Thursday, February 14, 2013

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Feb 13 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks drifted in light volume on Wednesday, ending little changed, as investors remained cautious after the S&P 500 index briefly hit its highest intraday level since November 2007.

The S&P 500 was buoyed by General Electric GE.N after cable company Comcast Corp CMCSA.O said it will buy from GE the the part of NBCUniversal it didn't already own for $16.7 billion.
The S&P 500 is up 6.6 percent so far this year, partly due to stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and a better economic outlook. The Dow industrials is about 1 percent away from an all-time intraday high, reached in October 2007.

Volume has been weak in recent days with the S&P moving sideways around 1,520. The index is about 3 percent away from closing at a record high.

A scarcity of sellers after a consistent string of gains is a positive sign and shows the uptrend is intact, King Lip, chief investment officer at Baker Avenue Asset Management in San Francisco, said.

"Last year we had double-digit returns in the first quarter. It's fairly possible we can move higher from here," he said.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 35.79 points or 0.26 percent, to 13,982.91, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 0.9 point or 0.06 percent, to 1,520.33 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 10.38 points or 0.33 percent, to 3,196.88.

The S&P gained 12 percent in the first three months of 2012.
According to the latest Thomson Reuters data, of the 364 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results, 70.3 percent have exceeded analysts' expectations, above a 62 percent average since 1994 and 65 percent over the past four quarters.

About 5.9 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, below the daily average in February last year of 6.94 billion.

On the NYSE, roughly seven issues rose for every five that fell and on Nasdaq more than six rose for every five decliners.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday to close near $119 a barrel and remain close to a nine-month high, though gains were capped by a rise in U.S. crude oil inventories and as the International Energy Agency (IEA) trimmed its demand outlook.

The rise in inventories in the world's largest oil consumer weighed on U.S. crude oil prices, which closed lower and just above $97 a barrel, down more than $1 from the day's peak.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude stocks rose by 560,000 barrels in the week ending Feb. 8, though the gain was slightly less than expected by analysts, while stockpiles of gasoline and distillates fell, according to its weekly report. EIA/S

"The underlying supply and demand fundamental picture really hasn't changed. We have a lot of oil here in the United States," said Gene McGillian, analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.

March Brent futures LCOH3 settled 6 cents up at $118.72 a barrel, having earlier touched a session high of $119.12. The March Brent futures LCOJ3 contract expires today. The April contract finished up 13 cents at $117.88.

U.S. crude futures CLc1, which finished lower last week for the first time in nine weeks, were down 50 cents at $97.01.

After narrowing in early trade, Brent's premium over U.S. crude eventually widened to $22.11 a barrel. Brokers pointed to technical resistance at the spread's 100-day moving average around $20.68 as one reason for the reversal during Wednesday's trading.

Brent was also supported by positive economic data as a Reuters poll showed that the euro zone is slowly starting to emerge from recession.
DEMAND FORECASTS

While Brent has risen by almost $10 a barrel since the middle of January, boosted by signs of strong demand from China and Saudi output cuts, the IEA on Wednesday said that the slow pace of economic recovery would keep consumption in check.

In its monthly report, the agency trimmed its demand growth forecast for 2013 by 90,000 barrels per day. That was in contrast to both the EIA and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which both raised their demand growth forecasts on Tuesday.
Prices were supported by the IEA report on Wednesday stating that Iranian oil exports will likely fall further this year as the West tightens sanctions on Tehran. Exports from Iran have already fallen to the lowest level in 30 years, the IEA said.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade halted a five-day slide, posting a higher close on bargain-buying after the spot March contract SH3 fell to a near one-month low, traders said.

* Old-crop soybean contract gained against new-crop months on spreads, resuming last week's trend following two days of spread reversal on Monday and Tuesday.
• Expectations of a bumper South American soy harvest hung over the market, limiting gains.

• Brazil's soybean harvest is 12 percent complete, analyst Celeres said, above the five-year average of 7 percent. Sales of the 2012/13 crop reached 59 percent of the expected harvest, up 1 point from the previous week and up from 42 percent by this time a year ago, Celeres said.
• Ahead of the USDA's weekly export sales report on Thursday, analysts expect soybean sales at 700,000 to 1.1 million tonnes in the latest week.
• Analysts on average expect the National Oilseed Processors Association on Friday to show the U.S. soybean crush for January at 159.5 million bushels, potentially the largest January crush since 2010. Estimates ranged from 157.0 million to 162.3 million bushels.

FCPO- KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell to a two-week low on Wednesday in light trade after a long holiday weekend, with traders staying cautious as industry data showed stocks remained high despite coming off record levels.

Data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, released during the afternoon break, showed that end-stocks in Malaysia, the world's No. 2 producer, had inched down 1.9 percent to 2.58 million tonnes in January, missing expectations of a deeper fall.
Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said Malaysia's shipments had surged 18 percent to 440,830 tonnes in the first 10 days of February from a month ago, but traders said export volumes still needed to rise to "decent" levels.
"Exports in the last five days of January showed an average of 50,000 tonnes shipped per day, which is good. We were expecting that to carry on in February, but obviously that is not the case," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"It will need to pick up in the coming days of February. We are at very high stocks here, so if that picks up then things will look a bit more rosy."

Another cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance reported a steeper 25.1 percent increase to 429,070 tonnes for the same period.
The benchmark April contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 2.2 percent to close at 2,504 ringgit ($810) per tonne, also its intraday low - a level unseen since Jan. 30.

Total traded volumes were thin at 18,873 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared with the average 25,000 tonnes, with many investors still on holiday.

Financial markets in Malaysia were closed on Monday and Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holidays while markets in China, the world's No. 2 edible oil importer, remain closed for the rest of the week.

Technical analysis showed palm oil may drop to 2,510 ringgit per tonne as a correction from the Jan. 31 high of 2,593 ringgit has not finished, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
Brent crude steadied on Wednesday, holding just below a nine-month high near $119 per barrel on forecasts for faster-than-expected growth in global oil demand this year, although easing tensions in Iran kept a lid on prices.
In competing vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for March delivery BOH3 fell 0.5 percent in late Asian trade. The Dalian Commodity Exchange will resume trading on Monday.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian markets rose to new highs on Wednesday amid selective buying in the reporting season, with Singapore Telecommunications STEL.SI lifting the city-state's share market and Ayala Land Inc ALI.PS leading a rally in the Philippines.

The region broadly saw light trading volume as major markets in Asia such as China, Taiwan and Hong Kong remain closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.
Singapore's Straits Times Index .FTSTI ended up 0.9 percent at 3,301.04, the highest close since November 2010. SingTel ended up 0.8 percent, gaining as much as 1.4 percent at one point, ahead of its third quarter earnings on Thursday.

The Philippine index .PSI rose 1.1 percent to 6,527.99, marking an all-time closing high for the fourth time this month. Developer Ayala Land jumped 4.6 percent after it reported a 27 percent rise in 2012 profit to a record level.
Jakarta's Composite Index .JKSE was up 0.5 percent at 4,571.57, also a record high. Malaysia's index .KLSE rose 0.5 percent to a week high of 1,631.16, with foreigners buying shares worth a net $65.84 million, stock exchange data showed.

Bangkok's SET index .SETI climbed 1.7 percent to 1,514.11, the highest close in more than 18 years. It was among the overbought markets in the region, with a 14-day relative strength index (RSI) at 73.57 at the close. A level higher than 70 indicates an overbought market.