RTRS- Oil World sees Europe's 2012 sunflower crop down 11.7 pct

AMSTERDAM, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Sunflower seed production in the European Union, Ukraine and Russia will drop 11.7 percent to a total of 24.82 million tonnes this year, from 28.12 million tonnes a year ago, Hamburg-based oilseed analyst Oil World said on Tuesday.

"We are now in a transition period, when sunseed oil (fob Black Sea) is still offered competitively to soya oil (fob Argentina) to the major importing countries of North Africa and India owing to more attractive freight costs," Oil World said.

" But the prospective large decline by 3.3 million tonnes in this year's combined sunseed production i n the European Union and the CIS countries will enforce a reduction in crushings and strengthen the prices of sunseed, oil and meal in the next months, spilling over also to rapeseed and products."

Oil World has cut its estimate for sunflower production in the EU member states to 7.22 million tonnes from 7.87 million tonnes previously because of drought in Central and Eastern Europe as well as in Spain.

Sunflower production in key exporters Ukraine and Russia is forecast to decline to 17.6 million tonnes from 19.9 million tonnes in the previous year.

"Above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall have taken their toll in the development of corn and sunseed in Russia and Ukraine," Oil World said in its weekly edition.

The decline in sunflower production in the Black Sea region will reduce the region's export supplies and limit the imports to the EU to up to 350,000 tonnes, it said.

Last year, the EU member states whose sunflower production totalled 8.22 million tonnes - a million tonnes above this year's forecast - imported 322,000 tonnes of sunflower seed from Ukraine and Russia.

RTRS- Little relief seen from US drought despite cooler trend

CHICAGO, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Midday weather maps indicate drier conditions this week for the already drought-stricken U.S. crop region than earlier forecasts had shown, an agricultural meteorologist said on Tuesday.

"The big thing is less rain from the Plains into the Delta, basically the mid-South. It now looks dry for the Delta while earlier indications were for up to 0.50 inch," said Drew Lerner, a meteorologist for World Weather Inc.

The U.S. Delta, located roughly in the lower Mississippi River Valley basin, is a lush farming region known for large areas of soybean, cotton and rice production.

Lerner said roughly a half inch of rain was now expected later this week in the drought-stricken Plains where early outlooks had indicated downpours of up to 2.0 to 4.0 inches (5 to 10 cm) in states such as Oklahoma and south central Kansas.

For the balance of the Midwest corn- and soybean-growing area, cooler and damper weather in the U.S. crop belt over the next week will slow further deterioration from the summer stress of the worst drought in more than a half century.

"Corn is too far gone to help at all but some of the northern soybeans may be helped, but the beans in the central and south are too stressed to come back," said Don Keeney, a meteorologist for MDA EarthSat Weather.

Keeney said up to 60 percent of the U.S. Midwest should receive 0.25 inch to 1.00 inch of rain this week and the U.S. Plains states should receive a welcome 0.30 inch to 1.00 inch.

Cooler weather is in the cards for the next 10 days with highs in the 70s degrees Fahrenheit and 80s F rather than the relentless 90s F and 100s F that had been slashing crop prospects, Keeney said.

"It's going to be fall-like weather for the next 10 days. There is a warm-up again in the 11- to 15-day forecast but not the heat we've seen all summer," Keeney said.

Commodity Weather Group (CWG) on Tuesday said half of the Midwest would receive scattered showers but dry spots would likely expand from 30 percent of the Midwest currently to at least 40 percent over the next week.

"This will include parts of central Illinois, western Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri and southern Wisconsin," said CWG meteorologist Joel Widenor.

"Expanding rains in the Plains and Delta will help to improve pre-planting moisture for winter wheat areas and will also ease stress on double-crop Delta soybeans," he said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report released on Monday showed the U.S. corn conditions stabilizing after nine weeks of ratings declines and the soybean crop conditions increased slightly.

However, the ratings for each crop remained at their lowest levels since the last serious drought in 1988.

