Thursday, April 30, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures ended with triple digit gains after rallied strongly on pre-long weekend covering.

Palm oil futures ended with triple digit gains after rallied strongly on pre-long weekend covering. The released of end April export data which is within market expectation further enhanced traders’ belief that palm oil end stock for the month of April will likely to draw down further. Market sentiment was very bullish today as CPO market resumed from its weekly bull run after digesting the swine flu fears since the beginning of this week. Benchmark July09 opened RM31 higher at 2511 and rallied all the way up through out the day. It hit intra day high of 2618 before it finally ended RM115 higher at 2595. Bullish external markets coupled with pre-long weekend short covering had boosted the buying sentiment in local CPO market. Daily volume increased tremendously to 32,076 contracts changed hands.

CPO Tender Summary and Delivery Location as at April 2009

Breaking News-RTRS-Malaysia rates unchanged, easing may be over

KUALA LUMPUR, April 29 (Reuters) - Malaysia's central bank kept its key rate unchanged on Wednesday, against expectations of a Reuters poll, in a move that analysts said signalled it may pause after cuts totalling 150 basis points.
The overnight policy rate was kept steady at 2 percent after a 50 basis point cut in February, the last rate setting meeting, contrary to analyst forecasts of a 25 basis point cut according to a Reuters poll.

Breaking News-RTRS-China cancelling soy cargoes as margins fall-trade

BEIJING/SINGAPORE, April 29 (Reuters) - Chinese soybean buyers have cancelled up to five U.S. soybean cargoes in the past few days because plentiful imports are squeezing crushing margins, traders said on Wednesday.
"We heard some 4-5 cargoes for June, July and August shipment were cancelled. Crushing margins have fallen a lot recently," said one Beijing-based trading manager with an international trading house.
Some of the traders contacted by Reuters said they had no direct knowledge of the actual cancellations, and gave varying estimates of the number of cargoes that had been cancelled.
Another trading manager said he had also heard of similar amount of cancellations but could not confirm the details, while several sources put the number of shipments at two or three.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, April 29 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks climbed on Wednesday after grim growth data offered hints of future expansion, a prospect reinforced by the Federal Reserve's hopeful comments.

Gross domestic product dropped at a 6.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter, but the data showed consumer spending rose and a decline in inventories suggested
manufacturers and retailers will have to stock up in merchandise.

The central bank backed up the positive sentiment when its policy meeting concluded and the Fed said the economic outlook had improved modestly since its last meeting in March.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 168.78 points, or 2.11 percent, to 8,185.73. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 18.48 points, or 2.16 percent, to 873.64. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> gained 38.13 points, or 2.28 percent, to 1,711.94.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, April 29 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended higher on Wednesday, backed by a rebound on Wall Street and as traders shrugged off a large build in crude stocks and banked instead on a bigger-than-forecast drawdown in gasoline stocks.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude settled up $1.05, or 2.1 percent, at $50.97 a barrel, trading from $49.12 to $51.42.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May up 44-1/2 cents at $10.34 per bushel. New-crop November up 32-1/2 at $9.32-1/2.

Rebounding from the swine flu-induced plunge on Monday. Support from tight U.S. soy stocks and disappointing South American harvest along with higher crude, stock markets and softer dollar.

Overhanging market was talk that China canceled up to five U.S. cargoes of soybeans amid softer crush margins.

CBOT-SOYOIL - May up 0.53 cent at 35.43 cents per lb. Higher soybeans and crude oil boosts soyoil.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, April 29 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures gained 1 percent on Wednesday, bouncing off one-week lows earlier in the session, as investors shifted focus from swine flu to expectations of higher demand.

The benchmark July contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled up 24 ringgit at 2,480 ringgit ($690) a tonne after going as low as 2,413, a level unseen since April 21.

Other traded months ranged between a 10 ringgit fall and gains of up to 35 ringgit <0#KPO:>. Overall volume more than doubled to 24,260 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, April 29 (Reuters) - Singapore, Thai and Malaysian
stocks rebounded on Wednesday as investors bought back blue chips, betting that a swine flu outbreak would be contained and cheered by some improvement in U.S. economic data.

Southeast Asian countries have so far reported no cases of the flu, which has caused more than 150 deaths in Mexico.

Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> recovered 2.28 percent, a day after falling to a near three-week low, while Thai stocks <.SETI> closed up 2.28 percent at their highest level since Oct. 13, 2008.

Malaysian shares <.KLSE> rose 0.18 percent, Indonesian stocks <.JKSE> rose 3.02 percent to a one-week high and Vietnam <.VNI> rose 1.88 percent, but Philippine shares <.PSI> fell for the third day, down 0.12 percent.

DJI Daily: Remain sideways


Market shows its effort to test the immediate resistance at 8100-8200 level. Nevertheless, it was not enough to change the current immediate outlook in sideways mode. Thus, we continue to look for the resistance at 8300-8400. While, downside remains at 7700.

KLSE Daily: Consolidation mode to be continue


Market likely to consolidate in near term. We are now looking for upside resistance at 975-980. Meanwhile, downside support is pegged at 950-936.

FKLI Daily: struggle to survive


Market recovered a little after straight two days losses. As for now, we look for the upside resistance at 980-990. While, downside support is pegged at 950.

FCPO Daily: 2400 mark defended well


Market manage to recover a little following 2400 mark defended well. W continue to look for the upside resistance at 2530-2535 (unfill gap left over since 27/4/2009). To the downside, immediate support is pegged at 2400-2370.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures recovered from yesterday’s losses on late covering after choppy trading in earlier session.

Palm oil futures recovered from yesterday’s losses on late covering after choppy trading in earlier session. Prices were very volatile in the morning session as Benchmark July immediately retreated sharply to intra day low of 2413 after opened at 2479. It managed to bounce back to 2457 but was further sold down again and closed at 2414 before lunch break. Price movement became more “friendly” in the afternoon session as Benchmark July09 open slightly higher at 2444 and started to hover between 2450-2470 level. The emerged of late covering activities pushed prices to intra day high of 2490 before it finally settled RM24 higher at 2480. Traders were still cautiously waiting for tomorrow’s end-April export data although there had been market talk that export figure could be around 1.2 million tones. Dalian palm regained from earlier losses to end higher while eCBOT soy oil also edged higher today. Daily volume remained good with 24,260 contracts changed hands.

Breaking News-RTRS-Oil World cuts Argentine, Brazil soy crop forecast

HAMBURG, April 28 (Reuters) - Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World again cut its forecasts for soybean crops in Argentina and Brazil on Tuesday which it said would raise global demand for U.S. supplies.
Argentina's 2009 soybean crop was now forecast at 36.50 million tonnes from 46.7 million tonnes in 2008.
This is down 0.5 million tonnes from its estimate on April 21 and down by 3.5 million tonnes from its April 14 estimate.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, April 28 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as fresh worries that major banks may need to raise more money offset more reassuring economic data that suggested the worst may be over and a big dividend boost from IBM.

