Thursday, November 1, 2012

Trader's Highlight


DJI- NEW YORK,Oct 31 (Reuters) - Wall Street resumed trading on Wednesday with shares ending near break-even after monster storm Sandy forced a two-day closure due to weather for the first time since 1888, but U.S. gasoline futures surged in the face of potentially long-term supply disruptions at the East Coast's second-largest refinery.

The storm left swaths of the region crippled by flooding and power outages, suggesting lower fuel consumption. But gasoline futures for November hit their highest level in more than two weeks as traders scrambled to cover positions ahead of the contract's expiry later Wednesday.

U.S. lumber futures soared on expectations for increased demand, while gasoline surged on concerns that a Phillips 66 refinery in Linden, New Jersey, could shut for an extended period after Sandy cut power to the plant that produces 238,000 barrels a day of fuel.

The storm, which killed at least 64 people, may cause up to $15 billion in insured losses, according to one disaster-modeling company. Speculators were behind much of the buying in lumber and gasoline futures in anticipation of rising demand, traders said.

"You see a lot of funds hedging themselves and speculation there could be a lot of damage" from Sandy, said Richard Ilczyszyn, chief market strategist and founder of iitrader.com LLC in Chicago.

Contracts for November, January and March lumber futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose by the daily trading limit of $10 per thousand board feet and remained locked at those levels, effectively shutting down trading.

Many traders were unable to get to their offices or work from home because of wide-ranging power outages and no or limited public transit across the region.

The New York Stock Exchange re-opened, though not everything was back to normal. Cell phone reception was sketchy on NYSE's floor, so traders milled outside to make calls, e-mail or text.

"The open was a positive relief after four days of sitting on edge," said Larry Leibowitz, chief operating officer at the exchange's operator, NYSE Euronext. "No matter how much planning you do, you can’t foresee that kind of flooding.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 10.67 points, or 0.08 percent, at 13,096.54. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 0.22 points, or 0.02 percent, at 1,412.16. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 0.36 percent, or 10.72 points, at 2,977.23.

For the month, the Dow fell 2.5 percent, the S&P 500 slipped 2 percent and the Nasdaq was off 4.5 percent.

MSCI's all-country world equity index was up 0.01 percent at 329.16, on track for its first monthly loss since May. The index has gained more than 10 percent so far this year.

In Europe, stocks dipped after a mixed batch of corporate earnings, pressured by heavyweight British oil and gas firm BG Group, which warned of no production growth next year.

The FTSEurofirst 300 closed down 0.6 percent at 1,096.38. BG slumped 13.7 percent to 1,147.5 pence, the biggest loser on Britain's blue-chip FTSE 100 index.

Crude oil prices were mixed, with Brent crude closing below $109 a barrel. Brent for December delivery  fell 38 cents to settle at $108.70. U.S. light sweet crude oil settled up 56 cents at $86.24 a barrel.

U.S. Treasury debt prices rose on month-end extension trades as trading resumed after Sandy shut the bond market for a day and a half.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was up 4/32 in price to yield 1.6962 percent.

The euro edged up against the dollar and headed toward its third straight month of gains. But uncertainty about the heavily indebted euro-zone economies was set to limit further strength.

The euro rose 0.01 percent against the dollar to $1.2957.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Oct 31 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose on Wednesday, as traders continued to assess the impact of Hurricane Sandy on East Coast oil infrastructure and awaited government oil inventory data delayed until Thursday because of the massive storm.

U.S. crude posted a second straight monthly decline, falling 6.5 percent in October.

CBOT SOYBEANSoybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose for a second day on technical buying, including short-covering after Monday's heavy sell-off, and concerns about planting delays in South America, traders said.

* Traders attributed some of the buying to funds adjusting end-month positions. CBOT front-month soybeans fell about 3 percent for the month of October.
  • Soymeal gained against soyoil on inter-market spreads.
  • Soybeans supported by ideas that planting delays due to excessive rain in Argentina and dry conditions in northern Brazil may push back the harvest, extending the time period when the United States dominates the soy export market.
  • Analysts expect USDA's crop progress report later on Wednesday to show the U.S. soybean harvest as 88 percent complete. The report's release was delayed by two days because of federal office closings this week for Hurricane Sandy.
  • Rain and wind in the eastern U.S. Midwest this week slowed the harvest of remaining corn and soybeans and may have caused some crop loss, but drier weather is expected soon.
  • Deliveries against CBOT November soybean futures on first notice day totaled 500 contracts, at the high end of trade expectations of zero to 500 contracts.
USDA confirmed sales of 25,000 tonnes of U.S. soyoil to China for 2012/13 delivery. 

FCPO- KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures inched down on Wednesday as the strongest exports recorded for this year may do little to cut into high stocks at a time when output is surging in the world's second largest producer of the edible oil.

Cargo surveyor data showed that Malaysian palm oil shipments in October climbed to about 1.6 million tonnes -- the highest this year, although stocks are set to hit another record beyond 2.48 million tonnes. 

"Based on the shipment number, we will still end up with a higher stockpile because October's production is still very high," said OSK Research analyst Alvin Tai. "Exports rising higher month-on-month is not surprising, but the quantum still needs to be stronger."

The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed 0.2 percent lower at 2,496 ringgit ($819) per tonne. Total traded volumes stood at 28,495 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly higher to the usual 25,000 lots.

Technicals showed that the bearish target of 2,379 ringgit per tonne for Malaysian palm oil has been adjusted to 2,468 ringgit based on its falling speed, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Palm oil dropped to a two-week low earlier this week after its biggest rival and top producer Indonesia planned to lower monthly export taxes in November after international prices fell this month.

The lower taxes will lift margins for Indonesians and shift demand away from competing Malaysian products. Officials in Jakarta said they will not alter their tax structure which is aimed at driving its domestic palm oil downstream industry.

"The export tax structure is progressive and it has been adjusted to fluctuated palm oil prices in the international market," director general of agriculture-based industry Benny Wachjudi said at an industry meeting.

"It is very different from the Malaysian government's export tax policy. I am sure Malaysian export tax policy will not last long because it is not adjusted to the development on palm oil prices in the international market."
Brent crude held steady near $109 a barrel on Wednesday after the huge storm Sandy whiplashed the U.S. East Coast, reducing fuel demand even as refineries in the region gradually resumed operations.

U.S. soyoil for December delivery inched up 0.7 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active May 2013 soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 0.7 percent.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks mostly fell on Wednesday, with Indonesia and Malaysia under mild selling pressure after recent gains to record highs. Thai shares recouped earlier losses amid late buying into battered blue chips such as Kasikornbank.

Jakarta's Composiste Index finished down 0.3 percent at 4,350.29, coming off Tuesday's record close of 4,364.59. It was up 2.06 percent on the month, the region's second best after Malaysia's 2.22 percent gain in October.

Malaysia's main index closed at 1,673.07 , ending a five-day rising spell. T he Philippine index ended nearly flat, with a monthly gain of 1.5 percent. Manila will be closed on Thursday and Friday for market holidays.
The Thai SET index was up 0.3 percent, ending October nearly unchanged. Kasikornbank rose for a second session, climbing 1.1 percent to the highest in more than two weeks.

Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange VN Index eased 0.37 percent, extending its losses for a third session. It fell for the sixth month in October, down 1.1 percent.