Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Trader's Comment: CPO futures ended higher after a range bound trading on the back of good export numbers.

CPO futures ended higher after a range bound trading on the back of good export numbers. Benchmark Jun09 had been hovering between 1997-1977 level through out most of the sessions before it hit intra day high of 2002 in late trading and finally settled RM30 higher at 2000. The released of unexpectedly good export data by both private cargo surveyors had provided some support to the local bourse. ITS reported a decline of merely 0.5% while SGS unexpectedly posted an increase of 5.4% for the end Mar export data. External factors were also supportive as both eCBOT soy oil and Dalian palm edged higher in Asian time trading. However, trading were rather thin as palyers were cautiously awaiting for new leads from the grains stock and planting report which is due to be released by USDA later tonight. Total volume stood at 9,742 contracts transacted.

CPO Tender Summary and Delivery Location as at March 2009

Breaking News-RTRS-U.S. corn supply seen larger, soy stocks shrinking

CHICAGO, March 27 (Reuters) - Reduced demand from livestock and poultry producers and overseas buyers led to a larger U.S. stockpile of corn compared with last year, analysts said ahead of the U.S. Agriculture Department's quarterly grain stocks report.
Wheat stocks were expected to be larger because of a sharp drop in exports, but soybean stocks were likely smaller due to strong demand for U.S. supplies amid drought concerns about the South American crop.
USDA will release its corn, soybean and wheat quarterly stocks figures on Tuesday morning.

Breaking News-RTRS-Argentine farmers end strike, vow to fight soy tax

BUENOS AIRES, March 27 (Reuters) - Argentine farmers wrapped up a week-long strike on Friday, vowing to lobby Congress to cut the soy export taxes that have fueled a bitter year-long conflict with the government.
Farmers in the agricultural powerhouse halted sales of soybeans, other crops and livestock for seven days, bringing local grains and cattle markets to a standstill and helping drive U.S. soy futures to a five-week high this week.
Despite the end of the strike, farm leaders said they would keep on fighting the soy levies as the country prepares for mid-term elections in June, seen as a key test for President Cristina Fernandez.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, March 30 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks tumbled on Monday as two major U.S. automakers took a step closer to potential bankruptcy, and a spate of European bank rescues heightened concerns over the financial system's health, putting the brakes on a recent run-up.

In the latest efforts in its campaign to shore up the economy and struggling corporations, the U.S. administration forced out General Motors Corp's CEO, pushed Chrysler LLC toward a merger and threatened bankruptcy for both.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> lost 254.16 points, or 3.27 percent, to 7,522.02. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> tumbled 28.41 points, or 3.48 percent, to 787.53. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> fell 43.40 points, or 2.81 percent, to 1,501.80.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, March 30 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures settled more than 7 percent lower on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar, stock markets weighed down by concerns about U.S. auto companies and banks, and worries about demand in the slowed economy.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude settled down $3.97, or 7.58 percent, at $48.41 a barrel, trading between $52.25 and $48.11, lowest since prices fell to $46.92 on March 18.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May down 12-1/2 cents at $9.04-1/2 a bushel.

Firm dollar and tumbling stock market weighing on soy along with pressure from lower crude oil. News Argentine farmers ending a farmer strike also bearish for U.S. soy futures prices.

CBOT-SOYOIL - May off 0.38 cent at 32.04 cents a pound.

Lower crude oil and drop in U.S. stock markets lending pressure in addition to weight from firm dollar.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, March 30 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures fell 1.0 percent on Monday amid lower crude oil prices and as traders awaited palm oil export numbers.

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange declined 20 ringgit to 1,970 ringgit ($539.3) per tonne. The contract fell 2.2 percent on Friday.

Other traded months dropped by between 27 and 60 ringgit. <0#KPO:>. Overall volume was 9,078 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 10,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, March 30 (Reuters) - Major Southeast Asian stock
markets fell to a one-week low on Monday amid crisis in the U.S. automobile industry, with Singapore leading the losses.

Singapore's benchmark index <.FTSTI> dropped 4.2 percent, earlier losing as much as 5 percent to its lowest since March 23, while Thailand's SET index <.SETI> slid 2.5 percent.

Malaysia's main index <.KLSE> ended down 1.8 percent at its lowest since March 23, with Sime Darby down 2.5 percent, Malayan Banking falling 6.0 percent and financial service group CIMB 2 percent lower.

DJI Daily: Looks tiredness


Market looks exhausted and may want to take a breathe after fail to challenge the tough resistance at 8000 mark. Downside support is pegged at 7300-7200.

KLSE Daily: Losing strength


Market was losing upside strength following support at 870-868 was violated completely. We are now looking for the upside resistance at 890. To the downside, support is pegged at 860-850.

FKLI Daily: Correction


Double top formation is exist following prices unable to break through the tough resistance at 895 level. Market looks may enter to a correction phase for near term. For upside, resistance is at 895. while, downside support is at 860-850.

FCPO Daily: Looks peakish


Market looks peakish after struggling around 2000 mark but still failed to stay firm. Thus, market may due for correction in near term. As for now, upside resistance is looking at 2000-2058. To the downside, support is remained at 1955-1950 followed by 1900-1890.

Monday, March 30, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures extended from yesterday’s losses on weak global commodities market.

Palm oil futures extended from yesterday’s losses on weak global commodities market. The sharp fall of overnight NYMEX crude oil and CBOT soy oil led Benchmark Jun09 to open RM23 lower at 1967. It was supported well initially as it bounced back immediately to intra day high of 2005, fully covered its yesterday’s left over gap. However, lack of follow through buying activities coupled with the gloomy global market outlook saw Benchmark Jun09 to ease off and fell to hit intra day low of 1961 in the afternoon session. eCBOT soy oil surrendered its earlier gains to edge lower in late trading and Dalian palm ended more than 1% lower. Regional equity market encountered a sharp fall today while Asian time NYMEX crude oil also fell to below $51 level. Benchmark Jun09 finally settled RM20 lower at 1970. Players await of Mar09 export data which scheduled to be released tomorrow by private cargo surveyors, expecting a poorer number.

Breaking News-RTRS-US rejects automaker pleas for more funds; G20 readies

WASHINGTON, March 30 (Reuters) - A White House task force rejected multi-billion dollar pleas from U.S. automakers General Motors and Chrsyler for more government aid, pushing them closer to bankruptcies that could deepen the U.S. recession.

Breaking News-RTRS-USDA to forecast more U.S. soy acres, less corn

CHICAGO, March 26 (Reuters) - High fertilizer prices and more cropland available for spring planting due to fewer winter wheat seedings should result in a big jump in U.S. soybean acres in 2009 and reduced corn acreage, grain analysts say.
Analysts polled by Reuters on average expect USDA to peg 2009 U.S. corn acreage at 84.411 million acres, down from 86 million a year ago. Soybean acres, on the other hand, are seen rising to a record 79.622 million, up from 75.7 million in 2008.

Breaking News-RTRS-Soyoil starts moving from India ports after tax cut

NEW DELHI, March 27 (Reuters) - Up to 130,000 tonnes of crude soyoil imports, about two months worth of shipments, has started moving from Indian ports after the scrapping of a 20 percent import tax this week, traders and importers said.
Analysts said it should ensure adequate supplies and stabilise prices as the country heads into elections in April and May.

Breaking News-RTRS-Northern US flooding may cut wheat crop, boost soy

FARGO, North Dakota, March 26 (Reuters) - North Dakota and Minnesota girded for the worst flooding in years, which could prompt farmers to cut spring wheat plantings by as much as 500,000 acres in the four main wheat-producing U.S. states.
Fargo, N.D. was expecting a 41-foot crest on the Red River by Saturday that would break a 112-year-old record.
Farmers still able to seed a crop will look hard at soybeans, which can be planted as late as early June, experts said.

