KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Average palm oil prices are set to decline in 2012 for the first time in three years, squeezed by ample supply from Southeast Asia and faltering demand as global growth weakens because of Europe's debt crisis.
A median poll of 25 analysts tracking top palm oil producers Indonesia and Malaysia showed 2012 price expectations for the tropical oil stood at a median 3,000 ringgit ($960) per tonne, unchanged from a survey conducted in July.
The forecast goes 7.3 percent lower than a record average of 3,237 ringgit per tonne notched last year, when most of the gains came from floods swamping estates in Malaysia in early 2011 at a time of strong demand.
Analysts say the scenario is now different, with Malaysia's opening palm oil stocks well above 2 million tonnes and La Nina-driven rains in late 2011 having a very muted impact on output this year.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
RTRS- La Nina weather pattern weakening - Australia
SYDNEY, Jan 18 (Reuters) - La Nina, a weather phenomenon usually linked to heavy rains and flooding in the Asia-Pacific region and South America and drought in Africa, has displayed signs of weakening over the past two weeks, Australia's weather bureau said on Wednesday.
"While La Niña conditions clearly remain, some indicators have weakened over the past fortnight," the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said.
A majority of climate models surveyed by the bureau suggest a gradual decline of La Niña, with most models suggesting an end of the event during the coming Australian autumn, it said.
"While La Niña conditions clearly remain, some indicators have weakened over the past fortnight," the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said.
A majority of climate models surveyed by the bureau suggest a gradual decline of La Niña, with most models suggesting an end of the event during the coming Australian autumn, it said.
Trader's highlight
DJI- NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks jumped to their highest since July on Wednesday as the International Monetary Fund sought to help countries hit by the European debt crisis, while forecast-beating earnings from Goldman Sachs dispelled some worries over bank profits.
The stronger-than-expected earnings from Goldman Sachs Group Incfollowed disappointing results from Citigroup on Tuesday and JPMorgan Chase & Co last week.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 96.88 points, or 0.78 percent, to close at 12,578.95. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> added 14.37 points, or 1.11 percent, to 1,308.04. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> climbed 41.63 points, or 1.53 percent, to close at 2,769.71.
NYMEX- NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures edged lower as a weak global demand outlook weighed on oil prices even as news that Hovensa's large refinery in St. Croix will shut next month sent gasoline futures sharply higher and limited
crude losses.
The IEA in its monthly report cut its world oil demand growth forecast for 2012 by 220,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million bpd.
Further downgrades to global GDP estimates will trigger cuts in global oil consumption estimates, the IEA said.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, February crudefell 12 cents, or 0.12 percent, to settle at $100.59 a barrel, having traded from $99.84 to $102.06.
CBOT- SOYBEANS, Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed modest losses by the closing bell on Wednesday, pressured by wetter forecasts for Argentina, but the market pared early declines and traded higher at times on talk of Chinese demand, traders said.
Soy crushing margins in China have turned positive, analysts said, a factor that could stimulate export interest for U.S. soybeans -- at a time when wet weather in parts of central Brazil threatens to slow that country's early soy harvest.
Soy market also underpinned by weaker U.S. dollar, which tends to support dollar-backed grains and oilseeds.
Additional support from uncertainty over soy production prospects in Argentina, and firming cash soy markets in the interior U.S. Midwest.
FCPO- SINGAPORE, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures inched up on Wednesday as expectations that erratic weather in South America and Southeast Asia could limit edible oil supply overshadowed lingering European debt worries. Investors shifted their focus back to Europe ahead of a Portugal debt sale and as Greece resumes its debt restructuring talks.
But prospects of worsening drought in Argentina and wet weather in Malaysia lifted palm oil futures, which are slightly up by 0.2 percent so far this year.
Benchmark April palm oil futureson the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 0.5 percent to close at 3,180 ringgit ($1022) per tonne. Traded volumes picked up after the midday break to end at 26,861 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.
REGIONAL EQUITIES- BANGKOK, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Indonesian stocks pushed higher on Wednesday, reversing early losses after Moody's upgraded the credit status of Southeast Asia's biggest economy to investment grade, with banks rallying following deposit ratings upgrades by the ratings agency.
Jakarta's Composite Index <.JKSE> edged up 0.6 percent. Among nine Indonesian banks in the Moody's list, PT Bank Mandiri Tbkclimbed 2.2 percent and PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk gained 1.4 percent.
Most other Southeast Asian stock markets were lower as market players took quick profits after Tuesday's rally following above-forecast GDP growth in China.
Singapore <.FTSTI> fell 0.7 percent, Malaysia <.KLSE> eased 0.13 percent and Thai stocks <.SETI> was down 0.5 percent.
The stronger-than-expected earnings from Goldman Sachs Group Inc
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 96.88 points, or 0.78 percent, to close at 12,578.95. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> added 14.37 points, or 1.11 percent, to 1,308.04. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> climbed 41.63 points, or 1.53 percent, to close at 2,769.71.
NYMEX- NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures edged lower as a weak global demand outlook weighed on oil prices even as news that Hovensa's large refinery in St. Croix will shut next month sent gasoline futures sharply higher and limited
crude losses.
The IEA in its monthly report cut its world oil demand growth forecast for 2012 by 220,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million bpd.
Further downgrades to global GDP estimates will trigger cuts in global oil consumption estimates, the IEA said.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, February crude
CBOT- SOYBEANS, Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed modest losses by the closing bell on Wednesday, pressured by wetter forecasts for Argentina, but the market pared early declines and traded higher at times on talk of Chinese demand, traders said.
Soy crushing margins in China have turned positive, analysts said, a factor that could stimulate export interest for U.S. soybeans -- at a time when wet weather in parts of central Brazil threatens to slow that country's early soy harvest.
Soy market also underpinned by weaker U.S. dollar, which tends to support dollar-backed grains and oilseeds.
Additional support from uncertainty over soy production prospects in Argentina, and firming cash soy markets in the interior U.S. Midwest.
FCPO- SINGAPORE, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures inched up on Wednesday as expectations that erratic weather in South America and Southeast Asia could limit edible oil supply overshadowed lingering European debt worries. Investors shifted their focus back to Europe ahead of a Portugal debt sale and as Greece resumes its debt restructuring talks.
But prospects of worsening drought in Argentina and wet weather in Malaysia lifted palm oil futures, which are slightly up by 0.2 percent so far this year.
Benchmark April palm oil futures
REGIONAL EQUITIES- BANGKOK, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Indonesian stocks pushed higher on Wednesday, reversing early losses after Moody's upgraded the credit status of Southeast Asia's biggest economy to investment grade, with banks rallying following deposit ratings upgrades by the ratings agency.
Jakarta's Composite Index <.JKSE> edged up 0.6 percent. Among nine Indonesian banks in the Moody's list, PT Bank Mandiri Tbk
Most other Southeast Asian stock markets were lower as market players took quick profits after Tuesday's rally following above-forecast GDP growth in China.
Singapore <.FTSTI> fell 0.7 percent, Malaysia <.KLSE> eased 0.13 percent and Thai stocks <.SETI> was down 0.5 percent.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
