Monday, August 10, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures rallied broadly higher as lower stocks outweigh poor export.

Palm oil futures rallied broadly higher as lower stocks outweigh poor export. The released of supply & demand data by MPOB which shows that stock level in July fell 5.67% to 1.32 million tones was significantly below market expectations as Reuters poll predicted a 3.7% decline to 1.35 million tones last week. Benchmark Oct09 rose steadily through out most of the sessions and hit intra day high of 2424 before it ended RM60 higher at 2400. Players had ignored the weak export data by private cargo surveyors ITS that had reported a decline of 12.6% on the first 10 days of Aug compared with last month corresponding period. On the other side, the bullish external vege oil markets also enhanced the buying activity in local BMD. Dalian palm ended strongly higher after it gained more than 4% while eCBOT soy oil also edged higher during Asian time trading.

Breaking News-RTRS-CORRECTED-China to hold new state soybean auctions on Aug.12

BEIJING, Aug 7 (Reuters) - China will hold a fourth round of state soybean auctions on August 12, with a planned release of 500,000 tonnes, on a par with last week's sale, the official National Grain and Oil Trade Centre said on Friday.
In three sales, China sold 4,900 tonnes of soybeans, or less than 1 percent of the amount on offer, as crushers are reluctant to buy the expensive soybean reserves.
Analysts said they expected the government to offer subisidies for soybeans soon, as plants in northeast regions have been suffering from crushing losses because of high soy prices.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 2-EU buyers stop US soy imports after GMO corn found

MADRID/WASHINGTON, Aug 6 (Reuters) - European Union buyers have voluntarily moved to stop imports of U.S. soy after shipments were found containing traces of genetically modified corn, a spokesman for the EU in Washington said on Thursday.
European trade sources said U.S. soybean meal shipments to Spain and Germany were found with traces of GMO corn, which is prohibited in the European Union.
"The industry has itself decided to stop all imports of U.S. soy, as of now," Mattias Sundholm told Reuters.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Aug 7 (Reuters) - World stocks ended higher on Friday, while bonds took a hit and the U.S. dollar recovered after better-than-expected U.S. unemployment data reinforced the view that the global economic slump may be nearly over.

The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 9.4 percent in July, the first fall in 15 months, while employers cut 247,000 jobs compared to a forecast of 320,000 based on a Reuters poll.

On Friday, the Dow and the S&P 500 ended at closing highs for 2009. Earlier this week, on Tuesday, the Nasdaq popped back above the 2,000 mark to end at 2,011.31 -- its 2009 closing high.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Aug 7 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended lower on Friday, as an encouraging government jobs report fueled big gains on the dollar, dampening interest in commodities.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, September crude settled down $1.01, or 1.4 percent, at $70.93 a barrel, trading from $70.55 to $72.84.

NYMEX September crude's session high was the highest since the $73.38 peak hit on June 30, itself the highest since the Oct. 21, 2008 intraday high of $75.69.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - CBOT August up 14 cents per bushel at $11.84-1/2. New-crop November up 8-1/2 at $10.38-1/2.

Supported by tight stocks of soy and hotter weather in the U.S. Midwest crop belt that led to concerns about potential harm to some of the soybean crop that is in its key pod-setting stage of development. Gains limited by firm dollar.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- CBOT August down 0.05 cent per lb at 36.78. Support from gains in soybeans but rally capped by weak crude oil and firm dollar.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures inched up 0.7 percent on Friday as some investors took positions with an eye to potentially bullish vegetable oil stocks data in the Southeast Asian country due next week.

The benchmark October contract on Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange settled up 16 ringgit at 2,341 ringgit ($668.8), just 0.7 percent off a seven-week high hit on Wednesday.

Industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board will issue July palm oil data on Monday at 0430 GMT. Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance will unveil Aug. 1-10 on the same day.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Singapore's main share index <.FTSTI> fell 2 percent on Friday, leading other Southeast Asian stock markets lower, as top bank DBS tumbled after it reported rising bad debts in the second quarter.

DBS , Southeast Asia's biggest bank, lost 3.5 percent after a spike in bad debts overshadowed better-than-expected net profits. But the outlook for the bank
has improved as it continues to seize market share from foreign rivals on loans.

Malaysia's index <.KLSE> inched up 0.08 percent, Indonesia's index <.JKSE> lost 0.5 percent, Thailand's <.SETI> dropped 0.8 percent, the Philippine index <.PSI> fell 2.1 percent and Vietnam's <.VNI> edged down 0.16 percent.

In Kuala Lumpur, Genting fell 1.6 percent while palm plantation firms fell along with weak palm oil futures, with Sime Darby down 0.6 percent and IOI Corp down 0.4 percent.

DJI Weekly: Gaining upward momentum


Market is gaining its upward momentum after forming base at 9000 levels. Hence, market looks may slowing inching higher and may want to challenge its upside resistance at 9600-9800 in near term.

KLSE Weekly: May challenge 1200-1220.


Overall technical landscape remains strong and looks market may likely to challenge 1200-1220 in near term. To the downside, support is pegged at 1160-1150.

FKLI Weekly: No sign of reversing


Bulls continue to inch higher without showing any sign of tiredness. Hence, we maintain our bullish view in near term with upside resistance and downside support is at 1200 and 1160-1150 level respectively.

FCPO Weekly: Good Closing


A good closing for the week had strengthen further the immediate technical landscape to bias sideways to upside potential in near term. Therefore, we adjusted our upside projection to 2450-2460. To the downside, support is pegged at 2100.