Tuesday, April 16, 2013

RTRS - China Q1 GDP growth eases to 7.7 pct yr/yr


BEIJING, April 15 (Reuters) - China's economic recovery unexpectedly stumbled in the first three months of 2013 as the annual rate of growth eased back to 7.7 percent from the 7.9 percent pace set in the final quarter of last year, official data showed on Monday.

The figures, announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, were weaker than market expectations in the consensus Reuters poll of a 8.0 percent expansion.

Many investors had been primed for an upside surprise versus the consensus after a Q1 surge in liquidity in the economy and an uptick in export growth nurtured a belief that a policy-induced recovery that had snapped seven straight quarters of weakening expansion in Q4 would accelerate again.

China's full-year annual growth of 7.8 percent in 2012 was the weakest since 1999.

Other data released alongside GDP showed industrial output grew 8.9 percent in March from a year ago, versus expectations of 10.0 percent showed in the Reuters poll.

Retail sales in March rose 12.6 percent on a year ago versus an estimated 12.5 percent in the Reuters poll.
Fixed-asset investment grew 20.9 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, versus an expected 21.3 percent. The government only publishes cumulative investment data.

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, April 15 (Reuters) - Investors dumped commodities and stocks on Monday in a broad selloff that gave gold its worst two-day loss in 30 years after weak demand figures from China fanned concerns the world economy is stumbling.

With the market already vulnerable, U.S. stocks extended losses late in the session after two explosions struck near the Boston Marathon finish line. Boston police said the blasts killed two people and injured 23. 

China's recovery unexpectedly stumbled in the first three months of 2013, as it reported its annual growth rate eased to 7.7 percent from 7.9 percent in the final quarter of last year. Economists had forecast 8 percent growth. 

Industrial output in China in March also undershot expectations and added to investor sensitivity after recent disappointing economic data out of the United States.

A U.S. regional manufacturing report on Monday showed the pace of growth slowed, the latest data to suggest the world's biggest economy lost some steam heading into the second quarter.

"If we see this kind of liquidation again, the equity market will follow. Then we’ll have a real problem," said Frank Cholly, Jr., senior commodities broker at R.J. O’Brien and Associates in Chicago.

"If we turn into a bear market and this isn’t just a correction, sentiment may really sour. There is no one buying and picking a bottom yet."

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 265.86 points, or 1.79 percent, to close at 14,599.20. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 36.49 points, or 2.30 percent, to end at 1,552.36. The Nasdaq Composite Index  fell 78.46 points, or 2.38 percent, to 3,216.49.

"The adverse feedback loop of all these things ... that's spilling over to stocks and that's something most investors don't want to get in front of. So we've seen selling really dominate the day today," said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.


Oils - NEW YORK, April 15 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil fell by almost 3 percent to near $100 a barrel on Monday, extending a two-week selloff that has sliced nearly 10 percent off prices, as part of a wider flight by investors from commodities.

Gold posted its biggest two-day loss in 30 years while Brent crude fell for the eighth time in 10 sessions in what analysts said were indications that a host of weak fundamental signals dominated sentiment.

In the United States, crude oil stockpiles have ballooned to a 30-year high as domestic output surges, with no end in sight. Global demand has struggled due to economic uncertainty in top consuming nations.

Against the background of weaker fundamentals, lower-than-expected GDP growth from No. 2 oil consumer China rattled the commodity complex further on Monday and pushed Brent to near $100 a barrel for the first time since July 2012.

The Brent contract for May delivery, which expired on Monday, traded as low as $100.02 a barrel in early U.S. activity before settling down $2.72 at $100.39 a barrel.

Meanwhile, the contract for June delivery fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since July, extending its sell-off in post settlement trading to as low as $99.12 a barrel.

Over the past 10 sessions, Brent prices have dropped by 10 percent, sending the contract to just over 26 on the 14-day Relative Strength Index. Commodities are generally considered oversold if they dip below 30 on that index.

