Monday, July 9, 2012

RTRS-Informa lowers U.S. corn, soy yield estimates

July 6 (Reuters) - Private analytical firm Informa Economics lowered its estimate for the U.S. 2012 corn yield to 153.5 bushels per acre from its previous figure of 154.9 in late June, the firm said on Friday in a note to clients.

It calculated U.S. corn production at 13.641 billion bushels, compared with its June 29 estimate of 13.76 billion.

U.S. corn and soybean crops have been hurt by hot, dry weather this summer, USDA and analysts have said.

Informa officials had no comment on the figures but in a copy of the note obtained by Reuters, the firm noted above-normal temperatures in June and well below-normal rainfall totals.

"July state yield forecasts were reduced in nearly 20 states from Informa's early season trend with Kansas reduced the most, down 30 bushels," Informa's note said.

The firm's corn estimates were below the U.S. Department of Agriculture's current forecasts for a crop of 14.790 billion bushels based on a record-high yield of 166 bushels per acre.

USDA revised its 2012 U.S. acreage estimates last week and the government was scheduled to issue updated crop production and yield estimates on July 11.

Informa lowered its estimate of the U.S. 2012 soybean yield to 42.0 bushels per acre, from its previous estimate of 42.7. It estimated soybean production at 3.161 billion bushels, compared with its June 29 estimate of 3.21 billion.

USDA currently projects the soybean crop at 3.205 billion bushels based on an average yield of 43.9 bushels per acre.

"Informa lowered its (soybean) yield forecast for several states due to this season's below-average start," the firm said.

"Conditions have been notably dry and warm in the Eastern Corn Belt as well as the southern part of the Western Corn Belt. The Mid-South also has been dry and warm, stressing soybeans especially in Tennessee," the firm said.

RTRS- Malaysia's June palm stocks seen at 14-month low

SINGAPORE, July 6 (Reuters) - Malaysia's palm oil stocks likely dropped to a 14-month low in June, as exports and local demand offset a rise in production, a Reuters median survey showed on Friday.

Stocks in the world's No.2 producer of the vegetable oil probably fell 2.2 percent to 1.73 million tonnes, the lowest since April 2011, the survey of six plantation houses showed, potentially supporting benchmark palm oil futures.

Malaysia most likely exported 1.46 million tonnes of the tropical oil in June, up 4.3 percent from a month ago and the highest this year so far as the Asian festival season begins with the Muslim holy month of Ramadan where fasting in the day is followed by feasts at night.

India, Pakistan and the Middle East were seen stocking up ahead of the fasting month Ramadan that begins in the third week of July.

Ramadan ends with Eid al-Fitr celebrations in August and is followed soon after by China's Mid-Autumn festival in September and India's Hindu festival of Diwali in November, boosting exports in the months to come.

When combining Malaysia's exports to domestic consumption of 170,120 tonnes in June, overall demand trumped total output that probably grew 7.7 percent from May to 1.49 million tonnes.

Production improved on a favourable crop weather but is still way below 1.75 million tonnes last year, keeping stocks low, said one of the survey respondents.

Imports of crude palm oil from top producer Indonesia were expected to reach 100,000 tonnes from previous month's 40,690 tonnes, as refiners expect strong demand in coming weeks.

FACTORS TO WATCH:


Exports most likely are going to rise in July , as hot and dry weather in the U.S. Midwest that squeezed global oilseed supplies is expected to shift more demand to the cheaper palm oil.

A slew of festivals beginning with Ramadan may boost exports and weigh on stocks, unless production picks up and makes up for the shortfall.

But planters will be watching out for El Nino, which brings hot and dry weather to Southeast Asia that could sap oil palm yields at a time when demand is on the rise.

Indonesia lowered its refined palm oil tax to 7 percent in July from a month ago, and is expected to capture a larger share of the increased demand for the edible oil.

The top producer's crude palm oil exports might grow thanks to a lower tax rate at 15 percent in July, which will attract orders from Malaysia that faces a shortage in supply.
MARKET REACTION:

The benchmark third-month palm oil futures FCPOc3 contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange hit its lowest in 2012 in June at 2,839 ringgit ($898), as the euro zone debt crisis triggered a flight of capital from riskier assets.

Futures have been steadily recovering since on expectations that persistent dry and hot weather in U.S. Midwest soy crops will shift demand to palm oil.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - Stocks fell, the euro hit a two-year low against the dollar and oil slumped more than 3 percent on Friday after disappointing U.S. jobs growth reinforced worries the American economy was mired in a slow-growth rut.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that employers created only 80,000 jobs in June, far fewer than needed to bring down the 8.2 percent unemployment rate and adding to evidence that Europe's debt crisis was weighing on global growth. (nL2E8I56V0)

Although the jobs creation was weaker than expected, many investors said it was not bad enough to spur the Federal Reserve to launch a third round of quantitative easing.

"This isn't disappointing enough for QE3, but it suggests an extended period of sluggish growth and limited improvement on the jobs front," said Eric Teal, who helps oversee $4.5 billion as chief investment officer at First Citizens Bancshares Inc in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Though Fed action might cheer some investors, many doubt the ability of central banks to lift the economic gloom. More than two-thirds of companies traded on both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq fell.

Commodities prices tumbled as the jobs data fueled worries about the global economy and the demand for raw materials. In addition to the slump in oil prices, copper lost 2 percent and gold 1 percent, pushing the 19-commodity Thomson Reuters CRB index .CRB to its worst performance since Dec. 15.

U.S. and German government bond prices jumped as investors sought safe havens.

