Friday, January 30, 2009

Trader's Comment: CPO futures ended higher on late covering activities ahead of long weekend.

CPO futures ended higher on late covering activities ahead of long weekend. Benchmark Apr09 climbed back slowly from intra day low of 1720 after flat opening as tracking some slight rebound of eCBOT soy oil and Asian time crude oil following their respective overnight losses. It then traded in the range of 1765-1720 through out most of the sessions before some aggressive pre-weekend short covering activities came in and pushed up CPO prices in the late trading hour. Benchmark Apr09 hit intra day high of 1787 before it finally settled RM34 higher at 1779. Total daily volume accelerate to 13,970 contracts changed hands. Traders were waiting for the January export data, which is due to be released on next Tuesday. BMD will be closed on Monday for the Federal Territory Day.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Jan 29 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks tumbled on Thursday, derailing a four-day surge in the S&P and Nasdaq as poor earnings, coupled with a fresh wave of bleak labor market and housing data, heightened fears of a deep recession.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> slid 226.44 points, or 2.70 percent, to 8,149.01. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> tumbled 28.95 points, or 3.31 percent, to 845.14. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> dropped 50.50 points, or 3.24 percent, to 1,507.84.

Before Friday's opening bell, investors will scrutinize the government's first snapshot of fourth-quarter gross domestic product, which measures all goods and services produced within U.S. borders.

The GDP report, due at 8:30 a.m. (1330 GMT), is expected to show the economy contracted by at least a 5.4 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter -- the worst since the first quarter of 1982.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, Jan 29 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended with pared losses on Thursday, helped by a rally on gasoline futures amid concerns about a potential strike among unionized U.S. refinery workers, who are in the thick of contract negotiations, analysts said.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, March crude settled down 72 cents, or 1.71 percent, at $41.44 a barrel, after trading from $40.18 to $42.32.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- March down 12 cents to $9.70-1/2 a bushel; May down 12-1/4 at $9.77-3/4.

Improved crop weather in Argentina triggering sales. Prices keep within recent ranges, failing to break out of recent highs.

Census Bureau said U.S. December soy crush 141.37 million bushels, above average estimate for 140.8 million.

CBOT-SOYOIL - March down 0.54 cent per lb to 32.37 cents. Pressure from drop in soy and sagging crude price.

Census Bureau said U.S. soyoil stocks at the end of Dec. 2.657 billion lbs, below average estimate for 2.7 billion.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil fell 2.1 percent to more than three-week lows on Thursday, pressured by weak crude and slowing shipments, although traders said drought hurting South American soyoil could spur demand.

The benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed down 37 ringgit to stand at 1,745 ringgit ($484.8), a level unseen since Jan. 5

Other traded contracts fell between 17 and 41 ringgit <0#KPO:>. Overall volume slumped to 6,982 lots of 25 tonnes each from about 10,000 lots as many traders were still away for Lunar New Year following market closures on Monday and Tuesday.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-Asian stocks elsewhere climbed as investors took heart from
the U.S. Congress making headway on a $825 billion stimulus spending package and other efforts to stem the financial crisis.

Malaysian shares <.KLSE> rose 0.4 percent, Indonesia <.JKSE> was up 0.24 percent although Manila <.PSI> was down 0.5 percent. Singapore shares <.FTSTI> ended flat after a 4.8 percent gain
on Wednesday.

DJI Daily: Gave up all its gain


Market reversed and gave up all its gain. 8000 mark remains the key support. Resistance maintains at 8600.

KLSE Daily: consolidation


Market continue its consolidation mode. We maintain the upside resistance at 888-889 (gap left over on 20/1/2009). Downside support is at 868-867.

FKLI Daily: disappointed bull rebound


Market failed to hold ground after a sharp rebound. As for now, we look for the upside resistance at 890 followed by 902.5-907 (gap left over since 14/1/2009). Downside support is pegged at 872.5-870.5 (gap left over on 28/1/2009) followed by 865-860.

FCPO Daily: sideways to bias downside potential


Market extended its losing streak and continue losing momentum to bias downside potential. We continue to look for the downside support at 1738-1723 followed by 1706-1695 (gap left over on 2/1/2009). While, upside resistance at 1790 followed by 1815-1825 (gap left over on 28/1/2009).

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures slid down further as it continued losing its momentum in a very quiet trading day.

Palm oil futures slid down further as it continued losing its momentum in a very quiet trading day. Benchmark Apr09 immediately hit the morning low of 1755 after a mix start at 1786. Easier eCBOT coupled with gloomy market sentiment sent prices to slid lower to 1755 before it bounced back to close at 1776 for the morning break. Prices continue to be under pressure but trading in thin and lack luster mood. It hovered mostly between 1750 to 1760 before a late selling activity emerged and sent Benchmark Apr09 to intra day low at 1739 before it finally settled RM37 lower at 1745. Total daily volume remains thin as many traders were still away for the Chinese New Year holiday.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Jan 28 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, capping the S&P 500's longest winning streak since November, as financial stocks soared on optimism the Obama administration was making progress on a plan to relieve banks of money-losing assets.

Stocks initially added gains following the Federal Reserve's statement that it is prepared to buy long-term U.S. government debt, but the boost faded upon the realization that the Fed's purchases won't be made any time soon.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> finished up 200.72 points, or 2.46 percent, at 8,375.45. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> climbed 28.38 points, or 3.36 percent, to 874.09. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> ended up 53.44 points, or 3.55 percent, at 1,558.34.

When trading resumes on Thursday, investors are also likely to focus on the U.S. House of Representatives' approval late Wednesday of an $825 billion economic stimulus bill. The House voted 244 to 188 to pass the bill containing President
Barack Obama's program for emergency spending and tax cuts. The measure next goes to the U.S. Senate for debate, starting probably sometime next week.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, Jan 28 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended higher on Wednesday, supported by a rally in refined product futures and despite U.S. government data showing a much larger-than-expected weekly build in oil stocks.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, March crude settled up 58 cents, or 1.39 percent, at $42.16 a barrel, trading from $40.60 to $43.60. Tuesday's 9.08 percent loss was the steepest in percentage terms since prices dropped 12.25
percent on Jan. 7.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - March up 6-1/2 cents at $9.82-1/2 a bushel; May up 6-1/4 at $9.90. Technical buying after slipping below $10 on Tuesday. Worries about smaller South American crop despite recent rains in Argentina, third largest soy exporter, and forecasts for more, weigh.

Paraguay estimated its 2008/09 soybean crop at 3.8 million tonnes, 43 percent below the previous harvest of 6.8 million due to drought.

Brazil soy crop revised down to 57.7 million tonnes-AgRural.

Analysts expect U.S. Census Bureau to report December soy crush at 139.8-141.5 million bushels, versus 144.6 million in November. [

CBOT-SOYOIL - March up 0.14 cent at 32.91 cents per lb. Turned up with soybeans. Crude also firmer, rebounding from Tuesday's big drop on outlooks for government to report bigger weekly crude and gasoline stocks.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures slid 2.6 percent on Wednesday in light post-holiday trading after crude oil slumped and a cargo surveyor reported slower sales, fanning demand concerns.

The benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled down 48 ringgit at 1,782 ringgit($497.1) a tonne.

