Monday, April 2, 2012

RTRS-US corn stocks plummet, supply squeeze tighter

US corn stocks down 38 pct from Dec 2011 March 1 stocks 2 pct smaller than expected Soybean stocks up 10 pct from year ago Soy stocks 1 pct smaller than trade expected

WASHINGTON, March 30 (Reuters) - The U.S. corn stockpile is down 8 percent from a year ago, the government said on Friday, with consumption running faster than traders expected.

The corn stockpile is forecast to shrink to 801 million bushels by the end of this marketing year on Aug 31, for the smallest tally in 16 years. The new government report pointed to a bare-bones supply when the fall harvest begins.

In a quarterly report, the Agriculture Department said there were 6.009 billion bushels of corn in storage as of March 1, 2 percent less than traders expected. Some 3.6 billion bushels were consumed during the quarter, equal to 30 percent of the 2011 crop.

Traders estimated consumption would be 4 percent smaller than USDA estimated. USDA surveyed 84,500 growers and all 8,900 commercial storage facilities to develop its figures.

Soybean stocks were estimated by USDA at 1.372 billion bushels, up 10 percent from one year ago but 1 percent smaller than traders expected. Some 994 billion bushels were consumed since Dec 1.

Wheat stocks totaled 1.201 billion bushels, according to USDA, down 16 percent from a year ago and 2 percent less than traders expected.

RTRS-US corn plantings reach 75-year high, top expectations

USDA survey estimates 95.9 million acres of corn *Soybean, spring wheat acres seen down from last year

WASHINGTON, March 30 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers say they will plant 95.9 million acres of corn this spring to cash in on strong prices, a 75-year high that tops expectations due to surprise reductions in soybean and spring-wheat plantings.

An annual prospective plantings survey by the U.S. Department of Agriculture found farmers will plant record amounts of corn in Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Idaho. Nationally, the plantings outlook is up 4 percent from last year and above analyst expectations for 94.72 million acres.

Soybean plantings are expected to fall 1 percent from last year to 73.9 million acres, increasing concerns about tightening global supplies of the oilseed due to poor harvests in South America. Analysts had expected soy plantings to increase to 75.393 million acres.

"Acreage is expected to shift to corn," the USDA said.

Farmers are focusing on corn because prices remain historically high after reaching a record high last year on strong demand that drained supplies. The increase in plantings should help boost supplies, which are forecast to drop to the lowest level since the mid 1990s by the end of the crop's marketing year in September.

If USDA's forecast is realized, it will be the most corn planted since 1937, when an estimated 97.2 million acres were planted.

UDSA estimates farmers will plant 12 million acres of spring wheat other than durum, with a record low number of acres seeded in South Dakota. That is down 3 percent from last year and below the average trade estimate of 13.313 million acres.

USDA's estimate for total wheat planted area of 55.9 million acres is up 3 percent from 2011 but well below the average analyst estimate of 57.422 million acres.

Growers intend to plant 13.2 million acres of cotton, down 11 percent from last year, and 2.56 million acres of rice, down 5 percent.

The acreage estimates imply a corn harvest of 14.5 billion bushels, a soy harvest of 3.2 billion bushels, wheat harvest of 2.1 billion bushels and cotton harvest of 18 million bales, according to Reuters calculations that assume a normal number of abandoned acres and normal weather and yields.

RTRS-UPDATE 1-China 2011/12 soy imports seen up 8.9 pct y/y -CNGOIC

BEIJING, March 30 (Reuters) - China, the world's top soy importer, is expected to import about 57 million tonnes of the oilseed in the year to Sept. 30, up 8.9 percent from the previous year, according to the latest estimate from an official think-tank.

Chinese crushers have increased imports to meet robust demand from the livestock breeding sector as the industry has also expanded crushing capacity this year.

The estimate from the China National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC) is higher than a projection for 55 million tonnes by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

"China's imports in the coming months will increase significantly," and crushers will step up purchases of cargoes for July-October delivery following the weakening of Chicago Board of Trade soy prices <0#SOY:>, it said.

So far, crushers have booked only 20 to 30 percent of their normal needs for the period, the center said in a report. See www.grain.gov.cn

U.S. soy prices slipped for the third day in a row, notching their biggest weekly slide in two months, as investors also chose to exit some of their record long holdings in the oilseed in broad-based, risk-off dealings before Friday's U.S. government crop report. [GRA/]

The center expected soy arrivals in May to peak at 5.8 million tonnes, the highest monthly import since June 2010, while imports for March-April would exceed 4 million tonnes.

