Friday, March 15, 2013

RTRS - NOPA February U.S. soy crush seen at 141.6 mln bushels


CHICAGO, March 14 (Reuters) - The National Oilseed Processors Association's monthly soybean crush data scheduled for release on Friday should show the U.S. crush for February at 141.6 million bushels, a poll of seven analysts projected.

If realized, the figure would represent the largest NOPA February crush since 2010.

Trade estimates ranged from 138.3 million to 144.0 million bushels. NOPA reported the January crush at 158.195 million bushels, the second-largest monthly total in three years. The group reported the year-ago crush for February 2012 at 136.350 million bushels.

The average analyst estimate for NOPA's February U.S. soyoil stocks figure was 2.771 billion lbs, down from NOPA's January figure of 2.823 billion. The analysts' estimates ranged from 2.648 billion to 2.863 billion lbs.

NOPA reported year-ago February 2012 soyoil stocks at 2.242 billion lbs.

NOPA this year began releasing its data at noon EDT (1600 GMT) on the 15th of each month.

Trader's highlight


NEW YORK, March 14 (Reuters) - The Dow Jones industrial average extended its winning streak to 10 days on Thursday, a string of gains last seen in late 1996, and ended at another record high as investors were encouraged by data showing the labor market's recovery was improving.

The S&P 500 took a late-day run at its record closing high of 1,565.15, but ended just 2 points away. The 30-stock Dow Jones industrial average has been setting record highs since last week, when it rallied on March 5 to initially surpass its previous lifetime closing peak set in October 2007.

U.S. equities have accelerated their run higher without a major consolidation since the start of the year, driven by improvement in the economy and the Federal Reserve's continuation of its easy monetary policy.

"It's simply a natural progression for prices to move to new highs in order for the market to advance. I don't think it's scaring investors," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York.

"Fund flows really have reversed direction, and money started moving out of money markets and some from fixed income to equities. This kind of trend doesn't change easily so we can expect a lot more to come in."

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 83.86 points, or 0.58 percent, to 14,539.14, a record closing high. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 8.71 points, or 0.56 percent, to 1,563.23, about 2 points from its record closing high of 1,565.15, set on Oct. 9, 2007.


Oil Futures - NEW YORK, March 14 (Reuters) - U.S. oil futures rose to the highest settlement price in two weeks on Thursday as data showed an improving U.S. labor market in the world's largest oil consumer.

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, data from the U.S. Labor Department showed. 

"As long as we have signs that economic conditions are not going to slow, we'll see improvement," said Gene McGillian, analyst and broker with Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.

Stock market gains also helped support crude oil prices. The Dow Jones industrial average extended gains for a 10th straight day on the labor market data. 

The U.S. dollar retreated from a seven-month high against a basket of currencies as some currency traders cashed in profits.

A weaker U.S. dollar helped buoy U.S. crude oil prices. Because crude is priced in U.S. dollars, when the value of the currency drops, oil generally becomes more expensive to offset the dollar's weakness.

U.S. crude oil futures settled 51 cents higher at $93.03 per barrel.

Brent crude for April settled 90 cents per barrel higher, or 0.83 percent, at $109.42 as the contract expired.
Oil slipped earlier in the session as investors focused on a subdued outlook for demand growth in the United States and China, easing supply concerns.

Two of the three most closely watched oil forecasters - the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - lowered global oil demand growth forecasts this week. The third, OPEC, flagged downside risks to the outlook.

The EIA on Tuesday cut its 2013 world oil demand growth forecast by 40,000 barrels per day to 1.01 million bpd.

Comments by China's central bank on stabilizing inflation expectations reinforced concern it may drop its pro-growth policy before economic expansion gathers full momentum. The remarks pressured most markets in Asia.

Supply concerns have taken a back seat for now.

South Sudan said on Tuesday it would be ready to restart oil production, which was shut down for more than a year, within three weeks, and on Wednesday a U.S. government report said crude stockpiles rose last week.

OPEC production is expected to trend higher as Saudi Arabia adds to supplies in coming months. Saudi Arabia expects to raise its oil output in the second quarter, oil industry sources said last month.

Saudi cut back its output in the last two months of 2012 because of weaker Asian demand and a lower domestic need for crude in power plants, among other factors.