Other traded contracts fell between 34 ringgit and 50 ringgit. Overall volume dropped to 6,079 lots

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Singapore shares closed at their
highest in two weeks and Malaysian shares rose almost one percent on Wednesday after a two-day holiday, with Singapore's financials and Malaysia's plantation firms leading gainers.

Traders said investors were pumping cash into Singapore financials amid hopes that U.S. President Barack Obama's new stimulus package may help ease the credit crisis.

DJI Daily: 8000 mark defended well


Market spike up after stuck in range trading for quite sometimes. 8000 mark so far provide a good support. Resistance is now looking at 8600.

KLSE Daily: in steady move


Market remains calm and steady. Currently, we look for the resistance at 888-889 (gap left over on 20/1/2009). Downside support is at 868-867.

FKLI Daily: gaining ground


Market gaining ground following a long white candle printed after cover gap at 883.5-887 had brighten up the immediate technical outlook. As for now, we look for the upside resistance at 902.5-907 (gap left over since 14/1/2009). downside support is pegged at 872-870.5 (gap left over on 28/1/2009).

FCPO Daily: 1800 mark violated


Market continue to lose ground after 1800 mark failed to hold. We now looking for the downside support at 1738-1723. While, upside resistance at 1815-1825 (gap left over on 28/1/2009).

Trader's Comment: CPO futures declined after the Lunar New Year break

CPO futures declined after the Lunar New Year break following a sharp fall of more than USD 3/barrel in NYMEX crude oil and losses in CBOT soyoil prices. Weak exports data for 1-25 day released by private cargo surveyors had added pressure to the market momentum. ITS reported at 952,478 (-29%) whereas SGS pegged at 1.016.477 (-24%) compare the same period in last month. News on Oil World cuts South American 2009 soy crop forecast following Argentine soy crop hit badly by the worst drought had lending some support to the local front. Benchmark Apr 09 prices bounced back from the intra-day low at 1770 to close at 1803, down RM 27 by midday break. However, late liquidation activities emerged once prices unable to sustain further at 1800 mark. Apr 09 then dipped to settle at 1782, down RM 48. Trading remained in dull mode and thin as lack of participant due to most players still away for Lunar New Year holiday. Total daily volume stood at 6,079 contracts changed hands.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

DJI Weekly: remains in cautious mode


Overall technical landscape remains cautious as prices were hanging above 8000 mark closely. Failure to hold at 8000 mark again may see bear taking place more aggressively. Resistance is now looking at 8300-8360. Downside support is pegged at 7900-7880 level.

KLSE Weekly: Losing strength


Market looks losing strength as prices failed to hold. Currently, we look for the upside resistance at 900. Downside support is pegged at 835.

FKLI Weekly: Market momentum weaken further


Market momentum weakened further following another black candle printed. As for now, we are looking for the resistance at 900. Downside support is pegged at 831.

FCPO Weekly: moving Sideways


Market was in sideways move after the recent rebound yet 1800 mark was tried to defend. We are now looking for the upside resistance at 1897-1902. While, downside support is pegged at 1738-1723.

RTRS-Malaysia to hike palm tax threshold -paper

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Malaysia is expected to raise the windfall tax threshold for crude palm oil next month as planters face high production costs, the Edge Financial Daily reported on Friday, quoting an unidentified source.
The paper said the threshold could be raised to around 2,600-2,800 ringgit ($718-$774) per tonne from 2,000 ringgit now, with a finance ministry decision expected by February.
"The authorities are coming up with a compromise between the planters and the government for the long term," the source was quoted as saying.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-Argentina declares agricultural drought emergency

BUENOS AIRES, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Argentina's President Cristina Fernandez on Monday declared an agricultural emergency in areas affected by the worst drought to hit the country in four decades.
The state of emergency will allow farmers in affected areas to defer some tax payments for one year, Fernandez said.
The exchange on Friday cut its estimate for Argentina's 2008/09 soy plantings to 17.9 million hectares (44.2 million acres) from 18.2 million hectares (45.0 million acres) previously, citing the drought.

Breaking News-RTRS-Oil World cuts S.American 2009 soy crop forecasts

HAMBURG, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Forecasts for 2009 soybean crops in key exporters Argentina and Brazil were sharply cut because of drought, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
It now estimates Argentina will harvest 44.0 million tonnes of soybeans in early 2009, down from its previous estimate of 48.8 million and down from the 2008 harvest of 46.7 million.
It has cut its forecast of Brazil's 2009 crop to 57.50 million tonnes from its previous estimate of 59 million and down from 60.02 million tonnes harvested by Brazil in 2008.

Breaking News-RTRS -UPDATE 1-Indonesia keeps Feb palm oil export tax at zero

JAKARTA, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Indonesia is maintaining its zero percent palm oil export tax in February, while raising the crude palm oil base export prices to $482 a tonne from $418 a tonne in January, a trade ministry official said on Tuesday.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Better-than-expected corporate results lifted U.S. stocks on Tuesday, but oil prices plunged 9 percent as news of a fall in U.S. consumer confidence to a record low and tumbling home prices stirred concerns about demand.

Wall Street rallied for a third session in a row on hopes that despite the drumbeat of negative news, government efforts to stabilize the flagging U.S. economy will start to work.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 58.70 points, or 0.72 percent, at 8,174.73. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 9.14 points, or 1.09 percent, at 845.71. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> added 15.44 points, or 1.04 percent, at 1,504.90.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Jan 27 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures remained sharply lower in post-settlement trading on Tuesday after data from the industry group American Petroleum Institute showed a small increase in domestic crude and gasoline supplies.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, March crude at 5:15 p.m. EST (2215 GMT), last traded down $3.75, or 8.2 percent, at $41.98 a barrel. Earlier, it settled down $4.15, or 9.08 percent, at $41.58, trading from $41.41 to $47.49. The day's percentage loss was the steepest since prices dropped 12.25 percent on Jan. 7.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - March down 33 cents to $9.76 a bushel. Forecast for rain in drought-stricken Argentina, lower crude oil and firm dollar weigh on soybeans.

CBOT-SOYOIL - March down 1.00 cent to 32.77 cents a pound. Weak crude oil and lower soybeans weigh on soyoil.

FCPO
-JAKARTA, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures fell 2.1 percent on Friday as traders took profit from a recent rally ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, traders said.

The benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed 40 ringgit lower, or 2.1 percent, at 1,830 ringgit a tonne ($505).

Other traded contracts fell between 35 ringgit and 45 ringgit. Overall volume was at 10,048 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, Jan 27 (Reuters)-Thai shares closed at their highest in two weeks on Tuesday, lifted by gains in oil and shipping stocks, while Indonesian shares rallied to a one-week high on buying into big caps such as Bumi Resources.

Overall, regional markets tracked gains in the United States, although many major bourses remained closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Singapore <.FTSTI> and Malaysia <.KLSE> will resume trading on Wednesday, and Vietnam <.VNI> on Friday.

Trader's Comment: FCPO market gave up some of its gains to end lower.

FCPO market gave up some of its gains to end lower. Benchmark Apr 09 initially opened lower at 1840 as tracking losses in overnight CBOT soyoil prices. Trades were thin and move in tight range between 1840 to 1879 in most of the session. However, some intra-day liquidation activities comes in late session and saw prices dropped to the day low at 1825 before settling RM 40 lower at 1830. Total daily volume stood at 10,048 contracts changed hands.

