Wednesday, February 20, 2013

RTRS - Oil World cuts Argentine 2013 soybean crop forecast, ups Brazil


HAMBURG, Feb 19 (Reuters) - German oilseeds analyst Oil World on Tuesday cut its forecast of the 2013 soybean harvest in Argentina by 2 million tonnes because of dry weather, but has raised its forecast of Brazil's soybean crop by 0.5 million tonnes.

Oil World now forecasts Argentina will harvest 50.0 million tonnes of soybeans in early 2013, down from 52.0 million tonnes it forecast in January and 53.0 million tonnes forecast in December but still up from the 39.9 million tonnes Argentina harvested in early 2012.

Hamburg-based Oil World also said it has raised its forecast of Brazil's 2013 crop to 82.0 million tonnes from 81.5 million tonnes forecast in January and up from 66.4 million tonnes Brazil harvested in early 2012 because of more favourable weather.

“It has been critically dry in the past four to six weeks on at least 40 to 50 percent of the Argentine soybean area, depleting soil moisture and creating crop stress,” Oil World said.

“There is the risk of additional downward revisions unless the required rainfall arrives in the next one to three weeks.”

Global soybean consumers are intensely watching South American crop developments as big Argentine and Brazilian harvests are needed in early 2013 to relieve the tight global soybean market, where the U.S. is carrying the main burden of meeting world export demand.

Soybean prices hit record highs in September 2012 as drought hit the U.S. crop after poor Argentine and Brazilian harvests. Prices later fell back as the U.S. harvest turned out better than feared and big South American crops in early 2013 may relieve world supplies.

Argentina is the world's third-largest soybean exporter after the United States and Brazil. The U.S. 

Department of Agriculture on Feb. 8 forecast Argentina's 2013 soybean crop at 53.0 million tonnes. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange forecasts 50 million tonnes.

Argentina’s farm ministry on Friday said recent rain was insufficient to help soybean crops and more rain is needed.

Brazil’s soybean harvest has started and Argentina’s will begin in late March or early April, Oil World said.
Early Brazilian exports were delayed because of lower-than-expected early harvested volumes and road transport delays after rain, it said.

“It is now likely however, that Brazilian exports will start increasing in the second half of February and gain momentum in March and April,” Oil World said.

RTRS - Oil World raises forecast of 2012 and 2013 global palm oil output


HAMBURG, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Global palm oil production is likely to be higher than expected in the 2012/13 season, but global stocks may still fall because of high consumption, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

“World production of palm oil exceeded expectations so far this season, making us raise our production estimate to a new high of 55.3 million tonnes in Oct. 2012/Sept. 2013, 0.3 million tonnes above our previous estimate and 3.4 million tonnes above last season,” Oil World said.

Output in top producer Indonesia in 2012/13 will reach 27.4 million tonnes, up 1.5 million tonnes on the season, Oil World estimates.

Malaysian 2012/13 palm oil output will rise to 19.7 million tonnes, also up 1.5 million tonnes on the previous season, it said.

Global palm oil supplies will remain ample at least in Jan./June 2013 also partly owing to record world stocks in January of 10.5 million tonnes, up by 1.8 million tonnes on January 2012, it said. Stocks are important for global palm oil price development.

Low palm oil prices compared to rival soyoil means global palm oil consumption may exceed production by about 1.4 to 1.5 million tonnes in Jan./Mar. 2013, reducing palm oil stocks despite the higher-than-expected production, Oil World said.

World palm oil stocks may fall to around 9.0 million tonnes in end March 2013, it said.

“This is likely to result in a narrowing of the still unusually large price discount of palm oil relative to soyoil,” it said.

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, Feb 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday as this year's ongoing surge in merger activity suggested investors were still finding value in the market even as indexes closed in on all-time highs.

Office Depot Inc surged 9.4 percent to $5.02 after a person familiar with the matter said the No. 2 U.S. office supply retailer was in advanced talks to merge with smaller rival OfficeMax Inc , which jumped more than 20 percent.

Deal activity has helped equities resist a pullback as investors use dips in stocks as buying opportunities. The S&P is up about 7 percent so far in 2013 and has climbed for the past seven weeks in its longest weekly winning streak since January 2011, though most of the weekly gains have been slim.

