Tuesday, October 30, 2012

RTRS- Yen bears seen surviving any BOJ shortfall on easing front

TOKYO, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Should the Bank of Japan refrain from easing as strongly as the market expects at a policy review on Tuesday, the yen is likely to recover some lost ground, but futures and options market data suggests the yen's underlying bear trend will remain intact.

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to announce an expansion in its stimulus measures through an increase its asset buying and lending programme by at least 10 trillion yen, mostly via more government bond buying, though the measures could also include an additional small rise in purchases of riskier assets.

But bearishness towards the yen is based on more than expectations over what the central bank might do, with worries mounting over Japan's deteriorating trade balances and fiscal deficit.

"Positions in futures and options show foreign players are more convinced about a weaker yen trend compared to earlier this year or last year," said Takao Hattori, senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities in Tokyo.

Interest in buying dollar options have grown steadily, and dollar/yen risk reversals JPY1MRR=ICAP JPY3MRR=ICAP show a bias for yen puts/dollar calls gaining ground to near highest levels this year.

Expectations for a BOJ easing lifted currency speculators' bets against the yen last week, when the market posted a net short position for the first time since May at some 18,000 contracts.

If the BOJ does less than expected on the easing front, the yen could rally as speculators close these positions, but the recovery is likely to be shortlived.

Hattori reckoned the yen, which stood at around 79.70 to the dollar 0510 GMT on Monday, could recover to 78.80 to the dollar if short covering of the 18,000 contracts was triggered.

Hiroshi Maeba, head of FX trading Japan for UBS in Tokyo, said the scale of a yen recovery would depend on by how much any central bank measures undershot the market's expecations, but he also doubted whether the recovery would have legs.

"I doubt such a yen buying would push the dollar/yen below 79 yen," Maeba said, adding that he didn't expect the dollar to fall to year lows around 76-77 yen.

"What's changed since earlier this year is that yen buying has clearly been shrinking, flows surrounding the yen have changed," he said, noting factors like falling Japanese exports and Asian central banks' failure to boost yen assets.

While the dollar's downside may be limited, Japanese and foreign players are looking to sell the dollar near the 2012 highs around 84 yen, traders and analysts say.

"Foreigners see the yen as overvalued and want a catalyst to sell the yen," said Naohiko Baba, Japan chief economist at Goldman Sachs.

If the BOJ's move matches the most-expected scenario, the yen may ease by 0.3-0.4 yen against the dollar, but if the BOJ eases by less than expected the yen could recover 0.3-0.4 yen, Baba said.

For the dollar to firm to 80-81 yen, the spread between two-year U.S. Treasury and JGB yields would have to widen to 30 basis points from 20 bps currently, Baba said.

And for the dollar to weaken to 78.50 yen, the spread would have to narrow to 15 bps, he added.

Fundamentals, notably Japan's worsening trade position, suggest the yen is likely to move to a weaker trading range, even if the potential shifts in interest rate differentials don't point to a major breakout from current levels.

Japan's trade deficit from January to September was about 4.8 trillion yen, nearly double the deficit of around 2.5 trillion yen for the whole of 2011, Daisuke Karakama, market economist for Mizuho Corporate Bank, wrote in a recent research note.

"The interest rate differentials suggest the dollar/yen is not yet at a structural turning point, but supply/demand balances appear to point to a change," Karakama wrote. "We must brace for an upward shift in the (dollar/yen) range."

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Oct 29 (Reuters) - U.S. gasoline and heating oil futures gained while U.S. Treasuries also rose on Monday, as economic worries over Hurricane Sandy fueled safe-haven buying in thin trading as the powerful storm began to batter the U.S. East Coast.

The storm closed Wall Street on the anniversary of the 1929 stock market crash. It was the stock market's first weather-related closure in 27 years, and other markets closed early as investors braced for the impact of Sandy, one of the biggest storms ever to slam the U.S. eastern seaboard.

U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Tuesday, but the two-largest U.S. stock exchange operators, NYSE Euronext NYX.N and Nasdaq OMX Group NDAQ.O, intend to reopen Wednesday, conditions permitting.

