Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Trader's Comment: CPO futures recouped from yesterday’s losses on strong external factors.

CPO futures recouped from yesterday’s losses on strong external factors. Benchmark July09 climbed steadily through out the day and hit intra day high of 2698 in late trading before it finally settled RM55 higher at 2680. Positive external market had helped supporting local CPO market. Both eCBOT soy oil and Dalian palm traded more than 2% higher during Asian time trading. Furthermore, spill over buying interest from bullish equity market also helped to provide cushion to the local front. Analyst from Oil World had forecasted that CPO futures would continue to recover from last week sell-off caused by global flu fears. It is likely to stay firm due to low stocks concern. This had further enhanced traders confident in the result of upcoming MPOB supply & demand data. Daily volume remained good with 28,609 contracts changed hands.

Breaking News-RTRS-Palm oil prices to firm on low stocks - Oil World

HAMBURG, May 5 (Reuters) - Concern about low stocks is likely to keep palm oil futures firm, continuing a recovery after a sell-off last week largely caused by global flu fears, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday.
"There is the general expectation in the market that Malaysian palm oil stocks have continued to decline in April from the already very low end-March 2009 level of 1.36 million tonnes," Oil World said.
"We estimate stocks at around 1.3 million tonnes as of end-April, down steeply by around 1.0 million tonnes from the record level registered as of end-November 2008 and also sharply below the 1.79 million tonnes reported as of end April 2008."

Breaking News-RTRS-Oil World again cuts Argentina 2009 soy crop forecast

HAMBURG, May 5 (Reuters) - Hamburg-based oilseeds analyst Oil World again cut its forecast of Argentina's 2009 soybean crop, this time by two million tonnes, because of dry weather.
Argentina's 2009 soybean crop is now forecast at 34.50 million tonnes, down from 36.50 million forecast last week and from 46.7 million harvested in 2008.
The forecast is also 5.5 million tonnes lower than Oil World's April 14 estimate.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, May 5 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as cautious investors fretted about impending bank stress test results and energy shares succumbed to the pressure of lower oil prices.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dipped 16.09 points, or 0.19 percent, to 8,410.65 points. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> shed 3.44 points, or 0.38 percent, to 903.80. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> dipped 9.44 points, or 0.54 percent, to 1,754.12.

Also on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the three-year U.S. housing bust may be near a bottom and that he expected the recession to end this year, barring a relapse of the financial crisis. However, he also noted U.S. growth would remain subdued and unemployment high.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, May 5 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures snapped a four-day winning streak on Tuesday, retreating as traders positioned ahead of weekly inventory reports after hitting a 2009 intraday peak amid optimism about economic recovery.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude settled down 63 cents, or 1.16 percent, at $53.84 a barrel, trading from $53.50 to $54.83, where technical resistance was charted and eclipsing the previous 2009 peak of $54.66 struck
on March 26.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May up 3/4 cent per bushel at $11.16.

Tight stocks of soy support old-crop or nearby months while bull-spreading of July/November weighed on November amid expectations for increased soy plantings.

USDA late on Monday said 6 percent of the U.S. soy crop had been planted, below average trade estimates for 7-10 percent, up from 3 percent a week ago and below the 11 percent 5-year average.

CBOT-SOYOIL - May down 0.25 cent per lb at 37.69 cents per lb. Following the lower Asian trend and weakness in crude oil.

FCPO-JAKARTA, May 5 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures retreated on Tuesday after rising a day earlier to their highest in nine months amid renewed concerns that price rally could cut demand, despite of the current supply tightness situation, traders said.

The benchmark July contract dropped 77 ringgit, or 2.9 percent, to 2,625 ringgit per tonne ($748.29). Overall volume more than doubled the usual at 22,092 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-SINGAPORE, May 5 (Reuters) - Singapore stocks extended their
gains on Tuesday to new seven-month highs as hopes about the improvement in the global economy lifted the country's banks, airlines and some plantation shares.

Singapore's index <.FTSTI> finished 2.25 percent higher, with heavyweight bank DBS Group , Singapore Airlines , and Golden Agri posting strong gains.

In Kuala Lumpur, the stock index <.KLSE> ended 0.05 percent lower, dragged down by plantation firms like Sime Darby , which fell 0.75 percent and IOI Corp which lost nearly two percent of its value.

DJI Daily: Holding ground


Market was holding ground at 8400 mark and looks may continue its sideways to bias upside potential in near tern. Resistance and support remains at 8600-8700 and 8000 level respectively.

KLSE Daily: Remains firmly bullish


Overall daily technical outlook remains firmly bullish and market may continue to challenge the upside resistance at 1020-1030 in near term. To the downside, support is stood at 995-990.

FKLI Daily: Bull dominated


Bull continue to lead the market and likely to waltz higher. We continue to look for the upside resistance at 1030-1040. Downside support remains at 998-993.5 (gap left over on 4/5/2009).

FCPO Daily: Healthy correction is in place


A healthy correction was taking place after the recent bull run as market covered the full downside gap left over at 2679-2618. Overall technical landscape remained in bullish tone despite the negative closing. Thus, we are now looking for the upside resistance at 2798-2800.To the downside, support is pegged at 2600-2580 followed by 2500-2490.