The Dow industrials closed 0.9 percent away from their record high while S&P 500 was 2.2 percent off its peak.

"Deals are good for the market," said Frank Lesh, a futures analyst and broker at FuturePath Trading LLC in Chicago. "The fact that they're being done is a positive."

More than $158 billion in deals has been announced so far in 2013, more than double the activity in the same period last year and accounting for 57 percent of global deal volumes, according to Thomson Reuters Deals Intelligence.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 53.91 points, or 0.39 percent, to 14,035.67. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index  gained 11.15 points, or 0.73 percent, to 1,530.94. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 21.56 points, or 0.68 percent, to 3,213.59.

"Equity investors have to be encouraged by M&A since, if the number crunchers are offering large premiums, that shows how much value is still in the market," said Mike Gibbs, co-head of the equity advisory group at Raymond James in Memphis, Tennessee.

Wall Street's strong start to the year was fueled by better-than-expected corporate earnings, as well as a compromise in Washington that temporarily averted automatic spending cuts and tax hikes that are predicted to damage the economy.

The compromise on across-the-board spending cuts postponed the matter until March 1, at which point the cuts take effect. Ahead of the debate over the cuts, known as sequestration, further gains for stocks may be difficult to come by.

Some investors say the debate could be the catalyst for a long anticipated sell-off after the market's recent strong run.

Carter Worth, a technical analyst at Oppenheimer, pointed to the "especially complacent action of the past six weeks," noting that, as of Friday, stocks have gone 33 sessions without a dip of more than 1.5 percent.
"We would be selling aggressively into the market's current strength," he said in a research note.

Economic data showed the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index unexpectedly edged down to 46 in February from 47 in the prior month as builders faced higher material costs.

According to the Thomson Reuters data through Monday morning, of the 391 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results, 70.1 percent have exceeded analysts' expectations, compared with a 62 percent average since 1994 and 65 percent over the past four quarters.

Fourth-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies have risen 5.6 percent, according to the data, above a 1.9 percent forecast at the start of the earnings season.

About two stocks rose for everyone that fell on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. About 6.48 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, in line with the daily average so far this year.


NYMEX - PERTH, Feb 19 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures slipped in early Asian trading on Tuesday, after a day of light trading due to the U.S. President's Day holiday.

FUNDAMENTALS
  • U.S. crude for March delivery  dropped 26 cents to $95.60 a barrel by 0119 GMT.
  • Brent crude rose 10 cents to $117.48 a barrel.
  • A bearish target of $116.28 per barrel remains unchanged for Brent as a correction from the Feb. 8 high of $119.17 will continue. U.S. oil is expected to drop to $94.24 per barrel, as indicated by its wave pattern, according to a Reuters technical analysis.
  • U.S. manufacturing got off to a weak start this year as motor vehicle output tumbled in January, but a rebound in factory activity in New York state this month suggested any setback would be temporary. 
* A sharp cut in Saudi Arabia's crude output and exports may support crude prices going forward.

* Major powers plan to offer an easing of sanctions on trading gold and other precious metals with Iran in return for steps to shut down Iran's newly expanded Fordow uranium enrichment plant, Western officials told Reuters.

* Brazil's state-led Petroleo Brasileiro SA  was forced to shut down operations for nearly a day at its PPM-1 offshore oil platform in the Pampo Field after an oil leak.

CBOT Soybean Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade surged 3 percent, rising to a one-week high as weekend rains in Argentina fell short of expectations and China bought old-crop U.S. soybeans, traders said.
 
·         USDA said private exporters reported sales of 120,000  tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for 2012/13 delivery, raising  concerns that the world's top soy buyer could seek more from  scarce U.S. "old crop" stocks. 
 
·         Adding to fears that port problems in Brazil will steer soy export demand to the United States, Brazilian dock workers  refused for a second day to let nonunion workers unload a   Chinese ship at Santos Port. 

 
·         Rains forecast to bring relief to wilting Argentine soy and corn crops over the weekend were lighter than expected,raising the prospect of lower yields in the 2012/13 harvest, a weather specialist said on Monday.

