Monday, June 18, 2012

RTRS-UPDATE 1-Informa raises U.S. corn, soy plantings estimates

CHICAGO, June 15 (Reuters) - Private analytical firm Informa Economics raised its estimate of U.S. 2012 corn plantings to 96.759 million acres (39.2 million hectares), from its previous forecast of 96.124 million, trade sources said Friday.

Informa's latest figure is above the U.S. Department of Agriculture's March 30 corn plantings forecast of 95.9 million acres, which, if confirmed, would represent the most U.S. acres seeded to corn since 1937.

Informa also raised its U.S. 2012 soybean plantings estimate to 75.959 million acres, from 75.822 million in its last estimate, issued May 4.

The firm's latest soybean estimate is 2 million acres higher than USDA's March forecast of 73.9 million acres.

Informa left its estimate for seedings of U.S. spring wheat (other than durum wheat) at 13.476 million acres, unchanged from its May forecast. Informa projected U.S. 2012 all-wheat plantings at 57.6 million acres, also unchanged from its May forecast.

USDA projects U.S. all-wheat plantings at 55.9 million acres.

Informa officials had no comment on the figures, but the firm said in a note to clients that its estimates were based on a survey conducted in late May and early June, along with an evaluation of planting developments in the first half of June.

The firm noted that planting got off to an unusually early start across the U.S. Corn Belt and progressed quickly, with few interruptions.

"The rapid corn planting is believed to be a feature in the corn acreage being up 600-plus thousand acres from Informa's May estimate as planting momentum added corn acreage versus earlier expectations," the note said.

RTRS-Brazil grain industry raises '11/'12 soy estimate

SAO PAULO, June 14 (Reuters) - Brazil's grain industry association Abiove said on Thursday it estimates the 2011/12 soybean crop that finished harvest in May at 66.2 million tonnes, up slightly from the 65.9 million tonnes forecast in April.

Brazil harvested a record 75.2 million tonnes of soybeans in the previous crop. Drought over the grain belt cut the current crop's potential by about 10 million tonnes.

The association said it expects exports of soybeans to reach 30 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous forecast. Brazil exported a record 33.8 million tonnes from the 2010/11 crop.

Abiove does not explain why it adjusts its estimates, which are based on a survey of associated crushing plants.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, June 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rallied on Friday to close a second straight week of gains on hopes of collective action from global central banks if Sunday's election in Greece triggers market turmoil.

The news helped offset the latest round of weak U.S. economic data, which pointed to sluggish domestic growth. But traders were cautious and safe-haven U.S. bond prices also rose on Friday.

Materials <.GSPM>, energy <.GSPE> and financial <.GSPF> shares led the market's gains, with each of the three S&P 500 sector indexes up 1 percent or more. Officials of the Group of 20 leading nations told
Reuters on Thursday that central banks of major economies would take steps to stabilize markets and prevent a credit squeeze, if necessary.
The news spurred sharp gains late in Thursday's session. Later reports of the European Central Bank hinting at an interest-rate cut and Britain's pledge to flood banks with cash sparked further bullishness.

"It pokes a hole in the balloon of bad news after more bad news," said Richard Sichel, chief investment officer of Philadelphia Trust Co.

"None of the (U.S.) economic data we saw today were impressive. The gains seem to be based more on hope and less on the economic reports."

For the week, the Dow industrials gained 1.7 percent, the S&P 500 added 1.3 percent and the Nasdaq rose 0.5 percent. Despite the stock market's gains, the safe-haven U.S. Treasury 10-year note shot up 18/32 in price, with the yield at 1.579 percent.

On Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 115.26 points, or 0.91 percent, to 12,767.17 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> added 13.74 points, or 1.03 percent, to 1,342.84. The Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> rose 36.47 points, or 1.29 percent, to end at 2,872.80.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, June 15 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended little changed on thin volume Friday as investors awaited crucial elections in Greece this weekend, although hopes were up that central banks would counteract any negative results from the poll.

Economic worries also prompted investors to limit exposure, after data showed weak U.S. manufacturing activity in May and a survey revealed that consumer confidence fell in early June to a six-month low.

The slowing U.S. recovery and a deepening debt crisis in Europe have increased the odds of a further easing of monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve, although economists are divided on whether the central bank will act when it meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.

After OPEC decided on Wednesday to hold its output target steady at 30 million barrels per day for the second half of the year, Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri said members will reduce currently higher-than-ceiling production and that effects should be seen in July.

Analysts were skeptical, however, as any reduction would mostly come from Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for July delivery ended up a second day and settled at $84.03 a barrel, rising 12 cents, or 0.14 percent. For the week, it edged down 7 cents, following a 1 percent gain in the week to June 8.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Nearby soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a third day by the close of pit trading as traders liquidated long positions to guard against adverse market reaction to the weekend election in Greece.

Front-month soybeans unofficially ended the week down 3.5 percent, the third decline in the past four weeks.

Back months, including new-crop November , ended higher on worries about warmer weather in the U.S. Midwest.

However, light showers are expected this weekend in dry areas of the southern Midwest, which will ease stress on the crop.

USDA confirmed sales of 382,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans, mostly to China, and cancellation of 147,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for delivery this year. The new purchases included 262,000 tonnes to China for delivery in 2012/13 and 120,000 tonnes to unknown destinations for 2011/12.

Informa Economics raised its U.S. 2012 soybean plantings estimate to 76.0 million acres, from 75.8 million previously, traders said. The firm's figure was more than 2 million acres above USDA's last forecast of 73.9 million acres.

Brazil's grain industry association Abiove on Thursday raised its estimate of the country's 2011/12 soybean crop to 66.2 million tonnes, up slightly from 65.9 million forecast in April.
CBOT soyoil ended higher as meal/oil spreads unwound.

Malaysian palm oil futures closed slightly higher, driven by rising exports and stronger global markets, although gains were limited by jitters ahead of the Greek election this weekend.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, June 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures closed slightly higher on Friday, driven by rising exports and stronger global markets, although gains were limited by jitters ahead of the Greek polls set for this weekend.

Investors took comfort in the news that major central banks were preparing to take steps to stabilise financial markets, providing support for palm oil prices.
A jump in Malaysian palm oil exports for June 1-15 also suggested that demand remained resilient, but palm oil chalked up a weekly loss of 4.2 percent as the global economic uncertainty outweighed supportive fundamentals.

The market's a bit higher today, but it didn't go up by much. Traders are staying on the sidelines waiting for this weekend to see how the Greece election is going to turn out," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

Benchmark August palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained just 0.1 percent to close at 2,848 ringgit ($902) per tonne. Prices earlier touched 2,839 ringgit, a level unseen since Oct. 20, 2011.

Traded volumes stood at 24,632 lots of 25 tonnes each, a tad lower than the usual 25,000 lots, on investor caution.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, June 15 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets rose on Friday, posting gains on the week, as a rebound in global oil prices boosted energy shares.

Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> ended the day 1.3 percent higher, reversing two straight days of lossses, as investors regained some confidence from plans by major central banks to limit potential fallout following this Sunday's Greek elections.

For the week, the Straits Times Index rose 2.7 percent, after five weeks of losses.
Thailand's key SET index <.SETI> climbed 1.1 percent as market investors bought recently beaten down large caps, including refiners.

The SET index gained 3.4 percent on the week, making it Southeast Asia's best performer.