"We also think the USDA forecast is low. China has expanded its crushing capacity quite a lot this year and the government has increased imports for its state reserves," said a trading manager at a state-owned trading house.

State-owned COFCO Co Ltd maintained its earlier forecast of as much as 58 million tonnes for 2011/12 at a conference this week, in line with an earlier estimate by a company executive.[ID:nL3E7ME09F]

Some Chinese buyers have shifted to importing from the United States for May-July shipments, the peak sales season for the South American crop due to port congestion in Brazil, the world's top soy exporter, traders said.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, March 30 (Reuters) - World stock markets advanced on F riday, posting double-digit gains for the quarter, as economic reports showing U.S. consumer spending and sentiment still on the rise helped buoy stock prices and undercut the desire to hold bonds.

U.S. government debt prices fell, marking the end of a tumultuous first quarter for Treasuries, marked by their worst three-month period since the fourth quarter of 2010.

But stocks on Wall Street ended their strongest quarter in more than two years. Investors flocked to consumer-oriented shares after data showed U.S. consumer spending rose by the most in seven months in February and consumer confidence rebounded to its highest in more than a year in March.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 66.22 points, or 0.50 percent, to 13,212.04. The S&P 500 Index <.SPX> gained 5.19 points, or 0.37 percent, to 1,408.47. The Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> dipped 3.79 points, or 0.12 percent, to 3,091.57.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, March 30 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures edged up on Friday on ongoing concerns about Iran and supply disruptions, improved consumer sentiment and a weak dollar, as oil prices posted a 4.2 percent gain in the first quarter.

Crude futures' trading trajectory was choppy and prices jumped late in the session after the Obama administration said there is enough global oil supply to allow countries to cut imports from Iran.

U.S. President Barack Obama was required by law to determine by March 30, and every six months after that, whether the price and supply of non-Iranian oil are sufficient to allow consuming nations to "significantly" cut their purchases from Iran.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude rose 24 cents, or 0.23 percent, to settle at $103.02 a barrel, having traded from $102.78 to $104.15.

CBOT SOYBEANS- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed higher after U.S. Department of Agriculture's U.S. 2012 soybean plantings figure came in below trade expectations.

Soymeal and soyoil also ended higher.

USDA reported U.S. 2012 planting intentions at 73.902 million acres, below a range of trade estimates for 74 million to 76.7 million.

USDA confirmed sales of 120,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in 2012/13.

ICE Canada canola futures surged about 2.4 percent and hit a 13-1/2-month high on Monday following the release of USDA's U.S. planting intentions figures.

Some U.S. analysts noted that the CBOT new-crop soybean/corn ratio has surged in favor of soybeans this month, a factor that could encourage more soybean acres in the coming months.

USDA reported U.S. March 1 soybean stocks at 1.372 billion bushels, roughly in line with the average trade estimate of 1.387 billion.

China, the world's top soy importer, is expected to import about 57 million tonnes of the oilseed in the year to Sept. 30, up 8.9 percent from the previous year, according to the latest estimate from official think-tank CNGOIC. The estimate is higher than USDA's forecast of 55 million tonnes.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, March 30 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures extended its losing streak into a third day on Friday, as traders grew cautious ahead of a key U.S. report on soybean plantings and stocks, although healthy demand for the edible oil
curbed losses.

Palm oil futures started the week strongly, going close to 3,500 ringgit on expectations of a shift in demand to the tropical oil as soybean supplies were tight in drought-hit South America.

But some gains were given up later on in the week as market players took profit ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's quarterly inventory report and planting forecast due later in the day.

Benchmark June palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.7 percent to close at 3,433 ringgit ($1,121) per tonne. This week the market went as high as 3,497 ringgit, a level unseen since March 10 2011.

Traded volumes stood at 21,018 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITY- March 30 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets mostly gained on Friday to end the first quarter on a strong note, with Malaysian equities closing at a record high on strong foreign inflows and shares in Indonesia climbing to an eight-month top.

Despite volatility in the markets on concerns over slowing economic growth in China and the United States, the region witnessed strong foreign inflows for the week with Malaysia leading, followed by Indonesia.

Malaysia, the worst performing bourse in the region so far this year with a 4.29 percent return, saw 1,339.97 million ringgit ($436.83 million) in foreign inflows for this week.

Foreign investors in the past have been interested mostly in Malaysia's government securities, but now are turning their attention to equities, said Gerald Ambrose, managing director, at Aberdeen Asset Management in Malaysia.