Friday, January 23, 2009

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, Jan 22 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks slid on Thursday, after Microsoft's proposed job cuts and disappointing earnings shook investors, while economic data showed further deterioration in the labor and housing markets.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 105.30 points, or 1.28 percent, to 8,122.80. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 12.74 points, or 1.52 percent, to 827.50. The Nasdaq Composite Index slumped 41.58 points, or 2.76 percent, to 1,465.49.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, Jan 22 - U.S. oil futures surged late to end higher on Thursday, as investors took heart after the Obama White House said it must move quickly on an economic stimulus package.

The energy market's bounce from the lows followed Wall Street, which pared losses after the White House announcement.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, March crude settled up 12 cents. or 0.28 percent, at $43.67 a barrel, trading from $40.41 to $45.10.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - March down 8-1/2 cents at $10.12 a bushel.

Setting back after Wednesday's rally due to drought worries in Argentina, the world's third largest soy producer. Forecast for rains this weekend triggering profit taking.

CBOT-SOYOIL - March down 0.42 cent per lb at 33.53 cents.

Pressured by weakness in soybeans and crude oil.

FCPO - JAKARTA, Jan 22 - Malaysian crude palm oil futures rose 3.4 percent on Thursday to end at a one-week high, fuelled by rising crude oil prices and short-covering in late trade, traders said.

The market had been quiet for most of the day as a holiday mood settled in ahead of Chinese New Year holiday before the short-covering activities kicked in, they said.

The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange will be closed next Monday and Tuesday.

"We suddenly saw a lot of short-covering activities in the second half of the day due to the strength in crude oil and soyoil prices," a trader at a Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage said.

Another said active deals in the cash market during the day also lifted buying. "It is really unusual. I had expected a very slow day," the trader said.

The benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 61 ringgit, or 3.4 percent, to 1,870 ringgit ($518) per tonne, the highest finising since Jan. 15.

REGIONAL EQUITIES - BANGKOK, Jan 22 - Singapore's stock market ended off the highs on Thursday after the annual budget failed to dispel concern about the economy, while Thailand's index hit its highest in a week as firm oil lifted energy stocks.

Singapore's Straits Times Index ended 0.25 percent higher after rising 1.9 percent earlier. Big caps ended mixed, with developer CapitaLand falling 4.2 percent and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp down 0.6 percent.

Other Southeast Asian stock markets were helped by jumps in U.S. stocks on Wednesday, with Malaysia up 0.64 percent, Indonesia gaining 0.44 percent, the Philippines climbing 1.3 percent and Vietnam adding 0.36 percent.

Analysts said the regional stock market rally looked set to be short-lived as poor economic data would depress investors.

Trader's Comment: CPO futures reversed previous day losing streak to end generally higher.

CPO futures reversed previous day losing streak to end generally higher. Position squaring activities ahead of Chinese New Year holiday were evident in late trading session. Earlier trades were in dull mode stuck in the range of 1821-1838 with midday volume at 1,108 contracts which far below the average of 3000-4000. Surprise move came in late session boosted by position squaring activities. Benchmark Apr 09 pushed to the intra-day high at 1881 before settling RM 61 higher at 1870. Total daily volumes accelerated to 12,483 contracts changed hands. Another reason of position squaring may due to the higher initial margin charged for CPO futures which increase to RM 10,700 from RM 7,250 effective by today.

FCPO Daily: Cheer up a little


Market violated the support at 1860-1870 has cheer up a little the recent bored trading. Chart wise, consolidation phase may extended in near term. We continue to look for downside support at 1800-1790. Upside resistance is now looking at 1890-1900.

DJI Daily: in consolidation mode


Market extended its consolidation phase. Currently, we continue to look for the immediate support at 8000 follow by 7882-7449. For upside, resistance remains at 8300-8600.

KLSE Daily: remains sideway


Market covered the gap at 875-878 but failed to stay firm at 880 mark. Thus, we maintains sideways to lower view in near term market. Continue to look for downside support at 870-860. Upside resistance is at 888.

FKLI Daily: Limited upside


Upside looks limited as prices stuck in range trading and bias sideways potential. We continue to look for the support at 865-860 level. Upside resistance remains at 883.5-887 (gap left over on 20/1/2009) followed by 890.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

CPO Tender Summary and Delivery Location as on January 2009

Breaking News-(BN) Indonesia Says 2009 Palm Oil Output May Rise to 20 Million Tons

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia forecasts palm oil production will increase 5 percent this year to about 20 million tons, Akmaluddin Hasibuan, chairman of the nation’s palm oil association said in Jakarta today.

Breaking News-(BN) Indonesia May Waive Tax on Biofuel Sales, Workers Salaries

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The Indonesian government may waive value-added tax on sales of vegetable-derived fuels to help demand for palm oil.
The government plans to exempt sales of vegetable-derived oils used as a mix in fuels sold to companies from the tax, Bayu Krisnamurthi, a deputy for Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Sri Mulyani Indrawati, told reporters in Jakarta today.

Breaking News-RTRS-Indonesia Musim Mas gets green palm oil certificate

JAKARTA, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Indonesia's PT Musim Mas has been certified as the country's first firm to have adopted stricter sustainability standards in producing palm oil, Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyantono said on Wednesday.
Five other crude palm companies from world's biggest producer of the commodity are currently in the process of getting certificates, he said.

Breaking News-RTRS-Argentina slashes 08/09 soy area forecast

BUENOS AIRES, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Argentina's 2008/09 soy crop will be seeded on 16.5 million hectares (40.8 million acres) versus the 17.8 million estimated last month due to drought, the government's Agriculture Secretariat said on Wednesday.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Jan 21 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks jumped on Wednesday, rebounding from a two-month low, after a surprisingly healthy earnings report from IBM fueled optimism
that technology may fare better than other sectors during the recession.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 279.01 points, or 3.51 percent, to 8,228.10. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> rose 35.02 points, or 4.35 percent, to 840.24. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> climbed 66.21 points, or 4.60 percent, to 1,507.07.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Jan 21 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended more than 6 percent higher on Wednesday as the dollar's weakness prompted buying.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, March crude settled up $2.71, or 6.64 percent, at $43.55 per barrel, moving from $40.24 to $43.70, the highest since Jan. 7's $49.09.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - March up 28-1/2 cents at $10.20-1/2 a bushel. Supported by technical buying and worries that dry weather in Argentina damaging the crop there. Export inspections data also added strength to the market.

CBOT-SOYOIL- March up 0.14 cent at 33.95 cents a pound. Supported by rally in soybeans. Choppy trade in crude oil providing little direction.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures ended 1 percent lower on Wednesday, extending the previous day's losses due to concern about falling exports, traders said.

The benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was down 18 ringgit, or 0.99 percent, to 1,809 ringgit ($501) a tonne, coming off intra-day low of 1,792 ringgit.

Other traded contracts dropped between 16 and 45 ringgit. Overall volume was at 12,019 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Stocks in Southeast Asia extended
falls on Wednesday as signs of trouble in global financial sector continued to hold back appetite for equities, pushing down blue chips in the region such as Singapore's DBS and Thailand's PTT.

Singapore's benchmark index <.FTSTI> dropped for a second straight day to end down 1.1 percent, with lender DBS off 1.3 percent. The index sank to its lowest in more than one month in early trading after the government said the city-state
was in its worst recession ever.

Malaysian shares <.KLSE> fell for a seventh day running, ending 0.8 percent lower, while Thai stocks <.SETI> fell 0.5 percent.