Breaking News-RTRS-China soyoil strong as more crushers close -survey

BEIJING, March 27 (Reuters) - China's soyoil market has turned bullish as supplies tighten amid more crushers shutting down operations in the north, but the outlook will be pressured by heavy imports of soybeans, an official survey showed.
Soyoil demand will "stay at a high level" in coming weeks as retailers are building up stocks, the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) said in the report.

Breaking News-RTRS-China agency prepares for soybean stock sale-trade

BEIJING, March 27 (Reuters) - China's state grains agency Sinograin has notified local warehouses that it will release some of the soybeans it has stockpiled into the local market, trade sources said, but it remained uncertain how much would be sold.
Some Chinese brokers said Sinograin could release about 500,000 tonnes, half as much as rumoured in Chicago on Thursday, when soybean prices fell due to talk of the stock release.

Breaking News-RTRS-Argentine farmers wrap up strike, mull new protests

BUENOS AIRES, March 27 (Reuters) - Argentine farmers said they would end a strike on Friday but their leaders were already considering new protests against the soy export taxes that have fueled a year-long conflict with the center-left government.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, March 27 (Reuters) - Wall Street capped a strong week on a down note on Friday as investors booked profits in the wake of the recent upward surge and bank shares dropped after bank executives indicated March had been a tougher month
for the industry than the previous two.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 148.38 points, or 1.87 percent, to 7,776.18. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> shed 16.92 points, or 2.03 percent, to 815.94. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> slid 41.80 points, or 2.63 percent, to 1,545.20.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, March 27 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended more than 3 percent lower on Friday as traders booked profits after prices rose to a four-month high above $54 on Thursday.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude settled at $52.38, down $1.96 or 3.61 percent, trading from $51.64 to $54.28. Thursday's $54.66 intraday high was a 2009 peak and the highest since Nov. 28.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- May down 27 cents per bushel at $9.17 per bushel.

Drop of stock market, weak crude oil and firm dollar weighed on soy as did news China was releasing soy into the local market [ID:nPEK184023] and optimism that the Argentine farmer strike will end by the weekend.

CBOT-SOYOIL - May down 1.18 cents per lb. at 32.42 cents per lb. Following soybeans with lower crude oil also weighing on prices.

FCPO-JAKARTA, March 27 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures dropped 2.2 percent on Friday as investors, made uneasy by a lack of physical market deals, took profits following a sharp rise in the previous session, traders said.

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped 45 ringgit to 1,990 ringgit ($550) per tonne. The contract rose 3.2 percent on Thursday.

Other traded months dropped by between 6 and 30 ringgit. <0#KPO:>. Overall volume was 11,579 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, March 27 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks mostly
ended higher on Friday amid optimism that the U.S. economy might see better times soon, but Singapore bucked the trend due to losses in index heavyweights such as DBS Group.

Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> closed down 0.75 percent but was still up 9.3 percent on the week, hovering around eight-week highs.

Malaysian shares <.KLSE> snapped earlier losses to close unchanged. The Indonesian bourse <.JKSE> touched an 11-week high, adding 3.01 percent, and Thai shares <.SETI> rose 0.32 percent, but analysts said an anti-government rally in Bangkok capped gains.

DJI Weekly: trying to bottom out


Market looks to build up base and trying to bottom out. However, it has to crack above 8000 mark for a sustainable upside momentum. To the downside, support is pegged at 7300-7200.

KLSE Weekly: May due for correction


Market may due for correction in near term after the recent rebound. Thus, upside resistance at 890-900 while downside support is at 860-850.

FKLI Weekly: Remains sideway


Sideways move likely to continue in near term market with resistance and support is looking at 900 and 870-860 level respectively.

FCPO Weekly: Struggle around 2000 mark


Market struggles after few attempts failed to break through the recent high at 2058 (high since 1st July, 2009). However, we maintain our view sideways to higher in near term market. Upside resistance is stood at 2051-2058. While, downside support is pegged at 1900-1890.

Friday, March 27, 2009

Trader's Comment: CPO futures ended lower after a jumpy tight range trading.

CPO futures ended lower after a jumpy tight range trading. Initially it started with mixed to easier with Benchmark Jun09 opened RM5 lower at 2030 and drifted to 2007 and finish at 2010 for the morning break. Market tone were rather mix, hiher closed in overnight CBOT and NYMEX crude oil were offset by easier Asian time trading. Prices slid further in the afternoon session to hit 1990 following softer soy oil prices trading in eCBOT. It managed to bounce back to hit 2030 and then trading in a choppy manner between 2000-2020. Last split of second selling during the auction time sent Benchmark Jun09 to settle RM45 lower at 1990.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, March 26 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rallied for a second straight day on Thursday, taking the Nasdaq back into positive territory for the year-to-date, on increasing optimism that the economy's worst days are behind after the government
reported data that was less dire than expected.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> jumped 174.75 points, or 2.25 percent, to 7,924.56. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> spiked 18.98 points, or 2.33 percent, to 832.86. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> surged 58.05 points, or 3.80
percent, to 1,587.00.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, March 26 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended up nearly 3 percent on Thursday, spurred on by Wall Street, where investors bet that economic troubles may be abating.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude settled up $1.57, or 2.98 percent, at $54.34 a barrel, trading from $52.76 to $54.66, a new 2009 peak. It was also the highest settlement since Nov. 28, when prices closed at $54.43, with the day's high also the highest since that day.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May down 7 cents at $9.44 a bushel.

Fears that China may release some soybeans it has been holding in reserve weighs on market in addition to optimism the Argentine farmer strike will end this weekend.

Census Bureau said U.S. February soy crush 135.60 million bushels, above average trade estimate for 134.9 million.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- May up 0.23 cent at 33.60 cents a lb. Gains in crude oil supportive.

Census Bureau said U.S. February soyoil stocks 3.027 billion lbs., below average trade estimate for 3.036 billion.

FCPO
-KUALA LUMPUR, March 26 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures climbed 3.19 percent on Thursday, snapping a two-day losing streak as investors re-entered the market on the back of higher crude oil prices and recovering shipments, traders said.

At the close, the benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 63 ringgit to 2,035 ringgit ($561.7) per tonne. Other traded months gained between 25 and 71 ringgit <#KPO:>. Overall volumes stood at 15,507 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, March 26 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks were higher on Thursday as better U.S. economic data offered tentative signs that a recovery might be near, sending both Singapore and the Philippines to multi-week highs.

Regional shares followed Wall Street and other Asian bourses higher, but analysts remained cautious. Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> led gainers, closing
up almost 4 percent.

In Kuala Lumpur, the index rose for a second day to close up 0.8 percent, lifted by a 6.8 percent gain in Resort World Bhd . Gamuda , the second-largest builder, ended up 4.1 percent after hitting a more than one-month high.

DJI Daily: still below 8000 mark.


Market was getting close to the upside resistance. However, it has to crack above 8000 mark in order to maintain the upside posture. Downside support is adjusted to 7500.

KLSE Daily: eye on 890.5-900 mark


Market maintained its sideways to higher posture. Resistance and support is at 890.5-900 and 870-868 level respectively.

FKLI Daily: likely to challenge 892-900 again!


Market just half point away from our target looks is likely to challenge again the upside resistance at 892-900 level. Downside support is pegged at 873-870.

FCPO Daily: Stayed firm at 2000 mark


Market looks firm at 2000 mark with prices close at day high. Thus, it may want to challenge upside resistance at 2051-2058 followed by 2100. While, downside support remained at 1955-1950 followed by 1900.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures recovered from yesterday’s losses to end generally higher on late covering.