U.S. crude settled down $2.58 at $88.71 a barrel, hitting the lowest level since mid-December in heavy trading, with volumes 47 percent above the 30-day moving average.

"The selloff is long overdue and is a reflection of weakness in the market that everyone had been perceiving," said Edward Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup.


CBOT Soybean - April 15 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell on Monday on spillover weakness from a broad-based sell-off in commodities, traders said.
  • May soybeans ended lower, reversing after rallying to a two-week high, but still gained relative to back months on spreads. Nearbys underpinned by tight U.S. soy supplies and firm cash markets. The inverted May/November spread peaked at $1.99-1/2, its highest level since mid-March.
  • The U.S. soybean crush rose marginally to 137.08 million bushels in March, in line with forecasts for a slight gain from 136.3 million bushels in February, National Oilseed Processors Association data showed.
  • CBOT soyoil plunged 2 percent, pressured by NOPA reporting the March U.S. soybean oil yield as the highest on records dating to 2002, at 11.94 lbs per bushel.
  • USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans at 4.813 million bushels, far below trade expectations for 13 million to 16 million.
  • Basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast were steady to firm early Monday on tight old-crop supplies and a lack of farmer selling. 
  • Farmers in China plan to continue growing more rice and corn in 2013, while reducing the area devoted to cotton and soybeans, the National Bureau of Statistics said. 

BMD CPO - SINGAPORE, April 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell to a 4-month low on Monday, hurt by easing exports and disappointing Chinese data that raised concerns about the outlook for global commodity demand.

Slower-than-expected economic growth in China, the world's second-largest economy, triggered broad-based selloffs in commodities markets such as gold and crude oil.

The most active soybean oil contract in Dalian tumbled to the lowest since its initiation last September, putting further pressure on palm oil especially after cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services reported slower exports for the first half of April compared to the same period a month ago.

"Exports were slower than expected, but the market is also affected by the poor performance in other commodities," said a trader with local commodities brokerage in Malaysia. "If the global economy is not good, the buying strength won't be there."

The benchmark June contract  on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 2.2 percent to close at 2,294 ringgit ($755) per tonne. Prices earlier fell to 2,281 ringgit, the lowest seen since Dec. 14.

Total traded volumes stood at 37,179 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the average 35,000 lots.

China's economy grew 7.7 percent in the first quarter, undershooting market expectations for an 8.0 percent expansion and frustrating investors hoping the economy would rebound after posting its weakest growth in 13 years in 2012.

On top of that, persisting worries that a bird flu outbreak in China could hurt soy demand also weighed on vegetable oil markets, with the most active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange falling by as much as 2.5 percent.

Soyoil is a close competitor of palm oil and a fall in prices of the former could wean away demand from the latter.

Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer, will set its crude palm oil export tax for May at 4.5 percent, unchanged from April, a government circular showed on Monday.

Official data showed that stocks in the southeast Asian country posted a higher-than-expected decline to 2.17 million tonnes in March, helped by a 10 percent increase in exports.

In other markets, Brent crude oil sank below $101 a barrel on Monday to a nine-month low after bleak Chinese and U.S. data stoked worries of a slowdown in economic growth in the world's top oil consumers


Regional Equities - JAKARTA, April 15 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets closed down on Monday on concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and weaker-than-expected Chinese data, with Indonesian and Philippine shares falling more than 0.7 percent.

The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan  was down 0.95 percent.

The World Bank slightly scaled back its 2013 growth forecasts for emerging East Asia and warned about possible over-heating in the region's larger economies, but the global lender said the Bank of Japan's sweeping monetary expansion should provide a fillip to developing countries.

The Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.86 percent to 4,894.59, led by banking stocks such as Bank Central Asia and Bank Mandiri  Philippine stocks slid 0.78 percent.

Malaysia stocks ended nearly flat, while the Straits Times Index  was down 0.3 percent with media and property firm Singapore Press Holdings Ltd  as the worst performer.