Indonesian shares <.JKSE> dropped 1.7 percent, the Philippines <.PSI> was down 3.1 percent and Vietnam <.VNI> ended 0.9 percent lower.

Trader's Comment: CPO futures extended its consolidation mode to end in negative territory.

CPO futures extended its consolidation mode to end in negative territory. Market momentum was not much improving in a dull and lacklustre trading day. Weak opening for benchmark Apr 09 at 1810, down RM 17 after tracking losses in overnight CBOT and NYMEX crude oil on the back of stronger USD. Bargain hunting continues to take place coupled with some intra-day activities emerged. Prices were then holding well at 1800 mark despite hit the intra-day low at 1792. News on India won’t restore palm oil import tax as oilseed prices rise had helped to underpin the market sentiment. Late push up saw Apr 09 struggling to close at 1809, down RM 18 with total daily volume stood at 12,019 contracts changed hands. Switches between Mar/Apr/May were contributed about 30 per cent of the volume.

FCPO Daily: 1800 mark is holding firm


Market has been holding firm above 1800 mark for few days. Chart wise, consolidation phase may extended in near term. We continue to look for downside support at 1800-1790 followed by 1738-1723. Upside resistance remains at 1860-1870 followed by 1890.

DJI Daily: pulled back effect after sharp fall


Market pulled back after yesterday sharp fall. We remains cautious on the technical outlook as 8000 mark looks fragile. Currently, we continue to look for the recent low at 7882-7449. For upside, resistance remains at 8300-8600.

KLSE Daily: sideways


We maintains sideways to lower view in near term market. Continue to look for downside support at 870-860. Upside resistance is at 875-878 (gap left over on 21/1/2009).

FKLI Daily: immediate support at 865-860


Market looks had found a good support at 860-865 after the yesterday sell off. However, immediate daily technical outlook remains weak despite prices bounced back to close near the day high. For now, we continue to look for the support at 865-860 level. Upside resistance remains at 883.5-887 (gap left over on 20/1/2009) followed by 890.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Breaking News-BN-MALAYSIA CUTS OVERNIGHT POLICY RATE TO 2.50% FROM 3.25%

Breaking News-RTRS-INDIA FARM MIN SAYS INDIA RULES OUT CRUDE PALM OIL

NEW DELHI, Jan 21 (Reuters) - India has no plans to allow futures trading in rice and wheat, the farm minister, Sharad Pawar, said on Wednesday.
The government would also not levy any import tax on crude palm oil, he told reporters.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 2-India scraps basmati export tax, cuts floor price

NEW DELHI, Jan 20 (Reuters) - India has scrapped its export tax on basmati rice and cut the floor price for overseas shipments, the trade minister said, as the government cautiously lifts controls imposed last year to ensure domestic supplies.
A panel of ministers decided to cut the export tax to $1,100 per tonne from $1,200 per tonne, but did not impose an expected tax on crude palm oil imports, Kamal Nath told reporters late on Tuesday.

Breaking News-RTRS-China's soybean buying spree may end-Oil World

HAMBURG, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Recent heavy Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans may weaken as China builds up sufficient stocks but low South American sales may continue to boost U.S. soybean exports, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 2-China soy imports slow on extreme U.S. winter-trade

SINGAPORE, Jan 20 (Reuters) - China's robust soybean imports have slowed as extreme cold weather in the United States has hampered grain transport and movement of ships at leading ports, Asian traders said on Tuesday.

Breaking News-RTRS-S.American soybean crop losses looming-Oil World

HAMBURG, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Continued drought means that major soybean crop losses look probable in key South American producers Argentina and Brazil, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Wall Street ushered in the Barack Obama presidency with a record Inauguration Day drop on Tuesday amid fresh signs the global bank crisis was far from over.

High expectations for details on how the new administration would address the growing banking crisis and faltering economy were dampened after the inauguration speech concluded with little new information to digest.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 332.13 points, or 4.01 percent, to 7,949.09. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> slid 44.90 points, or 5.28 percent, to 805.22. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> tumbled 88.47 points, or 5.78 percent, to 1,440.86.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Jan 20 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended higher on Tuesday as traders covered short positions ahead of the February crude contract's expiration, narrowing the spread between the front month and March contracts to just above $2.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, February crude expired and settled up $2.23, or 6.11 percent, at $38.74 a barrel, trading from $32.70 to $39.55.

The day's bottom was a new contract low for February crude and it marked the lowest front-month price since $32.40 was struck on Dec. 19, 2008.

NYMEX March crude ended down $1.73, or 4.06 percent, at $40.84, trading from $39.11 to $43.79. The March contract low is $38.00. Other nearby months also were lower.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - March down 28 cents at $9.92 a bushel.

Firm dollar and profit-taking weighed on soy futures as did corn/soy spreading and some midday forecasts for improved rainfall in Argentina.

CBOT-SOYOIL - March off 0.78 cent at 33.81 cents a pound. Firm dollar pressures soyoil futures despite rebound in crude oil prices.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures finished 1.7 percent lower on Tuesday, hit by falling crude oil and soyoil prices, traders said.

The benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed down 32 ringgit, or 1.7 percent, to 1,827 ringgit a tonne ($506).

Other traded contracts fell between 14 and 28 ringgit. Overall volume was at 14,133 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks tracked a
slump in global equities on Tuesday amid growing concern about the world financial sector, with losses in financial shares dragging Singapore and Jakarta to their lowest in over a month.

Singapore led the regional losses, with the benchmark Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> ending down 1.35 percent after falling as much as 3.1 percent in early trade

On Monday Royal Bank of Scotland said it would record the biggest loss in U.K. corporate history, as Britain launched a second bank rescue plan that failed to restore confidence in the wobbly financial sector

Malaysian stocks <.KLSE> shed 1.1 percent to the lowest since Jan. 2, the Thai index <.SETI> slipped 0.6 percent, the Philippine index <.PSI> slid 1.3 percent to its lowest since Dec. 24 and Vietnam <.VNI> lost 0.7 percent to a near one-month low.

Trader's Comment: CPO futures fall on the back of weak market sentiment.

CPO futures fall on the back of weak market sentiment. Weaker NYMEX crude oil coupled with easier E-CBOT soyoil prices traded in Asian time had weighed on local front. First 20 days of January export data released by private cargo surveyors were came within market expectation with both ITS and SGS dropped more than 30 per cent compare to the same period last month. This has resulted benchmark Apr 09 remains under pressure with a tight range after the opening bell at 1818. Bargain hunting activities were saw prices surviving at 1800 mark by midday break. News on India may tax on CPO imports had prompted late selling interest emerged. Apr 09 hit the intra-day low at 1799. Some intra-day short covering helped to cushion the market momentum and sent prices to hit the day high at 1850. However, prices then eased off due to lack of follow through buying support. At the closing bell, Apr 09 settled at 1827, down RM 32 with total daily volume stood at 14,133 contracts changed hands.

FCPO Daily: 1800 mark try hard to defend


Give a big clap to 1800 as it tried hard to defend well. Market tested the 1800 mark intra-day basis but manage to climb back to close above it. Chart wise, market may extend its sideways mode. We continue to look for downside support at 1800-1790 followed by 1738-1723. Upside resistance is at 1860-1870 followed by 1890.

