Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK,  June 26 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks rose and the euro fell to its lowest level versus the U.S. dollar in over two weeks on Tuesday, as technical buying offset a near tripling in Spanish debt costs on doubts a European summit can ease the region's debt crisis.

Low expectations for the meeting in Brussels on Thursday and Friday helped drive Spanish short-term borrowing rates to their highest in more than six months when the country sold just over 3 billion euros ($3.8 billion) of three- and six-month debt.

In the United States, data pointed to a surprisingly strong April rise in home prices, boosting U.S. housing shares. The mildly encouraging figures on housing were mitigated by data signaling a deterioration in consumer confidence, which stoked concerns about slowing U.S. growth.

Anxiety over a global economic slowdown underpinned by the fiscal troubles in the euro zone led analysts to conclude any bounce in stock prices could be short-lived.

"This is a classic exhaustion rebound. The selling intensity was pretty high yesterday, and technically, we were due for a short-term rebound," said James Dailey, portfolio manager of TEAM Asset Strategy Fund in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

"But these gains are really unsustainable. I think we have entered the bear market cycle already, and these (gains) could disappear any minute."

Investors pared their safe-haven holdings in gold as well as U.S. and German government debt.

They bought Brent oil futures, which rose above $93 a barrel on a strike in Norway that threatened North Sea supply, expectations of falling U.S. crude inventory and rising tension over Syria. 

At the close, the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> edged up 32.47 points, or 0.26 percent, to 12,535.13. The S&P 500 Index gained 6.32 points, or 0.48 percent, to 1,320.04. The Nasdaq Composite rose 17.90 points, or 0.63 percent, to 2,854.06.


CBOT SOYBEAN, Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended lower as profit-taking and fund long liquidation halted a two-day,weather-driven rally, traders said.

* Most-active November soybeans unofficially fell 0.8 percent after setting a contract high at $14.38-3/4 per bushel. The contract on Monday burst through long-term chart resistance at $14.00 as traders fretted about stressful, dry U.S. weather.

* Funds hold a near record large net long position in CBOT soybeans, leaving the market vulnerable to occasional bouts of long liquidation.

* Meteorologists expect hot and dry conditions to persist in the U.S. Midwest next week, stressing corn and soybean plants. But the midday run of the computerized American weather model did indicate some rain. 

* Unlike corn, which faces an immediate threat to yield potential from crop stress, U.S. soybeans will not reach their key yield-determining phase until later this summer and may be able to recover from the current dry spell. 

* Trade expects USDA on Friday to raise its estimate of U.S. 2012 soybean acreage. The average estimate for U.S. soybean plantings among 19 analysts surveyed by Reuters was 75.5 million acres, up from USDA's March projection of 73.9 million.

* Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World raised its forecast of China's 2011/12 soybean imports to 57.9 million tonnes, up 1 million from last month. The figure would be up 5.6 million tonnes year-on-year. 

* Soymeal prices are likely to remain firm in coming months and tight global meal supplies after low South American soybean crops could open sudden export opportunities for Indian soymeal - Oil World.

FCPO - SINGAPORE, June 26 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures ended higher on Tuesday, supported by rising exports and concerns that drought in the United States could damage the soybean crop and limit global supplies of edible oils.

But gains were limited in a choppy trading session as investors turned sceptical ahead of a summit of European leaders later this week that looks unlikely to take concrete measures to solve the region's debt crisis.

"The market is trading in a tight range today, indicating traders were cautious and chose to stay on the sidelines ahead of the EU summit," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

Benchmark September palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange edged up 0.2 percent to close at 3,035 ringgit ($951) per tonne. Prices traded in a narrow range between 3,010 and 3,036 ringgit.

Traded volumes were thin at 16,908 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.

Malaysian palm oil exports grew 4.4 percent to 1.2 million tonnes in the first 25 days of the month from a month ago, said cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services, backed by higher shipments to China, India and Pakistan. 

Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance, said late on Monday that exports rose 8.8 percent, supporting views that demand is being helped by last-minute buying ahead of the Muslim fasting month starting in July.

Hot and dry weather in the United States continued to threaten to damage soybean crops and could possibly lead to a smaller supply of soybean oil, raising appeal of palm oil that is already trading at a steep discount.

Traders are also eyeing the U.S. Department of Agriculture's June acreage report for soybeans on Friday. The average soy estimate in a Reuters survey was 2.2 percent higher than USDA's March forecast.

Oil climbed towards $92 per barrel on Tuesday as the prospect of a decline in U.S. crude stockpiles offset concern that a meeting of European leaders would fail to resolve the region's debt crisis. 

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for July delivery lost 0.5 percent. 

The most active January 2013 soyoil contract on Dalian commodity exchange also lost 0.8 percent, after touching a more than one-month high the previous day. Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1012 GMT 

REGIONAL EQUITY - BANGKOK, June 26 (Reuters) - Stocks in Thailand and Indonesia eked out small gains on Tuesday after three straight losing sessions as investors bought recently beaten down energy-linked shares buoyed by a rebound in oil prices.

Thai SET index edged up 0.32 percent, led by the energy subindex which advanced 0.17 percent. Energy shares were down 1.7 percent in 2012 due to weak appetite for riskier assets and its exposure to weak global economy.

Jakarta's Composite Index rose 0.6 percent, with commodities shares contributing the most to the gains. Harum Energy Tbk rose 4.6 percent, while Adaro Energy jumped 4.5 percent.

Others in the region ended mixed. The Philippine main index extended its gains for a third session, adding 0.5 percent. Vietnam fell for a fourth session, ending 1.2 percent lower at its lowest close in three weeks.