Palm oil futures recovered from yesterday’s losses to end generally higher on late covering. Benchmark open RM24 higher at 1996, tracking the firm Dalian palm prices in the early trades coupled with the rebound of crude oil to above $53 level during Asian time trading after its overnight fall of more than $1. It eased off initially to intra day low of 1980 but bounced back again to close at 1998 level before lunch. The stable external vege oil market had also provided some support to the CPO market. eCBOT soy oil turned positive in late trading while Dalian palm ended higher. CPO prices traded in a tight range of 2010-1997 in the second session before some short covering activities emerged in late trading and pushed up Benchmark Jun09 to settle RM63 higher at 2035.

Breaking News-RTRS-Brazil soy exports strong on China demand - Abag

SAO PAULO, March 25 (Reuters) - Brazilian soybean exports remain at robust levels despite the international financial crisis, due to strong demand for imports of the oilseed from China, the world's largest importer of soy, the Brazilian Agribusiness Association Abag said Wednesday.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, March 25 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose in a late rally on Wednesday as unexpectedly strong housing and durable goods data fueled hopes the economy is finally on the mend, offsetting concerns the United States may struggle to fund
plans to pull the economy out of recession.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 89.84 points, or 1.17 percent, to 7,749.81. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> rose 7.76 points, or 0.96 percent, to 813.88. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> added 12.43 points, or 0.82 percent, to 1,528.95.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, March 25 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended more than 2 percent lower on Wednesday, weighed down by data showing domestic crude stocks rose to their highest level in more than 15 years.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude settled at $52.77 a barrel, down $1.21, or 2.24 percent, after trading from $51.86 to $54.18.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- May down 16 cents at $9.51 per bushel.

Profit-taking after rally early this week that was led by a farmers strike in Argentina. Lower crude oil also weighing on market.

U.S. Census Bureau to issue its February crush data on Thursday.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- May up 0.10 cent at 33.37 cents per lb. Lower crude oil and soy weigh on soyoil in addition to profit-taking pressure.

FCPO-JAKARTA, March 25 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures closed lower on Wednesday for the second consecutive day on further profit taking, although news of better-than-expected exports capped losses, traders said.

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped 8 ringgit, or 0.4 percent, to 1,972 ringgit ($543) per tonne.

Other traded months were mixed <0#KPO:>. Overall volume was 11,164 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, March 25 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks were mixed on Wednesday as doubts about the U.S. government's plan to rid banks of toxic debt emerged, dragging Singapore's stock market down from a 6-week high.

The Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> ended down 0.86 percent after a 2.5 percent gain on Tuesday.Malaysia's index <.KLSE>, the region's third best performer this year after Jakarta and Manila, ended with a 0.1 percent
rise.

Elsewhere in the region, Manila's stock index <.PSI> climbed 1.14 percent, and Vietnam <.VNI> edged up 2.6 percent, adding to Tuesday's 4 percent rise.

Trader's Comment: CPO futures ended marginally lower after a range trading

CPO futures ended marginally lower after a range trading. Benchmark Jun09 hovered between 1985-1955 level through out the day before it finally settled RM8 lower at 1972. Both private cargo surveyors released their own 1-25 Mar export data today, where ITS & SGS reported a decline of 9.2% and 5.6% respectively. Nevertheless, CPO prices did not react too much on these data as traders had been expecting a much lower figure since yesterday. Overall market was uncertain today. ECBOT soy oil and Dalian palm fell more than 1% in Asian time trading. On the other hand, there were news saying that Indonesia decided to keep its 0% palm oil export tax in Apr and raising the CPO base export price to USD515 per tonne from USD480 per tonne in Mar, while Indian government had issued a formal order to abolish 20% import tax on crude soy oil.

DJI Daily: Forming base


Market momentum strengthen further following 7800 mark tested at intra-day basis. Looks market is trying harder to form a more concrete base. We now looking for the upside resistance at 8000. Downside support is adjusted to 7300-7200.

KLSE Daily: Market is firming up


We maintain our view sideways to upside potential in near term market. Resistance and support is at 900 and 870-868 level respectively.

FKLI Daily: May challenge 892-900


Market maintained its upside move and looks may want to challenge upside resistance at 892-900 level. Downside support is pegged at 870-865.

FCPO Daily: Correction mode may continue


Market retreated in tight range manner. Correction mode looks may continue in near term. Upside resistance is stood at 2051-2058. While, downside support remained at 1950-1945 followed by 1900.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

RTRS-India issues order to scrap crude soyoil import tax

NEW DELHI, March 25 - The Indian government has issued a formal order to abolish a 20 percent import tax on crude soyoil, a senior government official said on Wednesday.
"Orders have been issued and a notification on the official website should be uploaded anytime," the official at the Central Board of Excise and Customs said, confirming a report in the Hindu Business Line newspaper.
Trade Secretary G.K. Pillai said last week the government had cut the import duty on crude soyoil to keep domestic prices stable.
Imports of crude palm oil are not taxed, while that of refined vegetable oils attract a duty of 7.5 percent.

RTRS-Indonesia keeps April palm oil export tax at zero

JAKARTA, March 25 - Indonesia kept its zero percent palm oil export tax in April, while raising the crude palm oil base export price to $515 per tonne from $480 a tonne in March, a trade ministry official said on Wednesday.

Breaking News-RTRS-India must retain import tax on crude soyoil-trade

NEW DELHI, March 24 (Reuters) - Indian vegetable oil producers have urged the government to retain a 20 percent import tax on crude soyoil, saying a proposed cut would hurt farmers and was causing confusion in the market.

Breaking News-RTRS-U.S. soyoil sales to India may rise -Oil World

HAMBURG, March 24 (Reuters) - U.S. soyoil sales to India could rise following the Indian government's decision to cut soyoil import duties as rival exporters are tied up with biofuel production, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday

Breaking News-RTRS-U.S. farmers raise price targets as market rallies

CHICAGO, March 23 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers are raising their price targets to sell corn and soybeans in a sign of optimism amid a resurgent grain market fueled by sharp gains on Wall Street and farmer unrest in Argentina, a major competitor in the export market.
U.S. farmers are now setting their sights on selling soybeans for $10 per bushel and corn at $4.25, up from $9 and $4 last week, bolstered by corn hitting an eight-week high and soybeans touching a five-week top at the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday.

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures ended below 2000 level on weak export rumors.

Palm oil futures ended below 2000 level on weak export rumors. The weakness shown in eCBOT soy oil and Dalian palm during the early trading had given traders an excuse to book their overnight profit. This led Benchmark Jun09 to open RM25 lower at 2002. It was initially well supported as it immediately bounced to intra day high of 2028 and closed at 2021 before lunch. However, market talk that export figures which will be released tomorrow may decline to around 875k tonnes level (ITS put 1-20Feb export at 1,000,678 tonnes) had triggered some aggressive selling activities after second session resumed. Benchmark Jun09 slid to intra day low of 1978 before it finally settled RM50 lower at 1980.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, March 24 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks slid on Tuesday as investors paused to reassess the likely success of the government's latest plans to clean up bank balance sheets and revive the financial system, a day after initial euphoria over
the plan drove huge gains.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 115.65 points, or 1.49 percent, at 7,660.21. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 16.59 points, or 2.02 percent, at 806.33. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 37.43 points, or
2.41 percent, at 1,518.34.

NYMEX-
NEW YORK, March 24 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell back in post-settlement trading on Tuesday after industry group American Petroleum Institute said domestic crude stocks last week rose much more than analysts had forecast.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude at 4:55 p.m. EDT (2055 GMT), was down 42 cents, or 0.78 percent, at $53.38 a barrel. It had settled up 18 cents, or 0.33 percent, at $53.98, the highest settlement since Nov. 28 when it closed at $54.43. It traded from $52.45 to $54.20, a fresh intraday high for 2009 and the highest since $54.62 was struck on Dec. 1.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May up 11-1/2 cents at $9.67 per bushel.

