HAMBURG, Oct 23 (Reuters) - China may have to curb its huge soybean imports up until February 2013 because of tight supplies and a continued trend of heavy Chinese buying could push Chicago prices up again, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
“World exports of soybeans will suffer an unprecedented decline in Sept. 2012/Feb. 2013,” Oil World said. “We now forecast exports at 38.0 million tonnes, a four-year low and an impressive 4.8 million tonnes below a year earlier.”
Soybean futures hit an all-time high on Sept. 4 after drought ravaged U.S. crops following poor South American soybean harvests earlier in the year.
Soybean prices have slipped from the peak but the world faces tight supplies until the new crop from Brazil and Argentina enter the global market around March 2013.
“This will require demand rationing, primarily in China, the world’s largest importer of soybeans,” Oil World said.
However, China’s September 2012 soybean imports were still rising at 5.0 million tonnes, up by 0.8 million tonnes on September 2011, it said.
“But sizeable year-on-year reductions in Chinese imports will be inevitable in Oct. 2012/Feb. 2013, resulting in a sizable decline in Chinese soybean stocks,” it said.
The timing and volume of U.S. soybean exports to China will be a key price-determining factor to watch in coming months, it said.
“Lack of rationing of Chinese imports would initiate a renewed acceleration of soybean prices on the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) and on the world market,” it said.
