Friday, August 14, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures ended sharply lower after a volatile trading day.

Palm oil futures ended sharply lower after a volatile trading day. Benchmark Oct09 began to fall lower through out the morning session after opened RM33 lower at 2482, following the sharp losses in overnight CBOT soy oil. It hit intra day low of 2424 before morning closed at 2431. The emerged of some aggressive buyers led palm oil futures to gap up higher during second session opening and continue to surge strongly until it hit intra day high at 2510. Nevertheless, it encountered strong resistance at above 2500 level as prices then started to fall again until it finally settled RM74 lower at 2441. External markets were mix as eCBOT soy oil inched higher after recovering from its earlier losses while Dalian palm ended with more than 2% losses.

Breaking News-RTRS-Malaysian palm stocks may hit 4-month low -minister

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil stocks are likely to stay flat at 1.35 million tonnes in August, hitting a four-month low, as demand rises and output falters on drier weather brought by El Nino, a minister said on Friday.
Commodities Minister Bernard Dompok was cited by state news agency Bernama as saying low stocks in the second largest palm oil producer in the world would further boost benchmark Malaysian prices , which are up 43 percent so far this year.

Breaking News-RTRS-U.S. soy processors seen extending downtime

CHICAGO, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Some U.S. soy processors are expected to take additional seasonal maintenance downtime in the coming weeks due to a lack of old-crop soybean supplies and the high cost for what's left, soy dealers said on Thursday.
"The way the supply of beans is, they don't have a choice -- buy the beans you can crush between now and new-crop (harvest), and just shut it down," a soy dealer in Kansas City said. "They're sweeping the bottom of the bins out here."
At least six soy processors are taking downtime in August, in some cases shutting down for the entire month. Other processors scheduled seasonal maintenance last month.

Breaking News-RTRS-NOPA July US soybean crush pegged at 130.4 mln bu

CHICAGO, Aug 13 (Reuters) - National Oilseed Processors Association monthly crush data to be issued Friday morning should show a July U.S. soybean crush near 130.4 million bushels, analysts said Thursday.
Trade estimates ranged from 123.5 million to 136 million bushels, compared with NOPA's June soy crush figure of 133.1 million bushels.
Analysts expected NOPA to cut its soyoil stocks figure by about 100 million lbs from its June stocks figure of 2.907 billion lbs.

Breaking News-RTRS-India's oilseed sowing drops, sugarcane static

NEW DELHI, Aug 13 (Reuters) - India's oilseeds sowing from June 1 to Aug 13 was 15.2 million hectares, down from 16.4 million hectares a year ago because of erratic monsoon rains, government data showed on Thursday.
Soybean planting was higher but groundnut sowing fell, the government said in a statement.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Aug 13 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Thursday as better-than-expected earnings by Wal-Mart Stores Inc helped offset disappointing government numbers on retail sales and jobs.

Shares of Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, gained 2.7 percent to $51.88 following its second-quarter earnings and its outlook for the full year.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 36.58 points, or 0.39 percent, to 9,398.19. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 6.92 points, or 0.69 percent, to 1,012.73. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> added 10.63 points, or 0.53
percent, to 2,009.35.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Aug 13 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended higher but well below the session peaks, tracking Wall Street, where major indexes sagged late as the day's economic data raised investor concerns about the pace of recovery.

Crude futures were up earlier on Wall Street's gains and on news of a surprise return to economic growth in Germany and France.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, September crude settled up 36 cents, or 0.51 percent, at $70.52 a barrel, trading from $70.05 to $72.21.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- August down 28-3/4 cents at $11.87-1/4 a bushel; new-crop November down 25-1/4 cents at $10.18-3/4.

Fell 2 percent on profit-taking, good U.S. crop weather and unwinding of soy/corn spreads. Rallied to six-week high in early dealings, then plunged as August contract volatile ahead of expiration on Friday.

Demand for nearby soy stays hot, with exporter paying top premiums to meet commitments while processor margins slip.

NOPA July US soybean crush to be released on Friday and analyst average estimate is for 130.4 million bushels, compared with NOPA June soy crush 133.1 million.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- August down 0.93 cent at 37.54 cents per lb. Big supply of soyoil weighs.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded more than 2 percent on Thursday as investors covered short positions on expectations of lower production this month and a recovery in crude oil, traders said.

The benchmark October contract on Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange ended up 55 ringgit, or 2.24 percent at 2,515 ringgit ($716.52) a tonne after going as high as 2,521 ringgit. Overall volume was 20,657 lots of 25 tonnes each, more than double the usual 10,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Singapore's stock market climbed
to its highest in a week on Thursday as earnings optimism pushed big caps such as City Developments higher, and other Southeast Asian bourses surged, palm plantation stocks leading the way.

Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> ended up 1.7 percent at 2,614.18, with City Developments , Southeast Asia's number-two developer, pushed up 1.9 percent by its positive outlook despite a 15 percent fall in quarterly profit.

Shares in Wilmar International surged 7 percent following a jump in palm oil prices this week. Golden Agri-Resources added 7.4 percent and Indofood Agri-Resources 5.6 percent.

Even so, Malaysia's IOI Corp rose 1.6 percent, Thailand's United Palm Oil gained 4 percent and Indonesia's Astra Agro Lestari rose 2.5 percent.

Malaysia's index <.KLSE> was up 0.5 percent, Thailand's <.SETI> gained nearly 2 percent to its highest since last September, Indonesia's index <.JKSE> rose 2.1 percent, the Philippine index <.PSI> rose 1 percent and Vietnam's <.VNI> 1.3 percent.

FKLI Daily: Stuck in sideways


Nothing much excitement from the immediate daily technical landscape as price remains in tight rangy mode. Thus, we continue to look for the upside resistance at 1189.5. To the downside, support is pegged at 1170 followed by 1158.5.

NYMEX Crude Daily: Holding


Market is holding ground to survive at above 70. Thus, market may continue to move in sideways manner in the range of 72.84 to 73.38 and 68.84 to 68.71.

CBOT Soyoil Daily:May enter to a correction zone


Market reversed to end lower with a black candle printed had slowing down the upward move. Thus, market may enter into a correction zone in near term. As for now, we are looking for the upside resistance at 39.00 to 39.20. Downside support is stood at 37.40-37.20 followed by 36.50-36.25

FCPO Daily: Tested 2500 mark


Bulls shy away to close off the high at 2500 mark had beautified the overall daily technical landscape. We may see more upside potential if market manage to breakout from the immediate resistance at 2525-2530. The next resistance will be looking at 2585-2600. Currently, downside support is pegged at 2410-2380.

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures rallied broadly higher to hit new recent high at above 2500 level on the back of external factors.

Palm oil futures rallied broadly higher to hit new recent high at above 2500 level on the back of external factors. Initially, Benchmark Oct09 hit the morning high at 2487 after opened RM7 higher at 2467 but immediately met some resistance from some profit takers, it then came down and hovered between 2468-2446 through out the morning session. However, as Asian time NYMEX crude oil continue to surge to more than 2% higher, this caused local BMD to follow suit. Benchmark Oct09 began to rally strongly higher in the second session until broke the psychological resistance level of 2500. It hit intra day high of 2521 before ended RM55 higher at 2515. Daily volume was also high with a total of 20,657 contracts changed hands.