Friday, February 20, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures gave back all its earlier gains to end lower.

Palm oil futures gave back all its earlier gains to end lower after a tight range trading. The emerged of long liquidation activities in late trading sent Benchmark May09 to tumble to intra day low at 1832. It initially opened RM20 higher at 1880, following the release of better than expected 1-20 export data by private cargo surveyors. It was holding steadily and hovering between the narrow range of 1870-1885 through out most of the trading session. However lack of follow through buying coupled with long liquidation ahead of weekend saw Benchmark may09 prices tumbled to 1832 and settled RM25 lower at 1835. Weather forecast that there will be showers in Argentina this weekend prompted some speculative selling activities. Bearish sentiment in regional equity market has some influence on BMD as well.

Palm Oil Export 2008 vs 2007


Exports for the year 2008 have improved as compared to year 2007. Export for the year 2007 is at 13,744,752 mt and increased to 15,823,233 mt in year 2008, up 12%.

*source: MPOB

CPO Production 2008 vs 2007


Production for the year 2008 is seen to have significantly increased from year 2007. The total production for the year 2008 is 17,734,716 mt compare 15,823,233 mt in year 2007, up 12%.

*source: MPOB

RTRS-ANALYSIS-Malaysia stimulus seen too little, too late

KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Malaysia's attempts to boost its faltering economy will likely fail as the drag of falling demand for its main exports of electronics, commodities and oil is too large for any domestic expansion programme to offset.
"I do not think we should expect much out of this (second) package," said Mohamed Ariff, executive director of the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER), an influential think-tank.
The government has not signaled how big the second package will be, saying only it will be larger than the first, but analysts predict it will be worth around 7 billion-10 billion ringgit ($1.92 billion-$2.74 billion).

Breaking News-RTRS-Indonesia Jan palm stocks down 14 pct from Dec - industry

JAKARTA, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Indonesia's crude palm oil stocks at the end of January eased 14 percent from the previous month as output fell, an industry official said on Thursday.
Stocks for the world's top producer of the commodity dropped to 1.8 million tonnes in January, from 2.1 million tonnes in December, said Sahat Sinaga, executive director of Indonesian vegetable oil federation, GIMNI.

Breaking News-RTRS-Chinese soy buyers may cancel US soy on poor margins

BEIJING, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Some buyers in China, the world's top soybean importer, may cancel some U.S. soy imports, including cargoes that are already afloat, after a sharp fall in soymeal prices wiped out crushing margins, traders said on Thursday.

Breaking News-RTRS-Argentine farmers call anti-government strike

BUENOS AIRES, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Argentine farmers said on Thursday they will hold a commercial strike beginning Friday against government agricultural policies.
Farmers will halt sales of grains and some other agricultural products starting Friday until Tuesday, farm leaders said in a press conference.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Feb 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Thursday, with the Dow setting a new bear market low, as signs of a worsening U.S. economy unsettled investors while concerns over global stimulus spending sent government debt prices lower.

The number of U.S. workers drawing unemployment aid jumped to a record high of nearly 5 million and a surprisingly sharp drop in manufacturing in the mid-Atlantic states reinforced fears that the deepening slump would hurt corporate profits.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> slid to its lowest level in six years, sliding past the bear market low of Nov. 21. Technology companies led the Dow lower, but Bank of America and Citigroup again grabbed headlines with sharp declines in thin, but choppy trading volume.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> closed down 89.68 points, or 1.19 percent, at 7,465.95. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> fell 9.48 points, or 1.20 percent, at 778.94. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> shed 25.15 points, or 1.71 percent, at 1,442.82.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Feb 19 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures surged more than 14 percent on Thursday, lifted by a surprise drawdown in domestic crude stocks and short-covering ahead of the front-month contract's expiration on Friday.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, March crude settled up $4.86, or 14.04 percent, at $39.48 a barrel, trading from $34.59 to $39.85.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - March down 3 cents to $8.84-1/2 a bushel. Ended mixed with nearby contracts down and deferred months higher on unwinding of bull-spreads. Rumor China and/or EU canceling soy contracts also weighed on nearby month.

CBOT-SOYOIL - March unchanged at 30.42 cents a lb. Following late mixed trend in soy.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Feb 18 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures closed lower for the fourth day in a row on Thursday, on fears it may track the decline in soybean prices, traders said.

The benchmark May contract fell 15 ringgit, or 0.8 percent, to 1,860 ringgit ($509) per tonne, having fallen as low as 1,830 ringgit, a level not seen since February 6.

Other traded contracts were mixed. The overall volume was 22,439 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks were mixed
on Thursday, with Singapore touching a near 3-month low on broad selling of big caps such as CapitaLand and SingTel while Malaysia rose after three days of falls, with MayBank among the advancers.

Elsewhere in the region, the Thai stock index <.SETI> rose for a second day, adding 0.5 percent, Indonesia's index <.JKSE> fell 0.5 percent, the Philippines gained 0.4 percent and Vietnam <.VNI> inched down 0.09 percent.

DJI Daily: Hits 6-year low


Market failed to hold ground and violated the underlined support at 7449 to hit 6-year low. Market likely to continue its downside move with support is looking at 7197 (low since 31/10/2002). For upside, resistance is at 7800-7900.

KLSE Daily: Remain in sideways..


Market tested 900 mark in intra-day basis but not at closing. We maintain resistance at 900-905, while support is pegged at 893-891 followed by 884-880.

FKLI Daily: 900 mark can come?


Market tried hard to challenge the 900 mark but it looks tough. We continue to look for the support at 880-878 (gap left over on 6/2/2009) followed by 860-865. While, resistance maintain at 900-905.

FCPO Daily: Directionless...


Market close in negative territory after covered the full upside gap at 1887-1892. Overall technical outlook remained cloudy and directionless. Thus, consolidation phase likely to continue in near term. We are now looking for the resistance at 1920-1950. Support is maintain at 1800-1790 followed by 1740-1720.