Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Trader's Comment: Continuous profit taking led palm oil futures to end lower after its earlier mix trading.

Continuous profit taking led palm oil futures to end lower after its earlier mix trading. Benchmark July09 was well supported initially as prices climbed slowly until it hit intra day high of 2731 in the afternoon session. Nevertheless, today’s buying sentiment was not as strong as the previous days. The emerged of profit taking activities saw Benchmark July09 came off from the high and slid to intra day low at 2603, fully covered yesterday’s left over gap. It finally ended RM77 lower at 2625. External markets were rather mix today as eCBOT soy oil eased off slightly while Dalian palm ended higher. Trading volume also reduced slightly with 22,092 contracts changed hands.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rallied on Monday, driving the S&P 500 into positive territory for the year as investors bet banks' capital shortfalls may be manageable and housing data fueled hopes the recession is easing.

Aside from reports suggesting bank balance sheets need less shoring up than feared just a few months ago, White House comments that the Obama administration did not see a need right now to ask Congress for more bank bailouts also pushed the sector higher.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 214.33 points, or 2.61 percent, to 8,426.74. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 29.72 points, or 3.39 percent, to 907.24 -- its first close above the 900 level since early January. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> climbed 44.36 points, or 2.58 percent, to 1,763.56.

Although final stress test results are expected to be released on Thursday, investors bet they will show banks do not need a larger financial cushion. That outcome would minimize the dilution of current shareholders' equity and avoid giving the government a bigger stake in the banks.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended higher for the fourth session in a row on Monday, notching the highest settlement for the year, as optimism about an economic recovery that lifted Wall Street also supported oil markets.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude settled up $1.27, or 2.39 percent, at $54.47 a barrel, the highest settlement since Nov. 24, 2008, when prices closed at $54.50. June crude traded from $52.56 to $54.55, the highest since intraday prices hit $54.66 on March 26.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May up 13-1/4 cents at $11.15-1/4 a bushel; new-crop November down 1/2 at $9.70-1/2.

Soy rallies to fresh seven-month top on tight U.S. stocks and strong technicals. Supported by talk Argentina's soybean crop this year may fall as low as 31.0 million tonnes, below the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's latest forecast for 34.0 million.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- May up 0.51 cent at 37.94 cents per lb. Following soybeans.

FCPO-JAKARTA, May 4 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures hit a 38-week intraday high on Monday, tracking soy which soared on fears of tight global vegetable oil supplies, but gave up some gains in late selling, traders said.

The benchmark July contract rose 107 ringgit, or 4.1 percent, to 2,702 ringgit per tonne ($765.66), after going as high as 2,798 ringgit, the strongest intraday level since August 8 last year.

Other traded months rose between 104 and 203 ringgit. <0#KPO:>. Overall volume more than tripled the usual at 36,748 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, May 4 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks hovered
around seven-month highs on Monday as growing optimism over a global economic recovery fuelled buying of top lenders such as DBS Group, Maybank, Bank Rakyat and Bangkok Bank.

Hopes that the United States economy was starting to stabilise and confidence the global economy was recovering faster than expected attracted investors back to stocks and helped Asian markets extend last week's gains.

In Kuala Lumpur, the stock index <.KLSE> climbed 1.9 percent to its highest since Oct. 6, with top lender Maybank rising 2.8 percent and number two Bumiputra-Commerce gaining 6.2 percent.

In Indonesia, Southeast Asia's best performer this year, the index <.JKSE> jumped 3.4 percent to its highest since Sept. 29, with state-owned Bank Rakyat surging 6.8 percent and number five Bank Danamon up 9.4 percent.

Singapore's index <.FTSTI> jumped 5.7 percent to its highest since Oct. 15, with heavyweight bank DBS Group , United Overseas Bank and Oversea Chinese Banking Corp all posting hefty gains of more than 10 percent.

Trader's Comment: Bull was still fiercely in charge as CPO futures easily broke above 2700 level and almost tested 2800 mark.

Bull was still fiercely in charge as CPO futures easily broke above 2700 level and almost tested 2800 mark. However, it later encountered some intra day profit taking activities and surrendered part of its earlier gains to end off high. Benchmark July09 initially gapped up RM95 higher to open at 2690 and immediately rallied strongly to the level above 2700, tracking last week’s CBOT soybean prices that surged to 7-month high. It then climbed to hit intra day high of 2798 in the second session before a wave of intra day profit taking activities arrived and sent Benchmark July09 to settle RM107 higher at 2702. Market sentiment was extremely bullish today due to the support from external factors. eCBOT soy oil had rose more than 3% higher during Asian time trading while Dalian palm locked at the limit up prices through out the day. Traders were also optimistically speculating for the upcoming MPOB supply & demand data which is scheduled to release next Monday. Daily volume hit the new recent high again with 36,748 contracts changed hands.

DJI Daily: sideways to bias upside


A good closing above 8400 market shows its the end of consolidation phase. Market continue to strengthen its sideways to bias upside momentum. We are now looking for the next resistance at 8600-8700. Downside support is pegged at 8000 followed by 7700.

KLSE Daily: Maintain positive posture


Bull won the battle as successfully breakout from 1000 mark after tried for few attempts. Overall daily technical outlook looks bullish and looks market may want to challenge the upside resistance at 1020-1030 in near term. To the downside, support is stood at 995-990.

FKLI Daily: Holding well at 1000 mark


Market violated the 1000 mark convincingly looks likely to inch higher in near term. As for now, upside resistance is looking at 1030-1040. Downside support is pegged at 998-993.5 (gap left over on 4/5/2009).

FCPO Daily: Bull run likely to continue


Bull run likely to extend as market gap up sharply and close firm at above 2700 mark. Thus, we are now looking for the upside resistance at 2800-2850.To the downside, support is pegged at 2679-2618 (gap left over on 4/5/2009).