KLSE Daily: in weak tone


Market likely to extend its sideways to lower move in near term as tested the immediate support at 880. Currently, downside support is pegged at 870-860. Upside resistance is at 888-889 (gap left over on 20/1/2009).

DJI Daily: Cautious !! 8000 mark violated


As mentioned earlier, a break below of 8000 mark may indicate more room to downside potential. As for now, we are looking for the recent low at 7882-7449. For upside, resistance is at 8300-8600.

FKLI Daily: More room to downside potential


Market extended its losing streak and violated the support at 885-875 had dampened further the immediate technical landscape. We are now looking for the downside support at 865-860. Upside resistance is at 883.5-887 (gap left over on 20/1/2009).

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-India may tax palm oil, ease rice, wheat trade

NEW DELHI, Jan 20 (Reuters) - India may tax crude palm oil imports and relax export rules for wheat and basmati rice, the farm minister said, as tumbling prices and bumper crops allow it to unwind measures imposed last year to smoothen domestic supply.

Breaking News-RTRS-US stimulus not enough, TARP bailout misused-Soros

WASHINGTON, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The stimulus plan the U.S. government is currently considering is necessary to help American citizens, but it will likely not reverse the country's economic decline, hedge fund manager and billionaire philanthropist George Soros said on Monday.
"It is not enough to turn the situation around," Soros told the U.S. Conference of Mayors about the $850 billion proposal to increase spending and cut taxes.
The plan, which was introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives last week and will likely be passed by next month, will help state and local governments balance their budgets and preserve important social services, Soros said.
At the same time, the $700 billion financial bailout known as TARP for Troubled Assets Relief Program had been carried out in a "haphazard and capricious way" and "without proper planning," he said.

Breaking News-RTRS-Malaysia may scrap palm oil windfall tax-report

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Malaysia may scrap a windfall tax on palm oil if the price rises further, the country's commodities minister Peter Chin was quoted as saying on Monday by state news agency Bernama.
The Malaysian government in June imposed a windfall tax on crude palm oil sales of above 2,000 ringgit ($559.3) per tonne, following a surge in palm oil prices that in March rose to above 4,000 ringgit ($1,119) a tonne.

Trader's Highlight

FCPO-JAKARTA, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures finished 1.4 percent higher on Monday, underpinned by expectations of supportive data on exports for the first 20 days of January, traders said.

The benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 26 ringgit, or 1.4 percent, to 1,859 ringgit a tonne ($520).

Other traded contracts rose between 16 ringgit and 25 ringgit. Overall volume was at 10,407 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> closed up 0.96
percent.

Singapore's government is due to announce the state budget on Jan. 22 and the market expects it to contain incentives to help revive business and the economy, dealers said.

Stocks elsewhere in Asia were mostly lower, although investors were looking for U.S. President-elect Barack Obama to quickly roll out hefty economic stimulus spending and a revived plan to buy bad bank assets.

Thailand's stock index <.SETI> edged up 0.12 percent, Malaysia's <.KLSE> lost 0.69 percent, Jakarta stocks <.JKSE> slid 0.97 percent, the Philippine index <.PSI> fell 1.4 percent to its lowest since Dec. 24 and Vietnam <.VNI> was off 0.37 percent.

KLSE Daily: losing ground


Immediate daily technical outlook weakened further following prices continue to lose ground. Market may maintain sideways to lower move in near term with immediate support at 880. Immediate upside resistance is at 900 followed by 907-910 (gap left over on 15/1/2009).

FKLI Daily: Market momentum turns weak


Market momentum turns weaker following prices failed to sustain at 900 mark after covered some of the upside gap. Thus, we are now looking for the downside support at 885-875. For upside, resistance is at 902.5-907 (remaining gap left over since 15/1/2009).

FCPO Daily: struggle to survive at 18000 mark


Market looks struggle to survive at 1800 mark following prices has been hovering tightly between 1800 to 1870 level after covered the full gap at 1844-1856. Chart wise, market remains in sideways mode. We continue to look for downside support at 1800-1790 followed by 1738-1723. Upside resistance is at 1890-1900 followed by 1913-1935 (gap left over on 13/1/2009).

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures ended in positive territory after a lackluster trading day.

Palm oil futures ended in positive territory after a lackluster trading day. Benchmark Apr09 opened RM17 higher at 1850 tracking a higher overnight NYMEX crude oil and CBOT soy complex. It fell to 1838, fully covered its yesterday’s left over gap, but immediately bounced back again to hit the intra day high of 1872. It then began to hover between 1861-1843 level through out most of the sessions. Some profit taking activities appeared in late second session sent CPO prices to intra day low of 1833. Nevertheless, it was well supported and Benchmark Apr09 managed to push up into the earlier range before it finally settled RM26 higher at 1859. Trading volume was rather thin due to lack of fresh lead as eCBOT and Asian time crude oil closed. Tonight’s market (CBOT & NYMEX) will be closed for Martin Luther King’s holiday. Traders were also awaiting export data, which is due to be released tomorrow.

Monday, January 19, 2009

Breaking News-RTRS-Argentine soy crop suffering the drought - reports

BUENOS AIRES, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Argentina's 2008/09 soy crop is deteriorating due to a drought affecting much of the growing region, the Agriculture Secretariat said on Friday in a weekly crop progress report.
Record soy production is expected this year as farmers seed more lands than ever with the oilseed. But if dry conditions persist, the bright outlook could darken for the world's No. 3 soybean exporter and its top supplier of soyoil and meal.
Conditions could be improved in Argentina's central agricultural region by rains expected over the weekend, a report from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said.

Breaking News-RTRS-Informa sees 2009 US corn acres at 82.7 mln -trade

CHICAGO, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Analytical firm Informa Economics estimated U.S. corn plantings for 2009 at 82.7 million acres and soybeans at 80.8 million, trade sources said on Friday.
The firm's projections compare with 86 million corn acres planted in the spring of 2008 and 75.7 million soybean acres, based on U.S. Agriculture Department data.
In December, Informa projected 2009 U.S. acres for corn at 82.288 million and soybeans at 81.455 million.

Breaking News-RTRS-Malaysia swaps palm for fertiliser with N.Korea-report

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Malaysia has imported fertiliser components from North Korea in exchange for palm oil in a barter trade deal last month, a Malay language newspaper reported on Sunday.
The deal comes as the world's second largest producer of palm oil tries to further reduce its stock levels and slash a ballooning fertiliser import bill, Commodities Minister Peter Chin said. "We have already started the barter trade with North Korea and will extend this to Morocco, Jordan and Syria because these countries have the fertiliser components we need," Chin was quoted by Mingguan Malaysia newspaper as saying.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Jan 16 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Friday on strength in the energy sector and companies that hold up well in recessions, while reassuring comments from Britain's Barclays late in the day helped financials cut losses that had driven the market lower earlier.

The banking sector was in the spotlight throughout the session after a fresh $20 billion government capital injection for Bank of America revived worries about the fate of the sector.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 68.73 points, or 0.84 percent, to 8,281.22. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 6.38 points, or 0.76 percent, to 850.12. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 17.49 points, or 1.16
percent, at 1,529.33.

Markets will be closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, a day before the inauguration of President-elect Barack Obama.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Jan 16 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended higher in volatile trading on Friday as traders covered short positions before the February contract expires on Tuesday.

