Wednesday, October 31, 2012

RTRS- Concern grows about delay to S. American soy sowings -Oil World

HAMBURG, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Concern is growing that rain will cut soybean plantings in Brazil and Argentina, reducing the outlook for large soy crops in 2013, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

“Although it is still early in the season, there is now a higher risk that initial estimates of a sharp increase in soybean production by 36 million tonnes or 30 percent will not fully materialise,” it said.

This is partly because the forecast 5 million hectare or 11 percent increase in southern hemisphere soybean plantings for the harvest in early 2013 may not be achieved due to rain in South America, while yields may be lower than forecast, it said.

Oil World currently estimates southern hemisphere soybean crops in early 2013 - almost all in South America - will increase by about 36 million tonnes on the year to 153.5 million tonnes, largely because of big crops expected in Brazil and Argentina.

Global soybean consumers are counting on a bumper South American harvest to relieve current tight global supplies.

Soybean prices hit record highs on Sept. 4 after drought ravaged U.S. crops but forecasts are for a huge increase in South American crops as farmers expand soybean sowings to cash in on high prices.
Rain could endanger the crop forecasts in South America by disrupting sowings, Oil World said.

“Excessive rainfall has reportedly been received on roughly 50 percent of the total Argentine oilseed and grain area,” Oil World said.

In Brazil, soybean sowings as of Oct. 19 were still lagging by an estimated 1.3 million-1.5 million hectares behind planting intentions because of rain, it said.

“We consider it likely that in the first or second week of November there will be headlines circulating in newswires about alarming soybean planting delays of around 3 million hectares behind last year’s pace in Argentina and Brazil combined,” Oil World added.

Trader's Highlight

NYMEX- SINGAPORE, Oct 30 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures slipped to just above $85 a barrel on Tuesday, near the lowest in more than three months, as Hurricane Sandy shut East Coast refineries, roads and airports, reducing crude and fuel demand in the world's largest oil consumer.

• U.S. crude for December delivery CLc1 fell for the third straight session, down 41 cents to $85.13 a barrel by 2327 GMT. November gasoline futures RBc1 were down 0.36 percent to $2.747 a gallon, after climbing more than 5 cents on Monday.

• Hurricane Sandy, one of the biggest storms ever to hit the United States, lashed the densely populated East Coast on Monday, shutting down transportation, forcing evacuations in flood-prone areas and interrupting the presidential campaign.
• The supply of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel into the U.S. East Coast ground almost to a halt on Monday as the storm forced the closure of two-thirds of the region's refineries, its biggest pipeline, and most major ports.
• U.S. crude oil inventories were forecast to have risen for the fourth straight week as a result of increased imports, a preliminary Reuters poll of analysts showed.

Crude inventories were seen up 1.5 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 26, before Hurricane Sandy began to cause large scale disruptions to oil refineries and pipelines on the East Coast.

• Iran has no plan to close the vital shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz, Defence Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi was cited as saying by state-run Press TV.
• Russia's Gazprom GAZP.MM committed more than $38 billion to develop an East Siberian gas field and build a pipeline to the Pacific port of Vladivostok to lessen its reliance on exports to Europe and develop Asian markets.

CBOT SOYBEAN- U.S. soybean futures rallied Tuesday on bargain buying one day after posting a 2 percent decline, buoyed by a softer dollar, firm cash markets and talk of Chinese demand, traders said.

Corn futures firmed on technical buying after a six-day slide while wheat was choppy, losing ground to corn on inter-market spreads.

Volume was light as U.S. stock markets were closed for a second day and investors waited to see the full impact of Hurricane Sandy, the massive storm that wrought destruction across the eastern United States. But world shares rose modestly and the dollar fell, lending support to dollar-denominated commodities.

"Yesterday was overextended, especially in the beans. The outside markets (today) are supporting us here. The weaker dollar is giving us a chance to recover," said Art Liming, futures specialist with Citigroup in Chicago.

At the Chicago Board of Trade as of 12:20 p.m. CDT (1720 GMT), most-active January soybeans SF3 were up 11-3/4 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $15.41-1/2 per bushel. December corn CZ2 was up 3 cents at $7.40 a bushel while December wheat WZ2 was down 1-1/2 cents at $8.56-1/2 a bushel.

