RTRS- China may have to curb soy imports up to Feb 2013-Oil World

HAMBURG, Oct 23 (Reuters) - China may have to curb its huge soybean imports up until February 2013 because of tight supplies and a continued trend of heavy Chinese buying could push Chicago prices up again, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

“World exports of soybeans will suffer an unprecedented decline in Sept. 2012/Feb. 2013,” Oil World said. “We now forecast exports at 38.0 million tonnes, a four-year low and an impressive 4.8 million tonnes below a year earlier.”

Soybean futures hit an all-time high on Sept. 4 after drought ravaged U.S. crops following poor South American soybean harvests earlier in the year.

Soybean prices have slipped from the peak but the world faces tight supplies until the new crop from Brazil and Argentina enter the global market around March 2013.

“This will require demand rationing, primarily in China, the world’s largest importer of soybeans,” Oil World said.

However, China’s September 2012 soybean imports were still rising at 5.0 million tonnes, up by 0.8 million tonnes on September 2011, it said.

“But sizeable year-on-year reductions in Chinese imports will be inevitable in Oct. 2012/Feb. 2013, resulting in a sizable decline in Chinese soybean stocks,” it said.

The timing and volume of U.S. soybean exports to China will be a key price-determining factor to watch in coming months, it said.

“Lack of rationing of Chinese imports would initiate a renewed acceleration of soybean prices on the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) and on the world market,” it said.

RTRS- Indonesia may cut palm export tax to 10.5 pct in Nov -industry SMAR.JK WLIL.SI

JAKARTA, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, may cut its export tax for crude palm oil to 10.5 percent for November, from 13.5 percent for October, an industry group said on Tuesday.

Lower benchmark prices over the last month will prompt the government move, Fadhil Hasan, executive director of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), told Reuters.

From late August, benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures FCPOc3 have fallen by as much as 29 percent due to a slowing economic outlook and a rise in stocks, but have partly recovered to trade at about 2,541 ringgit ($833) per tonne on Tuesday.

Southeast Asia's largest economy has a palm export tax system that aims to boost downstream industries, secure domestic supplies and reduce volatility in cooking oil prices.

The tax rate for the subsequent month is calculated by government officials based on CIF Rotterdam prices, the Malaysian benchmark and Jakarta futures prices.

RTRS- Strong demand to raise palm oil prices -Oil World

HAMBURG, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Palm oil prices are likely to rise sharply in coming months on brisk buying interest as global importers seek cheaper alternatives to more expensive products including soyoil, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

“We expect a pronounced recovery in palm oil prices due to strong demand and spillover strength from other vegetable oils,” Oil World said.

Palm oil prices have been generally weak in the past two months, partly on fears about large stocks in Asian producing countries, and is currently about $250 a tonne cheaper than Argentine soyoil, Oil World said.

“Prices of crude and processed palm oils have already recovered by $30-$40 (a tonne) during the past 2-3 weeks,” it said. “Additional advances are likely to occur in the next 2-3 months, but most of the price appreciation will probably occur in the first 3-4 months of 2013.”

“We expect an increase in crude palm oil futures to a high of about 3,300 ringgit ($982 a tonne) on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives up to March or April 2013.”

The benchmark January palm oil contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia exchange was trading around 2,541 ringgit ($833) per tonne on Tuesday.

“In Rotterdam, crude palm oil prices may advance to a high of $1,150 (a tonne), approximately $300 above the current level,” Oil World added.

Global vegetable oil consumption will still rise in coming months, it forecast. The sluggish economic environment and reduced demand for biofuels will slow down the rate of increase but not cause a fall, it said.

Looming declines in export supplies of soyoil, sunflower oil and rapeseed oil will raise global demand for palm, it said.

“The current very attractive palm oil prices give an incentive to switch already now,” it added.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Oct 23 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday, driving the Dow industrials to the biggest drop since June 21, as weak results from index members DuPont and United Technologies showed profit growth is slowing.

This earnings season has so far produced a string of disappointments from companies falling short of Wall Street's expectations. With results in from 29 percent of S&P 500 companies, 37 percent have exceeded revenue forecasts, far short of the 62 percent average, and just 57.2 percent of the S&P 500 names reporting so far have beaten earnings forecasts, according to Thomson Reuters data.

That would be the worst percentage of companies beating earnings estimates since the fourth quarter of 2001 - should it stay at the current level, the data showed.

"We've had a series of misses, topped off by DuPont's pretty dismal earnings this morning," said Bruce Zaro, chief technical strategist at Delta Global Asset Management, in Boston.

"Expectations were low and results have been coming in generally lower, and that's why we're seeing weakness here," he said.

Zaro sees the S&P 500 possibly falling as low as the 1,390 to 1,400 range in the near term.

DuPont's stock lost 9.1 percent to $45.25 after the chemical company reported lower-than-expected quarterly profit and announced 1,500 job cuts. The stock was responsible for a 33-point drag on the Dow, which ended down more than 240 points.

The S&P materials sector index .GSPM fell 3 percent, largely because of DuPont.