Prices rose ahead of the long holiday weekend. Floor trading will be closed on Monday, the Martin Luther King holiday, though electronic trading will proceed as usual.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, February crude settled up $1.11, or 3.14 percent, at $36.51, trading from $34.18 to $36.73. That was inside Thursday's range of $33.20, the lowest since crude hit $32.40 on Dec. 19, and $37.99.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - March up 25-1/2 at $10.20 per bushel.

Persistent hot and dry weather in Argentina that is stressing the soy and corn crops boosted prices in addition to continued active export sales of U.S. soy, especially to China, the world's largest soybean buyer.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- March up 0.19 cent at 34.59 cents per lb.

Spillover support from soaring soy amid drought in Argentina, the world's largest soyoil exporter.

FCPO
-KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures rose 1.6 percent on Friday as fears of lower South American soyoil production gripped vegetable oil markets, although sharp overnight falls in crude curbed gains.

The benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled up 28 ringgit at 1,833 ringgit ($512.4) after initially going as high as 1,840 ringgit.

Other traded months ranged between a 39 ringgit rise and a 53 ringgit drop <0#KPO:>. Overall trade stood at 12,644 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-A rise in Wall Street stock futures after Washington pumped $20 billion into Bank of America buoyed Asian sentiment and encouraged investors to put money into equities, even though dismal economic data has made market players wary again.

Singapore's Straits Times index <.FTSTI> gained 1.6 percent, recovering from a 3.4 percent fall on Thursday, with DBS Group rising 3.4 percent, and United-Overseas Bank and Oversea-Chinese Banking both up 3.1 percent.

In Kuala Lumpur, the index <.KLSE> slid 0.11 percent, extending losses into a fourth day ahead of a key by-election at the weekend.

FCPO Weekly: Maintain sideways to Higher


Market tested the 2000 mark but not manage to hold. However, 1800 mark was defended well. We maintain our sideways to higher view in near term market. We are now looking for the upside resistance at 2058. While, downside support is pegged at 1750-1720.

DJI Weekly: Crucial support at 8000 mark


Market tested 8000 mark but manage to hold on above it. However, failure to hold at 8000 mark again may see bear taking place more aggressively. Resistance is now looking at 9065-9088. Downside support is pegged at 7882-7449 level.

KLSE Weekly: Try to hold ground


Market is trying to holding ground after filled up the downside gap at 901-897. We maintain our sideways to higher view in near term market. Currently, we continue to look for the upside resistance at 936. Downside support is pegged at 868-862.

FKLI Weekly: Remains sideways to higher posture


Market covered the downside gap at 903.5-901 and close weak. Nevertheless, market still stick to its sideways to higher posture. As for now, we are looking for the resistance at 942.5. Downside support is pegged at 865-860.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Trader's Comment: Market was still well defended as CPO futures managed to close above 1800 level

Market was still well defended as CPO futures managed to close above 1800 level despite being penetrated below 1800. Benchmark Apr09 hit intra day high of 1840 after opened RM29 higher at 1835 following overnight CBOT soy complex settled at positive territory despite the sharp drop in NYMEX crude oil. It then started to weaken as it moved down slowly until it hit the intra day low at 1790 in the early second session. Nevertheless, the emerged of pre-weekend short covering activities in late trading hour sent Benchmark Mar09 to bounce back again and it finally settled RM28 higher at 1833. Extended gains in eCBOT soy complex and some slight recovering of Asian time crude oil had provided supportive element in our local CPO market.

Breaking News-RTRS-China soy imports strong on high crushing margin-survey

BEIJING, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Chinese crushers have purchased as much as 1.5 million tonnes of soybeans in the first half of this month as crushers stepped up imports on rising domestic prices of soy products, according to an official survey
Crushing margins for soy plants have hit "the highest level" due to surging soymeal and soyoil prices ahead of the Lunar Chinese New Year, the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) said in a report.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Jan 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Thursday amid market optimism the government will act to prevent the year-long recession from deepening, offsetting news that Bank of America was seeking more government aid that had fueled worries about the health of the financial sector.

In response to indications that the recession is deepening, Democratic leaders in the U.S. House of Representatives unveiled an $825 billion tax cut and spending bill. After the closing bell, the U.S. Senate rejected an attempt to block the
release of the remaining $350 billion from the financial bailout fund.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> added 12.35 points, or 0.15 percent, to 8,212.49. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> rose 1.12 points, or 0.13 percent, to 843.74. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 22.20 points, or 1.49 percent,
at 1,511.84.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, Jan 15 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended more than 5 percent lower on Thursday on a bleak OPEC global demand forecast, gloomy domestic economic mews and brimming domestic oil supplies. NYMEX February crude, which expires on Tuesday, sank to a new contract low, hitting the lowest level since prices hit the 2008 low of $32.40 on Dec. 19.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, February crude settled down $1.88, or 5.04 percent, at $35.40 a barrel, trading from $33.20 and $37.99.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - March up 23 cents at $9.94-1/2 a bushel. Gained on Argentine crop worries as hot, dry weather forecast for next week. Strong Chinese demand for soybeans also supportive.

CBOT-SOYOIL - March up 0.35 cent at 34.40 cents per lb. Support from gains in soybeans. Drop in crude oil limited gains.

FCPO
-KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures tumbled 4.1 percent on Thursday as investors cut some positions on slowing shipments and weak global soyoil markets.

The benchmark March contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled down 78 ringgit at 1,806 Malaysian ringgit ($502.8) a tonne.

Other traded months fell between 45 and 83 ringgit <0#KPO:>. Overall trade stood at 10,935 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Stocks in Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand fell over 3 percent on Thursday, with others in the region also under selling pressure amid bleak global economic data and a deepening banking crisis in the United States.

In Singapore, the main stock index <.FTSTI> posted the largest fall in the Southeast region, ending 3.4 percent lower at its lowest in over a month.

In Kuala Lumpur, shares <.KLSE> ended down 1.8 percent after earlier falling 2.6 percent to a near two-week low, with telecoms leading decliners.Goldman Sachs has downgraded Telekom Malaysia and DiGi to 'sell'.

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures surrendered its yesterday’s gain to end sharply lower on weak export.

Palm oil futures surrendered its yesterday’s gain to end sharply lower on weak export. Benchmark Mar09 opened RM61 lower at 1823 following the declined of overnight NYMEX crude oil and CBOT soy complex. It then hovered in a tight range of 1840-1810 level through out most of the sessions, fueled by a very low volume. The released of Jan1-15 export data by private cargo surveyors has further weaken the market sentiment after ITS and SGS posted a fall of 33% and 36% respectively. Benchmark Mar09 hit intra day high at 1844 in the second session but was immediately sold down again to intra day low of 1804 before it ended RM78 lower at 1806.

FCPO Daily: 1800 mark try hard to defend


Market again ended in negative territory yet 1800 mark was tried hard to defend. Chart wise market momentum turning weaker mode. Thus, market may move sideways to lower in near term. For now, we continue to look for downside support at 1800-1797 followed by 1738-1723. Upside resistance is at 1844-1856 (gap left over on 15/1/2009) followed by 1900.

DJI Daily: Ended 6 days losing streak


Market ended its six day losing streak with mild gain. Overall technical picture was still in bearish mode. Currently,immediate support is pegged at 8000-7880. Meanwhile, upside resistance maintain at 9000-8900.