Worries also lingered over the economic impact from the threat of a flu pandemic, as New Zealand and Israel were the latest countries to confirm cases of a new strain of flu linked to dozens of deaths in Mexico.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> slipped 8.05 points, or 0.10 percent, to 8,016.95. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> dropped 2.35 points, or 0.27 percent, to 855.16. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> declined 5.60 points, or 0.33 percent, to 1,673.81.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, April 28 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures were down in post-settlement trading on Wednesday after inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute showed domestic crude stocks rose much more than expected last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1700 p.m. EDT (2100 GMT), June crude was down 85 cents, or 1.7 percent, at $49.29 a barrel. It earlier settled down 22 cents, or 0.44 percent, at $49.92, trading from $48.55 to $50.19.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- May down 15-1/4 cents at $9.89-1/2 per bushel.

Talk of slowdown in U.S. export sales of soybeans including talk China backing away from U.S. soy weighing on market in addition to unwinding of old-crop/new-crop spreads.

Talk China cancelled 4-5 cargoes of U.S. soy.

USDA said 3 percent of the U.S. soybean crop had been seeded, below the 5 percent five-year average but in line with trade expectations for 3 percent.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- May down 0.64 cent at 34.90 cents per lb. Pressured by lower soybeans and lower crude oil.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, April 28 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures dropped 1 percent on Tuesday as weaker vegetable oil markets priced in fears that the outbreak of swine flu in Mexico would reduce demand for meat and grains.

Palm oil prices made strong gains earlier in the trading session, crossing the 2,500 ringgit ($690.6) level as expectations of strong demand and tight supplies lifted the market.

The benchmark July contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 25 ringgit to settle at 2,456 ringgit ($678.4) per tonne by after going as high as 2,530 ringgit.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, April 28 (Reuters) - Singapore shares fell for a third day to near three-week lows on Tuesday, leading declines in Southeast Asian stocks in a market unnerved by worries about the potential economic fallout from a swine flu outbreak.

Singapore's benchmark index <.FTSTI> eased 0.6 percent, recovering some of an earlier 1.5 percent loss to its lowest since April 8, while Malaysia's stock index <.KLSE> dropped 1.5 percent and Thailand's SET index <.SETI> slid 0.5 percent.

Asian stocks elsewhere declined for a second day, with investors fretting not only about swine flu but also the results of U.S. bank stress tests, especially after a report that Bank of America and Citigroup might need still more capital.

DJI Daily: too little


Market continue its sideways move. Thus, we continue to look for the resistance at 8100-8200. While, downside support is pegged at 7700 followed by 7500-7400 level.

KLSE Daily: Say bye bye to 1000 mark


Immediate daily technical landscape hurt by straight two days losses. Market looks have to say goodbye to 1000 mark and correction likely to extend in near term. We are now looking for upside resistance at 996. Meanwhile, downside support is pegged at 958-950.

FKLI Daily: Bearish reversal confirmed


Another day of sharp losses had dampened the early bullish picture. Thus, market is likely to move sideways to downside potential in near term following bearish reversal sign is confirmed. As for now, we look for the upside resistance at 1003. While, downside support is pegged at 960-950

FCPO Daily: Losing upward momentum


Upward momentum weakened further after market fail to cover the full upside gap left over at 2514-2535 and close in negative territory. Thus, market may move sideways to downside potential in near term. As for now, we are looking for the upside resistance at 2530-2535 (unfill gap left over since 27/4/2009). To the downside, immediate support is pegged at 2420-2400 followed by 2320-2300.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Trader's Comment: CPO futures ended lower after trading in a choppy manner.

CPO futures ended lower after trading in a choppy manner. Benchmark July09 had failed to fully cover its previous day left over gap as it only climbed to intra day high of 2530 after opened at 2490. Prices then began to ease off due to lack of follow through buying and slid to intra day low at 2422 after second session resumed. The emerged of some bargain hunting activities had managed to support CPO prices. Benchmark July09 bounced back to 2494 before it eased off again to settled RM25 lower at 2456. Market sentiment was filled with uncertainty, as traders were still concern of the outbreak of swine flu in Mexico. Both eCBOT soy oil and Dalian palm edged lower today during Asian time trading. Daily volume also reduced slightly to 16,596 contracts changed hands.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, April 27 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Monday on concerns the spreading of a new strain of flu could dampen optimism about the economy, overshadowing a sweeping overhaul of General Motors Corp and gains in biotechnology stocks.

The three major U.S. stock indexes slid in choppy trade as governments around the world moved to contain the spread of a swine flu outbreak that has killed up to 149 people in Mexico and spread to the United States and Canada.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 51.29 points, or 0.64 percent, to 8,025.00. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> dropped 8.72 points, or 1.01 percent, to 857.51. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> shed 14.88 points, or 0.88
percent, to 1,679.41.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, April 27 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended lower on Monday, eating up a large part of gains made on Friday, on concerns about the potential impact of a global swine flu outbreak on oil demand and a stronger dollar.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude settled down $1.41, or 2.74 percent, at $50.14 a barrel, trading from $48.01 to $51.45.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May down 35-1/2 cents at $10.04-3/4 per bushel.

Potential for cut in feed use by livestock industry if swine flu continues to spread, reducing meat production and weighing on soybean futures.

Trade expecting USDA late on Monday to show U.S. soybean seedings 3 percent, below five-year average of around 4 percent.

CBOT-SOYOIL - May down 0.80 cent at 35.54 cents per lb. Weighed down by swine flu jitters and lower crude oil.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, April 27 (Reuters) - Asian vegetable oil markets slid on Monday as concerns spread over an outbreak of swine flu in Mexico reduced meat and grains demand.

Malaysian crude palm oil futures <0#KPO:> fell as much as 4.3 percent. U.S soyoil for May shipment fell 4.5 percent and the most-active September soyoil contract on Dalian's Commodity Exchange slid 4.9 percent in late Asian hours.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, April 27 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock
markets fell on Monday, with Singapore touching a near 3-week low and Malaysia snapping a three-day rally as investors worried about the impact of a growing swine flu outbreak.

The main Singapore index <.FTSTI> closed down 1.9 percent after earlier falling 3 percent to its lowest since April 8. Malaysia <.KLSE> dropped 1.3 percent after rising 3.8 percent over the past three days.

Indonesia <.JKSE> fell for a fifth day, down nearly 1 percent, while the Philippines <.PSI> eased 0.9 percent after a 1.7 percent rise on Friday.

DJI Daily: Still the same


Market continue its sideways move. Thus, we continue to look for the resistance at 8100-8200. While, downside support is pegged at 7700 followed by 7500-7400 level.

KLSE Daily: Missed the 1000 mark


Market looks missed the 1000 mark upside target following a long black candle printed. Thus, market may due for correction in near term. We are now looking for upside resistance at 996-1000. Meanwhile, downside support is pegged at 968-966 (gap left over on 22/4/2009).

FKLI Daily: Dark cloud cover


Market gave up all its early gains after hitting the fresh year high at 1003. Dark cloud cover shows sign of bearish reversal. Thus, market may slow down its upside move to bias sideways to downside potential in near term. As for now, we look for the upside resistance at 1003. While, downside support is pegged at 965-960.

FCPO Daily: Retracement


Market retraced after hitting the recent high at 2648 with a gap down. However, immediate daily technical outlook remains positive provided underline support at 2320-2300 continue to cushion. As for now, we are looking for the upside resistance at 2514-2535 (gap left over on 27/4/2009) followed by 2586-2600. To the downside, immediate support is pegged at 2420-2400.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Trader's Comment: CPO futures fell sharply lower on spill over from eCBOT soy oil collapse due to swine flu spread concern.

