
Boehner voiced frustration about talks with the White House to avert the steep tax hikes and spending cuts that will be triggered at the end of the year unless Congress intervenes.

Investor skittishness led the S&P 500 to end a six-day winning streak, European shares to slip from 18-month highs and MSCI's all-country world index to cap seven straight days of gains.

"There is no conviction here and Boehner’s comments - as harsh as they were - were realistic," said Jason Weisberg, managing director at Seaport Securities Corp. in New York.

"The 'fiscal cliff' is already built in. That being said, people don’t like to be told the apocalypse is coming over and over and over again. The real players in this market have already closed their books," Weisberg said.
Data showing U.S. retail sales rose in November and jobless claims fell sharply last week were hopeful signs for an economy that appears to have slowed sharply this quarter. But the news failed to buoy investors consumed by the budget talks.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 74.73 points, or 0.56 percent, at 13,170.72. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 9.03 points, or 0.63 percent, at 1,419.45. The Nasdaq Composite Index slid 21.65 points, or 0.72 percent, at 2,992.16.

MSCI's world equity index fell 0.29 percent to 336.82.

European shares slipped, led by a fall in heavyweight healthcare stocks, after uncertainty over the U.S. budget talks prompted investors to cash in an eight-session winning streak.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index closed down 0.42 percent at 1,134.86, ending a three-week rally that had pushed prices to 18-month highs.

Crude oil prices slipped under $109 a barrel due to rising U.S. oil stocks and fears that the world's largest economy might risk a recession if a resolution to the budget issue is not reached.

With the front-month January contract approaching expiration on Friday, Brent crude's losses were deeper than for its U.S. counterpart.

Benchmark Brent crude settled down $1.59 to $107.91 a barrel. U.S. crude fell 88 cents to settle at $85.89.

The Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index which tracks 19 commodity markets, was down 0.85 percent at 292.6968.

The dollar held steady against the euro after falling for three straight days as the looming fiscal crisis curbed weakness in the currency after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced further monetary stimulus.
The Fed met market expectations by saying it would keep buying $45 billion of government bonds each month after its "Operation Twist" program expires. That is in addition to its purchases of $40 billion a month in agency mortgage-backed securities.

The euro was 0.03 percent higher at 1.3076, while the U.S. dollar index rose 0.13 percent at 79.919.
U.S. Treasury debt prices eased after data showed claims for unemployment benefits were lower than expected in the latest week, which undermined the safe-haven appeal of lower-risk U.S. government debt.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was down 7/32 in price to yield 1.7265 percent.


NYMEX - NEW YORK, Dec 13 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell on Thursday as concern about the risk of U.S. recession, given the absence of a deal to avert mandated 2013 tax increases and spending cuts, countered any support for oil prices from a drop in U.S. jobless benefit claims.


CBOT SOYBEAN - Dec 13 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended mixed on Thursday, with nearby contracts higher on robust U.S. export demand and back months lower on expectations for a large South American crop, traders said.

- USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 1,319,500 tonnes, well above trade expectations for 600,000 to 850,000 tonnes.

- USDA put weekly U.S. soymeal export sales at 271,800 tonnes and weekly soyoil sales at 30,500 tonnes,      both within trade expectations.

- Additional support stemmed from expectations that monthly trade data on Friday will show a large U.S. soy crush for November. The average trade estimate of the U.S. soy crush ahead of the National Oilseed Processors Association report on Friday was 157.3 million bushels, which would surpass NOPA's October crush figure of 153.5 million.

- The January soybean contract hit an intraday high of $14.90, briefly rising above its 50-day moving average at $14.89, but settled well below the mark at $14.76-1/2.

- January soymeal set a one-month high at $458.20 but pared gains by the close, settling at $455.30.

- January soyoil fell to a three-week low.

