Monday, July 9, 2012

RTRS-Informa lowers U.S. corn, soy yield estimates

July 6 (Reuters) - Private analytical firm Informa Economics lowered its estimate for the U.S. 2012 corn yield to 153.5 bushels per acre from its previous figure of 154.9 in late June, the firm said on Friday in a note to clients.

It calculated U.S. corn production at 13.641 billion bushels, compared with its June 29 estimate of 13.76 billion.

U.S. corn and soybean crops have been hurt by hot, dry weather this summer, USDA and analysts have said.

Informa officials had no comment on the figures but in a copy of the note obtained by Reuters, the firm noted above-normal temperatures in June and well below-normal rainfall totals.

"July state yield forecasts were reduced in nearly 20 states from Informa's early season trend with Kansas reduced the most, down 30 bushels," Informa's note said.

The firm's corn estimates were below the U.S. Department of Agriculture's current forecasts for a crop of 14.790 billion bushels based on a record-high yield of 166 bushels per acre.

USDA revised its 2012 U.S. acreage estimates last week and the government was scheduled to issue updated crop production and yield estimates on July 11.

Informa lowered its estimate of the U.S. 2012 soybean yield to 42.0 bushels per acre, from its previous estimate of 42.7. It estimated soybean production at 3.161 billion bushels, compared with its June 29 estimate of 3.21 billion.

USDA currently projects the soybean crop at 3.205 billion bushels based on an average yield of 43.9 bushels per acre.

"Informa lowered its (soybean) yield forecast for several states due to this season's below-average start," the firm said.

"Conditions have been notably dry and warm in the Eastern Corn Belt as well as the southern part of the Western Corn Belt. The Mid-South also has been dry and warm, stressing soybeans especially in Tennessee," the firm said.