HAMBURG, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Soybean
harvest delays or transport problems in South America may shift business back
to the United States in the next one to three months, pushing up U.S. soybean
futures, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said.
The global soybean market is
counting on huge South American crops in early 2013 to relieve tight world
supplies after a drought in the United States in 2012, and there is intense
concern about any delays or weather damage to harvests in Brazil and Argentina.
“If insufficient South American
exports in February and March shift back some business to U.S. origin, it could
have an explosive impact on U.S. soybean futures in the May contract,” Oil
World said on Tuesday.
“Although the South American crops
are record high - at least on paper - it is questionable whether sufficient
quantities can be physically moved in time, considering the insufficient
facilities for inland transportation and at the ports,” Oil World said.
Brazil is forecast to overtake the
United States as the number one exporter and producer of soybeans this season,
with a 30 percent increase in its soybean crop, but the country has added no
new capacity to its ports.
“The current harvest delays in
Brazil are further complicating the situation,” the firm said.
Brazilian farmers have already
started harvesting this year’s soybean crop, which is set to reach a record 85
million tonnes.
But rain has delayed some early
Brazilian harvesting, and export supplies arriving at Brazilian ports are
smaller than expected, leading to an increasing number of ships waiting to
load, Oil World said.
Argentine farmers have sold only an
estimated 10 percent of their expected 2013 crop so far, less than half of they
sold in early 2012, because of fears about exchange rate movements, it said.
“The transition from U.S. to South
American (export) supplies could turn out more difficult than expected,” Oil
World said.
Oil World warned on Monday that U.S.
soybean supplies will be tight in early 2013 after its poor crop and large
export sales.