 
Trading was thin in U.S. foreign exchange, fixed income, precious metals and energy markets as public transportation was shut in New York and parts of lower Manhattan were evacuated.

"You have uncertainties now. You have these safe haven purchases. People are trying to figure out the economic impact from the storm," said Larry Milstein, head of government and agency trading at R.W. Pressprich & Co in New York.

"Right now it's the easy way to buy Treasuries and wait to see what happens," Milstein said.

Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR traded 8/32 higher in price to yield 1.7206 percent.

U.S. heating oil futures gained, touching the highest level relative to U.S. crude oil on record, as dealers hedged against the risk of power outages and flooding from Sandy that could damage refineries and keep production shut for weeks.

The crack spread, the difference in value between a barrel heating oil and a barrel of crude oil, touched $45.15 a barrel.

"Markets will be watching for reports of damage to energy infrastructure, notably refineries, post-Sandy, given the state of extremely low gasoil inventories as we move into winter season," Deutsche Bank analysts said.

Gasoline RBc1 futures reached $2.8115 a gallon, the highest since Oct. 17, before paring gains as traders factored in the reduced demand for fuel with the almost total shut-down of eastern seaboard roads and airports.
In Europe stocks, led by insurers, fell on expectations Sandy-related damage will boost claims, while political jitters in debt-laden Italy cast shadows on the euro zone.

 
Euro zone blue chips .STOXX50E shed 0.7 percent to 2,478.84 points after former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi threatened to bring down the government of his successor, Mario Monti, which has appeased markets with its austerity agenda.

The broader MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS lost 0.26 percent to 327.74 points - on track for its worst monthly performance since May as doubts grow over the effect of the latest round of central bank efforts to boost activity.

The euro fell against the dollar and yen, hurt by uncertainty over whether Greece can agree to a deal on austerity and with no sign of when Spain might request aid.

The single currency was expected to stay subdued against the dollar and the yen, with investors preferring safe-haven currencies on renewed worries about weak earnings from top companies in the region.

The single currency was down 0.3 percent at $1.2898 EUR=, not far from a two-week low of $1.2881.

The dollar rose to a session high against the yen ahead of a Bank of Japan policy review on Tuesday at which the central bank is expected to further ease monetary policy.

The dollar was last up 0.2 percent at 79.80, the session peak JPY=.

U.S. consumer spending rose solidly in September, putting the economy on a firmer footing heading into the fourth quarter even though households had to pull back on saving to fund purchases.

But the rise in consumer spending will mask a pullback late in the year as businesses hold investments in anticipation of higher taxes and cuts in federal spending that will kick in beginning early next year if Congress doesn't act, said Ellen Zentner, senior U.S. economist at Nomura Securities in New York.

Positive surprises, including third-quarter U.S. growth data and signs of stabilization in China, have failed to persuade investors that the world economy can achieve lasting growth as multinational global companies have forecast weak revenues.

NYMEX-SINGAPORE, Oct 30 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures slipped to just above $85 a barrel on Tuesday, near the lowest in more than three months, as Hurricane Sandy shut East Coast refineries, roads and airports, reducing crude and fuel demand in the world's largest oil consumer.

 
• U.S. crude for December delivery CLc1 fell for the third straight session, down 41 cents to $85.13 a barrel by 2327 GMT. November gasoline futures RBc1 were down 0.36 percent to $2.747 a gallon, after climbing more than 5 cents on Monday.

• Hurricane Sandy, one of the biggest storms ever to hit the United States, lashed the densely populated East Coast on Monday, shutting down transportation, forcing evacuations in flood-prone areas and interrupting the presidential campaign.

• The supply of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel into the U.S. East Coast ground almost to a halt on Monday as the storm forced the closure of two-thirds of the region's refineries, its biggest pipeline, and most major ports.

• U.S. crude oil inventories were forecast to have risen for the fourth straight week as a result of increased imports, a preliminary Reuters poll of analysts showed. EIA/S

Crude inventories were seen up 1.5 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 26, before Hurricane Sandy began to cause large scale disruptions to oil refineries and pipelines on the East Coast.