KLSE Daily: Bear strike


Market gap down to end below 900 mark on bear strike. Immediate daily technical outlook weakened further and looks may move sideways to lower in near term market. Upside resistance is now at 907-910 (gap left over on 15/1/2009). While, downside support is pegged at 870-867.

FKLI Daily: 900 mark failed to hold


Market violated the physiological support at 900 mark had again dampened the immediate technical outlook. Bull looks failed to defend and market may move sideways to lower in near term. Thus, we are now looking for the downside support at 879.5-876 followed by 866-862.5. For upside, resistance is at 899.5-907 (gap left over on 15/1/2009).

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-India's Dec qtr edible oil imports jump - trade

MUMBAI, Jan 14 (Reuters) - India's edible oil imports in the December quarter rose 80 percent from a year ago after a sharp drop in global prices and in anticipation of new import duties by the federal government, a leading trade body said on Wednesday.

Breaking News-RTRS-Brazil soy, corn crop forecasts pared back-AgraFNP

SAO PAULO, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Brazil's 2008/09 soybean crop forecast was pared back to 57.85 million tonnes from the 59.2 million tonnes estimated in December, due to drought in the southern grain belt, independent analyst AgraFNP said Wednesday.

Breaking News-RTRS-NOPA December soy crush estimated at 140.2 mln bu

CHICAGO, Jan 13 (Reuters)- National Oilseed Processors Association monthly crush data to be released Wednesday morning should show a December U.S. soybean crush near 140.2 million bushels, analysts said Tuesday.
Trade estimates ranged from 138.5 million to 142 million bushels and compare with NOPA's November soy crush figure of 139.4 million.
Analysts were mixed in their views whether NOPA would report a decline or increase in soyoil stocks. Estimates ranged from up 30 million lbs to down 60 million from its November stocks figure of 2.042 billion lbs.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Jan 14 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell to six-week lows on Wednesday on worries about steeper losses at banks worldwide and as U.S. retail sales data pointed to a deepening recession.

Highlighting the strain banks are under, The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. government is close to extending billions more aid to Bank of America Corp , sending the bank's stock lower after the bell.

Fears about the banking sector were exacerbated after Morgan Stanley analysts forecast HSBC , Europe's biggest bank, is likely to halve its dividend and may need to raise up to $30 billion of capital, while Germany's Deutsche Bank said it lost more than $6 billion last quarter.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 248.42 points, or 2.94 percent, to 8,200.14. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gave up 29.17 points, or 3.35 percent, at 842.62. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> lost 56.82 points, or 3.67
percent, to 1,489.64.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Jan 14 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended lower on Wednesday, pressured by an unexpectedly large increase last week in distillate supplies which include heating oil and diesel fuel.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, February crude settled at $37.28, down 50 cents, or 1.32 percent, after trading from $35.52 to $39.45. Options on the contract expired at the close.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- January expired 8-1/2 cents per bushel higher at $9.78, March unchanged at $9.71-1/2 a bushel.

Weak crude oil and tumbling stock market add pressure. Fears about heat and drought damaging the crop in Argentina, world's No. 3 soy exporter, lend support in volatile trade.

NOPA pegs U.S. December soy crush 134.787 million bushels, below average estimate for 140.2 million.

CBOT-SOYOIL - January expired down 0.60 cent per lb at 34.00 cents per lb, March down 0.78 cent at 34.05 cents a pound. Weakness in crude oil prices pressuring soyoil futures.

NOPA pegs U.S. December soyoil stocks 2.176 billion lbs versus November 2.042 billion.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures gained nearly 3 percent on Wednesday after posting sharp losses the previous day, as some investors returned to global vegetable oil markets on weather-related fears.

The benchmark March contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange traded up 54 ringgit at 1,884 ringgit ($528.2) a tonne after going as high as 1,894 ringgit.

Other traded months rose between 2 and 35 ringgit <0#KPO:>. Overall trade stood at 7,559 lots of 25 tonnes each, falling from the usual 10,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, Jan 14 (Reuters-major Southeast Asian stocks ended mixed, with Singapore shares <.FTSTI> inching up 0.16 percent, Malaysian shares <.KLSE> drifting down 0.03 percent and Philippines stocks <.PSI> closing 0.56 percent lower.

DJI Daily: 8300 mark failed to hold


Immediate daily technical landscape turn weak following market violated the immediate support at 8300 mark. We are now looking the immediate support at 8000-7880. Meanwhile, upside resistance maintain at 9000.

KLSE Daily: Losing ground


Market continue to lose ground with a weak close. Downside support maintain at 910-907 followed by 901-897 (gap left over on 5/1/2009). While, upside resistance is at 925.

FKLI Daily: 900 mark manage to defend?


Market violated the immediate support at 910 to close weak had again signaled that market momentum is getting weak. We now looking for the support at 903.5-901 (gap left over on 5/1/2009) followed by 879.5-876. For upside, resistance is at 937-942.

FCPO Daily: Market is slowing down its upside move


Market retreated after the recent rebound and looks bull looks may take a breather to slow down its upside move. For now, we continue to look for downside support at 1800-1797. Upside resistance is at 1913-1935 (gap left over on 13/1/2009).

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Trader's Comment: CPO futures ended broadly higher after a range trading mood

CPO futures ended broadly higher after a range trading mood. Benchmark Mar09 gapped up RM35 to open at 1865 following overnight NYMEX crude oil and CBOT soy complex settled slightly higher. It hit the day high and day low level shortly after market opened at 1894 and 1856 respectively. Thereafter, it began to hover around that range through out the day. The fact that other commodities market continued their rally in Asian time trading where crude oil traded above $39 and eCBOT soy complex also inched higher had provided a steady support on the local CPO prices. Benchmark Mar09 finally settled RM54 higher at 1884. The fear of bad weather in South America had also helped lifted the sentiment in the global vege oil market.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Jan 13 - The Dow fell for the fifth straight day on Tuesday as investors fretted over what many expect will be a gloomy earnings season, overshadowing a boost in financials on bets U.S. authorities will take toxic assets off banks' balance sheets.

But the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended higher as rising oil prices lifted energy shares and biotechnology companies gained as investors bet they will be among the few sectors with growing earnings.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 25.41 points, or 0.30 percent, at 8,448.56. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 1.53 points, or 0.18 percent, to 871.79. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 7.67 points, or 0.50 percent, at 1,546.46.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Jan 13 - U.S. crude oil futures staged a late rally on Tuesday, ending the session higher amid cold weather and news of output cuts buy Saudi Arabia.

Gains were limited, however, as traders turned their focus on weekly inventory data due on Wednesday, for which forecasts called for stock builds across the board.

"Products led the market higher but ... expectations for more inventory builds may be starting to weigh on the market," said Gene McGillian, an analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, February crude settled up 19 cents, or 0.51 percent, at $37.78 a barrel, trading from $36.10 to $39.50.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - January up 15-1/2 cents at $9.69-1/2 per bushel, March up 5-1/2 cents at $9.71-1/2 a bushel.

Support from drought in Argentina, the world's third largest soy exporter, and continued Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans. Dropped from the day's lows in late trade on fund rebalancing.

CBOT-SOYOIL - January up 0.42 cent at 34.60 cents a pound, March up 0.42 cent at 34.83 cents a pound.
Drought in Argentina, the world's largest soyoil exporter, supported prices.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 13 - Malaysian crude palm oil futures tumbled by as much as 9.6 percent to a week's low on Tuesday as investors kicked off a selling spree after overnight losses in soyoil and crude markets, ignoring a fall in domestic stocks.