CPO futures fell sharply lower on spill over from eCBOT soy oil collapse due to swine flu spread concern. Benchmark July09 immediately gapped down RM85 lower to open at 2500 and thereafter trading in a range between 2514-2471 for the rest of the day before it finally settled RM104 lower at 2481. Global vege oil market were hit hard today as speculation that the outbreak of swine flu in Mexico that may have spread overseas, could jeopardize government effort to end global recession and reduce demand prospects for livestock feed. Dalian palm dropped to daily limit of 5% while eCBOT soy oil also tumbled more than 4%. Generally, the overall market was still supportive as traders are confident on palm oil and believe that end stocks still low and tight. Daily volume remained heavy with total 20,253 contracts changed hands.

Breaking News-(BN) Malaysia Raises Foreign Limits as Najib Opens Economy (Update)

April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysia raised foreign ownership limits at non-commercial banks and will let in more overseas lenders as Prime Minister Najib Razak attempts to soften the economic slowdown and offset a slump in investment.
Overseas investors will be able to own 70 percent of local insurers, Islamic and investment banks, and sellers of Shariah- compliant insurance, up from 49 percent, Najib said today at his office in Putrajaya, outside Kuala Lumpur. Malaysia will issue three new licenses to foreign banks in 2011, he said.

Breaking News-RTRS-China warns over high soy, rapeseed imports-MOFCOM

BEIJING, April 24 (Reuters) - China's commerce ministry warned on Friday about potential risks as China's soybean and rapeseed imports in April approach record levels.
The large imports may cause an oversupply in the country because harvesting is about to begin for the new domestic rapeseed crop, while demand for cheaper palmoil is expected to pick up as the weather gets warmer.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, April 24 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rallied on Friday as earnings showed companies have weathered the recession and economic data raised hopes the economic cycle may have hit a bottom.

Investors were also undeterred by a government release of a much anticipated concept paper on stress tests for the 19 biggest U.S. financial services companies.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> added 119.23 points, or 1.50 percent, to 8,076.29. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> rose 14.31 points, or 1.68 percent, to 866.23. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> gained 42.08 points, or 2.55 percent, to 1,694.29.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, April 24 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended higher on Friday for the fourth day in a row as Wall Street extended gains and as a weaker dollar attracted commodities buyers.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude settled at $51.55 a barrel, up $1.93, or 3.89 percent, after trading from $49.06 to $51.75. From a week ago, front-month prices were up $1.22, or 2.4 pct. For the year, prices were up $6.95, or 15.6 percent.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May up 2-1/2 cents at $10.40-1/4 per bushel.

Tight soy stocks, strong exports, weak dollar and higher equities support. Gains limited by profit-taking and consolidation trade after the soy market on Thursday rallied to technical resistance area at 200-day moving averages, then faltered.

Trade expects USDA late on Monday to show U.S. soybean seeding progress 3 percent complete, down from 4 percent average pace.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- May up 0.14 cent at 36.34 cents per lb. Firm crude oil and gains in Asian trade palm oil lend support.

FCPO-JAKARTA, April 24 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures edged up to a 34-week high on Friday on expectations that data due out Monday would show good palm oil exports during the first 25 days of April, traders said.

The benchmark July contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended up 5 ringgit, or 0.2 percent, at 2,585 ringgit ($721.46), the strongest closing level since August 29.

The benchmark contract hit an intraday low of 2,535 ringgit and a high of 2,648 ringgit, a level not seen since August 25.

Other traded months rose between 3 and 48 ringgit. <0#KPO:> Overall volume was more than double the usual level at 23,396 lots of 25 tonnes each.
basic charges. [nMAN172576]

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, April 24 (Reuters) - Singapore shares <.FTSTI> fell
on Friday, hurt by a plunge in first-quarter earnings from CapitaLand ,while Thai stocks <.SETI> rose after a 12-day state of emergency was lifted.

Other Southeast Asian markets were mixed. Malaysia <.KLSE> rose for a third day, up 1.43 percent to its highest since Oct. 7, but Indonesia <.JKSE> drifted 0.09 percent to an eight-day low and Vietnam <.VNI> fell 1.68 percent.

The Philippine market <.PSI> closed up 1.7 percent at a six-month high, helped by a jump in Manila Electric Co of 11.8 percent after the regulator said the firm could raise its basic charges.

DJI Weekly: Remains sideway


Market remains sideways. Thus, we maintain the upside resistance and downside support at 8300-8400 and 7500-7400 level respectively.

KLSE Weekly: Likely to challenge 1000 mark


Market violated 973-993 level and looks may want to challenge the next resistance at 1000-1015. To the downside, support remains at 936.

FKLI Weekly: Strengthen further


Market hits 1000 mark before closing with good ending for the week had added more strength to the immediate technical landscape. Thus, we maintain positive towards the near term market. We are now looking for the upside resistance at 1030-1040. Downside support is pegged at 940-935

FCPO Weekly: Bullish tone remains firm


Market extended its winning streak for the straight fourth week. Bullish tone remains firm and steady following resistance at 2550-2600 was violated. As for now, we look for the immediate upside resistance at 2665-2675 followed by 2700-2750. While, downside support is pegged at 2300-2275.

Friday, April 24, 2009

Trader's Comment: CPO futures ended off the high after hitting 2648 level but remained in positive territory.

CPO futures ended off the high after hitting 2648 level but remained in positive territory. Profit taking activities initially took place in the morning trade as Benchmark July09 hovering at a lower level between 2565-2535 through out the morning session. However, buyers became aggressive in the second session when prices suddenly shoot up sharply and broke above 2600 level. It then surged to the intra day high of 2648 before it finally slid again to settle RM5 higher at 2585. Market talk that the next export data for the period of 1-25April may hit 970k tones had further enhanced speculative buying in BMD. Traders’ beliefs that palm oil stocks continue to be at lower level relative to demand still stood firm.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-Indonesia keeps May palm oil export tax at zero

JAKARTA, April 24 (Reuters) - Indonesia retained its zero percent palm oil export tax in May, while raising the crude palm oil base export price to $560 per tonne from $515 per tonne in April, a trade ministry official said on Friday.

Breaking News--RTRS-India may import record veg oils in 2008/09-trade

NEW DELHI, April 23 (Reuters) - India's vegetable oil imports, which have surged in the past few months, are expected to rise further in April and May and take purchases to a record in the year to October, a leading trade body said on Thursday.
Vegetable oil imports were expected to touch an all-time high of 7.5 million tonnes in 2008/09, 19 percent more than the current record of 6.3 million tonnes in 2007/08, Ashok Sethia, president of the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA), said in a statement.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, April 23 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose in volatile trade on Thursday as better-than-expected results from several regional banks lifted financial shares,
overshadowing disappointing economic data and anemic outlooks from economic bellwethers like United Parcel Service.

