Friday, February 27, 2009

Trader's Comments: CPO futures ended in positive territory after recovered its earlier losses

CPO futures ended in positive territory after recovered its earlier losses on expectations of end Feb inventory likely to drawn down. Benchmark May09 hit intra day low of 1862 after opened RM25 lower at 1865, tracking the early losses of eCBOT soy oil and Dalian palm in Asian time trading. However, it managed to recoup some ground and climbed steadily through out most of the sessions. External factors had been quite bearish today as eCBOT soy oil and Dalian palm extended their overnight losses. News that China cancelled 2-3 cargoes (180k tonnes) of soybean from US had also further undermined the external vege oil market sentiment. Nevertheless, CPO market was still supportive as Benchmark May09 hit intra day high at 1919 in the afternoon session before it ended RM5 higher at 1895. Market talk that end Feb export data will be around 1.13-1.16 million tonnes had enhanced the confidence of traders as they believe that Feb end stocks will likely to drawn down due to anticipation of lower productions.

Breaking News-RTRS-Malaysia mini-budget could be 10-15 bln rgt-report

KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Malaysia could spend 10 billion ringgit to 15 billion ringgit (($2.73 billion-$4.09 billion) in its fiscal stimulus package, Trade Minister Muhyiddin Yassin said at the ASEAN summit in Thailand on Friday.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Feb 26 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell in volatile trading on Thursday as investors sold off shares of healthcare companies such as Merck & Co on worries that U.S. President Barack Obama's budget proposal will strangle profits.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 88.81 points, or 1.22 percent, to 7,182.08. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> shed 12.07 points, or 1.58 percent, to 752.83. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> fell 33.96 points, or 2.38 percent, to 1,391.47.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Feb 26 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures gained sharply for the third day in a row on Thursday on continued gasoline strength after government data on Wednesday showed a surprise sharp drawdown in gasoline supplies last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, April crude settled up $2.72, or 6.4 percent, at $45.22 a barrel, ending the highest since Jan. 26's $45.73. It traded from $42.27 to $45.30, the highest since Jan. 27's $47.49, after breaking through technical resistance at $44.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- March down 8-3/4 cents $8.69-1/4 a bushel.

Turns lower as disappointing exports and talk USDA's outlook for U.S. soybean stocks to build in 2009/10 weigh. Weak South American cash basis also weighed on soy. New-crop November held relatively firm on support from USDA's outlook for 2009 U.S. soy seedings.

Census said January soy crush 145.19 million bushels, slightly below estimates for 145.7 million.

More plantings will mean bigger 2009/10 U.S. soy carryout.

USDA at its annual outlook forum forecast 2009 U.S. soy plantings at 77 million acres versus 2008 plantings of 75.718 million. Traders expected at 2 million-3 million increase.

CBOT-SOYOIL - March down 0.26 cent at 31.64 cents per lb.

Turned lower as soybeans fell. Census stocks number bearish.

Census said end January soyoil stocks 2.929 billion lbs, above estimates for 2.874 billion.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures gave up a nearly 2 percent gain to finish marginally lower on Thursday, as selling was sparked by falls in rival soybean prices, traders said.

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange shed 4 ringgit, or 0.2 percent, to 1,890 ringgit ($515) a tonne, coming off an intra-day high of 1,930 ringgit.

Other traded contract were mixed, with some rising between 41 and 51 ringgit, while others fell between 3 and 15 ringgit. Overall volume was 11,973 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks weakened on Thursday, with Indonesia sinking to its lowest in more than two months on the back of weak results at Indosat, but Singapore ended nearly unchanged.

The main Thai stock index <.SETI> dropped 0.5 percent, Malaysia's key stock index <.KLSE> eased 0.3 percent, the Philippine index <.PSI> was down 0.4 percent and Vietnam's VNI index <.VNI> shed 0.7 percent.

DJI Daily: no improvement


Market remains weak. Immediate downside support is at 7100-7000. For upside, resistance maintain at 7400-7500.

KLSE Daily: holding well


Nothing much changes on the immediate technical landscape as market holding well. We maintain the upside resistance at 900-910. Downside support is at 883-880 (gap left over since 5/2/2009).

FKLI Daily: closer to 900 mark


Market missed 900 mark just by one point away. However, bull looks will not give up easily and likely to challenge again at 900 mark. Thus, we look for the upside resistance at 900-905 and downside support is pegged at 880-875.

FCPO Daily: may continue challenge at 1900 mark


Market again challenge 1900 mark yet still failed to sustain above it. Thus, we maintain the resistance at 1935-1950 followed by 1970-2000. Immediate support is pegged at 1881-1878(gap left over on 25/2/2009).