The U.S. jobs data came a day after the European Central Bank cut interest rates, further dampening the euro's appeal, and China and the Bank of England announced more monetary easing.

With U.S. interest rates already near zero the loosening of monetary policy in Europe and China diminishes the relative interest rate advantages held over the greenback.

The euro EUR= fell 1 percent to a two-year low of $1.2264 before rebounding to $1.2296, off 0.77 percent. The dollar rose to a 1-1/2-year high against the Swiss franc.

"Politically and economically, it is not the environment for the euro to rally. ... In a week or a month's time, it can easily get back down towards below $1.2280 and maybe even head towards $1.20," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at FOREX.com in London.

At the close on Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 124.20 points, or 0.96 percent, at 12,772.47. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 12.90 points, or 0.94 percent, at 1,354.68. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 38.79 points, or 1.30 percent, at 2,937.33.
The jobs report followed other bleak news earlier this week that U.S. manufacturing shrank in June and service sector growth slowed to its lowest level since January 2010.

European shares posted their worst one-day fall in around two weeks, with the FTSEurofirst 300 index .FTEU3 closing down 1 percent at 1,033.77 points. World stocks .MIWD00000PUS ended down 1 percent.

Spanish borrowing costs rose back above the 7 percent danger level on Friday as the impact from last week's European Union summit faded and the ECB's rate cut on Thursday did little to restore investor appetite for riskier assets.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures tumbled on Friday, ending more than 3 percent lower as data showed disappointing jobs data for June that prompted deeper worries about the stalling economic recovery.
 
CBOT SOYBEAN-Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell on Friday as disappointing U.S. payrolls data and expectations of cooler temperatures in the U.S. Midwest prompted traders to book profits after a four-day rally.

• The euro fell to a two-year low against the U.S. dollar after data showed U.S. employers hired at a dismal pace in June, stoking strong risk aversion and a flight to safe havens. USD/

• Most-active November soybeans SX2 fell about 1.2 percent, the contract's largest decline in two weeks.

• Spot soybeans Sc1 nonetheless ended the week up 7 percent, the third straight weekly rise on continuous charts and the biggest since mid-October, lifted by fears of deteriorating yields amid a scorching heat wave in the Midwest.

• Spot soymeal SMc1 rose to $476 a ton, the highest spot price on record, before settling lower.

• The Midwest crop belt endured another day of excessive heat Friday that will persist in southern areas on Saturday, but a cold front should usher in more seasonal temperatures by Sunday, easing stress on crops. (nL2E8I6ANA)

• Informa Economics lowered its estimate of the U.S. 2012 soybean yield to 42.0 bushels per acre, from its previous estimate of 42.7, citing warm, dry weather. Informa estimated soybean production at 3.161 billion bushels, compared with its June 29 estimate of 3.21 billion. (nL2E8I692N)

• USDA confirmed sales of 120,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for 2011/12 delivery. (nL2E8I639W)

• USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the week to June 28 at 1.763 million tonnes (old and new crop years combined), above trade expectations for 400,000 to 650,000 tonnes.

• USDA reported weekly export sales of U.S. soymeal at 177,800 tonnes (old and new crop years combined) and soyoil sales at 6,800 tonnes, within trade estimates.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, July 6 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures eased from a fresh five-week high on Friday as some traders booked profits from an overbought market, although expectations of strong demand curbed losses.

Palm oil posted a 3.6 percent gain this week, thanks to the hot and dry weather in the U.S. that has damaged soybean crops.

The prospects of limited soyoil supply could shift demand to palm oil that has been the target of last-minute buying ahead of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan starting in end-July.

"The uptrend is definitely still intact with traders speculating on the adverse weather and generally lower end-stock," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

Benchmark September palm oil futures FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 1.1 percent to close at 3,133 ringgit ($988) per tonne. Prices earlier touched a high of 3,183 ringgit, a level unseen since May 29.

Traded volumes stood at 26,272 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

On the technicals front, palm oil is expected to end the current rebound around resistance at 3,193 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. (nL3E8I60OY)

The market is on the lookout for a slew of data to be released next week to gauge the demand and supply trend for palm oil.

Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance will issue Malaysia's exports data for the first 10 days of July on Tuesday. Industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will issue official data on stocks and output for June on the same day.

Exports rose in June to close to 1.45 million tonnes, the highest so far this year, riding on higher demand from India, Pakistan and the Middle East.

Higher exports and domestic demand could pile further pressure on Malaysia's stocks, which most probably dropped to a 14-month low in June, according to a Reuters median survey. (nL3E8I5373)

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, July 6 (Reuters) - Singapore stocks edged up on Friday, posting their biggest weekly gain since December, as China's rate cut boosted hopes on earnings of companies with exposure to the mainland while investors in the region were cautious ahead of U.S. jobs data.

The Singapore index rose for the eighth straight session.

Singapore's Straits Times Index .FTSTI rose 0.24 percent, lifted by a 2.8 percent gain in property developer CapitaLand Ltd CATL.SI and a 6.4 percent rise in Yanlord Land Group Ltd YNLG.SI amid strong trading volume.

The Straits Times index gained 3.5 percent this week, the best performer in Southeast Asia. Jakarta's Composite Index .JKSE racked up a 2.5 percent gain on the week, the second best and its best weekly rise since March.

Indonesia appeared attracting more foreign buying interest than regional peers, with $163 million net inflows in the week to Thursday against $115 million in inflows of the Philippines, Thailand's $21 million inflows and Vietnam's $1.8 million.