RTRS - U.S. to win more China soyoil sales on tight supplies - Oil World

HAMBURG, Nov 20 (Reuters) - The United States is likely to win more soyoil sales to China in the final weeks of 2012 as supplies from South America sell out after poor soybean crops earlier this year, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

In October, Brazil exported a hefty 91,000 tonnes of soyoil to China, Argentina exported 110,000 tonnes and the United States lagged behind with an estimated 76,000 tonnes, Oil World said.

“But a slowdown (in Brazilian and Argentine sales) is likely to occur in November and December due to declining production and export supplies of the two South American countries,” Oil World said.

“Therefore China has shifted to U.S. origin, resulting in a sharp increase in U.S. soyoil exports to China in Oct./Dec. 2012.”

China has been increasing its overall soyoil imports from all countries since mid-2012 as domestic demand continues to rise, it said.

China is likely to import 1.7 million tonnes of soyoil in Jan./Dec. 2012, up 0.57 million tonnes on 2011 and a three-year high, Oil World forecast.

RTRS - Oil World cuts Argentine and Brazilian soybean crop forecasts

HAMBURG, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday it has cut its forecasts of 2013 soybean harvests in Argentina and Brazil by a combined 3 million tonnes because of unfavourable weather disrupting sowings in both countries.

Oil World now forecasts Argentina will harvest 54.0 million tonnes of soybeans in early 2013, down from 56.0 million tonnes it forecast in October but still up from 40.5 million tonnes Argentina harvested in early 2012.

Oil World forecasts Brazil will harvest 81.0 million tonnes of soybeans in early 2013, down from 82.0 million tonnes forecast in October but also still up from 66.8 million tonnes Brazil harvested in early 2012.

Soybean prices hit record highs in September as drought ravaged the U.S. crop, but slumped to five-month lows on Friday as the U.S. harvest turned out larger than expected and big South American output may relieve world supplies in early 2013. 

But some parts of Brazil are too dry to enable soybean sowings while some Argentine plantings have been disrupted by repeated rain, Oil World said.

“So far the market has shown little response to the significant planting delays in Argentina, apparently trusting in the ability of Argentine farmers to accomplish plantings and produce a large crop even under detrimental conditions," it said.

Oil World stressed that global soybean stocks are declining and The United States can satisfy a somewhat larger share of global soybean demand than anticipated two months ago because its crop is larger than feared, Oil World said.

“However, the recent pace of U.S. soybean exports and crushings also exceeded expectations and will result in a severe depletion of U.S. soybean stocks by early 2013,” it said. “It may thus be a risky policy to bet on strong price pressure from large South American crops already today.”

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - World shares rebounded and oil prices fell on Tuesday on news of a possible Egyptian-brokered cease-fire in the Gaza conflict, but comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke about the potential impact of the U.S. "fiscal cliff" rattled investors, causing Wall Street to close flat.

World equity markets turned positive after a Hamas official said a cease-fire was expected to start at midnight, although Israel later said there was still no deal to end a week of fighting around the Gaza Strip. 

Wall Street moved in and out of negative territory, pulled lower by comments from Bernanke, who said the U.S. economy faced a series of "headwinds." He cited damage to the U.S. housing sector and mortgage markets, and a sharp tightening in credit.

In comments before the Economic Club of New York, Bernanke said the Fed does not have the tools to offset a potential recession if politicians fail to strike a deal to prevent a fiscal shortfall of some $600 billion.

Growing speculation that euro zone finance ministers will agree to release aid to debt-laden Greece reduced demand for safe-haven assets such as German bonds and bolstered the appetite for European equities.

Moody's announcement late on Monday of a cut in France's credit rating initially sent European shares lower.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell 2.8 percent on Tuesday on signs that an imminent ceasefire would end a week of rocket attacks and air strikes between Palestinians and Israelis.

CBOT Soybean - Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures rose 1.3 percent, their biggest daily gain in a month, on short-covering ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and after a private analyst cut its projections of the South American soy harvest, traders said.

• Oilseeds analyst Oil World cut its forecasts of 2012/2013 Argentine soybean production to 54 million tonnes, from 56 million previously, and Brazilian soy production to 81 million tonnes, from 82 million previously. Oil World said parts of Brazil are too dry while some Argentine plantings have been disrupted by repeated rain.
• The United States is likely to win more soyoil sales to China in the final weeks of 2012 as supplies from South America sell out after poor soybean crops earlier this year - Oil World. 
• USDA said private exporters reported the sale of 20,000 tonnes of optional-origin soybean oil to unknown destinations for 2012/13 delivery - correcting an announcement from Monday that said the sale was for U.S.-origin soybean oil.
• Spot basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast were mostly steady, underpinned by concerns that low water on the mid-Mississippi River could restrict barge movement as soon as next month.
• Brazilian forward sales of soybeans from the 2012/13 crop stalled in the last week as CBOT prices sagged, with sales unchanged at 49 percent of the expected harvest - analyst Celeres.

FCPO - SINGAPORE, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged lower on Tuesday, as investors booked profits after the contract hit a more than two week high earlier in the day and as export demand continued to show signs of slowing.

The world's No.2 palm producer exported 1.02 million tonnes of palm products for Nov. 1-20, down 3.3 percent from 1.06 million tonnes a month ago, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Tuesday. 

"Market participants are also anxious as they wait for the outcome of the European financial meeting," he added, referring to a gathering later on Tuesday where euro zone finance ministers are expected to give a tentative go-ahead for the disbursement of 44 billion euros in emergency loans to Greece.

Singapore commodities trader Olam International Ltd defended its accounting practices after attacks by short-seller Muddy Waters which media reports said questioned the way it keeps its books, sending its shares tumbling as much as 11 percent in heavy volume.

Regional Equities - Nov 20 (Reuters) - Major Southeast Asian stock markets closed higher on Tuesday, with the Philippines hitting a record high on hopes that the U.S. Congress reaches a compromise to avoid the "fiscal cliff" that threatens to derail the world's largest economy.

Optimism over averting the U.S. fiscal crisis was, however, capped by renewed concerns over the euro zone debt crisis after a credit rating agency stripped France of its top-notch rating.