Nearbys supported by Argentine farmer strike that is shifting soy export business to the United States and away from that South American country. Backs pressured by falling crude and Dow.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- May up 0.17 cent per lb at 33.27 cents per lb. Gains in soy supportive in addition to commercial buying.

FCPO
-JAKARTA, March 24 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures dropped 2.5 percent on Tuesday amid fears that a fall in exports might have steepened in the first 25 days of March on weak demand, traders said.

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped 50 ringgit to 1,980 ringgit ($547) per tonne.

Other traded months were lower, except for November which rose 0.6 percent. <0#KPO:>. Overall volume was 12,465 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, March 24 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock
markets rose on Tuesday, boosted by Washington's plan to clear the banking system of toxic assets, which spurred Wall Street's biggest gain since late October.

Singapore's stock index <.FTSTI> ended up 2.5 percent after touching a six-week high, adding to Monday's 4.2 percent surge. Indonesia's index <.JKSE> climbed 2.09 percent, touching its highest level in almost three months

Malaysian shares <.KLSE> drifted 0.04 percent lower, ending a five-day rally as investors dumped Sime Darby , down almost 1 percent after a drop in palm oil prices.

DJI Daily: Tough resistance at 7800-8000


Market is making an effort to test the tough resistance at 7800-8000. However, more strength is needed to maintain the current posture. We maintain the upside resistance at 7800-8000. Downside support is remain at 7100-7000.

KLSE Daily: Maintain sideways to upside bias posture


Market maintain its sideways to upside bias posture. As for now, resistance is at 900. While, downside support is stood at 870-868.

FKLI Daily: Sideways to higher move remain intact


Immediate daily technical landscape remains positive despite a negative close. Thus, we maintain our view sideways to higher move in near term market. We are now looking for the resistance at 900. Support is pegged at 870-865.

FCPO Daily: Bull taking a breathe


Market fully covered the downside gap left over at 2002-1985 to close in negative territory. Bull took a breathe after two days sharp rise and it views as a healthy correction in order for a longer lasting rally. Upside resistance remained at 2058 followed by 2100-2150. While, downside support is pegged at 1950-1945 followed by 1900.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Breaking News-RTRS-Argentine farmers strike against government soy tax

BUENOS AIRES, March 23 (Reuters) - Argentine farmers refused to sell their grains and livestock on Monday in a commercial strike aimed at pressuring the government and Congress to lower export taxes on soy, the country's top crop.
Farmers are angry over the government's refusal to reduce soy levies, even though global prices for the oilseed have slid and a drought has cut production. The battle over soy taxes first flared one year ago, and it has escalated ahead of mid-term congressional elections.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, March 23 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks surged around 7 percent on Monday after the Obama administration detailed a plan to purge toxic assets from bank balance sheets, fueling optimism about a revival in bank lending and driving double-digit gains in financial shares.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> jumped 497.48 points, or 6.84 percent, to 7,775.86 and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> surged 54.38 points, or 7.08 percent, to 822.92. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> spiked 98.50 points, or 6.76 percent, to 1,555.77.

An unexpected rise in housing sales, seen as a key factor in spurring an economic recovery, also boosted sentiment. Data showed the pace of sales of existing homes in the United States rose 5.1 percent in February, the biggest increase since July 2003.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, March 23 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures rose more than 3 percent on Monday, as Wall Street and global stock markets rallied on a U.S. plan to buy up distressed assets to tidy up bank balance sheets.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude settled up $1.73, or 3.32 percent, at $53.80 a barrel, trading from $51.62 to $54.05, highest since $54.62 was struck on Dec. 1, 2008.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May up 3-1/2 cents at $9.55-1/2 a bushel.

Ended firm but well below the day's five-week high with late pressure from farmer selling. But, ended firm on concerns over slow exports from Argentina as tensions mount between farmers and government.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- May up 0.85 cent at 33.10 cents per lb.

Following soybeans with higher equities supportive. But market well below the day's highs on a late sell-off.

FCPO-JAKARTA, March 23 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures rose 2.3 percent to their highest close in nearly six months on the back of fund buying, with stronger crude oil and soy prices weighing on sentiment, traders said.

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 45 ringgit to 2,030 ringgit ($558) per tonne, the first time it closed above 2,000 ringgit since September. The previous high was 2,090 ringgit set on Sept. 30.

The benchmark contract briefly hit an intraday high of 2,051 ringgit, a level unseen since Jan. 8.

Other traded months rose between 30 and 70 ringgit. Overall volume was 17,506 lots of 25 tonnes each versus the usual 10,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, March 23 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock
markets rose to multi-week highs on Monday, as Washington's plan to rid U.S. banks of toxic assets bolstered banking shares across the region.

Southeast Asia's largest bank, DBS Group rose 3.2 percent, while Malaysia's largest lender, Maybank , surged 5 percent, and Indonesia's Bank Mandiri Tbk jumped 10.8 percent.

Singapore's benchmark Straits Time Index <.FTSTI> closed up 4.21 percent at its highest closing level since Feb. 16, while Thailand's main SET index <.SETI> ended up nearly two percent, reaching a 4-week high.

Indonesia's main stock index <.JKSE> rose 3.36 percent to a 10-week closing high, while Malaysia's main stock index <.KLSE> rose for the fifth consecutive day, adding 2.51 percent to a three-week high.

DJI Daily: DJI soared


A triple digit up of more than 6 per cent had helped to neutralise the immediate technical outlook. However, more effort is needed to breakout from the resistance of 7800-8000 in order to have a stable momentum. Downside support is pegged at 7100-7000.

KLSE Daily: Gaining ground


Market gaining ground with a long white candle printed had turned the immediate technical landscape looks positive. As for now, resistance is at 883-888. While, downside support is stood at 856-857 (gap left over on 23/3/2009).

FKLI Daily: Eyeing 900 mark


A long white candle printed had added strength to the market momentum. Resistance at 875-880 had been violated, thus market likely to move sideways to higher in near term. We now looking for the resistance at 886-888.5 (left over gap since 2/3/2009) followed by 9000. Support is pegged at 861.5-860.5 (gap left over on 23/3/2009).

FCPO Daily: 2000 mark looks firm!


Market strengthened further as prices managed to stay firm above 2000 mark. Market looks has slowly built up its concrete base to move higher in near term. Upside resistance is stood at 2058 followed by 2100-2150. While, downside support is pegged at 2002-1985 (gap left over on 23/3/2009).

Monday, March 23, 2009

Trader's Comment: CPO futures rallied to 10 week high but ended off its high on profit taking.

CPO futures rallied to 10 week high but ended off its high on profit taking. Benchmark Jun09 surged to intraday high of 2051 in the afternoon session before some intraday profit taking activities emerged and sent prices to ease off slightly before it settled RM45 higher at 2030. Global commodity prices including vege oil market had been rising steadily due to continuous weakening of the US dollar. eCBOT soy oil and Dalian palm also rallied strongly since early Asian time trading. This led Benchmark Jun09 to jump immediately above 2000 during opening bell to open RM25 higher at 2010 and was well supported at that level through out the day. The bullish sentiment in CPO market was also enhanced by trader’s expectations that palm oil stock may continue to decline this month despite lower export recently reported by private cargo surveyors.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 2-Argentina gives provinces a share of soy taxes

BUENOS AIRES, March 19 (Reuters) - Argentina's president unveiled a plan on Thursday to share soy export tax revenue with provincial governments, in what farmers called a ploy to broaden support for a levy they despise.
Center-left President Cristina Fernandez said 30 percent of soy tax proceeds would go to the provinces, estimating the annual sum at $1.78 billion. This would boost provincial income from shared revenue by 11 percent, she added.
But farm leaders who are lobbying Congress for lower soy export taxes rejected the measure, raising the specter of fresh protests as part of a year-long standoff over government policy.