·         Oilseeds analyst Oil World cut its forecast of Argentina's 2013 soybean harvest to 50 million tonnes, from 52 million last month, due to dry weather. Oil World also raised its forecast of Brazil's crop to 82.0 million tonnes, from 81.5 million tonnes last month. 

·         Brazil's soybean harvest was 19 percent complete by Friday, up from 12 percent a week earlier and above the five-year average of 10 percent, analyst Celeres said.

·         Snow and freezing temperatures in the major rapeseed  growing areas of central China drove domestic rape meal futures to a record high, with traders anticipating damaged crops and a decline in output.   
 
·         USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 40.384 million bushels, at the low end of trade expectations for 40 million to 45 million bushels.     



FCPO - SINGAPORE, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged higher on Tuesday, tracking gains in soybeans after disappointing rains in Argentina raised the prospect of a smaller crop.

U.S. soybeans rose to a one-week high, resuming trading after the President's Day holiday, as rain that had been expected to bring relief to wilting Argentine soybean crops over the weekend proved to be lighter than expected.

A smaller soybean crop for crushing into soybean oil may shift more demand to competing palm oil that trades at a steep discount of almost $300 per tonne.

"There was news of much less rain received than expected in Argentina this week, and Chinese players are also positive after coming back from the Lunar New Year break," said a Singapore-based trader with a regional commodities house.

The benchmark May contract  on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 1.1 percent to close at 2,565 ringgit ($827) per tonne. Prices traded in a range of 2,550 to 2,575 ringgit.

Total traded volumes stood at 33,012 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the typical 25,000 tonnes.

Technicals showed Malaysian palm oil is expected to rise to 2,593 ringgit per tonne, as indicated by a rising wedge, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Traders are awaiting the Malaysian Feb. 1-20 palm export data due on Wednesday, after rising shipments in the first half of the month raised hopes for stocks to ease further.

Malaysia's January palm oil stocks inched down 1.9 percent from a month ago to 2.58 million tonnes, the first drop since last June.

Industry players are also expecting stronger export demand for crude palm oil this month as exporters take advantage of February's zero percent tax before it rises to 4.5 percent in March.

Brent crude edged lower towards $117 per barrel on Tuesday, adding to losses across the previous three sessions, with traders waiting for U.S. data to provide clues to growth in the world's largest oil user, besides weekend elections in Italy.

Other competing vegetable oil markets also gained on Argentine soy crop worries. The most active U.S. soyoil for May delivery gained 1 percent in late Asian trade. The most active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange edged up 0.7 percent.


Regional EquitiesFeb 19 (Reuters) - The Philippines stock market gained to a record on Tuesday led by property developer Ayala Land Inc  on foreign inflows, while others ended mixed ahead of German economic data, which may provide investors some direction after last week's weaker euro zone data.

The Philippine index , which saw a net foreign inflow of $17.7 million, hit a fresh all-time high of 6,632.56 points, before ending 0.85 percent up at 6,620.72, surpassing its previous record close of 6,582.51 on Monday.

Shares in Ayala Land, the largest property developer in the Philippines, which posted a 27 percent rise in net profit last week, gained 2.9 percent to its record high of 31.8 peso.

Bangkok's SET index rose 0.58 percent to 1,532.07, to hit an 18-year high as domestic institutions bought large cap stocks, but volume was light as investors were cautious ahead of a central bank rate review.

A 1.4 percent gain in Singapore Telecommunications Ltd.. helped boost its overall Straight Times Index  to end 0.2 percent up at 3295.77.

Malaysia  and Indonesia  lost 0.4 percent and 0.2 percent respectively despite foreign inflows. Jakarta saw a net foreign buying of $74.5 million, while Kuala Lumpur witnessed $9.85 million of inflows on Tuesday.

Vietnam , the region's best market this year, ended 0.6 percent weaker at 490.78. 


FOREX - NEW YORK, Feb 19 (Reuters) - The yen rose against the dollar and euro on Tuesday as disagreement between Japanese officials raised doubts over how aggressively Japan will ease its monetary policy.