Monday, February 25, 2013

Bloomberg - China’s Slower Manufacturing Casts Shadow Over Recovery: Economy


China’s manufacturing is expanding at the slowest pace in four months, a private survey showed, underscoring the headwinds faced by policy makers in the world’s second-biggest economy.
The preliminary reading of a Purchasing Managers’ Index was 50.4 in February, according to a statement from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics today. That compares with the 52.3 final reading for January and the 52.2 median estimate of 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. A number above 50 indicates expansion.
By Bloomberg News - Feb 25, 2013 2:17 PM GMT+0800
Source : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-25/china-s-manufacturing-may-expand-at-slower-pace-hsbc-pmi-shows.html

RTRS - Record US soy crop means bigger crush, exports in '13 and 14-USDA


WASHINGTON, Feb 22 (Reuters) - The U.S. soybean crop will be a record 3.405 billion bushels this year, a dramatic 13 percent increase from 2012's drought-hit crop that will allow larger U.S. crushings and exports while rebuilding stocks, said the Agriculture Department on Friday.

At its annual Outlook Forum, USDA forecast end stocks for 2013/14 of 250 million bushels, double the amount expected at the end of this marketing year and the largest stocks since 2006/07.

With the larger crop, soybean use was forecast to rise by 3 percent. Crushings would climb to 1.66 billion bushels and exports to 1.5 billion bushels. Soymeal exports were forecast to grow by 4 percent on stronger demand in Europe and Southeast Asia.

Soyoil exports would plunge by 43 percent, however, to 1.3 billion pounds due to tightening U.S. supplies, allowing Brazil and Argentina to dominate trade, said USDA.

Domestic use of soyoil was projected to rise by 0.6 percent in 2013/14, supported by a higher U.S. target, at 1.28 billion gallons, for biodiesel use.

"The use of soybean oil for U.S. biodiesel production is projected at 5.2 billion lbs - up 300 million from 2012/13," said USDA. "At this level, soybean oil accounts for just over half of expected U.S. biodiesel production."

Larger use of soyoil for biodiesel would be offset by a 1.5 percent decline in soyoil in food.

USDA said the record crop would be grown on 77.5 million acres, matching the record for plantings. The record soybean crop now is 3.359 billion bushels in 2009.

Following are USDA's projections for production and use in the 2013/14 marketing year with comparisons to USDA estimates for 2011/12 and 2012/13. 


U.S. soybean production and demand (in millions of bushels)

RTRS - Indonesia raises crude palm oil tax to 10.5 pct for March


JAKARTA, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, will increase its export tax for crude palm oil to 10.5 percent for March, from 9 percent this month, a trade ministry official said on Friday.

The government will also up its export tax for RBD palm olein to 4 percent for March from 3 percent in February, and leave its tax on cocoa bean exports unchanged at 5 percent.

Trader's highlight

Dow Jones Index - NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Friday as Dow component Hewlett-Packard surged on strong results and comments from Fed officials allayed fears that the central bank would curtail its stimulus measures.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke downplayed worries that the Fed has fueled asset bubbles that could hurt the economy in a private meeting with bond dealers and investors earlier this month, Bloomberg reported on Friday.

Bernanke's view helped ease fears that the central bank may end its easy money policies. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting hit markets on Wednesday as investors interpreted divergent opinions on the benefit of stimulus as a sign the measures may be halted sooner than thought.

"They are in uncharted territory with divergent views," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank in Chicago. "I could see some pretty heated opinions on what the ultimate outcome is, so I do believe there is dissension."

The Dow Jones industrial average  gained 119.95 points, or 0.86 percent, to 14,000.57 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 13.18 points, or 0.88 percent, to 1,515.60. The Nasdaq Composite Index  added 30.33 points, or 0.97 percent, to end at 3,161.82.

With Bernanke's reported comments much on their minds in Friday's session, investors will want the Fed chairman to reiterate his remarks publicly when he speaks before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. That would echo comments made by two top Fed officials on Friday.

The S&P 500 shed 1.9 percent over the previous two sessions, its worst two-day drop since early November, following the release of the Fed's minutes on Wednesday. The selloff marked the end of seven back-to-back weeks of gains for stocks.



Brent Crude Oil - NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Brent crude futures rose on Friday, but posted a 3 percent loss for the week, as signs of improving German business morale provided a lift following sharp losses for oil prices in the previous two sessions.

Brent April crude  rose 57 cents, or 0.50 percent, to settle at $114.10 a barrel, having traded from $113.60 to $114.79.



CBOT SoybeanSoybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended down nearly 2 percent in a reversal tied to profit taking, after the market rose to a 3-1/2 month high.

* Traders said funds appeared to be liquidating long soybean/short wheat spreads and soybean calendar spreads.
 
·         USDA at its outlook forum projected that a rebound i  yields would cause 2013/14 U.S. soybean ending stocks to double  to 250 million bushels, from 125 million in 2012/13. USDA also   projected the average U.S. soybean cash price would fall to $10.50 a bushel in 2013/14, from $14.30 in 2012/13.