Breaking News-RTRS-Soyoil may outpace palm on India import tax cut-Mistry

KUALA LUMPUR, March 20 (Reuters) - India, a top vegetable oil importer, may see prices of imported soyoil keep their premium over rival palm oil due to increased demand after a cut in soyoil import duties, a leading analyst said on Thursday.
Dorab Mistry, head of vegetable oil purchasing with Indian conglomerate Godrej International, said the world's second-largest consumer of vegetable oil after China may import up to 1.5 million tonnes of soyoil from Nov 2008 till Oct 2009.
Soyoil imports were originally estimated by traders to be about 1.4 million tonnes for the period.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Friday, as long-standing worries about the health of the banking system resurfaced and a brokerage said American Express may post yearly losses and cut its dividend.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 108.01 points, or 1.46 percent, to 7,292.79. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> fell 15.56 points, or 1.98 percent, to 768.48. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> lost 31.51 points, or 2.12 percent, to 1,451.97.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures slipped on Friday, after seesawing as the front-month April contract went to expiration and following crude oil's strong rally the previous session.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, expiring April crude fell 55 cents, or 1.07 percent, to settle at $51.06 a barrel, trading from $50.30 to $52.13, just below Thursday's $52.25 high, which was a 2009 front-month intraday peak.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- May up 11-1/2 cents per bushel at $9.52 per bushel. Support from conflict between Argentine government and farmers over government's export tax on soy and on news China bought more soy from the U.S.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- May up 0.36 cent per lb at 32.25 cents per lb. Following soy with gains limited a bit of a rebound for dollar after its plunge at mid-week.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, March 20 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures rose 3.9 percent on Friday as crude oil's surge in the previous session sent a flood of buyers in through global vegetable oil markets from China to the United States.

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 74 ringgit to 1,985 ringgit ($543.8) per tonne, a level unseen since March 11.

Other traded months rose between 52 and 110 ringgit. Overall volumes more than doubled to 24,509 lots of 25 tonnes each versus the usual 10,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, March 20 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets
edged higher on Friday, with rises in oil prices driving gains in energy-related firms such as Keppel Corp and PTT PCL , sending Singapore and Thailand to three-week highs.

Singapore's benchmark Straits Time Index <.FTSTI> rose 0.76 percent to its highest close since Feb. 26 due to demand for energy-related stocks and some final-hour buying of major banks.

Indonesia's main stock index <.JKSE> rose 1.44 percent and earlier touched its highest since Jan. 19.

Malaysia's main stock index <.KLSE> was in the red in morning trade but turned round to climb 0.54 percent to a two-week closing high.

Weekly DJI: Looking for a base support


Market is searching for a base support to cushion from the current weak technical landscape. Immediate support is pegged at 6500-6400. While, upside resistance is stood at 7800-8000.

Weekly KLSE: Holding ground


Market was holding ground and likely to continue its sideways move in near term. As for now, resistance is at 867-873. While, downside support is stood at 838-835.

Weekly FKLI: Stuck at sideways


Sideways move likely to extend in near term as nothing much changes on the technical outlook. We put the resistance and support at 875-880 and 833-835 level respectively.

Weekly FCPO: Eyeing 2000-2058


Market gaining ground following prices close at weekly high. Market looks had found base around 1828-1840 and may continue to move sideways to higher in near term. Upside resistance is stood at 2000-2058.

Friday, March 20, 2009

Trader's Comment: CPO futures extended yesterday’s gains to end generally higher on pre-weekend covering.

CPO futures extended yesterday’s gains to end generally higher on pre-weekend covering. Prices rose steadily through out most of the sessions despite weakness in export data. Strong external market had provided tremendous supportive sentiment to the local CPO market, overshadowed the weak export data. Both eCBOT soy oil and Dalian palm had been edging up more than 1% today, while Asian time NYMEX crude oil holding steadily above $51 level after its overnight strong rally that also led Benchmark Jun09 to open RM16 higher at 1927 during its early morning trade. Both private cargo surveyor ITS & SGS had reported a decline of 8.9% and 5.6% respectively on the 1-20 Mar export data. Pre-weekend covering had also enhance the buying activities and sent Benchmark Jun09 to settle at intra day high of 1985.

Breaking News-RTRS-Ship delays in offloading palm cargoes in China -trade

KUALA LUMPUR, March 20 (Reuters) - Tankers carrying palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia face delays of up to a month in discharging their cargoes at destination ports, especially in Southern China, due to oversupply, Malaysian traders said on Friday.
Top palm producers Indonesia and Malaysia ship about 100,000 tonnes of palm oil products each week to China, the world's largest consumer of vegetable oils, historical data shows. The latest delay is for a 54,000-tonne tanker from Indonesia chartered by a Singaporean based palm producer, which may have to wait for two weeks or more to offload consignments of crude palm oil and refined palm olein, a top Malaysian trader said.

Breaking News-RTRS-Malaysia's IOI sees palm oil at 2,000 rgt/t

KUALA LUMPUR, March 20 (Reuters) - Malaysia's IOI Corp , the world's third-largest listed palm oil producer, said the price of crude palm oil could rise 20 percent due to falling domestic stockpiles.
"We see prices trading within a range of 2,000 ringgit to 2,300 ringgit, averaging about 2,000 ringgit a tonne. This should be the fair value of palm oil for the time being," said IOI Group Executive Chairman Lee Shin Cheng, without providing a timeframe for the forecast.

Breaking News-RTRS-China soy imports stay high, corn market strong-survey

BEIJING, March 19 (Reuters) - China's soybean imports will stay high in the coming weeks as imports are still attractive compared with domestic soybeans, according to an official survey.
The outlook for corn has turned bullish, reflecting tighter supplies, the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) said in a report on Thursday.
Chinese crushers have increased purchases of near-month soy cargoes on fears of further price rises with South Amerca expecting a lower harvest, the report said.
The soyoil market ticked up but stayed bearish due to ample supplies. China raised soyoil imports in March and crushers were operating at a higher capacity, which has increased supplies to the market, the report said.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, March 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Thursday on concerns that the Federal Reserve's latest efforts to stem the U.S. recession are too costly and untested, prompting investors to book profits on bank shares after the recent sharp rally.

Investors were unsettled by the implications of the Fed's action to pump another $1 trillion into the financial system and a plan to expand its consumer and small business lending program, fearing the moves could stir up inflation in the long term.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 85.78 points, or 1.15 percent, to 7,400.80. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> lost 10.31 points, or 1.30 percent, to 784.04. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> shed 7.74 points, or 0.52 percent, to 1,483.48.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, March 19 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures settled above $50 on Thursday for the first time in almost four months after the dollar dropped sharply on the U.S. Federal Reserve plan to pump $1 trillion into the recession-hit economy.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange April crude settled up $3.47, or 7.21 percent, at $51.61 a barrel, trading from $48.78 to $52.25. It was the highest settlement since Nov. 28, 2008's $54.43 close and the intraday high was the highest
price since $54.62 on Dec. 1, 2008.

NYMEX
May crude settled up $3.14, or 6.42 percent, at $52.04 a barrel, narrowing the contango with April crude to 43 cents from 76 cents at the close on Wednesday.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May up 25-1/2 cents at $9.40-1/2 per bushel. Soy rallies as dollar index <.DXY> plunges 3 percent on Wednesday.

CBOT-SOYOIL - May up 0.97 cent per lb at 31.89 cents per lb. Led higher by soybeans and soaring crude as Fed stimulus move pushes the dollar lower and makes U.S. commodities cheaper for foreign buyers.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, March 19 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures inched higher on Thursday as oil markets surged but top vegetable oil buyer India cutting import duties on rival soyoil dented some sentiment.