But investors wrestled with the possibility that the federal government's "stress tests" on 19 major U.S. banks may reveal weaknesses, which created volatility throughout the session. The government is set to unveil results on May 4.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 70.49 points, or 0.89 percent, to 7,957.06. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> rose 8.37 points, or 0.99 percent, to 851.92. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> added 6.09 points, or 0.37 percent, to 1,652.21.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, April 23 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended higher on Thursday as Wall Street climbed back up and the weakened dollar attracted investors' money to commodities such as oil.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude settled up 77 cents, or 1.58 percent, at $49.62 a barrel, trading from $48.37 to $49.92.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May down 8-1/4 cents per bushel at $10.37-3/4 per bushel.

Profit-taking and corn/soy spreading weighed on soybean futures in late dealings. Wet weather in the Midwest led to ideas for lower corn acreage and higher soybean acreage.

U.S. Census Bureau said U.S. soy crush in March 144.66 million bushels, above average estimate for 144.2 million.

CBOT-SOYOIL - May up 0.11 cent per lb at 36.20 cents per lb. Following higher palm oil futures.

U.S. Census Bureau said U.S. soyoil stocks at the end of March 3.064 billion lbs, below average estimate for 3.110 billion.

FCPO-JAKARTA, April 23 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures rose 4.2 percent on Thursday to its highest finishing in eight and a half months, fuelled by escalating fears over supply tightness, traders said.

The benchmark July contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 105 ringgit to 2,580 ringgit ($712.70), the strongest closing level since August 29.

Other traded months rose between 15 and 98, except for the August contract, which fell 90 ringgit. <0#KPO:> Overall volume was more than triple the usual level at 33,490 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, April 23 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian shares ended mixed on Thursday, unsettled by worries over the banking sector and corporate earnings, but Singapore and Thailand snapped recent falls, helped by appetite for commodity-linked shares.

Thai stocks <.SETI> led advancers, rising 1.2 percent. Malaysia <.KLSE>, Southeast Asia's second-best performer this year after Indonesia, climbed 1.04 percent but Vietnamese stocks <.VNI> lost 2.07 percent.

DJI Daily: stuck in sideways


Immediate daily technical landscape nothing much improved as market remains in sideways move. We continue to look for the resistance at 8100-8200. While, downside support is pegged at 7700 followed by 7500-7400 level.

KLSE Daily: inching higher


Market continue to inch higher. We maintain the upside resistance 980-985. Meanwhile, downside support is pegged at 968-966 (gap left over on 22/4/2009).

FKLI Daily: eyeing 1000 mark


Bull shows the power and continue to strike. Market looks is eyeing 1000 mark. While, downside support is pegged at 965-960.

FCPO Daily: ends of consolidation mode


Market ended the consolidation mode following prices violated 2540 level convincingly. This may indicate more upside room for near term market. As for now, we are looking for the upside resistance at 2600-2675. To the downside, support is pegged at 2420-2400.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Trader's Comment: CPO futures furiously broke above 2500 level on late trading and rallied strongly to 7 month high.

CPO futures furiously broke above 2500 level on late trading and rallied strongly to 7 month high with triple digit gains on record volume. Benchmark July09 initially climbed slowly after second session opened but gradually became more aggressive. 2500 level was then easily broken and this triggered a wave of panic covering activities. Buyers became more furious and pushed Benchmark July09 to the high of 2586 before it finally settled RM105 higher at 2580. External vege oil market also follow suit as they erased their early losses to trade higher in late trading. Daily volume had hit the all time high with 33,490 contracts changed hands.

Breaking News-RTRS-Russian palm imports to halve on higher tax -trade

KUALA LUMPUR, April 22 (Reuters) - Russia, a rising vegetable oil buyer, may halve imports of palm oil to 420,000 tonnes this year after it doubles an import tariff from June to protect domestic producers, Malaysian traders said on Wednesday.
The Russian Dairy Union had earlier said imports of tropical oils were usually above 900,000 tonnes over the last five years, with palm oil comprising the bulk of the shipments.

Breaking News-RTRS-Argentine soy output seen at 36.2 mln T - exchange

BUENOS AIRES, April 22 (Reuters) - Argentina's 2008/09 soy harvest is seen falling to 36.2 million tonnes, less than the previous estimate of 37 million tonnes, Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Wednesday.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, April 22 (Reuters) - The Dow and S&P fell on Wednesday after Morgan Stanley revived concerns about the banking sector and the wider economy after it posted its second straight quarterly loss and slashed its dividend.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 82.99 points, or 1.04 percent, to 7,886.57. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> slid 6.53 points, or 0.77 percent, to 843.55. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> gained 2.27 points, or 0.14 percent, to 1,646.12.

NYMEX-
NEW YORK, April 22 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended higher on Wednesday, taking a cue from Wall Street, which gained on positive corporate outlooks and as energy traders shrugged off government data showing a larger-than-expected build in domestic crude stocks last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, front-month June crude settled up 30 cents, or 0.62 percent, at $48.85 a barrel, trading from trading from $47.70 to $49.09.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May up 8 cents at $10.46 a bushel.

Old-crop contracts boosted by strong Chinese buying of U.S. soy and disappointing Argentine soy harvest. New-crop contracts, with November down 7 cents at $9.24, on prospects for U.S. soybean acres to increase at the expense of corn.

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered estimate of Argentina's 2009 soy crop to 36.2 million tonnes, down from previous estimate for 37 million.

U.S. Census Bureau to issue monthly crush data on Thursday.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- May down 0.04 cent at 36.09 cents per lb. Down in choppy trade but underpinned by strength in old-crop soybeans.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, April 22 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures rose 1.6 percent on Wednesday to the highest close in a week, rebounding from falls a day earlier as worries about tight global vegetable oil supplies re-surfaced, traders said.

The benchmark July contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 40 ringgit to 2,475 ringgit ($679.39), the highest closing level since April 14.

Other traded months rose between 21 and 237 ringgit.<0#KPO:> Overall volume was more than double the usual level at 21,098 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, April 22 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian shares were mixed on Wednesday, as investors sold banking shares led by Singapore's DBS Group and Thailand's Bangkok Bank on fears of more pain in the U.S. banking sector.

Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> led the decline with a 2.3 percent fall, while Thailand <.SETI> dipped 1.2 percent and Indonesian shares <.JKSE> ended 0.8 percent lower. The Malaysian index <.KLSE> gained 0.2 percent while Vietnam
<.VNI> added 2.9 percent.

Trader's Comment: CPO futures hovering at higher level today on the back of some supportive external factors.

CPO futures hovering at higher level today on the back of some supportive external factors. The strong close of overnight NYMEX crude oil and CBOT soy oil saw Benchmark July09 opened RM18 higher at 2453 and thereafter hovering between 2463-2439 level on the remaining morning session. Prices turned slightly weaker during second session opening as it suddenly slid to intra day low of 2423. However, it was quick to bounce back again and continue trading in the earlier range. Some late covering sent Benchmark to intra day high pf 2481 before it finally settled RM40 higher at 2475. The positive external market had provided steady support to CPO market. eCBOT soy oil extended overnight’s gains to inched higher today while Dalian palm also rose steadily. On the other side, Oilworld had also forecasted Argentina’s 2009 soybean harvest to reduce by 3 million tones due to dry weather. Meanwhile, there was news that Russia may halve their palm oil import to 420k tones this year as they had doubled their import tariff from June.

