Thursday, May 3, 2012

RTRS- SocGen ups 2012 soybean price forecast

May 2 (Reuters) - Societe Generale on Wednesday lifted its 2012 soybean price forecasts saying the continued declines in South American production have rapidly depleted both the U.S. and global soybean inventories.

The French bank raised its average 2012 soybean price forecast to $14 per bushel from $12.50 a bushel.

"We continue to expect soybean prices to peak in Q2-12, assuming normal weather during the US growing season this summer," SocGen said in a research note to clients.

Given the precariously tight soybean inventories, the bank said it expects the recent price action to continue until more clarity is gained on the state of the U.S. crop.

RTRS- Top U.S. grain group concerned about expanded CBOT hours

CHICAGO, May 2 (Reuters) - Longer trading sessions at the benchmark Chicago grain futures markets will raise costs for U.S. grain merchants and could put some at a competitive disadvantage, the nation's largest grain group said on Wednesday in response the CME Group's plan for 22 hours of trading.

The CME Group on Tuesday said beginning May 14 it will expand grain futures trading to 22-hour sessions, a move it said would give users near round-the-clock access to the markets. The move also would compete directly with the InterContinentalExchange , which will launch competing grain contracts.

The National Grain and Feed Association said there was "significant concern" about the market being open when the U.S. Agriculture Department releases its crop reports.

"In particular, accessing those reports is not generally a quick and simple process," the NGFA said in a statement. "There may be competitive advantages for firms or individuals who are able to access and process report information earlier than others."

A NGFA spokesman was not immediately available to comment on what types of traders would have the advantage on report days, which typically attract the heaviest trading volume and produce the wildest price swings.

The CME's move to 22 hours of trading came shortly after ICE said it will list look-alike wheat, corn and soy contracts that trade on a 22-hour basis.

NGFA, which has thousands of members from grain facilities, food processors, biofuel makers and exporters, also said it would be asking the CME for more details about its plans for price settlement and other matters.

CME has said it will move to a blended settlement procedure, using prices from both pit and electronic trading, beginning in June. The exchange initially planned a transition to the new settlements for both grains and livestock futures in March and April but that plan was met with strong opposition from floor traders.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 2 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and the Dow edged lower on Wednesday as data showed that private sector hiring fell far more than expected in April, sparking concerns that Friday's U.S. jobs report will also disappoint investors.

Private employers added 119,000 jobs in April, well short of the 177,000 expected, the ADP report showed. That sparked market rumors that Friday's payrolls data will show the economy added just 125,000 to 150,000 jobs last month, well below a Reuters consensus forecast of 170,000.[ID:nL1E8G22DM]

"If fewer and fewer people are participating in this recovery it suggests underlying weakness that we have to address, and so far policymakers' answers have been 'easy credit' - I think we need to go beyond that," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago.

The report came on the heels of more glum news from Europe. Euro zone factory activity contracted again last month, with the purchasing managers index, seen as a measure of how the economy will fare, falling to its lowest level since June 2009. [ID:nL5E8G223R]

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 10.75 points, or 0.08 percent, to 13,268.57. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> fell 3.52 points, or 0.25 percent, to 1,402.30. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> gained 9.41 points, or 0.31 percent, to 3,059.85.

The Dow on Tuesday hit a four-year high on strong manufacturing data, while the S&P 500 has struggled to make a meaningful rise above the 1,400 resistance level. Still, the S&P is up more than 11 percent for the year.

Adding to the negative tone on Wednesday, new orders for U.S. factory goods in March recorded their biggest decline in three years, even though they slightly topped forecasts. [ID:nCAT2GE847]

"What the market needs is a sign that the economy is not getting worse. Yes, the growth is slow, but it's still there," said Ralph Edwards, director of derivatives sales and trading at ITG in New York.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 2 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell on Wednesday, pressured by data showing rising crude oil inventories and by weak economic data from the United States and Europe that reinforced concerns about demand for petroleum in a global economic slowdown.

U.S. crude inventories rose a sixth straight week, to the highest level since 1990, adding 2.84 million barrels in the week to April 27, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report. [EIA/S]

Expectations in a Reuters survey of analysts was for a rise of 2.5 million barrels.

More pressure on oil was provided by a government report showing new orders for U.S. factory goods in March recorded their biggest decline in three years. The Commerce Department said orders for manufactured goods dropped 1.5 percent after a revised lower 1.1 percent rise in February. [ID:nCAT2GE847]

Oil received pressure early from news that the euro zone's manufacturing sector slipped further into decline last month as a downturn appears to be taking root among core members France and Germany, a survey showed.

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude fell 94 cents, or 0.89 percent, to $105.22 a barrel, the 50-day moving average for front-month crude, having traded from $104.91 to $106.05.

