RTRS - India may raise palm oil import duties again this yr -analyst

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 30 (Reuters) - India may raise import duties on edible oils such as palm oil and soyoil again this year, with the government looking to protect domestic oilseed farmers as inflation slows, leading industry analyst Dorab Mistry said.

India, the world's No.1 edible oil buyer, this month hiked import duties on crude imports to 2.5 percent from zero and lifted a six year freeze on the taxable value of cargoes to curb cheap imports from top palm suppliers Indonesia and Malaysia.

While India left refined edible oil import duties unchanged, the policy move on crude showed it was still wary on inflation that slowed last month to its lowest in three years, said Mistry, who closely tracks the country's oilseed sector.

"I expect the next step to be announced in the budget at the end of February," Mistry, head of trading with India's leading speciality chemicals group, Godrej Industries, told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday.

"The industry has requested import duty at 10 percent on unrefined oils and 17.5 percent on refined oils and I believe we shall get that level by end of March 2013 at the latest," he said.

New Delhi raising import taxes counters Malaysia's move to lower its crude export duty to reduce record palm oil stocks and helps to raise India's falling domestic oilseed price.

As a rule of thumb, India's soybean and rapeseed farmers need a minimum price of 35,000-38,000 rupees ($650-$710) a tonne to continue planting these crops, Mistry said. Current prices for soybeans are hovering at 32,400 rupees a tonne, according to industry data.

This spurs farmers to switch to other more lucrative crops such as corn, pulses and vegetables, setting the stage for India's government to raise import duties on crude oils to 20 percent and refined oils to 27.5 percent by August, Mistry added.

"Remember from August we shall have a torrent of sunflower oil available for export from Russia and Ukraine, and this oil will go to a discount to soya oil and will pressure prices all over the vegetable oil complex."

VERY HIGH PALM OIL STOCKS

India imports about half the 16 million to 17 million tonnes of edible oils it consumes every year, mostly palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia.

Mistry said that any further policy move by India would impact these two Southeast Asian countries where palm oil prices were very high at 2,400-2,500 ringgit ($790-$820) even though Malaysian stocks hit a record 2.6 million tonnes in December.

Mistry said these prices may not prompt much expansion in demand for the edible oil as palm oil output grows and competing soyoil supply jumps from May onwards.

"I do not expect Malaysian stocks to decline below 2 million tonnes in the foreseeable future," he said.

Malaysia's January palm oil stocks will be almost unchanged from December, with declines expected in February to April. By May, stocks will build again, Mistry said.

Indonesia, which does not publish stocks figures, has current inventories of about 5 million tonnes.

"Of these about 1 tonne is systemic stocks which are permanently required in view of the extended and poor logistics in Indonesia," Mistry said.

RTRS - China to raise soybean, soyoil and palm imports - Oil World

HAMBURG, Jan 29 (Reuters) - China is set to increase its soybean, soyoil and palm oil imports in the current 2012/13 season to meet demand created by the country’s continued economic growth, Hamburg-based oilseeds analyst Oil World said on Tuesday.

Soybean prices hit record highs in September 2012 after drought ravaged the U.S. crop, compounding supply shortages after poor Argentine and Brazilian harvests. However, huge South American crops are expected in early 2013, which may relieve pressure on world supplies created by China's rising appetite.

China's soybean imports in October 2012 to September 2013 will rise to 62 million tonnes from 59.2 in 2011/12 and only 50.3 million tonnes in 2009/10, Oil World forecast.

Soyoil imports in 2012/13 will rise to 1.55 million tonnes from 1.50 million tonnes in 2011/12, while 2012/13 palm oil imports will jump to 6.65 million tonnes from 5.95 million tonnes in 2011/12, it said.

However, the analyst added that China may have trouble buying all the soybeans it wants until the new harvests from South America become more widely available in the second quarter of 2013.

“Soybean imports may decline by 2 million tonnes to 12 million tonnes January to March 2013, as very little will be available from South America in this period,” it said.

“But for April to September 2013 we forecast a rise in Chinese imports to 35.9 million tonnes, versus 31 million tonnes, which must be covered largely by South American soybeans as U.S. export supplies will be depleted by then.”