As the worst drought in more than a half century took its toll, investors went on a buying spree, boosting corn prices more than 50 percent from late May to record highs above $8 per bushel.

The USDA on Friday released data showing deep cuts for this year's corn and soybean output as the drought spread through America's breadbasket.

The USDA said this year's corn crop would fall below 11.0 billion bushels for the first time in six years and the number of bushels yielded per acre was a 17-year low. Soybean production was forecast at a five-year low and soy yield per acre nearly a 10-year low.

Analysts and crop experts said additional cuts may be seen in future reports.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks ended little changed on T uesday after early gains supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales numbers faded, while oil prices rose on tepid growth data in Europe that underpinned hopes for fresh monetary stimulus.

A rise in U.S. retail sales in July, the first increase in four months, added to uncertainty in the bond market over whether growth has slowed to the point at which the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to launch a new round of stimulus when it meets next month. Treasury prices fell.

Prices of German government bonds also fell after data showed that France and Germany, the euro zone's two biggest economies, had withstood a contraction in the currency bloc in the second quarter.

The U.S. retail sales data propelled gains in the dollar against the yen and pushed down the price of gold.

Analysts have expected equities would struggle to move higher from current levels on low volume as traders hope for new easing measures from U.S. and European central bankers.

"There was a bit of a late skid into the close. It could simply be some profit-taking. We have had a good rally," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati.

The S&P 500 is within a stone's throw of new four-year highs, leaving investors looking for new catalysts to move the market higher. Traders reckon the latest batch of weak data from Europe would pressure the European Central Bank, the Fed or both to act.

The economy of the 17-nation euro zone contracted by 0.2 percent in the second quarter, although Germany eked out growth of 0.3 percent. But even there, a forward-looking sentiment indicator pointed to poorer performance ahead.

The latest European data kept alive expectations for stimulus, without unnerving investors who are looking for clues on whether the Fed, the European Central Bank or both will help their economies with more bond purchases.

The euro zone data followed worrying Chinese trade figures on Friday and Monday's report showing a slowdown in growth in Japan. Both lent support to the view that central banks will be forced to act as early as next month to boost flagging global growth.

In the United States, the retail sales gains for July, which at 0.8 percent marked the biggest increase since February, followed other data on housing and jobs that have raised hopes that an earlier economic slowdown may prove to be temporary.(nL6E8JE81F)

The Standard & Poor's 500 index hit its highest level since May 1. The S&P has risen for seven of the last eight sessions, with concerns of risk from Europe's debt crisis still casting a cloud.

"Today's data are supportive of the stock market. That's a healthy development," said David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Boston.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI closed up 2.71 points, or 0.02 percent, at 13,172.14. The S&P 500 Index .SPX ended down 0.18 point, or 0.01 percent, at 1,403.93. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC finished down 5.54 points, or 0.18 percent, at 3,016.98.

In the bond market, U.S. Treasuries and German Bund prices fell as traders reduced their safe-haven holdings in the wake of the less-dire growth data on German and France.

"I don't expect the Fed will be doing anything for at least a month and the same for the ECB," Ameriprise's Joy said.

Benchmark U.S. 10-year notes US10YT=RR were down 18/32 in price at 99-2/32 with the yield at 1.727 percent, up 6 basis points. Earlier, the 10-year yield was close to its 100-day moving average of 1.7443 percent, which is a technical indicator that U.S. yields might head higher.

"As sentiment improved during the past couple of weeks, the demand for bonds as a perceived safe haven has diminished, and the bond market has started to decline," said chief macro strategist Gary Thayer at Wells Fargo Advisors in St. Louis, Missouri.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose on Tuesday on supportive U.S. retail sales data and ongoing potential threats to Middle East oil supplies, ahead of weekly U.S. petroleum inventory reports that were expected to show a drawdown.

 

CBOT SOYBEAN- Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures ended mixed after a choppy session, with most-active November SX2 down on profit-taking and improving crop weather in the U.S. Midwest, traders said.