* Iran said it would seek an end to sanctions over its nuclear activities at talks with big powers later this month and it sought to turn the tables on its Western foes by accusing France of helping Israel develop "inhumane nuclear weapons." [ID:nL5E8G29P4]

* Saudi Arabia repeated on Wednesday that it would not tolerate threats to the Gulf Arab states' sovereignty, the latest warning to Iran after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to an island claimed by both Tehran and the United Arab Emirates. [ID:nL5E8G2H29]

* An oil products tanker collided with a floating offshore drilling rig as it headed inbound in the Aransas Pass Channel near Corpus Christi on the Texas Gulf Coast, the U.S. Coast Guard said. [ID:nL1E8G2KV9]

* Russian oil production edged down 0.3 percent to 10.33 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, to its lowest this year, after Gazprom trimmed output due to a refinery maintenance closure, energy ministry data showed. [ID:nL5E8G20Z1]

CBOT SOYBEAN- May 2 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell more than 1 percent on Wednesday on technical selling including long liquidation and pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar, traders said.

* Most-active July soybeans fell nearly 1.3 percent, the biggest drop in six weeks, and fell below Monday's low in the final minute of trade.

* Funds hold a record-large net long position in CBOT soybeans, leaving the market open to periodic bouts of long liquidation.

* Continued soybean deliveries weigh on nearby contracts, pressuring old crop/new crop spreads. CBOT reported 576 deliveries against the May contract.

* The U.S. dollar index <.DXY> rose, indicating less investor appetite for risky assets such as commodities, after weak data on euro zone manufacturing and U.S. private-sector hiring fueled concerns about a global economic slowdown. [MKTS/GLOB]

* Societe Generale lifted its average 2012 soybean price forecast to $14 a bushel, from $12.50, saying the continued declines in South American production have rapidly depleted both the U.S. and global soybean inventories. [ID:nL4E8G29PD]

* USDA confirmed sales of 204,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in 2012/13 and sales of 30,000 tonnes of U.S. soyoil to China for delivery in 2011/12. [ID:nW1E8FB03O]

* CME to expand CBOT grain and oilseed trading hours on its electronic Globex platform beginning on May 14. [ID:nWNAB5908]

* Soggy weather for at least the next 10 days in the U.S. Midwest will slow corn and soybean seedings but add valuable moisture to soil. "It looks like pretty narrow window of opportunities for planting for the next 10 days," said Jason Nicholls, meteorologist for AccuWeather.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, May 2 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged lower on Wednesday as expectations of higher production offset strong exports and an uptick in global economic activity.

Strong factory activity data from the United States signalled the world's biggest economy was on a recovery track, although palm investors are looking at other cues in a market that has traded in a tight range for two weeks. [ID:nL4E8G130T]

"Exports were strong but that is not the only factor. When exports were down 15 percent in the middle of April, the market also didn't respond very strongly," said James Ratnam, an analyst with TA Securities in Malaysia.

"All these things have an impact on futures prices, but people are also looking at the bigger picture."

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange inched down 0.6 percent to close at 3,452 ringgit ($1,140) per tonne.

Traded volumes stood at 27,369 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

The focus for palm oil has now shifted to production, which is expected to be pick up in April compared to a month ago, traders said.

"We have exports which were up by 10 percent. So since the futures prices are not going up, there is an expectation that production will also be up by a double-digit percentage," said a Singapore-based trader with a commodity house.

Traders earlier feared that export demand for Malaysian oil will be down due to Indonesia's lower export tax for refined palm oil.

Yet April exports jumped by almost 10 percent from a month ago, thanks to strong demand from major food buyers China and India. [PALM/ITS] [PALM/SGS]

Malaysia's policy response to Indonesia's favourable tax structure may come after the government lists its plantation assets in a $3 billion IPO, said top industry analyst Dorab Mistry. [ID:nL3E8FR5L3]

Palm oil will fall to 3,397 ringgit per tonne based on technical analysis, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. [ID:nL4E8G21PZ]

Oil eased on Wednesday, as weak economic data in Europe hit the demand outlook, countering more positive figures from China and the United States. [O/R]

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, May 2 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets rose on Wednesday, with benchmark indexes in the Philippines and Indonesia rising to all-time highs, as strong

U.S. economic data boosted investor appetite for risky assets, particluarly the region's energy and commodities stocks.

Jakarta's Composite Index <.JKSE> ended at 4,219.3, surpassing its previous record reached on April 3, while the Philippine index <.PSI> finished at 5,228.84.

Thai main SET index <.SETI> marked a new 16-year high, with foreign investors buying shares for a net 628.87 million baht ($20.45 million) on the day, Thai bourse said.

Malaysia also reported foreign inflows Of 210 million ringgit ($69.40 million), stock exchange data showed.