Palm oil is expected to cover the bulk of edible oil import requirements, assuming that exporters are able to meet the stricter Chinese quality standards that took force on Jan. 1, Oil World said.

Imports of palm oil were boosted to a “spectacular” 960,000 tonnes in December 2012 from 669,000 tonnes in December 2011 as importers built up stocks ahead of the new quality regulations, it said.

Traders said on Jan. 24 that Chinese authorities have ruled that Malaysian palm oil shipments were reaching the new quality standards.

RTRS - South American soybean crop delay would raise prices-Oil World

HAMBURG, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Soybean harvest delays or transport problems in South America may shift business back to the United States in the next one to three months, pushing up U.S. soybean futures, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said.

The global soybean market is counting on huge South American crops in early 2013 to relieve tight world supplies after a drought in the United States in 2012, and there is intense concern about any delays or weather damage to harvests in Brazil and Argentina.

“If insufficient South American exports in February and March shift back some business to U.S. origin, it could have an explosive impact on U.S. soybean futures in the May contract,” Oil World said on Tuesday.

“Although the South American crops are record high - at least on paper - it is questionable whether sufficient quantities can be physically moved in time, considering the insufficient facilities for inland transportation and at the ports,” Oil World said.

Brazil is forecast to overtake the United States as the number one exporter and producer of soybeans this season, with a 30 percent increase in its soybean crop, but the country has added no new capacity to its ports.

“The current harvest delays in Brazil are further complicating the situation,” the firm said.

Brazilian farmers have already started harvesting this year’s soybean crop, which is set to reach a record 85 million tonnes.

But rain has delayed some early Brazilian harvesting, and export supplies arriving at Brazilian ports are smaller than expected, leading to an increasing number of ships waiting to load, Oil World said.

Argentine farmers have sold only an estimated 10 percent of their expected 2013 crop so far, less than half of they sold in early 2012, because of fears about exchange rate movements, it said.

“The transition from U.S. to South American (export) supplies could turn out more difficult than expected,” Oil World said.

Oil World warned on Monday that U.S. soybean supplies will be tight in early 2013 after its poor crop and large export sales.

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Stock markets around the world rose and the dollar fell to a 14-month low against the euro on Tuesday amid rising risk appetite as the Federal Reserve began a two-day policy meeting in which it is expected to maintain its easy monetary policy.

A report that showed U.S. single-family home prices rose in November, building on a string of gains that point to a housing market that is on the mend, added to investor optimism on economic growth.

Still, investors were cautious about making big bets, given mixed U.S. economic data, the run-up in stocks in recent weeks and risk in the form of a slew of economic reports for the rest of the week, as well as the Fed meeting.

Markets were initially weaker on a report showing U.S. consumer confidence dropped in January to its lowest in more than a year. But that same data kept alive expectations the Fed will maintain its ultra-easy monetary policy for the foreseeable future.

"There is a serious split between the attitudes of consumers and the attitudes of the markets," said Joseph Trevisani, chief market strategist at WorldWideMarkets, in Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey, after the consumer confidence data. "This may make for a weaker dollar as it makes it less likely the Fed will contemplate an early removal of QE," referring to the central bank's debt-buying program called quantitative easing.

The euro extended gains versus the dollar, breaking above key resistance to hit a 14-month high It last traded at $1.3491.

STOCKS GAIN

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 72.49 points, or 0.52 percent, at 13,954.42. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 7.66 points, or 0.51 percent, at 1,507.84. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 0.64 points, or 0.02 percent, at 3,153.66.

"A move like this in one month is extraordinary, and keeping the gains going will depend on concrete news like earnings and data that show the economy is getting better," said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia. "We haven't seen enough of that to make people jump in after the rally we've had."

European stocks scaled two-year highs, boosted by miners, as optimism about economic recovery gained momentum following the encouraging U.S. home price data and comments on growth in top metals consumer China.

U.S. DEBT

In the U.S. Treasury debt market, benchmark 10-year yields proved unable to hold above the key 2 percent level touched on Monday, with investors looking ahead to a debt auction later in the day, as well as the Fed meeting.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was down 9/32, the yield at 1.9955 percent.

