KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 30 (Reuters) -
India may raise import duties on edible oils such as palm oil and soyoil again
this year, with the government looking to protect domestic oilseed farmers as
inflation slows, leading industry analyst Dorab Mistry said.
India, the world's No.1 edible oil
buyer, this month hiked import duties on crude imports to 2.5 percent from zero
and lifted a six year freeze on the taxable value of cargoes to curb cheap
imports from top palm suppliers Indonesia and Malaysia.
While India left refined edible oil
import duties unchanged, the policy move on crude showed it was still wary on
inflation that slowed last month to its lowest in three years, said Mistry, who
closely tracks the country's oilseed sector.
"I expect the next step to be
announced in the budget at the end of February," Mistry, head of trading
with India's leading speciality chemicals group, Godrej Industries, told
Reuters in an interview on Wednesday.
"The industry has requested
import duty at 10 percent on unrefined oils and 17.5 percent on refined oils
and I believe we shall get that level by end of March 2013 at the latest,"
he said.
New Delhi raising import taxes
counters Malaysia's move to lower its crude export duty to reduce record palm
oil stocks and helps to raise India's falling domestic oilseed price.
As a rule of thumb, India's soybean
and rapeseed farmers need a minimum price of 35,000-38,000 rupees ($650-$710) a
tonne to continue planting these crops, Mistry said. Current prices for
soybeans are hovering at 32,400 rupees a tonne, according to industry data.
This spurs farmers to switch to
other more lucrative crops such as corn, pulses and vegetables, setting the
stage for India's government to raise import duties on crude oils to 20 percent
and refined oils to 27.5 percent by August, Mistry added.
"Remember from August we shall
have a torrent of sunflower oil available for export from Russia and Ukraine,
and this oil will go to a discount to soya oil and will pressure prices all
over the vegetable oil complex."
VERY HIGH PALM OIL STOCKS
India imports about half the 16
million to 17 million tonnes of edible oils it consumes every year, mostly palm
oil from Indonesia and Malaysia.
Mistry said that any further policy
move by India would impact these two Southeast Asian countries where palm oil
prices were very high at 2,400-2,500 ringgit ($790-$820) even though Malaysian
stocks hit a record 2.6 million tonnes in December.
Mistry said these prices may not
prompt much expansion in demand for the edible oil as palm oil output grows and
competing soyoil supply jumps from May onwards.
"I do not expect Malaysian
stocks to decline below 2 million tonnes in the foreseeable future," he
said.
Malaysia's January palm oil stocks
will be almost unchanged from December, with declines expected in February to
April. By May, stocks will build again, Mistry said.
Indonesia, which does not publish
stocks figures, has current inventories of about 5 million tonnes.
"Of these about 1 tonne is
systemic stocks which are permanently required in view of the extended and poor
logistics in Indonesia," Mistry said.