Outlooks have been weak as well. DuPont, United Technologies and 3M Co MMM.N all cut their outlooks on Tuesday.

Apple's AAPL.O Chief Executive Tim Cook announced the iPad and iPhone maker was launching a smaller, cheaper tablet. Its 8-inch tablet is expected to compete in a market staked out by Amazon.com Inc AMZN.O and Google Inc GOOG.O. Apple shares dropped 3.3 percent to $613.36.

Shares of elevator and air conditioner manufacturer United Technologies were down 1 percent at $77.07 while 3M shares were down 4.1 percent at $88.73.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI slid 243.36 points, or 1.82 percent, to close at 13,102.53. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX fell 20.71 points, or 1.44 percent, to 1,413.11. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC dropped 26.49 points, or 0.88 percent, to end at 2,990.46.

After the bell, shares of Facebook FB.O shot up 8.6 percent to $21.18 as the world's No. 1 online social network company posted a 32 percent jump in third-quarter revenue. Facebook ended the regular session at $19.50, up 0.9 percent.

One outlier from the regular session was United Parcel Service UPS.N, which gained 3 percent to $73.73 despite earnings that were viewed by some as disappointing. The Dow Jones Transportation Average .DJT rose 0.9 percent.

Overall earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to fall 2.5 percent in the third quarter from a year ago, Thomson Reuters data showed.

In a development reviving investors' worry about Europe, Moody's downgraded five key Spanish regions by one or two notches late on Monday, citing their limited cash reserves and forthcoming bond repayments.

Volume was roughly 6.6 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, compared with the year-to-date average daily closing volume of 6.52 billion.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Oct 23 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell 2 percent on Tuesday as concerns about slowing global economic growth, Europe's continuing debt crisis, and weak forecasts from U.S. corporations reporting quarterly earnings pressured oil and equities.

 

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose for a second day, bucking a broad sell-off in commodities, as firm U.S. cash markets for soymeal and soybeans lifted front contracts against back months, traders said.

* Farmer soybean sales appear to have slowed as the U.S. harvest enters its final weeks. USDA late on Monday said the soy harvest was 80 percent complete, ahead of the five-year average of 69 percent.

• Soymeal futures posted the biggest gains in the complex as steady demand for high-protein soymeal from animal feeders and exporters keeps cash market strong.

• China may have to curb its huge soybean imports up until February 2013 because of tight supplies, and a continued trend of heavy Chinese buying could lift CBOT prices - Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World.

• Palm oil prices are likely to rise sharply in coming months on brisk buying interest as global importers seek cheaper alternatives to more expensive products including soyoil - Oil World.

• South Korea seeks 50,000 tonnes of non-genetically modified soybeans for arrival between July and August via tenders, Korea Argo-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp said.

• CBOT November soybean options expire on Friday.

FCPO- KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Tuesday as investors booked profits after the previous session's three-week high on worries that October's stronger-than-expected exports were not enough to trim record high stocks in the world's No.2 producer.

Prices went up to 2,580 ringgit on Monday, a level unseen since Sept. 28, after data from cargo surveyors showed that exports in the first twenty days of the month surged as much as 16.7 percent.

"Yesterday prices went up too fast, way above market expectations," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"Those who went long yesterday are now liquidating their positions and taking some profit because of the uncertainty over this export number," he added.

The benchmark January contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 1.4 percent to close at 2,540 ringgit ($831) per tonne.

Total traded volumes stood at 33,116 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots as investors hedged positions after the positive export data.

Technical analysis showed palm oil may rebound further to 2,676 ringgit per tonne, with a support level of 2,492 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Seasonally high production amid commodity demand weakened by a tepid global economy lifted palm oil stocks in Malaysia to a record high 2.5 million tonnes in September, hurting prices which has dropped one-fifth so far this year.

Despite the positive export numbers signalling improving demand from the European Union and Pakistan, investors remain wary about the future.

"I'm quite positive about it but as of now, that's the only hope that we have," the trader added.

"Whether the number is sufficient to bring the stock level lower or not for the coming report in November is still a big question."

In related markets, Brent futures slipped for a sixth day on Tuesday as worries about the global economy, and oil demand growth, resurfaced, but prices stayed above $109 a barrel, propped up by simmering tensions in the Middle East.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 slid 0.4 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active May 2013 soybean oil contract DBYcv1 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 0.6 percent.

REGIONAL EQUITY- Oct 23 (Reuters) - Most of the Southeast Asian stocks edged up on Tuesday in thin trading volume as investors cautiously bought risky assets ahead of quarterly earning release with Indonesia and Malaysia seeing mild foreign outflows.

Singapore .FTSTI, Malaysia .KLSE, and Vietnam .VNI edged up 0.2 percent each, while the Philippines .PSI closed 0.1 percent firmer.

Investors were on the sidelines to see the performance of the listed firms in the September quarter amid global slowdown concerns, analysts said.

Malaysia saw an outflow of 5.02 million, while Jakarta .JKSE which fell 0.3 percent, witnessed $12.95 million net foreign selling on Tuesday.

Thailand stock market .SETI was closed for a public holiday.