Debt prices had earlier reversed losses to advance after the U.S. consumer confidence data.

Investors now await the outcome of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The Fed is not expected to change its stance after deciding only in December to loosen conditions further. However, investors are watching to see if changes in the membership of the policy-setting committee for 2013 could signal a shift in the future.

Gold snapped a four-day losing streak to rise 0.5 percent to around $1,662.60 an ounce, but any hint that the Fed is considering an end to its loose monetary policy would probably send the precious metal down.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, Jan 29 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose more than 1 percent on Tuesday, after strong U.S. housing market data bolstered confidence that economic growth and fuel demand were accelerating.

CBOT Soybean -  Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended higher on Tuesday on uncertainty about prospects for much-needed rains in crop areas of Argentina, traders said.

·         The market pared gains after the midday run of the main U.S. weather forecasting model added more rain to Argentina's crop belt, but some private forecasters were skeptical of the update, and values firmed by the close.

·         Soybean harvest delays or transport problems in South America may shift business back to the United States in the next one to three months, pushing up U.S. soybean futures, analysts Oil World said.

·         China is set to increase its soybean, soyoil and palm oil imports in the current 2012/13 season to meet demand created by the country’s continued economic growth, Hamburg-based oilseeds analyst Oil World said.

·         China's soybean imports between April and June are likely to reach 15 million tonnes, up from an estimated 11 million tonnes in the first quarter, according to government think tank the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre.

·         Brazilian analysts Safras e Mercado raised its estimate of Brazil's 2012/2013 soybean crop to 84.69 million tonnes, up 25 percent from last year's crop and up slightly from its previous outlook of 84.31 million tonnes in December.

·         Malaysian palm oil futures rose on expectation some buyers may switch after Indonesia announced a higher crude palm oil export tax, although gains were limited by persistent concerns over record stocks.

FCPO - SINGAPORE, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures gained on Tuesday on expectation some buyers may switch after Indonesia announced a higher crude palm oil export tax, although gains were limited by persisting concerns over record stocks.

Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, will increase its export tax for crude palm oil to 9 percent for February from 7.5 percent in the previous month, while Malaysia's crude palm oil export tax will remain at zero percent for February.

"The market is a bit uncertain now, the focus is on stocks and exports. That's why we see some range-trading today," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia. "But the higher Indonesia tax could be a reason why the market is a bit positive."

By market close, the benchmark April contract n the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had climbed 1.3 percent to 2,476 ringgit ($805) per tonne. The market traded in a range of 2,446-2,484 ringgit after resuming trading from a Monday holiday.

Total traded volumes stood at 30,506 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Market players will be looking out for Malaysia's January palm exports data due Thursday for further trading cues.

Shipments for the first 25 days of the month suffered a double-digit decline on lower Chinese and European demand, raising worries that stocks could still climb higher in January after hitting a record 2.63 million tonnes last month.

Palm oil exports from Indonesia fell 4 percent to 1.9 million tonnes in December from the previous month, industry data showed on Tuesday.

Brent crude stayed above $113 on Tuesday on hopes that economic growth might be picking up in the world's largest oil consumer after a gauge of planned U.S. business spending rose in December, adding to recent positive global economic data. 

Jan 29 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets gained on Tuesday, with the Philippines hitting a record high and the region enjoyed foreign inflows ahead of more U.S. economic data and a Federal Reserve policy decision later in the week that may offer clues to the Fed's stimulus plans.

Philippine Composite Index ended 0.7 percent firmer at a record closing high of 6,234.73 points, after hitting a fresh intraday peak of 6,254.04.

Thai SET index rose 0.5 percent to 1,478.77, its highest close since November 1994.

Manila saw a net foreign inflow of $31.9 million, Jakarta received a net foreign buying of $20.4 million, and Kuala Lumpur witnessed an inflow of $49.46 million.

Indonesia gained 0.5 percent and ended at 4439.03 and Vietnam ended 0.9 percent higher at 484.01, a near nine-month high. Malaysia ended steady.