Monday, June 8, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures continue to fall lower and break below 2500 level on weak external factors.

Palm oil futures continue to fall lower and break below 2500 level on weak external factors. Benchmark Aug09 initially was still holding steadily in the morning session as it bounced back from the morning low of 2500 and managed to close at 2522 before lunch time. However, sentiment turned weaker in the second session. Seller became more aggressive as prices broke below 2500 level and continue to fall lower through out the remaining session until it hit intra day low of 2454, before it finally settled RM62 lower at 2458. The bearish external markets had provided more selling sentiment to the local CPO market. Both crude oil and eCBOT soy oil continue to fall more than 1% lower after their respective overnight losses, while Dalian palm ended almost 2% lower during the Asian time trading.

Breaking News-RTRS-China soy crushers in red after CBOT price rally

BEIJING, June 5 (Reuters) - A rise of Chicago Board of Trade soy prices (CBOT) is leading Chinese soy plants to operate at a loss as they crush soybeans imported from the United States and South America, according to an official survey.
Imported soybeans for July shipment rose to more than 4,300 yuan ($629.3) per tonne after CBOT soy <0#S:> hit its highest level since mid-September, leading crushers to post losses by selling their soy products at current prices, the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) said in a report.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-Brazil 08/09 soy crop trimmed to 57.4 mln T-Abiove

SAO PAULO, June 5 (Reuters) - Brazil's 2008/09 (Oct-Sept) soybean crop that just finished harvesting in the past weeks was estimated at 57.4 million tonnes, down slightly from the 57.7 million tonnes projected in April, Vegetable Oils Industry Association (Abiove) said Friday.
In the commercial year of 2009/10 (Feb-Jan) for the industry, Abiove revised upward its forecast for exports of whole beans to 24.8 million tonnes from 24.5 million tonnes estimated two months ago.
The association gave no reason for the revision in its forecast in the report released Friday.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, June 5 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks flip-flopped throughout Friday's session, with the major indexes ending split as investors paused to consider conflicting signals in monthly U.S. jobs data.

Trading was choppy as the stock market initially started higher and then drifted lower as investors reassessed the implications of the latest jobs report.

The Labor Department reported that employers cut 345,000 jobs in May -- substantially less than analysts had forecast -- but the U.S. unemployment rate hit 9.4 percent, its highest since 1983.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 12.89 points, or 0.15 percent, to 8,763.13. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> declined 2.37 points, or 0.25 percent, to 940.09. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> dipped 0.60 of a point, or 0.03 percent, to 1,849.42.

On Monday, effective at the start of trading, Citigroup will be replaced in the blue-chip Dow average with Travelers . The large insurance company, known for its red umbrella logo, was once one of the crown jewels in the Citigroup empire before the financial giant was rocked by the credit crisis.

So after the weekend, when trading resumes on Monday, GM will be replaced in the Dow by Cisco Systems Inc , which makes the routers that drive the Internet.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, June 5 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended lower in choppy trading on Friday, as misgivings about the latest government jobs report undermined an early surge to a seven-month high above $70 a barrel.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, July crude settled down 37 cents, or 0.54 percent, at $68.44 a barrel, after trading from $67.54 to $70.32, the highest front-month intraday price since $70.46 was struck on Nov. 5.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - July down 4-1/2 cents at $12.25-1/2 a bushel. Rally in the dollar, weak crude oil and profit-taking before the weekend and after Thursday's strong rally to 8-1/2 month high, led by fund buying.

Tight soy stocks continue to limit downside moves in soy in addition to bouts of fund buying as a hedge against inflation.

CBOT-SOYOIL - July down 0.61 cent at 39.73 cents a pound. Profit-taking following rally earlier this week combined with drop in crude oil prices weigh on market.

FCPO-JAKARTA, June 5 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures dropped 1.9 percent on Friday, their biggest one-day fall in nearly two weeks, as investors pocketed profits, traders said.

The benchmark August contract on the Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange closed down 49 ringgit at the day's low of 2,520 ringgit ($721.44) per tonne, after rising as high as 2,611 ringgit. Overall volume was 16,906 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, June 5 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets rose on Friday to their highest levels in more than eight months, supported by broad global recovery hopes, and led by financial shares such as DBS and Maybank.

Stocks in Southeast Asia notched up strong gains on the week as share markets rallied and oil prices rose towards $70 a barrel. By 0950 GMT, the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> was up 1.2 percent.

Singapore's index <.FTSTI> rose 1.4 percent, with top lender DBS Group and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp both gaining 1.4 percent.

Malaysia <.KLSE> rose 1.1 percent to its highest since Sept. 9, with Maybank up 1.8 percent and Bumiputra-Commerce adding 3.5 percent.

Thailand's stock index <.SETI> rose for a third day, up 1.9 percent to its highest since Sept. 29, with Bangkok Bank and Kasikornbank both gaining more than 3 percent.

DJI Weekly: Rangy mode with bias upside potential


Market looks may continue to move in range trading with bias upside potential in near term market. Resistance is at 9000-9200, while downside support is pegged at 8200.

KLSE Weekly: Rallied is likely to continue


Good closing for the week at new high had beautified further the overall positive technical outlook. Currently, we continue to look for the upside resistance at 1080-1090 followed by 1100. To the downside, support is stood at 1040-1030.

FKLI Weekly: Peakless


Bulls maintain its upward posture to waltz higher. As for now, we continue to look for the upside resistance at 1080-1090 followed by 1100-1120. While, downside support is pegged at 1045-1050.

FCPO Weekly: losing upside momentum


Market failed to sustain at 2600 mark to end at week's low had weakened further the immediate technical landscape. Market is losing its upside momentum, therefore we are now looking for the downside support at 2350. Violation of it may provide more room to downside potential. To the upside, resistance is at 2648-2665.