FCPO Daily: in consolidation mode


Market likely to extend its consolidation mode to move in sideways manner. Thus, we maintain the upside resistance at 2540. To the downside, support is remains at 2315-2300 followed by 2280-2250.

FKLI Daily: show little tiredness mode


Profit taking activities were evident after hitting a fresh new high at 980. Market looks little tiring with the recent sharp rise. We are now looking for the upside resistance at 980-985. While, downside support is pegged at 955-950.

KLSE Daily: maintain upward posture


Market maintained its upward posture as resistance at 969-970 was tested. As for now, we are looking for upside resistance 980-985. Meanwhile, downside support is pegged at 968-966 followed by 957-953.

DJI Daily: losing ground


Market continue to lose ground after fail to sustain at 8000 mark. We continue to look for the resistance at 8100-8200. While, downside support is pegged at 7700 followed by 7500-7400 level.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Oilseeds, oils vulnerable to price fall-Oil World

HAMBURG, April 21 - Global oilseed, edible oil and oil meal prices are susceptible to price falls following their recent strength, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
In the near term, the sector will face selling by investment funds and speculators, it said.

India soyoil futures edge up; Malaysian palm weighs

MUMBAI, April 21 - Indian soyoil futures erased early losses and edged up on Tuesday afternoon on expectations of a supply squeeze after an expected fall in soybean output in Argentina, a leading producer and exporter, analysts said. However, weak Malaysian palm oil weighed on the markets.

RTRS-GRAINS-US soybeans up on China buying. Argentine woes

CHICAGO, April 21 - U.S. soybean futures rose on Tuesday as China kept buying the oilseed and reports persisted of low yields in Argentina's harvest.
"There is momentum from continued Chinese buying and they keep lowering the Argentine crop," said Mario Balletto, analyst for Citigroup.

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, April 21 - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday after Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner indicated most banks have sufficient reserves to protect against possible losses, sparking a rebound in bank shares.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 127.83 points, or 1.63 percent, to 7,969.56. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 17.69 points, or 2.13 percent, to 850.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 35.64 points, or 2.22 percent, at 1,643.85.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, April 21 - U.S. crude oil futures settled higher on Tuesday, lifted by a bounce on Wall Street and amid volatility associated with the expiration of the May crude contract at the close.

Crude rose after falling more than $2 earlier as uncertainty about a quick economic recovery and bank stability that pressured global equities pushed oil lower.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude expired and settled up 63 cents, or 1.37 percent, at $46.51 a barrel, trading from $43.83 to $47.20.

CBOT - SOYBEANS - May up 19-1/2 cents at $10.38 per bushel.
Continued active buying of soy by China and low soy yields in the South American harvest supporting soy futures in addition to support from a short-covering bounce after the sharp decline of futures on Monday.

CBOT - SOYOIL
- May up 0.68 cent at 36.13 cents per lb.
Following soybeans and short-covering after the sharp decline of prices on Monday.

FCPO - JAKARTA, April 21 - Malaysian palm futures closed slightly lower on Tuesday, recouping most of the early losses thanks to late buying on concerns about tight supplies, traders said.

The market came under pressure in early trade as the crude oil price, which normally has an influence on palm oil prices, had fallen 9 percent the previous day.
Traders said the palm oil market was holding up well by late afternoon on short-covering.

The benchmark July contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 11 ringgit, or 0.5 percent, to 2,435 ringgit ($668.59), after dropping as low as 2,377 ringgit.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
- BANGKOK, April 21 - Southeast Asian stock markets were generally weak on Tuesday, hurt by renewed worries about the health of the U.S. financial system, but Singapore and Thailand recovered a little to end in positive territory.

A big increase in troubled loans at the largest U.S. bank, Bank of America, raised concern about the pace of any economic recovery, snapping a recent rally in equities worldwide.

Indonesia's main index, which rose 11.5 percent last week, fell nearly 2 percent, while Malaysia snapped a five-day winning streak, ending down 0.18 percent.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Trader's Comment: CPO futures managed to minimized its losses as it recouped most of the losses on late covering.

CPO futures managed to minimized its losses as it recouped most of the losses on late covering. The overnight tumble in NYMEX crude oil prices and the sharp losses in CBOT soy oil saw Benchmark July09 gap down RM56 to open at 2390. Market sentiment remained uncertain as prices then began to hover between 2420-2385 level through out most of the sessions. Although Dalian palm had been trading at limit down prices the whole trading day and eCBOT soy oil inched lower, the concerns on supply tightness had limit the effect of weak external factors. Traders were confident that stock levels were still at relatively low level. The emerged of intra day short covering activities in late trading sent Benchmark July09 to bounced back again and hit intra day high at 2442 before it finally settled RM11 lower at 2435.

Trader's Comment: CPO futures surrendered some of its gains to end marginally higher after a volatile trading day.

CPO futures surrendered some of its gains to end marginally higher after a volatile trading day. Benchmark July09 was initially well supported as it bounced back from the low of 2393 and surged to intra day high at 2501 following the released of 1-20 April export data by private cargo surveyor ITS who reported and increased of 4.2%. However, market became more choppy after the second private cargo surveyor SGS reported an increase of merely 0.8% of the same period export data. It climbed to 2495 after opened lower in second session, but retreated to 2439 again and finally settled RM11 higher at 2446. Market sentiment had been uncertain especially after both private cargo surveyors released the export data that is within market expectations. External factors were also weak as Dalian palm edged slightly higher after giving up its earlier gains while eCBOT soy oil edged lower today.

Breaking News-RTRS-China looks at Indonesia to boost palm oil stocks

KUALA LUMPUR, April 20 (Reuters) - China, the world's top vegetable oil consumer, is looking to boost its palm oil inventories as stocks have slipped below the usual 400,000 tonne level, traders said on Monday.
China, however, would be buying more palm oil products from Indonesia, the world's top producer as regular supplier Malaysia is facing a supply squeeze.

Breaking News-RTRS-Asian buyers rush for palm oil cargoes as stocks drop

KUALA LUMPUR, April 20 (Reuters) - Buyers are on the hunt for palm oil cargoes, traders and industry officials said on Monday, as fears of a supply squeeze in Malaysia mounts.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-India PEC scraps 12,000 T palm oil import tender

NEW DELHI, April 20 (Reuters) - Indian state-run trading firm PEC Ltd on Monday scrapped a tender to import 12,000 tonnes of crude palm oil due to a poor response, government sources said.
"Only one bid was received," a government official, who did not wish to be identified, told Reuters, adding that PEC normally awards a contracts if at least three bidders are in the fray.
A Malaysian firm offered to supply crude palm oil at $680 per tonne at the eastern port of Kakinada, another official said.
Indian traders said the cancellation of the tender may have weakened the market sentiment.
"This could be one of the main reasons for prices closing at a lower level from the day's high," said B.V. Mehta, executive director at the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), a leading trade body.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks slid more than 3 percent on Monday after weak results from Bank of America reignited concerns over the state of the banking industry and the economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 289.60 points, or 3.56 percent, to 7,841.73. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> tumbled 37.21 points, or 4.28 percent, to 832.39. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> fell 64.86 points, or 3.88 percent, to 1,608.21.