Falling stocks have boosted prices of palm oil, used in a range of products from biscuits to biofuel, by 35 percent since an Oct 28. low of 1,331 ringgit, but fears of further weakening in global demand for vegetable oils and crude oil have spooked sentiment.

The benchmark March contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell as much as 191 ringgit to stand at 1,797 ringgit ($502.7) per tonne, a level unseen since Jan. 5. The contract then closed down 158 ringgit at 1,830 ringgit.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Thai stocks hit a 3-week low on Tuesday as shares in PTT group extended falls in response to downbeat earnings forecasts and weaker oil prices, while fears of corporate profitability pulled other markets lower.

Thailand's main SET index dropped 4.2 percent to its lowest since Dec. 23, with top energy firm PTT falling for a third day, down 7.1 percent to a more than 1-month low after warnings of larger-than-expected losses for the fourth quarter.

Singapore's stock index ended 0.81 percent lower at its lowest since Dec. 31, with financials leading decliners.

Malaysia lost 1.07 percent, with plantation IOI Corp down 5 percent on the back of falling crude prices. Indonesian stocks fell 0.48 percent with Telkom Indonesia 2.9 percent lower.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Breaking News-DJN--Malaysia's palm oil inventories may fall to anywhere between 1.6 million and 1.7 million metric tons during the next few months

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Malaysia's palm oil inventories may fall to anywhere
between 1.6 million and 1.7 million metric tons during the next few months due
to heavy rains which are slowing down output, Minster For Plantation Industries
and Commodities Peter Chin said Tuesday.
"Demand ahead of the summer months is strong, but production has slowed down,
and February is a shorter month, which can bring down the stock levels," Chin
said on the sidelines of a conference on palm oil.
Malaysia's palm oil stocks at the end of December are estimated at 1.99
million tons.

Breaking News-RTRS-Malaysia's Proton may sell stake to foreign company

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Malaysia's national car company Proton Holdings may sell a controlling stake to a foreign carmaker, company Chairman Nadzmi Mohd Salleh told the Business Times newspaper.
"If Proton is a problem child, we have to let it go," Nadzmi told the paper in an interview published on Monday.
"But if you want to enhance Proton's capability and also the viability over a period of difficult times, then the collaboration with the foreign car makers has to take a different form," Nadzmi was quoted by the paper as saying.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Monday as concerns about massive credit losses at Citigroup knocked its shares 17 percent lower, dragging down bank stocks, and on fears of a dismal fourth-quarter earnings season.

A Wall Street Journal report that Citigroup could report more than $10 billion in fourth-quarter operating losses struck a blow to other banks on fears of a fresh round of losses from the credit crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 125.21 points, or 1.46 percent, to 8,473.97. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> dropped 20.09 points, or 2.26 percent, to 870.26. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> lost 32.80 points, or 2.09
percent, to 1,538.79.

Investors fear that Citigroup is looking to sell one of its best assets because it needs cash. Adding to concerns on Citigroup was news that the embattled U.S. bank is nearing a deal to sell a controlling stake in its Smith Barney retail brokerage business to Morgan Stanley

In response to the faltering economy, President-elect Barack Obama asked President George W. Bush to seek from Congress the remaining $350 billion of the $700 billion
financial industry bailout, and he agreed to do so, the White House said.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended down nearly 8 percent on Monday on demand concerns, in a follow-through of Friday's sharp losses spurred by a gloomy jobs report.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, February crude settled down $3.24, or 7.94 percent, at $37.59 per barrel, after trading from $37.48 to $40.80.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- January down 83-1/2 cents at $9.54 a bushel, March off 70 cents at $9.66.

Collapsed on USDA's bigger-than-expected U.S. soy stocks data. January in delivery and trading without limits. Falling crude weighs.

USDA reported Dec. 1 soy stocks at 2.276 billion bushels, above average trade estimate of 2.182 billion.

Bigger number reflected a larger 2008 U.S. soy crop of 2.959 billion bushels, above the average of trade estimate for 2.913 billion and USDA November forecast for 2.921 billion.

USDA revised upward its 2008/09 U.S. soy ending stocks figure by 20 million bushels to 225 million.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- January down 2.32 cents at 34.18 cents a lb, March off 2.31 at 34.41 cents. Following soybeans and crude oil lower.

USDA raised 2008/09 U.S. soyoil end stocks forecast by 110 million lbs to 2.143 billion despite decreased production.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures rose 3.5 percent on Monday after the industry regulator announced a drop in end-December palm oil stocks from a record high the month before, traders said.

The rally was also underpinned by news that Malaysian palm oil exports for the first 10 days of January came within market expectations, although shipments fell from the same period in December.

The benchmark March palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange rose 68 ringgit, or 3.5 percent, to 1,988 ringgit ($5570) per tonne.

Other traded contracts rose between 60 ringgit and 86 ringgit. Overall volume was 9,469 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Singapore shares fell to a one-week low on Monday amid worries about DBS Group's exposure to a defaulting Kuwaiti lender, and most other Southeast Asian markets dropped on fears of a deepening U.S. recession.

Singapore's index <.FTSTI> fell for a fifth day, down 1.7 percent to its lowest since Jan. 2, with bank DBS Group sliding 3.7 percent on speculation about its exposure to Global Investment House , even though DBS denied any exposure.

Malaysia bucked the trend and its index <.KLSE> ended up 0.5 percent, adding to a 0.94 percent rise on Friday, with outperformers including Telekom Malaysia , up 4.6 percent, and fourth-largest lender RHB Capital , up 1.95
percent.

DJI Daily: No improvement


Market continue to losing ground with another negative closing. A break below the immediate support at 8372-8347 may prompted some sell off activities. Meanwhile, upside resistance is at 9000-9088.

KLSE Daily: Upside move slowing down


Market looks had slowing down a little its upside move. We now looking at the resistance 936. Downside support is pegged at 910-907 followed by 901-897 (gap left over on 5/1/2009).

FKLI Daily: Losing a little strength


Market looks losing a little strength following prices retreated further. Bull may want to take a breathe after the recent rebound. We naintain our upside resistance at 942.5. Downside support is pegged at 917.5-910 followed by 903.5-901 (gap left over on 5/1/2009).

FCPO Daily: Gaining ground


Market extended its wining streak to further gaining ground on its upward momentum and looks may want to challenge its recent high at 2058 level. For downside, support is pegged at 1903-1900 followed by 1868-1864.

Monday, January 12, 2009

Trader's Comment: Lower inventory released by MPOB led CPO futures to finish generally higher

Lower inventory released by MPOB led CPO futures to finish generally higher. Players were discounting lower 1-10 Jan09 export figures released by private cargo surveyors. MPOB put palm oil stocks in December08 fall 11.98% to 1.99 million tonnes from a revised 2.26 million tonnes in November08. This provided some confidence to the bull as end-stocks below 2million. Private cargo surveyors released their 1-10 Jan09 export figures were more or less within market expectation and ignored by market players, SGS pegged 1-10 Jan09 export down 37% at 384,842 from Dec08 at 619,180 tonnes. Last Friday’s strong closed at soy complex in CBOT provided a positive tone to BMD a good start in the early session. Benchmark Mar09 finally settled RM68 higher at 1988 after trading between 1935 to 1988.