* Cooler, wetter weather in the U.S. Midwest over the next week should slow further crop deterioration from the worst drought in more than a half century, although updated midday forecasts removed some of the expected rains. (nL2E8JE39T)

• Nearby soybean contracts underpinned by bullish monthly crush data. The National Oilseed Processors Association reported the U.S. soybean crush for July at 137.380 million bushels, above an average of trade estimates for 132.5 million. (nL2E8JE30L)

• August soybeans SQ2 surged on short-covering ahead of the contract's midday expiration and settled up 23-3/4 cents at $16.80 a bushel. Open interest was down to 280 contracts ahead of the trading session.

• CBOT soymeal futures closed higher, gaining against soyoil on meal/oil spreads.

• USDA on Monday said 30 percent of the U.S. soybean crop was rated in good to excellent condition, an improvement from 29 percent the previous week.

• The crop continues to develop ahead of the normal pace. USDA said 83 percent of the crop had reached the pod-setting phase by Aug. 12, ahead of the five-year average of 70 percent. US/SOY

• Sunflower seed production in the European Union, Ukraine and Russia will drop 11.7 percent to a total of 24.82 million tonnes this year, from 28.12 million tonnes a year ago - analyst Oil World. (nL6E8JE4BT)

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures hit a fresh 10-month low on Tuesday as improving output and slower exports in the Southeast Asian country stirred concerns over swelling stocks.

On top of that, recent rains in the United States that could raise harvest forecasts for soybeans helped ease some concerns over tightening global oilseed supply and weighed on edible oil markets in Asian trade. (nL2E8JD51T)

Traders also avoided taking long positions ahead of export data for the first half of August due on Wednesday.

"Tomorrow's exports are unlikely to be good, and production could climb even higher in August. Prices should be supported at the 2,800-ringgit level," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

At closing, benchmark October palm oil futures FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped 0.5 percent to 2,858 ringgit ($918). The contract earlier touched a low of 2,820 ringgit, a level not seen since Oct 18 last year.

Total traded volumes were high at 31,724 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.

On the technicals front, palm oil has support at 2,838 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. (nL4E8JD0J3)

Malaysia's palm oil inventory level touched its highest since February at nearly two million tonnes in July, snapping four straight months of losses, thanks to improving output and lacklustre demand. (nK7E8EU01A)

But rising production may not last till the end of the year with Australia's weather bureau on Tuesday saying El Nino was in its early stages, potentially bringing dry weather to Southeast Asia and hurting some palm oil output. (nL4E8JE174)

The market will be watching fresh export data on Wednesday after a sluggish showing for the first 10 days of August. PALM/ITS PALM/SGS

Weaker demand from China and Europe has also weighed on Indonesia as the top palm oil producer lowered its estimate for exports to 17.6 million tonnes in 2012, an official from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said late on Monday.(nL4E8JD37J)

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets ended higher on Tuesday buoyed by strength in large-cap banks and commodities-related stocks such as Singapore's Noble Group Ltd NOBG.SI, sending the index to a one-year closing high.

The Singapore Straits Times Index .FTSTI was up 0.75 percent at 3,087.84, with shares in commodities firm Noble surging 12 percent after it reported a 39.3 percent rise in its April-June net profit. (nSN4NHkLJ)

In Bangkok, the SET index .SETI extended its gain for a sixth session, adding 0.6 percent to 1,226.82, its highest close in more than three months.

Top lender Bangkok Bank Pcl BBL.BK rose 3.1 percent to 203 baht, its highest level seen since late 1996 amid good buying interest in banks seen as a beneficiary of a growth in domestic economy.

Elsewhere, Malaysia's main index .KLSE rose for a fifth session, ending up 0.4 percent at a record closing high of 1,652.90. Indonesia .JKSE gained 0.5 percent, reversing Monday's 0.9 percent fall.

Vietnam .VNI advanced 0.8 percent to the highest close in almost two months. Bucking the trend, the Philippines .PSI eased 0.1 percent, halting a two-day rising streak.