- Soymeal continued to gain against soyoil on expectations that commodity index funds will buy soymeal and sell soyoil as part of annual rebalancing efforts in early 2013. The DJ-UBS Commodity Index announced in late October that it would add soymeal to its index and reduce soyoil holdings for 2013. 

- Prospects for a large South American soybean crop hang over the market. Weather forecasts for central Brazil call for an "active rain pattern" for the next two weeks that should bolster crops, the Commodity Weather Group said.

- Yet logistics in Brazil remain a worry. Brazil's ports are among the slowest and most costly in the world due poor infrastructure, high taxes, excessive red-tape and deficient road and rail access, the country's private transport sector said in a report.


FCPO - SINGAPORE, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Thursday to their lowest in more than three years, as record stocks and concerns that U.S. fiscal woes might drag on global growth spooked investors.

Despite announcements of more monetary stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve, traders remained cautious as sharp differences on the 2013 budget persisted between Congressional Republicans and the White House, and negotiators warned the showdown could drag on past Christmas.

Record high stocks in Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm producer, also drove palm oil futures to their third straight daily loss.

"The market looks exhausted at current levels, and some correction is anticipated. But any bounce will be limited with supply seen at record levels," a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia said.
At the close, the benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.6 percent to settle at 2,227 ringgit ($730) per tonne, slightly above its intraday low of 2,217 ringgit, a level unseen since November 2009.

Total traded volumes surged to 34,576 lots of 25 tonnes each after the midday break, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.

Traders will be counting on Malaysian exporters to use their tax-free export quota ahead of its year-end expiration and looking to stronger Chinese demand to bolster export figures for the first half of December.
India's monthly imports of cooking oil fell by a third in November, a trade body said, largely because of a drop in purchases of palm oil, as cold weather makes the commodity unusable and volatile prices deterred buyers.

Malaysia's new crude palm oil export tax for January is also in focus as analysts said the tax, likely to be set at zero, could boost exports of the crude grade and ease record stock levels.

In a bearish sign for palm oil, Brent crude slipped toward $109 a barrel on rising U.S. oil stockpiles, while fears the world's largest economy might miss a deadline for next year's budget and risk a recession also kept bulls in check.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for January delivery lost 0.1 percent in late Asian trade. The most active May 2013 soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 0.6 percent lower.



REGIONAL EQUITY - BANGKOK, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets ended mostly lower to flat on Thursday as investors cashed in on recent market gainers and a selloff in Unilever Indonesia due to the impact of royalty fee on profits weighed on the Jakarta bourse.

The Philippine index fell 0.6 percent, extending its loss for a second day and after Tuesday's rise to a record finish of 5,831.50. Shares of conglomerate Ayala Corp, which hit an all-time high early in the week, slipped 2 percent.

After the market close, the Philippine central bank said it kept its benchmark interest rate steady at a record low of 3.5 percent, as expected, with economic growth expected to stay robust on the back of strong domestic demand.

The Philippines had gained 32.4 percent so far this year, slightly ahead of Thailand's 32 percent rise. Both markets are among the best performing markets worldwide so far this year.

Jakarta's Composite index edged down 0.4 percent after three sessions of gains. Shares of Unilever Indonesia continued their slide for the second day as profit concerns prompted downgrades by many brokerages.

Stocks in Malaysia advanced a modest 0.2 percent after late selling while Thailand finished down 0.06 percent, Singapore ended up 0.5 percent and Vietnam inched up 0.03 percent.

RTRS- NOPA November US soy crush seen at 157.343 mln bushels

CHICAGO, Dec 13 (Reuters) - The National Oilseed Processors Association's monthly soybean crush data scheduled for release on Friday should show the U.S. crush for November at 157.343 million bushels, analysts projected.

If realized, the figure would represent the largest for the month of November since 2009 and the biggest overall monthly crush since January 2010.

Trade estimates ranged from 147.5 million to 164.0 million bushels. NOPA reported the October crush at 153.536 million bushels. The soy crush in November 2011 was 141.277 million bushels.