CBOT SoybeanMarch 14 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a third straight session as the expanding Brazilian soybean harvest eased supply worries and export demand from top buyer China slowed, traders said.
  
·         The May soybean contract dipped below its 50-day moving average at $14.33, dropping to $14.29, but settled above it at $14.35-1/2.

·         Traders noted talk that falling soy crush margins in China are limiting Chinese demand for U.S. and Brazilian soybeans.

·         Brazilian dock workers postponed a nationwide strike planned for March 19 but are considering a strike on March 26. The move eased concerns about worsening shipping delays as Brazil aims to export its record-large soy crop.
 
·         The average trade estimate ahead of the National Oilseed Processors Association's February U.S. soy crush report on Friday was 141.6 million bushels, down from NOPA's January figure of 158.195 million. 

·         Trade expects NOPA to report a slight decline in U.S. soyoil stocks, with an average estimate of 2.771 billion lbs, down from NOPA's January figure of 2.823 billion.

·         USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 657,700 tonnes for 2012/13 and 126,000 tonnes for 2013/14. The combined-year total of 783,700 tonnes was the lowest in three weeks.

·         USDA reported weekly export sales of soymeal at 51,700 tonnes, below expectations, and soyoil sales at 6,000 tonnes, roughly in line with expectations.


BMD CPO - SINGAPORE, March 14 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell to a two-month low on Thursday, dropping for a third straight session on persistent weakness in soy markets, while traders watch for upcoming export data to gauge demand.

U.S. soybean prices have been pressured by poor exports and increased competition from South American supplies as traders said Brazilian beans were now being offered at competitive prices.

Palm oil investors are still counting on a seasonal drop-off in production that could ease stocks and support prices. Export demand is also in focus as cargo surveyors will release Malaysia's March 1-15 export data on Friday.

"We are all expecting the market to move up due to the low production season but the weakness from the soy side is pulling down palm as well," said a Singapore-based trader with a global commodities house.
Palm oil tends to track soybean oil prices closely as they are substitutes for each other.

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had slid 1.3 percent to 2,366 ringgit ($760) per tonne, just above its intraday low of 2,360 ringgit, the lowest level since Jan. 14.

Total traded volume stood at 29,364 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly higher than the usual 25,500 lots.

Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said Malaysia's export demand for the March 1-10 period was almost flat with a month ago, while another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance, reported a slight 2.2 percent increase for the same period.

Palm oil prices may face further pressure as traders said significantly lower crude palm oil shipments and record high stocks at destination ports may weigh on exports for the rest of the month.

In other markets, Brent crude held steady below $109 a barrel on Thursday on concerns over demand growth from top two consumers China and the United States, while a firm dollar added pressure on prices.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for May delivery edged down 0.7 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract  on the Dalian Commodities Exchange had lost 0.7 percent.


Regional Equities - BANGKOK, March 14 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets mostly ended weak on Thursday as some worries about the euro zone weighed on broader Asia, with overbought Indonesia falling to its lowest in more than a week and the Philippines sliding as its central bank kept the benchmark rate intact.

Jakarta's Composite Index ended down 1 percent at 4,786.37, extending losses for a third session after setting a record close of 4,874.49 on March 8.

Its 14-day relative strength index had stayed higher than an overbought mark of 70 and above since mid-Feb and ended at 72.27 on Thursday, higher than most of its peers.

The market noted $2.1 billion in foreign inflows year-to-date, topping $1.64 billion in inflows in full year 2012, when it relatively underperformed others in Southeast Asia.

The Philippines' main index was down 1.2 percent, its fourth straight session of loss, ending at 6,694.71, the lowest close since March 4. Its central bank kept its benchmark interest rate steady at a record low of 3.5 percent as expected.

Bucking the trend, the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange's VN Index was up 0.3 percent after two sessions of losses. The Thai index pared early losses to end up 0.5 percent at 1,586.79, its highest close since January 1994.

Last month, CLSA upgraded its end-2013 target for the benchmark index to 1,650, partly reflecting higher confidence that Thailand's infrastructure investment will materialise.

The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 0.3 percent while the MSCI index of Southeast Asia was down 0.4 percent.