HAMBURG, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Concern is growing that rain will cut soybean plantings in Brazil and Argentina, reducing the outlook for large soy crops in 2013, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
“Although it is still early in the season, there is now a higher risk that initial estimates of a sharp increase in soybean production by 36 million tonnes or 30 percent will not fully materialise,” it said.
This is partly because the forecast 5 million hectare or 11 percent increase in southern hemisphere soybean plantings for the harvest in early 2013 may not be achieved due to rain in South America, while yields may be lower than forecast, it said.
Oil World currently estimates southern hemisphere soybean crops in early 2013 - almost all in South America - will increase by about 36 million tonnes on the year to 153.5 million tonnes, largely because of big crops expected in Brazil and Argentina.
Global soybean consumers are counting on a bumper South American harvest to relieve current tight global supplies.
Soybean prices hit record highs on Sept. 4 after drought ravaged U.S. crops but forecasts are for a huge increase in South American crops as farmers expand soybean sowings to cash in on high prices.
Rain could endanger the crop forecasts in South America by disrupting sowings, Oil World said.
“Excessive rainfall has reportedly been received on roughly 50 percent of the total Argentine oilseed and grain area,” Oil World said.
In Brazil, soybean sowings as of Oct. 19 were still lagging by an estimated 1.3 million-1.5 million hectares behind planting intentions because of rain, it said.
“We consider it likely that in the first or second week of November there will be headlines circulating in newswires about alarming soybean planting delays of around 3 million hectares behind last year’s pace in Argentina and Brazil combined,” Oil World added.