Fueling more bank concerns were comments from J.P. Morgan Securities, which said it estimates U.S. banks to incur $400 billion more in losses from the credit crisis and expects there will be a need for more capital for certain institutions.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended nearly 9 percent lower on Monday, pressured by economic concerns that caused a sharp drop on Wall Street and as the U.S. dollar rallied on safe-haven bids.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude , which is expiring on Tuesday, settled down $4,45, or 8.84 percent, at $45.88 a barrel, trading from $45.50, the lowest since $43.62 was hit on March 16, to $50.31.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May down 32-1/2 cents per bushel at $10.18-1/2 per bushel.

Falling stock market, firm dollar and lower crude oil weighs on soy with market underpinned by big China soy buying and declining soy yields in South American harvest.

CBOT-SOYOIL - May down 1.32 cents per lb at 35.45 cents per lb.

Following soybeans as lower crude oil and falling stock market combined with firm dollar pressuring soyoil.

FCPO
-JAKARTA, April 20 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures closed slightly firmer on Monday, giving up most of the day's gains, as the market consolidated after last week's supply tightness-inspired rally, traders said.

The benchmark July contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 11 ringgit, or 0.45 percent, to 2,446 ringgit ($673.83), after going as high as 2,501 ringgit and as low as 2,393 ringgit.

Other traded months rose between 5 and 41 ringgit <0#KPO:>. Overall volume was heavy at 18,303 lots of 25 tonnes each, nearly doubled the usual 10,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, April 20 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks ended
mixed on Monday, with Singaporean banks retreating after adverse rating news while commodity-linked shares pushed the Thai market to three-month highs even though investors fled domestic sectors.

Malaysia <.KLSE> gained 0.3 percent, Indonesia <.JKSE> rose for a sixth day, up 1.7 percent, the Philippines <.PSI> lost 0.4 percent and Vietnam <.VNI> dropped 4.6 percent.

DJI Daily: Peakish


Market formed a round top following prices losing ground at 8000 mark. Thus, market likely to enter to a correction mode in near term. To the upside, resistance is at 8100-8200. Downside support remains at 7700 followed by 7500-7400 level.

KLSE Daily: Defended well


Immediate daily technical landscape remains positive as prices continue to defend well. As for now, we are looking for the immediate resistance at 969-970. Meanwhile, downside support is pegged at 953-942 followed by 925-922 (gap leftover on 10/4/2009).

FKLI Daily: toppish


Daily technical landscape looks little toppish. Thus, market may due for correction in near term market. We are now looking for the upside resistance at 974. while, downside support is pegged at 946.5 followed by 931-928.5 (gap left over on 10/4/2009).

FCPO Daily: shows tiredness


Market shows a little tiredness mode after few days of defend at above 2400 mark. Thus, correction mode is likely to extend in near term. We remain the upside resistance at 2540. To the downside, support is pegged at 2315-2300 followed by 2280-2250.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Breaking News-RTRS-ANALYSIS-Palm supply squeeze may trigger rush to buy

KUALA LUMPUR, April 17 (Reuters) - Stung by the twin woes of erratic weather and aggressive replanting, palm oil traders are bracing for a supply squeeze in the months ahead, spurring importers to stock up ahead of an anticipated rise in demand.
This is already reflected in Malaysian prices -- palm is one of the biggest gainers this year, soaring 42 percent -- and analysts say any further rise may force Indian and Chinese buyers to shift to soy oil, which has risen at a much lower rate.
Analysts said top producers Indonesia and Malaysia could see palm output fall in April-June, rather than a gradual increase as usually expected, driving total stocks down by more than half to below 2.5 million tonnes by the end of the period, from a record 5 million tonnes in November.

Breaking News-RTRS-China seen extending soybean buying plan

BEIJING, April 17 (Reuters) - China will extend state purchases of domestic soybeans by two months beyond the scheme's planned April expiry, traders said on Friday, a move that could keep imports at the near record levels that have boosted Chicago futures to six-month highs.
The government is still 2 million tonnes short of its target for purchases as many farmers are still holding onto last year's harvest, while beans often don't meet required moisture levels.
"The purchase for reserves will last until June, but the amount will remained unchanged. The authorities are close to a decision as far as we know," said Yu Haifeng, a dealer with Heilongjiang Tianqi Futures Co. Ltd.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, April 17 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Friday, with the Dow scoring its biggest six-week gain since July 1938, helped by a reassuring report on the mood of consumers and stabilization in General Electric and Citigroup's quarterly results.

GE and Citigroup both posted better-than-expected results, lifting the broader market, and bank stocks rallied as investors bet other financial companies could follow up with more news showing the sector is on the mend.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 5.90 points, or 0.07 percent, to 8,131.33. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> climbed 4.30 points, or 0.50 percent, to 869.60. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> added 2.63 points, or 0.16
percent, to 1,673.07.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, April 17 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended higher on Friday, backed by Wall Street's rise on economic optimism, but gains were pared sharply from the day's highs amid bloated oil inventories and poor demand.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude ended up 35 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $50.33 a barrel, trading from $49.41 to $51.37. From the previous week, it fell $1.91, or 3.66 percent.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May down 7-1/2 cents per bushel at $10.51 per bushel.

Turned lower on profit taking after soaring to fresh six-month high of $10.73, surpassing 200-day moving average of $10.71-1/4.

Exporters sell 275,000 tonnes U.S. soybeans to unknown, including 55,000 tonnes for 2008/09 - USDA.

Aggressive buying of U.S. and Brazilian soybeans this week, 10-15 cargoes, by China and reports of low soybean yields in the Argentine harvest fueled this week's soy rally.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- May up 0.02 cent per lb at 36.77 cents per lb. Support from rally in Asian trade for soyoil and palm oil.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, April 17 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures jumped 3.3 percent on Friday as traders chased tight supplies, renewing a rally that saw palm widen its premium to soyoil.

The benchmark July contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled up 77 ringgit to 2,435 ringgit ($673.8) per tonne.

Other traded months rose between 20 and 77 ringgit while Sept 2010 contract fell 25 ringgit <0#KPO:>. Overall volume stood at 17,340 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-Other major Southeast Asian stock markets ended with small
gains, with Asian stocks in general rising after better-than-expected results from JPMorgan.

Singapore <.FTSTI> rose 0.3 percent, with top lender DBS Group up 0.5 percent and telecom firm SingTel up 0.8 percent. Malaysia <.KLSE> gained 0.4 percent, with biggest power firm Tenaga Nasional up 2.9 percent. Indonesia <.JKSE> extended its gains for a fifth day, ending
up 0.6 percent,

DJI Weekly: Not much changes


Market remains hovering around 8000 mark. Thus, we maintain the upside resistance and downside support at 8300-8400 and 7500-7400 level respectively.

KLSE Weekly: Maintain its upward move


Market looks may continue to move higher with upside resistance now is looking at 973-993. To the downside, support is pegged at 936.

FKLI Weekly: Remains looking good


Weekly chart remains looking good following market hits a new high for the year. Thus, we maintain positive towards the near term market. We are now looking for the upside resistance at 980-990. Downside support is pegged at 935-925

FCPO Weekly: Remains in bullish tone


Bull looks not to give up although market has been rebounded sharply for three weeks in a row. As for now, we look for the upside resistance at 2550-2600 followed by 2665-2675. While, downside support is pegged at 2300-2275 followed by 2200-2185.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Trader's Comment: CPO futures ended broadly higher on pre-weekend covering after last 2 days of weak close.