The consensus estimate for NOPA's November U.S. soyoil stocks figure was 2.227 billion lbs, up from NOPA's October figure of 2.188 billion lbs. Analysts' estimates ranged from 2.138 billion to 2.280 billion.

NOPA reported November 2011 soyoil stocks at 1.876 billion lbs.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Dec 13 (Reuters) - A seven-day rally in world shares came to a halt and commodity prices slipped on Thursday after negotiations over the U.S. "fiscal cliff" hit a wall, with both Republicans and the White House voicing frustration at the lack of progress.

Wall Street turned lower after U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, the top congressional Republican, refused to give ground in negotiations with President Barack Obama on a new fiscal plan.

Boehner voiced frustration about talks with the White House to avert the steep tax hikes and spending cuts that will be triggered at the end of the year unless Congress intervenes.

Investor skittishness led the S&P 500 to end a six-day winning streak, European shares to slip from 18-month highs and MSCI's all-country world index to cap seven straight days of gains.

"There is no conviction here and Boehner’s comments - as harsh as they were - were realistic," said Jason Weisberg, managing director at Seaport Securities Corp. in New York.

"The 'fiscal cliff' is already built in. That being said, people don’t like to be told the apocalypse is coming over and over and over again. The real players in this market have already closed their books," Weisberg said.

Data showing U.S. retail sales rose in November and jobless claims fell sharply last week were hopeful signs for an economy that appears to have slowed sharply this quarter. But the news failed to buoy investors consumed by the budget talks.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI closed down 74.73 points, or 0.56 percent, at 13,170.72. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX fell 9.03 points, or 0.63 percent, at 1,419.45. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC slid 21.65 points, or 0.72 percent, at 2,992.16.

 
European shares slipped, led by a fall in heavyweight healthcare stocks, after uncertainty over the U.S. budget talks prompted investors to cash in an eight-session winning streak.

 
Crude oil prices slipped under $109 a barrel due to rising U.S. oil stocks and fears that the world's largest economy might risk a recession if a resolution to the budget issue is not reached.

With the front-month January contract approaching expiration on Friday, Brent crude's losses were deeper than for its U.S. counterpart.

Benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 settled down $1.59 to $107.91 a barrel. U.S. crude CLc1 fell 88 cents to settle at $85.89.

 
The dollar held steady against the euro after falling for three straight days as the looming fiscal crisis curbed weakness in the currency after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced further monetary stimulus.

The Fed met market expectations by saying it would keep buying $45 billion of government bonds each month after its "Operation Twist" program expires. That is in addition to its purchases of $40 billion a month in agency mortgage-backed securities.

The euro EUR= was 0.03 percent higher at 1.3076, while the U.S. dollar index .DXY rose 0.13 percent at 79.919.

U.S. Treasury debt prices eased after data showed claims for unemployment benefits were lower than expected in the latest week, which undermined the safe-haven appeal of lower-risk U.S. government debt.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note US10YT=RR was down 7/32 in price to yield 1.7265 percent.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Dec 13 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell on Thursday as concern about the risk of U.S. recession, given the absence of a deal to avert mandated 2013 tax increases and spending cuts, countered any support for oil prices from a drop in U.S. jobless benefit claims.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Dec 13 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended mixed on Thursday, with nearby contracts higher on robust U.S. export demand and back months lower on expectations for a large South American crop, traders said.

• USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 1,319,500 tonnes, well above trade expectations for 600,000 to 850,000 tonnes.

• USDA put weekly U.S. soymeal export sales at 271,800 tonnes and weekly soyoil sales at 30,500 tonnes, both within trade expectations.

• Additional support stemmed from expectations that monthly trade data on Friday will show a large U.S. soy crush for November. The average trade estimate of the U.S. soy crush ahead of the National Oilseed Processors Association report on Friday was 157.3 million bushels, which would surpass NOPA's October crush figure of 153.5 million.