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled up 6 ringgit at 1,911 ringgit ($523.3) per tonne after rising as high as 1,945 ringgit.

Other traded months mostly fell except for the July contract, which rose 22 ringgit <0#KPO:>. Overall volumes doubled to 21,334 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, March 19 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stocks
gained on Thursday, cheered by moves to revive the U.S. economy, with bank shares helping extend gains in Singapore for a second day and Malaysia hitting its highest in more than a week.

Singapore's index <.FTSTI> added 0.6 percent, coming off an early 1.4 percent rise to a near three-week high. In Kuala Lumpur, the benchmark index <.KLSE> gained 0.5
percent, with Maybank climbing 4.4 percent.

DJI Daily: retreated


Market retreated after the recent rebound. We maintain the upside resistance and downside support at 7800-8000 and 7100-7000 level respectively.

KLSE Daily: holding ground


Market may continue to move sideways to higher in near term with immediate resistance remains at 855-858 followed by 863. Downside support is pegged at 840-835.

FKLI Daily: sideways to bias upside potential


Market maintain its sideways to bias little upside potential posture as 850 level stayed firm. We now looking for the resistance at 860-865. Downside support is pegged at 840-830 level.

FCPO Daily: 1900 mark defended well


Market tested 1900-1890 in intra-day basis yet 1900 manage to defend well. Market may extend its sideways move in near term. We now looking for the immediate downside support at 1890 followed by 1840-1830. While, upside resistance remain at 1940-1950 followed by 1970-2000.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures surrendered most of its earlier gains to end mix

Palm oil futures surrendered most of its earlier gains to end mix on India’s moves to cut import duty on soy oil. Benchmark Jun09 immediately surged to intra day high of 1945 after opened RM20 higher at 1925 tracking the strong rebound of NYMEX crude oil and eCBOT soy oil during their early trading in Asian time. It then hovered between 1935-1925 until it closed at 1927 before lunch time. However, market sentiment in afternoon session began to change after the released of news stating that India government is doing away with custom duty on soy oil to narrow its premium over imported palm oil. CPO prices started to fall and hit intra day low of 1893 before it bounced back slightly again to settle RM6 higher at 1911. total daily volume stood at 21,334 contracts changed hands.

Breaking News-India’s scapped import duty on soya oil to reduce premium over palm oil

NEW DELHI: The government is doing away with Customs duty on soya oil to narrow its premium over imported palm oil, the world’s cheapest cooking oil and India’s favourite fat, in a highly price-conscious market. Eight out of 10 cans of imported vegetable oil in India now contain palm oil.

A notification will be issued shortly by the finance ministry, said an official who did not wish to be named.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-Argentine farmers to press Congress on export taxes

BUENOS AIRES, March 17 (Reuters) - Argentine farmers said they will pressure Congress this week to lower export taxes after Tuesday's talks with the government did little to break a political deadlock that has shaken grains markets.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, March 18 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rallied on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve surprised Wall Street when it said it will buy long-term Treasury bonds for the first time in four decades in an effort to revive the recession-hit
economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 90.88 points, or 1.23 percent, to 7,486.58. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> advanced 16.23 points, or 2.09 percent, to 794.35. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> rose 29.11 points, or 1.99 percent, to 1,491.22.

The Fed said it will buy up to $300 billion worth of longer-term U.S. government debt over the next six months and expand purchases of mortgage-related debt to help ease credit market conditions in its latest action to lower borrowing costs.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, March 18 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures settled lower, but pared losses and turned positive after the close on Wednesday when the U.S. Federal Reserve said it was planning to buy a big chunk of long-dated Treasury securities,
sending the dollar sharply lower.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange settled down $1.02 at $48.14 a barrel. It traded to a low of $46.92 but moved into positive territory and hit a high of $49.87, following the Fed's announcement. The April crude oil contract expires on Friday.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May up 2 cents per bushel at $9.15 per bushel.

Tight soy stocks and firm cash lifting prices in addition to concern about Argentine soy exports amid an ongoing conflict between farmers and government. Soy/corn spreading also supportive.

CBOT-SOYOIL - May down 0.39 cent per lb at 30.92 cents per lb. Pressured by lower crude oil.

FCPO
-KUALA LUMPUR, March 18 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures fell 0.9 percent on Wednesday as players booked profits on fears demand would not flow in at above current price levels.

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled down 17 ringgit to 1,905 ringgit ($517.6) per tonne after going as high as 1,948 ringgit.

Other traded months were marginally lower <0#KPO:>. Overall volumes stood at 13,530 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, March 18 (Reuters) - Singapore shares <.FTSTI> rose
more than 1 percent as Southeast Asian stocks advanced on Wednesday, led by banks such as DBS Group , Public Bank , Bangkok Bank and Bank Mandiri .

The Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> closed 1.1 percent higher, Malaysia's index <.KLSE>, the region's second best performer this year after Jakarta, rose for a second day to close up 0.7 percent at a 1-week high. Thailand's SET index <.SETI> closed up 0.9 percent and Indonesia's index <.JKSE> ended 0.8 percent higher.

DJI Daily: strengthen further


Market strengthened further with another closing in positive territory and violated the immediate resistance at 7400-7450. Upside resistance is now at 7800-8000. While, support is stood at 7100-7000.

KLSE Daily: potential to move sideways to higher


Immediate daily technical outlook looks better despite market touch and go at 850 level in intra-day basis. Market is potentially to move sideways to higher in near term with immediate resistance stood at 855-858 followed by 863. Downside support is pegged at 840-835.

FKLI Daily: improving...


Market improved as prices stayed firm at 850 level. We believe more short covering activities may continue and market may move sideways to bias little upside potential in near term. We maintain the upside resistance at 856-858 followed by 860-865. Downside support is pegged at 833-830 level.

FCPO Daily: looks little tiring


Market retreated to close at day low yet above 1900 mark. Market looks little exhausted after few attempts failed to break through 2000 mark convincingly.
Immediate daily technical landscape remains neutral in sideways mode. We continue to look for the immediate downside support at 1900-1890 followed by 1840-1830. While, upside resistance is at 1940-1950 followed by 1970-2000.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Trader's Comment: CPO futures remained in ranging mode in negative territory.

CPO futures remained in ranging mode in negative territory. Overnight CBOT soy oil and NYMEX crude oil rallied strongly led Benchmark Jun09 to hit intra day high at 1948 after opened RM10 higher at 1932. However, due to lack of follow through buying, prices then gradually easing off through out the day. Intra day long liquidation in late afternoon session sent Benchmark Jun09 continue to slide further and settled at intra day low at 1905. Market was rather quiet today as players waiting for fresh leads from the export data which is scheduled to release this Friday. Generally, the overall market was still moving sideways within the broad range of 1800-2000.

Breaking News-RTRS-Mexico tariffs will avoid corn, beans, wheat, rice

MEXICO CITY, March 16 (Reuters) - Mexico will not include rice, corn, beans or wheat among imports from the United States facing increased tariffs in a dispute over trucking, a spokesman for the Mexican economy ministry told Reuters on Monday.
"It won't be any of these products because Mexicans are sensitive to them," the spokesman said.
Mexico's government will likely announce on Wednesday what 90 industrial and agriculture goods will face higher tariffs in reprisal for U.S. cancellation of a pilot cross-border trucking program, the spokesman said.