CPO futures ended broadly higher on pre-weekend covering after last 2 days of weak close. Initially, Benchmark July09 slid to intra day low of 2322 on some follow through selling from yesterday’s weak closing. However, it then bounced back quickly as bargain hunting buying and aggressive short covering activities emerged. This saw Benchmark July09 prices broke 2400 easily in the morning session. It surged further to 2446 in the afternoon session and then hovering between 2440-2420 before it finally settled RM77 higher at 2435. Generally, the overall market was still supportive. Players were still chasing on supply tightness, as end stock were yet unable to build up in the coming months.

Breaking News-RTRS-China soy imports stay healthy, no delay worries

BEIJING, April 16 (Reuters) - China's soy imports have kept healthy on good crushing margins following a recovery of demand for soymeal and traders expect the momentum to last until June.
Chinese quarantine authorities in Guangdong have not interrupted any U.S soy cargoes after inspectors found disease in 10 batches of samples over the past three months, said one trading manager in a major crusher in Guangzhou.

Breaking News-RTRS-POLL-US soy prices to gain another dollar by summer

CHICAGO, April 16 (Reuters) - U.S. soybean futures, already at their highest
level in six-months, are expected to tack on another dollar per bushel by this
summer as China keeps buying and supplies in the United States keep dwindling, A
Reuters poll of analysts and traders showed.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, April 16 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks surged on Thursday as expectations of reassuring results from bellwethers, including Google, lifted technology shares, while JPMorgan's better-than-expected profit added to bank stabilization hopes.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 95.81 points, or 1.19 percent, to 8,125.43. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 13.24 points, or 1.55 percent, to 865.30. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> jumped 43.64 points, or 2.68
percent, to 1,670.44.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, April 16 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended higher on Thursday, just below $50 a barrel, as traders dealt with the expiration of options on the front May contract.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude settled up 73 cents cents, or 1.48 percent, at $49.98 a barrel, trading from $49.11 to $50.48.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May up 23-1/2 cents at $10.58-1/2 per bushel.

Rallies to new six-month high of $10.59 per bushel amid strong demand for soy by China and shrinking supplies, in addition to support from news late on Wednesday that the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange trimmed its estimate for Argentine soy output for this year to 37 million tonnes, from a previous estimate of 39.4 million.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- May down 0.20 cent per lb. at 36.75 cents per lb.

Profit-taking after big gains early in the week weighing on market, but soyoil underpinned by gains in soy.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, April 16 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures fell 1.7 percent on Thursday as traders paused to take profits from a rally triggered by expectations of lower domestic inventories and strengthening global soyoil markets.

The benchmark July contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled down 40 ringgit at 2,358 ringgit ($655) per tonne after posting gains in the morning session.

Other traded months rose between 30 and 75 ringgit while the November contract inched up <0#KPO:>. Overall volume climbed to 16,116 lots from the normal 10,000 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, April 16 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets ended mixed on Thursday, some losing early gains after downbeat economic data from China, and political violence pushed Thailand
lower after a holiday, but not by as much as some had feared.

Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> fell 0.8 percent. In Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia's benchmark stock index <.KLSE> rose 0.5 percent, with biggest power firm Tenaga Nasional surging 6.2 percent after it announced second-quarter earnings that were above expectations. In Jakarta, the main index <.JKSE> rose for a fourth day, up nearly 2 percent at its highest since Oct. 7.

DJI Daily: improve a little


Market improved a little as 8100 tested. However, it was not enough to change the immediate daily technical outlook. Thus,we maintain our sideways view in near term market. To the upside, resistance is at 8200-8400. Downside support remains at 7700 level.

KLSE Daily: still looking good....


Upward momentum remains intact following resistance at 961-965 was violated. As for now, we continue to look for the resistance at 970-975. Meanwhile, downside support is maintain at 936 followed by 925-922 (gap leftover on 10/4/2009).

FKLI Daily: Bull took a breathe


Bull took a breathe after the recent sharp rebound as market gave up all its early gains to end negatively. As for now, upside resistance is at 974. To the downside, support is pegged at 942.5-940 followed by 931-928 (gap left over on 10/4/2009).

FCPO Daily: Correction mode likely to continue


Market appears reversal signal with a long black candle printed at the higher end. Thus, correction mode is likely to continue in near term. We are now looking for the upside resistance at 2540. To the downside, support is pegged at 2315-2300 followed by 2280-2250.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Trader's Comment: CPO futures extended from yesterday’s losses as traders continue to book profit

CPO futures extended from yesterday’s losses as traders continue to book their profit after prices rallied strongly since last week. New Benchmark July was initially well supported as it hovered between 2443-2412 through out the morning session on the back of higher soy oil prices in the early Asian time trading. However, sellers became more aggressive in the afternoon session. Benchmark July09 began to fall all the way down to intra day low of 2347 in late trading before it finally settled RM40 lower at 2358. External market was mix today as eCBOT soy oil turned lower when it surrendered it earlier gains while Dalian palm edged higher. Basically market is in correction phase after recent strong rally.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-Indonesia may keep CPO export tax at zero pct in May

JAKARTA, April 16 (Reuters) - Indonesia may keep its palm oil export tax at zero percent in May, despite a recent rise in palm oil prices, Trade Minister Mari Pangestu said on Thursday.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday amid numerous signs the recession could be abating and data from American Express signaled the ability of some consumers to pay their bills is stabilizing.

The rally was spurred by positive comments from some major banks and hopes that the economy was showing signs of stabilization, but those hopes were dented by Tuesday's
unexpected drop in retail sales.

After a choppy session, the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 109.44 points, or 1.38 percent, to 8,029.62. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> rose 10.56 points, or 1.25 percent, to 852.06. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> added
1.08 points, or 0.07 percent, to 1,626.80.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended lower on Wednesday, pressured by data showing domestic crude stocks rose last week to their highest in nearly 19 years.
Losses were sharply pared, however, as Wall Street rose on better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data, and that helped crude recover from the day's lows.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude settled down 16 cents, or 0.32 percent, at $49.25 a barrel, trading from $48.91 to $50.79.

CBOT-CHICAGO, April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. soybeans climbed for a fifth straight session on Wednesday and hit a fresh three-month high as China, the world's largest soy importer, keeps buying soy.

There was talk the Brazilian soybean export market was on fire and export sources said Brazil sold six soybean cargoes with four destined for China and two headed for Taiwan.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, April 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures fell 1.1 percent on Wednesday, easing from an 8-month high notched earlier in the session as some investors booked profits on a rally fuelled by speculation of a drawdown in stocks.

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose as much as 55 ringgit to 2,540 ringgit ($703.4) per tonne, a level unseen since Sept. 3. The contract settled down 26 ringgit at 2,459 ringgit.

Other traded months fell between 22 and 41 ringgit except the front-month which rose 20 ringgit <0#KPO:>. Overall volume doubled to 21,681 lots of 25 tonnes each from the usual 10,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-Elsewhere in the region, Singapore's Straits Times Index
<.FTSTI> finished 0.47 percent higher, driven by property shares.