• The January soybean contract SF3 hit an intraday high of $14.90, briefly rising above its 50-day moving average at $14.89, but settled well below the mark at $14.76-1/2.

• January soymeal SMF3 set a one-month high at $458.20 but pared gains by the close, settling at $455.30.

• January soyoil BOF3 fell to a three-week low.

• Soymeal continued to gain against soyoil on expectations that commodity index funds will buy soymeal and sell soyoil as part of annual rebalancing efforts in early 2013. The DJ-UBS Commodity Index announced in late October that it would add soymeal to its index and reduce soyoil holdings for 2013.

• Prospects for a large South American soybean crop hang over the market. Weather forecasts for central Brazil call for an "active rain pattern" for the next two weeks that should bolster crops, the Commodity Weather Group said.

• Yet logistics in Brazil remain a worry. Brazil's ports are among the slowest and most costly in the world due poor infrastructure, high taxes, excessive red-tape and deficient road and rail access, the country's private transport sector said in a report.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Thursday to their lowest in more than three years, as record stocks and concerns that U.S. fiscal woes might drag on global growth spooked investors.

Despite announcements of more monetary stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve, traders remained cautious as sharp differences on the 2013 budget persisted between Congressional Republicans and the White House, and negotiators warned the showdown could drag on past Christmas.
Record high stocks in Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm producer, also drove palm oil futures to their third straight daily loss.

"The market looks exhausted at current levels, and some correction is anticipated. But any bounce will be limited with supply seen at record levels," a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia said.

At the close, the benchmark February contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.6 percent to settle at 2,227 ringgit ($730) per tonne, slightly above its intraday low of 2,217 ringgit, a level unseen since November 2009.

Total traded volumes surged to 34,576 lots of 25 tonnes each after the midday break, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.

Traders will be counting on Malaysian exporters to use their tax-free export quota ahead of its year-end expiration and looking to stronger Chinese demand to bolster export figures for the first half of December.

India's monthly imports of cooking oil fell by a third in November, a trade body said, largely because of a drop in purchases of palm oil, as cold weather makes the commodity unusable and volatile prices deterred buyers.

Malaysia's new crude palm oil export tax for January is also in focus as analysts said the tax, likely to be set at zero, could boost exports of the crude grade and ease record stock levels.
In a bearish sign for palm oil, Brent crude slipped toward $109 a barrel on rising U.S. oil stockpiles, while fears the world's largest economy might miss a deadline for next year's budget and risk a recession also kept bulls in check.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for January delivery BOZ2 lost 0.1 percent in late Asian trade. The most active May 2013 soybean oil contract DBYcv1 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 0.6 percent lower.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets ended mostly lower to flat on Thursday as investors cashed in on recent market gainers and a selloff in Unilever Indonesia due to the impact of royalty fee on profits weighed on the Jakarta bourse.

The Philippine index .PSI fell 0.6 percent, extending its loss for a second day and after Tuesday's rise to a record finish of 5,831.50. Shares of conglomerate Ayala Corp AC.PS, which hit an all-time high early in the week, slipped 2 percent.

After the market close, the Philippine central bank said it kept its benchmark interest rate steady at a record low of 3.5 percent, as expected, with economic growth expected to stay robust on the back of strong domestic demand.

The Philippines had gained 32.4 percent so far this year, slightly ahead of Thailand's 32 percent rise. Both markets are among the best performing markets worldwide so far this year.

Jakarta's Composite index .JKSE edged down 0.4 percent after three sessions of gains. Shares of Unilever Indonesia UNVR.JK continued their slide for the second day as profit concerns prompted downgrades by many brokerages.

Stocks in Malaysia .KLSE advanced a modest 0.2 percent after late selling while Thailand .SETI finished down 0.06 percent, Singapore .FTSTI ended up 0.5 percent and Vietnam .VNI inched up 0.03 percent.