Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Trader's Comment: Lack of follow through buying support despite supportive MPOB

CPO futures ended in negative territory with a fresh low despite a supportive official MPOB’s August demand and supply data. Benchmark Nov 08 initially opened RM 6 higher at 2360 and hit the intra-day high at 2379 as overnight CBOT was reflected in yesterday e-CBOT traded in Asian time zone. However, lower than market expectation of 1-10 Sept export figures released by private cargo surveyors had kept market under pressure. Selling interest was getting aggressive following the comments from industry analyst Dorab Mistry at the conference in Singapore. Mistry comments that Malaysian CPO futures are likely to ease to around 2,200 ringgit per tonne as surging production and weak demand weighed on the market. Nov 08 then sank to record low at 2319 before it rebound and recover to settle at 2352, down RM 2 by midday break. Market momentum improved in the afternoon session following the released of official MPOB data and it was view as supportive to the market with August end stock down 6.5% at 1.848 million tonnes, from a revised of 1.977 million tonne in July. Nov 08 surged to the high at 2397. However, lack of follow through buying support coupled with intra-day liquidation saw prices eased off to settle at 2329, down RM 25 with total volume stood at 13,242 contracts changed hands.

FCPO: ended in negative territory with record low


Market created another record low at 2319 and ended in negative territory had erased the hope for rebound. We continue to look for the immediate support at 2320-2315 followed by 2240-2235. For upside, resistance remained at 2427-2451 (gap left over on 9 Sept, 2008).

FKLI: holding around 1040 mark


Market covered full the morning gap left over at 1042.5-1051.5 after holding steady around 1040 mark for the entire session. We continue to look for the support at 1036 and resistance is pegged at 1075-1080.

KLSE: close weak, eyeing 1050 mark


Weak close after violated the support at 1064. Market is eyeing the 1050 mark. Resistance is pegged at 1081-1083 (gap left over on 5 Sept, 2008).

FCPO hourly: manage to recover from fresh low of 2319


market managed to recover from the record low at 2319 had provide a little cushion to the weak momentum. We continue to look for the immediate support at 2315-2320 followed by 2235-2240. For upside, immediate resistance is at 2427-2451 (gap left over on 9 Sept, 2008).

FKLI Hourly: struggling around 1040


Market struggling around 1040 for the entire morning session. It had covered some of its upside gap left over this morning at 1042.5-1051.5. We continue to look for the support at 1036 followed by 950-940. For upside, resistance is pegged at 1046.5-1051.5 (remaining gap left over this morning).

KLSE Hourly: eyeing support at 1050


Market violated the support at 1064 and is eyeing on next support at 1050 mark.For upside, resistance is at 1070-1075.

Breaking News-RTRS-China Aug soy imports at record 3.83 m T

BEIJING, Sept 10 (Reuters) - China, the world's largest buyer of soybeans, imported 3.83 million tonnes of soybeans in August, a record monthly high, official Customs figures showed on Wednesday.

Imports in the first eight months were 24.56 million tonnes, a rise of 24 percent from the year-ago period, according to official Customs figures.

Breaking News-RTRS-Malaysian CPO futures seen at 2,200 ringgit per T-Analyst Mistry

Breaking News-RTRS-Argentine soy area larger than thought-Oil World

HAMBURG, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Argentine farmers are likely to plant more soybeans than previously expected this year and turn away from wheat and sunflower sowings, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

Argentina's 2008/09 soybean sowings could rise to at least 17.85 million hectares from 16.94 million hectares in 2007/08, it estimates. But the 2008/09 total could be higher.

Breaking News-RTRS-Oil World expects lower chinese soybean imports

HAMBURG, Sept 9 (Reuters) - China's August 2008/July 2009 soybean imports are likely to fall to 34.50 million tonnes from 34.67 million tonnes in the year-earlier period due to a larger domestic crop, oilseeds forecaster Oil World said on Tuesday.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks plunged on Tuesday, driving the benchmark S&P 500 to its worst day in one and a half years, as concern about Lehman Brothers' ability to raise much-needed capital reignited fears about the broader financial sector.

Lehman's slide began on news that talks about a possible investment into Lehman from Korea Development Bank had broken down, and it continued after Standard & Poor's rating agency said it could cut the investment bank's credit rating.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 279.11 points, or 2.42 percent, at 11,231.63. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 43.15 points, or 3.40 percent, at 1,224.64. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 59.95 points, or 2.64 percent, at 2,209.81.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures dropped to a new five-month low on Tuesday as Hurricane Ike shifted its path away from most oil production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico and OPEC appeared likely to leave output targets unchanged.

NYMEX October WTI futures were down $2.19 at $104.15 a barrel at 1:00 p.m. (1700 GMT) after trading as low as $103.46 a barrel.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - September up 14-1/2 cents at $12.09 per bushel, November up 9 cents at $12.01.

Boosted by some midday forecasts for a freeze late next week in the United States that could harm the soybean crop. Soy followed soymeal higher.

SOYOIL - September down 0.35 at 48.18 cents per lb.Falling crude oil weighs but gains in soy limit losses.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures fell nearly 5 percent on Tuesday to the lowest level in more than a year, rattled by weaker crude oil and comments from leading industry analysts, dealers said.

The benchmark November crude palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended down 115 ringgit or 4.66 percent at 2,354 ringgit a tonne after trading as low as 2,346 ringgit a tonne, a level not seen since August 21, 2007.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-SINGAPORE, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian share markets retreated on Tuesday as optimism fizzled over the bailout of U.S.mortgage giants and sliding crude palm prices dragged down commodity stocks.

Indonesia slid 3.9 percent, weighed down by resources and banks, while Singapore dropped 0.9 percent, Malaysia shed 0.7 percent and Thailand 0.3 percent.

DJI: losing strength, sell on rebound


Market surrendered all its earlier gains to end sharply lower. Market is losing strength as failed to hold ground and suggest to sell on rebound. We now look for the immediate resistance at 11625-11635. For downside, immediate support is pegged at 11125 followed by 11037.