·         Weather forecasts called for beneficial rains in dry areas  of Argentina this weekend and later next week, which could bring  relief to stressed crops. Rainfall this week in Argentina's top  soy province revived wilting crops, but others were still in   need of rain, the agriculture ministry said. 
 
·         USDA's weekly export sales report showed net cancellations   of U.S. soybeans totaling 119,500 tonnes for 2012/13 and net  sales of 62,000 for 2013/14. The total for the combined   marketing years was the worst since March 2002.   
 
·         USDA reported export sales of soymeal for the week at  236,100 tonnes, topping trade expectations, and soyoil sales at 28,900 tonnes.
 
·         USDA also said private exporters reported sales of 410,000  tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China, but most of the total, 350,000  tonnes, was for delivery in 2013/14. 
 
·         Dock workers returned to work at Brazil's ports after a  six-hour strike in protest of the government's plan to privatize  hundreds of terminals. Workers decided to call off a second six-hour stoppage planned for Tuesday. 
 
·         Soyoil pressured by unconfirmed talk that China might release rape oil from reserves.
 
·         Despite the sell-off, CBOT March soybeans  ended the week up 36-3/4 cents, or 2.6 percent, halting a two-week  decline. March soymeal  rose 4.3 percent for the week while March soyoil fell 2.56 percent.

·         CBOT March options expired at the close. Traders said   heavy open interest in calls at the $15.00 strike may have  helped lift futures prices above that level in the early trade.


BMD CPO - KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures inched down in light trade on Friday, as lingering investor concern on the tropical oil's sluggish demand weighed on prices.

Seasonally slowing output in Malaysia, the No. 2 producer of the world's most consumed vegetable oil, is expected to help ease stockpiles in February but exports need to pick up faster.

Inventory levels, which have hovered above the 2.5 million tonne mark since October last year, finally edged down in January, but only by 1.9 percent to 2.58 million tonnes, compared with a bigger fall of 2.9 percent expected by traders.

"There is concern soft demand may persist in March, and traders ponder how much upside is left," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"Some consumers remain cautious about buying into the market until they see signs that palm oil demand is improving."

At the close, the benchmark May contract  on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange eased 0.2 percent to 2,532 ringgit ($817) per tonne, but still posted a weekly gain of 2 percent. Prices traded in a tight range between 2,527 and 2,555 ringgit on Friday.

Total traded volume stood at 18,939 lots of 25 tonnes each, below the typical 25,000 tonnes.

Strong output amid a tepid global economy and dry demand last year weighed on palm oil markets in Malaysia, causing prices to tumble 23 percent and record their biggest loss since the 2008 financial crisis.

But the lower prices have shifted demand towards palm oil that trades at a steep discount of almost $300 per tonne to competing soyoil. Malaysian palm oil is also currently the cheapest vegetable oil in the market after its government revamped export tax structures in the hope of spurring demand.

Brent crude oil rose more than $1 per barrel on Friday, recovering some ground after three days of heavy falls on worries over the state of the world economy.

In other vegetable oil markets, the U.S. soyoil for May delivery  crept up 0.5 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 0.6 percent higher.


Regional Equities - Feb 22 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks gained on Friday, recovering from sharp falls a day earlier, with foreign investors buying into equities in Indonesia and Malaysia amid hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve would not end its ultra-soft monetary policy prematurely.

Indonesia  gained 0.4 percent to close at a record high of 4,651.12, with a net foreign inflow of $108.85 million.

Malaysia , the region's worst performer this year, closed up 0.5 percent at a one-week high of 1622.08, with foreign investors buying a net $59.41 million in shares.

Thailand  ended 0.8 percent firmer, recovering sharp losses in the previous day as property and construction shares helped the overall index to gain.

Vietnam , the region's best performer so far which saw its highest daily fall in six months in the previous day, edged up 0.2 percent helped by late buying and a government assurance that it was ready for an intervention to keep domestic markets stable.

Singapore ended steady, while the Philippines , which outperformed the regional markets in the week, edged down 0.04 percent on profit taking.


FOREX - NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) - The euro hit a six-week low against the dollar on Friday after the European Central Bank said banks will repay less than half the expected amount of loans, while a downgrade of Britain's government bond rating pressured sterling.

The yen dropped against the dollar and euro, with many investors forecasting further weakness as the Bank of Japan looked set to ease monetary policy further to fight deflation.

Banks will repay 61.1 billion euros ($80.8 billion) of the second round of the ECB's three-year loans next week, far below the 130 billion euros in repayments expected by the market. The smaller amount suggested many banks are still dependent on the ECB.

"The smaller than expected payback of loans means the ECB’s balance sheet will shrink at a slower than expected pace," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington. It "further undermined confidence in the state of recovery in the 17-member bloc."