Breaking News-RTRS-EU biodiesel import duty helps Argentina-Oil World

HAMBURG, March 17 (Reuters) - The European Union's decision to impose heavy import duties on U.S. biodiesel will switch EU buying to Argentina, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday.
On March 12, the EU said it would impose punitive duties on imports of biodiesel from the United States while an investigation is held into allegations the U.S. green fuel is sold cheaply in Europe with the help of subsidies. [ID:nNLC572079]
"The EU will receive much less biodiesel from the U.S. following the introduction of countervailing duties, but more from Argentina," Oil World said.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, March 17 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks surged on Tuesday as an unexpected leap in housing starts pushed Home Depot and other retailers higher while bullish comments from a broker on Cisco Systems helped technology shares rebound.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 178.73 points, or 2.48 percent, to 7,395.70. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> rose 24.23 points, or 3.21 percent, to 778.12. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> jumped 58.09 points, or 4.14 percent, to 1,462.11.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, March 17 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures settled at their highest level since December, supported by a surge in heating oil and gasoline futures and on options expiration play for the front-month April crude contract.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, April crude settled up $1.81, or 3.82 percent, at $49.16, a barrel, the highest settlement since Dec. 1, 2008's close at $49.28. It traded from $46.53 to $49.82, the highest intraday price since this year's high of $50.47 was reached on Jan. 6.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- May up 1 cent per bushel at $9.12 per bushel. Tight soy stocks, firm cash and slow farmer selling boosting prices.

Argentine government and farmer conflict leading to potential for increased exports of U.S. soy.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- May up 0.28 cent at 31.14 cents per lb. Spillover support from higher soy futures and crude oil.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, March 17 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures climbed 1.1 percent on Tuesday, supported by sturdier crude and soyoil markets although expectations of slower exports in the second half of March weighed on sentiment.

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended up 20 ringgit to 1,922 ringgit ($523.8) after going as high as 1,940 ringgit.

Other traded months rose between 5 and 37 ringgit <0#KPO:>. Overall volumes jumped to 15,564 lots of 25 tonnes each from the usual 10,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, March 17 (Reuters) - Singapore shares <.FTSTI> dropped more than 1 percent on Tuesday, ending two days of gains, with bank shares falling back as investors turned cautious over the outlook for the U.S. economy.

Thailand's SET index <.SETI> dipped 0.54 percent, pulled down by a 1.95 percent fall in the biggest bank, Bangkok Bank , and Indonesia <.JKSE> eased 0.96 percent, weighed down by a 1.2 percent fall in state-run Bank Rakyat .

Bucking the trend, Malaysia's main stock index <.KLSE> edged up 0.12 percent, pushed up by index heavyweight palm planter Sime Darby , which rose 2.78 percent, and by IOI Corp , which gained 1.6 percent.

DJI Daily: pulled back after the recent sharp drop


Market pulled back after the recent drop for a healthy correction. However, the overall daily technical landscape remains cautious and we are now looking for the downside support at 6900-6800 followed by the recent low at 6469. For upside, resistance is a 7400-7450 followed by 7700-7800.

KLSE Daily: Bear took a little breathe


Bear took a little breathe and looks market may stick to its sideways move in near term. We now look for the upside resistance at 850. While, downside support is at 835.

FKLI Daily: struggle to survive


Market struggles to defend above 830 levels. Market looks may move sideways in near term with upside resistance and downside support is pegged at 856-858 and 833.5 level respectively.

FCPO Daily: bias upside potential


Market maintained bias upside potential with immediate support stood at 1900-1890 followed by 1840-1830. While, upside resistance is at 1970-2000.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Trader's Comment: CPO futures prices ended generally higher

A good turn around from overnight NYMEX crude oil and rival soy oil futures in CBOT led CPO futures to start with positive tone and ended generally higher. Benchmark Jun09 initially opened with RM28 higher at 1930 and hit intra day high at 1940 for the lunch break. Market remained in steady mode through out the afternoon session, it drifted to intra day low at 1918 due to some intra day profit taking activities. Later it finally settled RM20 higher at 1922. Steady underlying cash market also providing the support to the FCPO.

Monday, March 16, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures ended lower on late selling amid crude oil weakness.

Palm oil futures ended lower on late selling amid crude oil weakness. New Benchmark Jun09 was initially well supported through out most of the session, following the released of unexpectedly good 1-15 Mar export data by both private cargo surveyor ITS & SGS which reported an increased of 16.2% and 19.8% respectively. It hovered around previous settlement price level in the morning session. The supportive sentiment spilled over into second session which sent Benchmark Jun09 to hit intra day high at 1948. However, the bullish sentiment was unable to last till the end of trading day. The effect of crude oil tumbling more than 4% to $44 level during Asian time trading outweighed the supporting factor in CPO market. Dalian palm and eCBOT soy oil also turned negative in late trading hour. The “bear” finally prevailed and saw Benchmark Jun09 slid down to settle at intra day low of 1902.

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 13 - U.S. stocks scored their best week since November on Friday as a broker upgraded Merck & Co, saying its deal to buy a rival was shrewd, and
Citigroup said it did not need any more government aid.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 53.92 points, or 0.75 percent, to 7,223.98. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 5.81 points, or 0.77 percent, to 756.55. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 5.40 points, or 0.38 percent, to 1,431.50.

NYMEX
- NEW YORK, March 13 - U.S. crude futures fell back in choppy trading on Friday on weak demand forecasts from OPEC and the International Energy Agency amid caution ahead of a possible output cut when the producers' group meets Sunday.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, April crude settled down 78 cents, or 1.66 percent, at $46.25 a barrel, trading from $45.77 to $48.14. For the week, prices are down 73 cents, or 1.6 percent.

CBOT - SOYBEANS - March expired down 16-1/2 at $8.82-1/2 per bushel; May down 5-1/2 at $8.76-1/2. Dives after Thursday's strong rally amid Informa's big U.S. soy planting forecast. March under added pressure as longs liquidate positions before midday expiration.

CBOT - SOYOIL - March expired down 0.31 cent at 29.80 cents per lb; May down 0.21 at 30.17. Following soy.

FCPO - JAKARTA, March 13 - Malaysian crude palm oil futures rose on Friday, recovering most of their 3 percent fall from a day earlier, helped by tightness in the physical market, traders said.

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 52 ringgit, or 2.7 percent, to 1,972 ringgit ($532) per tonne.

REGIONAL EQUITIES - BANGKOK, March 13 - Singapore shares surged 5.6 percent to a 2-week high on Friday, leading other Southeast Asian stock indices higher as an improving outlook for big U.S. banks boosted regional financial stocks.

Singapore's Straits Times Index closed at its highest level since Feb. 27, with DBS Group , United Overseas Bank and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp each up more than 7 percent.

Malaysia's index rose 0.6 percent after four days of falls. Thailand's SET Index jumped 2.4 percent, while Indonesia's market rose 1.3 percent to its highest level since Feb. 19.

Friday, March 13, 2009

Trade's Comment: Palm oil futures recovered from yesterday’s losses to end broadly higher

Palm oil futures recovered from yesterday’s losses to end broadly higher following strong overnight CBOT soy oil and NYMEX crude oil. Generally market was in recovery mode as players believed that there are some nearby tightness in underlying cash market. Speculative buying were also taking advantage of Jun09 contract which soon to become 3rd month contract on Monday which is trading on a good discount to current 3rd month May09 contract. Benchmark May09 climbed from intra day low of 1931 to 1983 in late afternoon session before it finally settled RM52 higher at 1972. 4th contract month Jun09 settled RM50 higher at 1930 after trading between 1895 to 1947.

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 12 - U.S. stocks rose for a third day on Thursday on relief that a ratings cut by S&P in General Electric was just one notch and that no further cuts

loomed, while retail sales data showed some stabilization in consumer spending.
The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 239.66 points, or 3.46 percent, to 7,170.06. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index jumped 29.38 points, or 4.07 percent, to 750.74. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 54.46 points, or 3.97 percent, to 1,426.10.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, March 12 - U.S. crude futures ended more than 11 percent higher on Thursday, rebounding from heavy losses in the previous session, as traders weighed a potential output cut when OPEC meets on Sunday.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, April crude settled up $4.70, or 11.1 percent, at $47.03 a barrel, trading from $42.51 to $47.22. It was the biggest one-day percentage gain since Feb. 19, when prices rose 14.04 percent. Prices fell 7.39 percent to $42.33 on Wednesday.

