Friday, November 14, 2008

FCPO Weekly: DOWNTREND remains intact


Market remains bearish mode and nothing much changes on the overall technical landscape. Downside support is pegged at 1331. For upside, we look for the immediate resistance at 1723-1736 followed by 1905-1934 (gap left over since 5/10/2008).

Trader's Comment: CPO futures surrendered its earlier gains to end at negative territory after a mix trading day

CPO futures surrendered its earlier gains to end at negative territory after a mix trading day. Benchmark Jan09 initially open RM40 higher at 1520, following the surge in overnight NYMEX crude oil of nearly 4% coupled with higher CBOT soy complex. However, traders remained concern on the weak fundamentals, with global demand still poor while production and end stocks were at higher level. Easier NYMEX crude oil in Asian time zone prompted some selling activities into BMD, this sent Benchmark Jan09 prices to slide to hit intra day low at 1447 in the afternoon session. Statement issued by CLSA which stated that palm oil may reach RM1000 next year due to oversupply and low demand for biofuel, also provided selling pressure onto the already weak sentiment. Later, Benchmark Jan09 bounce back to 1488 due to some short covering activities emerged before it settled at 1455.

FKLI Weekly: Facing resistance at 927


Gains capped following market failed to break through the immediate resistance at 927. Bear remains stayed firm with its posture. As for now, we continue to look for the support at 800 mark. For upside, immediate resistance is at 927 followed by 959-962.5.

KLSE Weekly: Maintain BEARISH


Nothing much changes on the weekly technical landscape. We maintain our bearish view towards the near term market. For now, we continue to look at the underline support at 800 mark. For upside, overhead resistance is at 970.

Breaking News-RTRS-India's Oct veg oil imports up 24 percent y/y-trade

NEW DELHI, Nov 14 (Reuters) - India's vegetable oil imports in October rose 24 percent to 827,000 tonnes against the same month last year, a leading trade body said on Friday.
Imports in the oil year to October were at 6.3 million tonnes, up from 5.6 million tonnes in the previous year, data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) showed.

Breaking News-Palm Oil May Average 32% Lower in 2009 on Oversupply, CLSA Says

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The price of palm oil may average 32 percent lower next year, partly because of oversupply and fading demand for biofuels, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets said.
Palm oil will probably fetch 1,000 ringgit ($278) a ton in 2009, and 1,250 ringgit in 2010, analysts at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets in Kuala Lumpur said in a report today, slashing forecasts for the next two years by 46 percent and 32 percent, respectively.
Palm oil, down 58 percent in the past six months, yesterday closed at 1,480 ringgit in Malaysia. Malaysia is the world's second-largest producer of the edible oil.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-NOPA October soy crush estimated at 142 mln bu

CHICAGO, Nov 13 (Reuters) - National Oilseed Processors Association monthly crush data to be released on Friday morning should show an October U.S. soybean crush of about 142 million bushels, analysts said on Thursday.
Estimates ranged from 135 million to 147 million bushels and compare with NOPA's September soy crush figure of 120.4 million.
Analysts' expected NOPA soyoil stocks to be down 45 million to up 2 million lbs from its September stocks figure of 1.988 billion lbs.

Breaking News-RTRS-INSTANT VIEW 4-German Q3 GDP contraction worse than expected

BERLIN, Nov 13 (Reuters) - German gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.5 percent in the third quarter, putting Europe's largest economy in recession for the first time in five years, Federal Statistics Office figures showed on Thursday.

Breaking News-RTRS-(USD) Global hedge fund lost $100bn of assets in Oct

(USD) The global hedge fund industry lost $100bn of assets in Oct., hammered by
redemptions, according to Eurekahedge. Funds fell an average 3.3% vs. 19% drop
in MSCI World Index in Oct. The biggest market losses since the Great
Depression and investor withdrawals hurt the $1.7trn hedge funds industry. The
index of global funds has lost 11% this yr, set for the worst performance since
2000. The trend toward redemptions in the hedge fund industry is expected to
last for another 6 mo. Some expect combined with investment losses, hedge fund
assets may shrink to $1.3trn, a 32% drop from the peak in June-Bloomberg.

Breaking News-RTRS-FUND VIEW-Affin says Malaysian stock market bottoming out

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Malaysia's Affin Fund Management is ready to snap up local stocks as it believes the market is bottoming out after falling nearly 40 percent this year.
Affin sees value in the plantation, oil and gas sectors and in consumer products, its head of investment Anuwar Idris told Reuters.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 13 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks surged on Thursday and broke a three-day losing streak after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq touched new five-year lows earlier in the session, prompting investors to put aside worries about the flagging economy and scoop up wilted shares at fire-sale prices.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> jumped 552.59 points, or 6.67 percent, to 8,835.25. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> surged 58.99 points, or 6.92 percent, to 911.29. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> climbed 97.49 points, or 6.50 percent, to 1,596.70.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, Nov 13 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended more than $2 per barrel higher on Thursday, gaining for the first time in three sessions, as Wall Street rallied on bargain-hunting after three days of sharp losses.

Before the late rally, crude futures were down after U.S. government petroleum inventory data showed that gasoline and distillate stocks rose last week.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude settled up $2.08, or 3.7 percent, at $58.24 a barrel, trading from $54.67, lowest since prices hit $53.82 on Jan. 30, 2007, to $59.11. It rose further to $59.66 after settlement.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- November up 1-3/4 cents at $8.87 per bushel; January down 1 at $8.94.

Choppy, mixed. Pressure stemmed from fears of a global recession cutting into demand. Some South American farmer hedge selling also contributes to bearish tone, along with corn/soy spreading. Demand from China seen cooling.

National Oilseed Processors Association monthly crushing report set for release on Friday. Analysts expect crush at 144 million bushels.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- December up 0.23 cent at 32.81 cents per lb. Turned higher as crude oil rallied.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures closed nearly 4 percent lower on Thursday, but were off lows on short-covering after crude oil recovered some losses, traders said.

The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed 59 ringgit, or 3.83 percent lower, to 1,480 ringgit ($411) per tonne, after having dropped earlier to 1,435 ringgit.
Other traded contracts fell between 38 ringgit and 75 ringgit. The overall volume stood at 13,001 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-Most Asian markets were hurt by uncertainty about the U.S. Treasury's banking rescue plan and signs the global financial crisis was biting deeper in Asia.

Thailand's main stock index <.SETI> closed down 0.51 percent. In Kuala Lumpur, dominant fixed-line operator Telekom Malaysia ended down 0.72 percent after initially falling more than 8 percent after brokers cut the stock's target
price following a third-quarter net loss.

DJI Daily: defended well


Market tested the immediate support at 8143 in intra-day basis and managed to recover to close triple digit up. Market looks is extending its range trading following a long white candle printed. Resistance and support is now at 9794-9653 and 7882-7965 level respectively.