• Iran has no plan to close the vital shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz, Defence Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi was cited as saying by state-run Press TV.

CBOT SOYBEAN-Oct 29 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell more than 2 percent on Monday, their biggest single-day drop in nearly a month, on crop-friendly weather forecasts for top producer Brazil, traders said.

• Uncertainty about the impact of Hurricane Sandy on the U.S. financial sector added pressure. Stock market executives, regulators and brokers agreed to close the U.S. stock markets again on Tuesday but a final decision had not been made yet to reopen on Wednesday.

• After soaking Brazil's southern soy states of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana, storms are expected to move northward in early November into the country's main center-west soy belt and northeast regions, which need more moisture.

• Local analyst Safras e Mercado said 28 percent of Brazil's crop had been sown, down from 41 percent at this time a year ago, but above the average 24 percent.

• Sales of Brazil's 2012/2013 soybean crop advanced one percentage point to 48 percent in the past week after holding steady for nearly a month, analyst Celeres said. The pace was well ahead of the five-year average of 23 percent.

• The U.S. Department of Agriculture said its weekly U.S. crop progress report, normally released on Monday afternoons, would be delayed due to federal office closings ahead of Hurricane Sandy. The USDA said the rescheduled release time would be announced when offices reopen.

FCPO-SINGAPORE, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures dropped on Monday after a long weekend break, as losses in other vegetable oil markets during the holiday and an export tax cut by Indonesia prompted traders to book profit.

Last Friday, U.S. soyoil BOZ2 lost 1 percent while the China soyoil contract DBYcv1 edged down 1.4 percent. Malaysian financial markets were closed for the Eid al-Adha holiday.

Selling pressure also mounted after the midday break on news that Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, would cut its palm export tax for November, a move that could hamper demand for Malaysian products.

Indonesia will cut the export tax to 9 percent, down from 13.5 percent in October, and lower the export tax for refined palm olein to 3 percent in November from 6 percent in October.

"Part of the fall is due to the market catching up after the holiday. The significantly lower export duty by Indonesia also put some pressure on prices," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

The benchmark January contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange slid 2.4 percent to close at 2,540 ringgit ($831) per tonne.

Total traded volumes stood at 36,345 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Palm oil prices rose to a near 1-month high at 2,615 ringgit last Thursday, after cargo surveyors reported higher Malaysia's palm exports for Oct. 1-25 compared to a month ago.

Traders will be looking for more trading cues from the full-month exports figure for October on Wednesday.

Technicals were bearish as a bullish target at 2,676 ringgit per tonne has been aborted, and a target at 2,379 ringgit has been established, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
Brent crude oil fell below $109 a barrel on Monday as refineries along the U.S. East Coast wound down operations ahead of the approach of Hurricane Sandy, reducing crude use in the world's largest oil consumer. O/R

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 edged down 0.7 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active May 2013 soybean oil contract DBYcv1 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 1.4 percent lower.

REGIONAL EQUITY-BANGKOK, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Malaysian shares ended slightly higher on Monday as favourable earnings underpinned buying in banks such as Public Bank PUBM.KL, while Philippine shares regained some ground lost early as a Moody's upgrade lifted sentiment in banking stocks.

Malaysia's main index .KLSE ended at 1,672.56, above Friday's record close of 1,671.89. Public Bank, which reported quarterly earnings growth early in the month, extended gains for an eighth session, up 2.1 percent to a record 15.74 ringgit.

Banks outperformed the broader market in Manila .PSI after Moody's Investors Service upgraded the foreign currency deposit ratings of four Philippine banks, including BDO Unibank BDO.PS, which was up 1 percent.

Weaker-than-expected third-quarter results of Southeast Asian firms have broadly weighed on sentiment in the region. Thai SET index .SETI edged down 0.17 percent after last week's 1.1 percent fall.

Singapore .FTSTI fell 0.9 percent to the lowest close in more than one month, with Citigroup saying that third-quarter corporate earnings will likely leave investors with weakened expectations.