CBOT - SOYBEANS
- March up 24 cents at $8.99 a bushel, May up 20 at $8.82. Short-covering rebound spurred by crude rally, strength in Dow and bigger-than-expected weekly export figure issued by USDA.

CBOT - SOYOIL - March up 0.47 cent at 30.11 cents a lb; May up 0.47 at 30.38. Short covering after fund selling drove prices sharply lower on Wednesday. USDA big U.S. soyoil end stocks estimate issued Wednesday ignited the selling.

FCPO - JAKARTA, March 12 - Malaysian crude palm oil futures fell 3.0 percent to the lowest in nearly a week on Thursday after top industry analysts warned the price could slide to 1,500 ringgit, traders said.

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 60 ringgit, or 3.0 percent, to 1,920 ringgit ($521) per tonne, the lowest since March 6.

REGIONAL EQUITIES - BANGKOK, March 12 - Most Southeast Asian stock markets ended lower on Thursday, with Singapore and Indonesia falling back after two days of gains and Malaysia touching a three-month low, with financials leading the way down.

Singapore's index fell 0.8 percent, with lender United Overseas Bank losing 2.4 pecent, and Indonesia's index lost 0.3 percent, with state-controlled Bank Rakyat
sliding 3.7 percent.

Malaysia's benchmark index dropped 1.4 percent, touching its lowest since Dec. 10 at one point, with Maybank tumbling 6.5 percent and Public Bank 3.4 percent lower.

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures fell generally lower amid gloomy price outlook by top industry analysts.

Palm oil futures fell generally lower amid gloomy price outlook by top industry analysts. Benchmark May09 opened RM25 lower at 1955 following heavy losses in overnight CBOT soy oil and NYMEX crude oil. Initially it was well supported when prices bounced to intra day high of 1973 and close at 1960 before lunch break. However, the release of some pessimistic statement from the top 2 industry analysts during their presentation in today’s Price Outlook Conference saw CPO prices started to decline in the afternoon session. Both James Fry and Dorab Mistry had foreseen the possibility of CPO prices to test 1500 level in the second half of 2009. Benchmark May09 slides to intra day low of 1909 before it finally settled RM60 lower at 1920. External factors were mix as eCBOT soy oil inched higher while Dalian palm ended lower during Asian time trading.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

RTRS-Malaysian palm futures to weaken in H2 2009 -Mistry

KUALA LUMPUR, March 12 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures may come under pressure in the second half of 2009 on weaker soyoil prices as well as an uptick in output from August and slower shipments, a top industry analyst said on Thursday.
But for the moment, palm prices could cross 2,000 ringgit ($541.4) per tonne and test the 2,100 ringgit level in the next few weeks as stock levels fall in top producers Malaysia and Indonesia, said Dorab Mistry, whose views are closely followed by the market.
Mistry, head of vegetable oils trading with Indian conglomerate Godrej, said the price of palm oil had done well in recent months due to strong exports but this had eroded its competitive advantage over rival soyoil.

RTRS-Crude palm oil prices to rise slightly-Mielke

KUALA LUMPUR, March 12 (Reuters) - Crude palm oil prices will probably rise 6.7 percent to $640 per tonne, including cost, insurance and freight at Rotterdam in January to June, as global output of vegetable oils slows, a top industry analyst said on Thursday.
Thomas Mielke, head of German oilseeds research group Oilworld, said prices of RBD palm olein is will range around $670 a tonne CIF Rotterdam for the same period, but noted that the spreading economic downturn would limit palm oil's price rally.

RTRS-Global vegoil output slowing on weaker prices - Mielke

KUALA LUMPUR, March 12 (Reuters) - Global vegetable oil output is expected to slow this year on weaker commodity prices, said leading Industry analyst Thomas Mielke on Thursday.
Mielke, head of German oilseeds research group Oil World, earlier told Reuters that Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's top palm producers, will see only a small rise in output this year due to tree stress after months of good harvests and less fertiliser usage.

RTRS-Palm oil prices may fall to 1,500 ringgit -Fry

KUALA LUMPUR, March 12 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures may fall back to 1,500 ringgit, felled by slow demand and lower crude oil prices, a top industry analyst said on Thursday.
"We would be set for a soft landing, with BMD futures settling in the 1,400-1,500 ringgit range, that is on trend," James Fry, chairman of commodities consultancy LMC International, said.

RTRS-UPDATE 1-Malaysia's palm prices "not bad" -minister

KUALA LUMPUR, March 12 (Reuters) - Malaysia's palm oil industry, the world's second largest producer of the commodity, is comfortable with current prices, Commodities Minister Peter Chin said on Thursday.

Trader's Comment: 16-month low end stock triggered short covering to trade above 2000 level.

16-month low end stock triggered short covering to trade above 2000 level. Market was in the bullish mood in the early part of the afternoon session after the released of MPOB official Feb supply & demand data which prompted “shortish” covering activities and speculative buying sent Benchmark May09 rallied to hit intra day high at 2026. However, lack of follow through buying coupled with profit taking activities saw prices eased off and slides down to intra day low of 1976 before it settled RM15 lower at 1980. Earlier session was rather cautious and hovering between the narrow range of 2003-1985 level ahead of the release of MPOB data, and also 3 key speakers will only deliver their papers tomorrow at the 2009 Price Outlook Conference in Kuala Lumpur.

RTRS-China Feb soy imports up 62 pct on year

BEIJING, March 11 - China, the world's largest soy buyer, imported 3.27 million tonnes of the oilseed in February, a rise of 62 percent from the same month of 2008, according to Reuters calculation based on official Customs figures.

Imports in the first two months rose 15.1 percent to 6.29 million tonnes, figures from the General Administration of Customs showed.

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 11 - U.S. stocks rose for a second day on Wednesday after JP Morgan Chase's chief executive said his bank was profitable in January and February,
echoing comments by Citigroup's CEO a day earlier.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 3.91 points, or 0.06 percent, to 6,930.40. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 1.76 points, or 0.24 percent, to 721.36. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 13.36 points, or 0.98 percent, to 1,371.64.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, March 11 - U.S. crude futures ended more than 7 percent lower on Wednesday, down for a second day in a row after government data showed a modest though larger-than-expected inventory rise last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, April crude settled down $3.38, or 7.39 percent, at $42.33 a barrel, trading from $42.08, lowest since March 4's $41.04, to $46.04.

CBOT - SOYBEANS - March down 14 cents at $8.75 per bushel.
Weighed down by fund selling, late weakness in the Dow and falling crude oil.

CBOT - SOYOIL - March down 1.08 cents at 29.64 cents per lb.
Pressure from falling crude oil, late weakness in the Dow and by a big soyoil stocks number in USDA's supply/demand report.

FCPO
- JAKARTA, March 11 - Malaysian crude palm oil futures edged lower on Wednesday, coming off a fresh 9-week high as investors locked in profit amid concerns over the outlook for prices, traders said.

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 15 ringgit, or 0.8 percent, to 1,980 ringgit ($538) per tonne, after hitting a high of 2,026 ringgit.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
- BANGKOK, March 11 - Stock markets in Singapore and Indonesia rose for a second day on Wednesday after some positive news from the U.S. financial sector helped push up big-cap banks including Singapore's DBS and Indonesia's Bank Mandiri.

Hopes that Citigroup would deliver a first-quarterprofit sparked an improvement in investor confidence.

Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index rose 1.3 percent, earlier touching its highest in nearly a week, led by DBS Group, the region's biggest bank, which climbed 2.2 percent after a 4.7 percent gain on Tuesday.