Friday, April 10, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures extended its rally to hit 2300 mark on the back of supportive official March09 supply/demand data.

Palm oil futures extended its rally to hit 2300 mark on the back of supportive official March09 supply/demand data. Benchmark Jun09 initially encountered some selling pressure from profit taking activities that emerged in the early trading. It slid to intra day low of 2240 after opened almost unchanged at 2270. However, the released of MPOB supply/demand data during lunch break saw CPO prices to bounce back again when second session resumed trading. The data had shown that March end stock level fell 12.9% to 1.36 million tonnes (20-month low), which was lower than expectation of 1.40 million tonnes. The effect of lower stock level had offset the 7% increase in production. Benchmark Jun09 surged to intra day high of 2302 in late second session and finally ended RM30 higher at 2299. Both private cargo surveyors also showed good results on the first 10 days of April export data, as ITS and SGS reported an increase of 8% and 3% respectively.

RTRS-UPDATE 1-Malaysian palm stocks drops to 20-mth low-MPOB

KUALA LUMPUR, April 10 - Malaysian crude palm oil inventories fell 12.89 percent to a 20-month low in March as strong domestic and foreign consumption outstripped a rise in output, industry data showed on Friday.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board said stocks slid to 1,363,657 tonnes, confirming fears of a supply squeeze that has prompted traders to scramble for positions in the last few days.

The figure, the lowest since July 2007, was in line with a forecast 12.8 percent fall to 1,362,000 tonnes in a Reuters poll.

Palm oil output in March was up 7.44 percent at 1,275,736 tonnes while shipments edged up 0.23 percent 1,260,380 tonnes. Traders say domestic consumption for March would have been about 200,000 tonnes as more Malaysians switch to cheaper palm oil as a cooking oil.

Breaking News-RTRS-China to study whether to end stockpiling rapeseed, soy beans

BEIJING, April 9 (Reuters) - The government is considering whether to continue stockpiling soy beans, rapeseed and corn, Zeng Liying, deputy director of State Administration of Grain, said on Thursday at a conference. Separately, a trader at an international trading house said China's rapeseed imports could rise as much as 3 million tonnes in the year ending in May, compared with about 900,000 tonnes in the previous year.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, April 9 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks jumped on Thursday after Wells Fargo said it expects to report a record quarterly profit, fueling a month-long rally prompted by hopes that deterioration in the financial sector was abating.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 246.27 points, or 3.14 percent, to 8,083.38. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 31.40 points, or 3.81 percent, to 856.56. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> climbed 61.88 points, or 3.89 percent, to 1,652.54.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, April 9 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended higher for a second day in a row on Thursday, latching on to rising stock markets and data showing U.S. jobless claims eased, spurring hopes that oil demand could improve.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude settled up up $2.86, or 5.79 percent, at $52.24 a barrel, trading from $49.72 to $54.45.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- May up 1 cent at $10.07 per bushel. Support from USDA's April supply/demand report that showed 2008/09 U.S. soy ending stocks slightly below estimates and USDA trimming its Argentine soy crop estimate by 4 million tonnes to 39 million tonnes. Rallying stock market and crude oil supportive.

USDA pegs U.S. 2008/09 soy end stocks at 165 million bushels, below an average estimate of 167 million. If realized, would be the tightest bean supply since Aug. 31, 2004.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- May up 0.43 cent at 35.42 cents per lb. Following soybeans, stock market and crude oil.

FCPO-
KUALA LUMPUR, April 9 (Reuters) - Asian vegetable oil markets jumped on Thursday, lifted by expectations of global tightness in supplies and a rise in crude oil prices .

The benchmark June contract on Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange rose as much as 116 ringgit to 2,281 ringgit ($628.7) per tonne, a level unseen since Sept. 29, 2008 before settling at 2,269 ringgit, up 4.8 percent.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, April 9 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks ended mostly higher on Thursday on hopes that retail spending may be picking up in the United States, although trade was slow because of market holidays around the region.

In Kuala Lumpur, the index <.KLSE> gained 1.1 percent, ending a two-day decline, buoyed by buying of conglomerate Genting , up 3.3 percent, and top lender Maybank , up 1.6 percent.

The Philippine stock market <.PSI> is closed for the rest of the week for holidays, and Indonesia <.JKSE> was closed because of elections. Thailand is closed for three days next week.

DJI Daily: 8000 mark tested again


Market violated the 8000 mark again with triple digit gains. However, market need to stay firm above 8000 mark in order to maintain its upside momentum. We are looking for the immediate upside resistance at 8100-8200. Downside support is pegged at 7700

KLSE Daily: likely to continue its upside move


Market looks may continue to challenge the immediate upside resistance at 926-930. A successful breakout from 930 level may lead market to 936-944 (upside gap left over since 15/10/2008). Meanwhile, downside support is pegged 905-900.

FKLI Daily: The return of Bulls


Bulls look will continue to strike with upside target at 930-944. To the downside, support is pegged at 910-900.

FCPO Daily: Bull is gaining strength


Market had a fabulous breakout at 2200 and tested the resistance at 2250-2280 in intra-day basis. The overall technical landscape looks more bullish following prices stayed firm above 2200 mark. As for now, we are looking for the upside resistance at 2300-2350. To the downside, support is pegged at 2150-2100.