Soybeans drew support from talk that China was buying more U.S. soybeans, given that front-month CBOT futures Sc1 have fallen 14 percent from their all-time high of $17.94-3/4 set in early September.

"The rumors are very strong that China is buying more and more beans on this break. Crush margins in China are negative right now, but this doesn't seem to make much difference," said Bill Gary, president of Commodity Information Systems in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

Also bullish were ideas that the South American crop currently being planted might not be as large as initially expected. The grains trade is counting on a bumper South American crop to replenish global supplies after drought cut the latest soy harvests in the United States and South America.

Michael Cordonnier, president of Soybean and Corn Advisor, lowered his forecast of 2012/13 Brazilian soybean production to 80 million tonnes, from his previous estimate of 81 million to 83 million. The U.S. Department of Agriculture currently projects Brazil's crop at 81 million tonnes.

Hamburg-based oilseeds analyst Oil World cautioned that rain delays could reduce soy plantings in Brazil and Argentina.

"Although it is still early in the season, there is now a higher risk that initial estimates of a sharp increase in soybean production by 36 million tonnes or 30 percent will not fully materialize,” Oil World said.

Firm U.S. cash markets lent support as U.S. soy crushers competed with exporters for domestic supplies.

"The basis on soybeans is still extremely tight. Processors are posting good margins right now at the crush plants, and they are trying to get as many soybeans as possible," said Karl Setzer, a commodity trading adviser at MaxYield Cooperative in West Bend, Iowa.

FCPO- KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Palm oil futures fell to a near 2-week low on Tuesday as investors feared lower November export taxes in top producer Indonesia could shift demand away from competitor Malaysia while fretting over a slowing global economy.

Prices of the edible oil also came under pressure from weaker Brent crude as Sandy, one of the worst storms to hit the United States in years, shuttered U.S. refineries, curbing energy demand in the world's largest economy and weighing on other commodity markets.

"At the moment, we don't see any supportive news for palm oil. Prices are likely to stay choppy in a range of 2,430 to 2,600 ringgit," said Phillip Futures analyst Ker Chung Yang in Singapore.

"The tax cut will hurt Malaysia's palm oil prices as Indonesia's palm oil becomes more competitive in the near future. Malaysian players will certainly hope that the government will do more to counter such an act from Indonesia."

The benchmark January contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange slid 1.8 percent to 2,501 ringgit ($820) per tonne after dropping as low as 2,491 ringgit, a level unseen since Oct. 18.

Total traded volumes stood at 33,602 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Palm oil prices may still target 2,379 ringgit per tonne, as a rebound from the Oct. 3 low of 2,230 ringgit has been completed and a preceding downtrend has resumed, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Brent crude hovered above $109 a barrel on Tuesday due to the storm, and analysts expect weaker crude oil to weigh on the whole commodities asset class.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 inched up 0.2 percent in early Asian trade. The most-active May 2013 soybean oil contract DBYcv1 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 0.3 percent.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Indonesia's benchmark index closed at a record high on Tuesday as strong quarterly earnings from banks such as Bank Mandiri helped lift sentiment, and Malaysia marked a record close for the fourth straight session as investors piled into banking stocks.

Jakarta's Composite Index .JKSE closed at 4,364.59, above its previous all-time closing high of 4,356.96 on Oct. 18. Shares in PT Bank Mandiri BMRI.JK, which reported a 26 percent rise in third-quarter net profit, jumped 2.44 percent.

Malaysia's main share index .KLSE edged up 0.13 percent to 1,674.67, a new record close, on thin trading. The number three lender, Public Bank PUBM.KL, advanced 0.9 percent to 15.88 ringgit, also a record finish, supported by better-than-expected quarterly earnings.
In Bangkok, large cap energy and banking stocks such as PTT Exploration and Production PTTE.BK and Bangkok Bank BBL.BK gained after recent losses, leading the SET index .SETI to finish near a 1,300 mark.

Investors have warned about high valuations of equities in Southeast Asia after strong performance in the past three years. Concerns over broadly weaker-than-expected quarterly results of companies in the region have dented sentiment.