The Kuala Lumpur Composite <.KLSE> inched 0.31 percent higher. The region's smaller markets fell. Philippines <.PSI> lost
0.72 percent while Vietnam shares <.VNI> dropped 2.24 percent.

DJI Daily: Conlidation phase likely to extend


Nothing much changes on the immediate technical landscape as market remains holding around 8000 mark. Thus,consolidation phase is likely to extend in near term. Resistance and support maintain at 8100-8200 and 7700 level respectively.

KLSE Daily: Upward momentum remains intact


Upward momentum remains intact. As for now, we continue to look for the resistance at 961-965. Meanwhile, downside support is maintain at 936 followed by 925-922 (gap leftover on 10/4/2009).

FKLI Daily: Inching up


Another fresh high for the year at 967.5. Thus, we are now looking for the immediate resistance at 970 followed by 980-990. To the downside, support is pegged at 942.5-940 followed by 931-928 (gap left over on 10/4/2009).

FCPO Daily: TOP at 2540?


Market gave up all its early gain after hitting the day high at 2540 to end lower. A long upper shadow candle printed after the recent strong rallied may indicate that market is entering to a correction mode in near term. Thus, we are now looking for the upside resistance at 2540 followed by 2600. To the downside, support is pegged at 2400-2385 followed by 2315-2300.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Trader's Comment: The “bull” finally got defeated as CPO prices posted its first loss after previous 4 days winning streak.

The “bull” finally got defeated as CPO prices posted its first loss after previous 4 days winning streak. Benchmark Jun09 surrendered its earlier gains amid profit taking activities. It initially bounced back from intra day low of 2440 and immediately broke above 2500 level on the back of 1-15 April export data released by private cargo surveyor ITS who reported an increase of 3.7%. However, prices began to ease off from its intra day high of 2540 in the second session after second private cargo surveyor SGS showed a lower than expected export figure when it stated a decrease of 1.56%. Benchmark Jun09 slid to 2442 before it finally ended RM26 lower at 2459. The pressure from profit taking activities had undermined the CPO market despite supportive external market. eCBOT soy oil had been inching higher today and Dalian palm traded close to limit up price.

Breaking News-RTRS-India's March veg oil imports up 27.5 pct y/y-trade

NEW DELHI, April 15 (Reuters) - India's vegetable oil imports in March rose 27.5 percent from a year earlier to 641,141 tonnes, a leading trade body said on Wednesday.
Imports in the oil year from November were at 3.6 million tonnes, up from from 2.3 million tonnes in the year-ago period, data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) showed.

Breaking News-RTRS-NOPA March soybean crush pegged at 137.7 mln bu

CHICAGO, April 13 (Reuters) - National Oilseed Processors Association monthly crush data to be issued Tuesday morning should show a March U.S. soybean crush near 137.7 million bushels, analysts said on Monday.
Trade estimates ranged from 137.0 million to 138.5 million bushels and compare with NOPA's February soy crush figure of 128.7 million.
Analysts expected NOPA to raise its soyoil stocks figure by 40 to 100 million lbs from its February stocks figure of 2.501 billion lbs.

Breaking News-RTRS-Oil World cuts Argentina's 2009 soy crop forecast

HAMBURG, April 14 (Reuters) - Argentina's 2009 soybean crop is likely to fall to about 40 million tonnes from 46.7 million tonnes in 2008 but the outlook in Brazil is improving, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday.
On April 7 Oil World had estimated Argentina's crop this year at 40-41 million tonnes.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as a surprising drop in retail sales dented hopes the recession was abating and financial shares slid on fears that Goldman Sachs' share offering could prompt others to follow suit.

"There is fear that other banks wanting to pay back government funds may want to raise cash by issuing shares," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Ohio-based Schaeffer's Investment Research.

The gloomy news on retail shows that "maybe the economy hasn't turned around as the last 5-week bounce suggested."

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 137.63 points, or 1.71 percent, to 7,920.18. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> fell 17.23 points, or 2.01 percent, to 841.50. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> declined 27.59 points, or 1.67 percent, to 1,625.72.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell further in post-settlement trade on Tuesday, but stuck to the day's range, after industry data showed that crude inventories rose much higher than expected last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange at 4:50 p.m. EDT (2050 GMT), May crude was down 89 cents, or 1.78 percent, at $49.16 a barrel. It had settled 64 cents, or 1.28 percent, lower at $48.41, trading from $48.85 to $51.12.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May up 14-1/2 cents at $10.36 a bushel.

Rallies to three-month top. Market technically strong and supported by good Chinese demand for U.S. soy, which is seen drawing down American stocks to a five-year low.

Oil World cuts Argentina's 2009 soy crop forecast.

National Oilseed Processors Association reported U.S. March soy crush at 137.257 million bushels, slightly below average estimate for 137.7 million.

CBOT-SOYOIL - May up 0.89 cent at 36.95 cents per lb.

Supported by the strength in Asian vegoil markets. Strong soybean market also supportive.

NOPA said U.S. March soyoil stocks 2.593 billion lbs., above February 2.501 billion. Analysts expected stocks to increase by 40-100 million lbs.

FCPO-JAKARTA, April 14 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures jumped 6.4 precent to a new high in nearly eight months on Tuesday amid market talk that key data, due to be released tomorrow, will show strong exports in the first 15 days of April, traders said.

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 150 ringgit to 2,485 ringgit ($693.17) per tonne, the highest closing level since September 4.

Other traded months rose between 65 and 179 ringgit, except for the March 2010 contract, which fell 20 ringgit. <0#KPO:>. Overall volume was heavy at 23,790 lots of 25 tonnes each, more than double the usual 10,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-Malaysia's Kuala Lumpur Composite Index <.KLSE> gained 1.3
percent, and Singapore's benchmark Index <.FTSTI> rose 1.1 percent, helped by a 7 percent gain in property firm Capitaland .

Philippine shares <.PSI> edged down 0.3 percent, but Vietnam stocks <.VNI> gained 2.1 percent. Thai markets <.SETI> were closed for a holiday.

DJI Daily: Enter to consolidation phase


Market again failed to defend at 8000 mark. Thus, market may due for consolidation in near term. To the upside, immediate resistance remains at 8100-8200. Downside support is pegged at 7700.

KLSE Daily: Continue to gain ground


Sharp rise with a double digit gain had strengthened further the immediate technical landscape. As for now, we continue to look for the resistance at 960. Meanwhile, downside support is pegged at 936 followed by 925-922 (gap leftover on 10/4/2009).

FKLI Daily: Another fresh year high


Market surpass the resistance 960 and close at fresh year high. Overall technical landscape remains in bullish tone. We are now looking for the immediate upside resistance at 965-970. To the downside, support is maintain at 931-928 (gap left over on 10/4/2009).

FCPO Daily: Where is the TOP?


Bull was getting stronger after breaking through the resistance at 2400-2450 convincingly. Market looks is heading to challenge the upside resistance at 2500-2550. Bear in mind that a healthy correction may taking place anytime after the recent sharp rise in order to strengthen the upward momentum. Downside support is adjusted to 2300-2290.