Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Stock markets around the world rose and the dollar fell to a 14-month low against the euro on Tuesday amid rising risk appetite as the Federal Reserve began a two-day policy meeting in which it is expected to maintain its easy monetary policy.

A report that showed U.S. single-family home prices rose in November, building on a string of gains that point to a housing market that is on the mend, added to investor optimism on economic growth.

Still, investors were cautious about making big bets, given mixed U.S. economic data, the run-up in stocks in recent weeks and risk in the form of a slew of economic reports for the rest of the week, as well as the Fed meeting.

Markets were initially weaker on a report showing U.S. consumer confidence dropped in January to its lowest in more than a year. But that same data kept alive expectations the Fed will maintain its ultra-easy monetary policy for the foreseeable future.

"There is a serious split between the attitudes of consumers and the attitudes of the markets," said Joseph Trevisani, chief market strategist at WorldWideMarkets, in Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey, after the consumer confidence data. "This may make for a weaker dollar as it makes it less likely the Fed will contemplate an early removal of QE," referring to the central bank's debt-buying program called quantitative easing.
The euro extended gains versus the dollar, breaking above key resistance to hit a 14-month high It last traded at $1.3491.

STOCKS GAIN
The Dow Jones industrial average gained 72.49 points, or 0.52 percent, at 13,954.42. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 7.66 points, or 0.51 percent, at 1,507.84. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 0.64 points, or 0.02 percent, at 3,153.66.

"A move like this in one month is extraordinary, and keeping the gains going will depend on concrete news like earnings and data that show the economy is getting better," said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia. "We haven't seen enough of that to make people jump in after the rally we've had."

European stocks scaled two-year highs, boosted by miners, as optimism about economic recovery gained momentum following the encouraging U.S. home price data and comments on growth in top metals consumer China.

U.S. DEBT
In the U.S. Treasury debt market, benchmark 10-year yields proved unable to hold above the key 2 percent level touched on Monday, with investors looking ahead to a debt auction later in the day, as well as the Fed meeting.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was down 9/32, the yield at 1.9955 percent.

Debt prices had earlier reversed losses to advance after the U.S. consumer confidence data.

Investors now await the outcome of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The Fed is not expected to change its stance after deciding only in December to loosen conditions further. However, investors are watching to see if changes in the membership of the policy-setting committee for 2013 could signal a shift in the future.

Gold snapped a four-day losing streak to rise 0.5 percent to around $1,662.60 an ounce, but any hint that the Fed is considering an end to its loose monetary policy would probably send the precious metal down.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, Jan 29 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose more than 1 percent on Tuesday, after strong U.S. housing market data bolstered confidence that economic growth and fuel demand were accelerating.

CBOT Soybean -  Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended higher on Tuesday on uncertainty about prospects for much-needed rains in crop areas of Argentina, traders said.

·         The market pared gains after the midday run of the main U.S. weather forecasting model added more rain to Argentina's crop belt, but some private forecasters were skeptical of the update, and values firmed by the close.

·         Soybean harvest delays or transport problems in South America may shift business back to the United States in the next one to three months, pushing up U.S. soybean futures, analysts Oil World said.

·         China is set to increase its soybean, soyoil and palm oil imports in the current 2012/13 season to meet demand created by the country’s continued economic growth, Hamburg-based oilseeds analyst Oil World said.

·         China's soybean imports between April and June are likely to reach 15 million tonnes, up from an estimated 11 million tonnes in the first quarter, according to government think tank the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre.

·         Brazilian analysts Safras e Mercado raised its estimate of Brazil's 2012/2013 soybean crop to 84.69 million tonnes, up 25 percent from last year's crop and up slightly from its previous outlook of 84.31 million tonnes in December.

·         Malaysian palm oil futures rose on expectation some buyers may switch after Indonesia announced a higher crude palm oil export tax, although gains were limited by persistent concerns over record stocks.



FCPO - SINGAPORE, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures gained on Tuesday on expectation some buyers may switch after Indonesia announced a higher crude palm oil export tax, although gains were limited by persisting concerns over record stocks.

Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, will increase its export tax for crude palm oil to 9 percent for February from 7.5 percent in the previous month, while Malaysia's crude palm oil export tax will remain at zero percent for February.

"The market is a bit uncertain now, the focus is on stocks and exports. That's why we see some range-trading today," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia. "But the higher Indonesia tax could be a reason why the market is a bit positive."

By market close, the benchmark April contract n the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had climbed 1.3 percent to 2,476 ringgit ($805) per tonne. The market traded in a range of 2,446-2,484 ringgit after resuming trading from a Monday holiday.

Total traded volumes stood at 30,506 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Market players will be looking out for Malaysia's January palm exports data due Thursday for further trading cues.

Shipments for the first 25 days of the month suffered a double-digit decline on lower Chinese and European demand, raising worries that stocks could still climb higher in January after hitting a record 2.63 million tonnes last month.

Palm oil exports from Indonesia fell 4 percent to 1.9 million tonnes in December from the previous month, industry data showed on Tuesday.

Brent crude stayed above $113 on Tuesday on hopes that economic growth might be picking up in the world's largest oil consumer after a gauge of planned U.S. business spending rose in December, adding to recent positive global economic data. 

Jan 29 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets gained on Tuesday, with the Philippines hitting a record high and the region enjoyed foreign inflows ahead of more U.S. economic data and a Federal Reserve policy decision later in the week that may offer clues to the Fed's stimulus plans.

Philippine Composite Index ended 0.7 percent firmer at a record closing high of 6,234.73 points, after hitting a fresh intraday peak of 6,254.04.

Thai SET index rose 0.5 percent to 1,478.77, its highest close since November 1994.

Manila saw a net foreign inflow of $31.9 million, Jakarta received a net foreign buying of $20.4 million, and Kuala Lumpur witnessed an inflow of $49.46 million.

Indonesia gained 0.5 percent and ended at 4439.03 and Vietnam ended 0.9 percent higher at 484.01, a near nine-month high. Malaysia ended steady.