Wednesday, May 2, 2012

RTRS- China set to buy even more U.S. soy -Oil World

HAMBURG, May 1 (Reuters) - China is likely to buy even more U.S.-origin soybeans in the near term because of poor South American crops, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

"Chinese buyers will increasingly shift to U.S.-origin in the coming weeks because South American supplies are becoming tighter," Oil World said.

Chicago soybean futures rose to their highest levels since 2008 last week largely on expectations looming poor soybean crops in Argentina and Brazil will transfer demand to the United States. [ID:nL3E8FP6SJ] [ID:nL3E8FR6PG] Large sales of U.S. soybeans were reported to China on Monday. [ID:nL1E8FU307]

"We expect that insufficient South American supplies will result in a contra-seasonal increase in U.S. soybean exports to China in June/August 2012, the last quarter of this season," Oil World said.

"In our preliminary estimate we expect U.S. soybean exports of at least 2.3 million tonnes to China in June/August 2012 compared with 0.6 million tonnes in the same three months of last year."

The good export outlook means Oil World has cut its forecast of U.S. end-August 2012 soybean stocks to 5.80 million tonnes, down from its March forecast of 6.30 million tonnes and down from 5.85 million tonnes in August 2011.

China's soybean demand is likely to keep increasing in coming months, it said.

"U.S. exports to China will gain momentum and, most likely, reach a new record in Sept./Feb. 2012/13," it said.

RTRS- Indonesia lifts crude palm oil tax to 19.5 pct for May

JAKARTA, April 30 (Reuters) - Top global palm oil producer Indonesia will increase its export tax for crude palm oil ( CPO) to 19.5 percent for May from 18 percent in April due to higher international prices, a trade ministry official said on Monday.

The government will also raise its raise the export tax for RBD palm olein to 10 percent in May, versus 9 percent in April, Deddy Saleh, the director general of foreign trade at the trade ministry, told Reuters.

Indonesia sets its commodity export taxes on a monthly basis.

" CPO export tax for May is 19.5 percent because its price in international market in the last one month was increasing," Saleh said.

He also said the government would leave its tax on cocoa beans unchanged at 5 percent for May due to stable international prices.

Southeast Asia's largest economy has a palm export tax system that aims to boost downstream industries, secure domestic supplies and reduce volatility in cooking oil prices.

The tax rate for the following month is calculated based on CIF Rotterdam prices, Malaysian benchmark and Jakarta futures prices.

By the midday break on Monday, benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.1 percent to 3,501 ringgit ($1,155) per tonne. Throughout April, prices have gained about 2 percent. [POI/]

Last August, Indonesia set new palm oil export tax rules which include setting the minimum level for the CPO export tax at 7.5 percent versus 1.5 percent previously. [ID:nL4E7JQ1AG]

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 1 (Reuters) - The Dow closed at its highest level in more than four years on Tuesday after U.S. manufacturing expanded at a faster pace than expected in April, easing jitters about a slowdown in the economic recovery.

The Dow now sits at levels not seen since December 2007. The gains leave the benchmark S&P 500 within about 16 points of a high reached in May 2008. A convincing break above that level could set the market up for more gains, traders said.

"That's where a lot of traders' eyes are right now - it might be tough to get through there the first time," said Michael James, senior trader at Wedbush Morgan in Los Angeles.

The Institute for Supply Management said U.S. manufacturing growth came in at its strongest rate in 10 months in April. That reading suggested the economy remains resilient after indications it had lost momentum at the start of the second quarter. [ID:nL1E8G167H]

Early gains this year have been held in check in recent weeks on worries about U.S. economic growth.

Tuesday's move higher, which came in a relatively quiet market with European exchanges closed for May Day holidays, drove the S&P 500 within striking distance of its recent high at 1,422.38.

"If we get up there, fail and don't retrace too much before the weekend, I would not be surprised to see it move through," said James.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 65.69 points, or 0.50 percent, to 13,279.32 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> rose 7.91 points, or 0.57 percent, to 1,405.82. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> added 4.08 points, or 0.13 percent, to 3,050.44.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 1 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures started May by bounding higher on Tuesday and to a five-week high as U.S. manufacturing growth in April hit the highest in 10 months, boosting the demand outlook for oil after recent data showed the economy had lost steam.

The closely watched index of national factory activity from the private Institute for Supply Management rose to 54.8 from 53.4 in March, beating expectations for a decline to 53. [ID:nL1E8G14JE]

A pickup in China's official purchasing managers' index for April also supported oil's demand prospects as it signaled that the Chinese economy may be recovering from a first quarter trough. [ID:nL4E8G10UO]

On Monday, crude futures had fallen, reversing course after six straight days of gains. The loss was marginal as investors hoped that the recent spate of bearish economic data will prod the U.S. Federal Reserve to adopt more monetary easing measures.

But Fed officials' views clashed on the issue.

On Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said he was not inclined to increase monetary policy accommodation, including more quantitative easing. However, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said the Fed has a "tremendous" amount of room to ease policy as he sees the United States not likely to see a "burst" of inflation. [ID:nL1E8G19N3][ID:nL1E8G10JW]

Oil investors will await the next set of inventory data, from the federal Energy Information Administration, due on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for June delivery closed $1.29 higher, or 1.23 percent, at $106.16 a barrel, the highest settlement since March 27.

* Technical buying gave the contract an added boost as it hurdled the 50-day average at $105.21, easily breaking through resistance to hit a session high of $106.43, the highest intraday price since March 28.
* J.P. Morgan Chase revised lower its 2012 price forecast for U.S. crude, also called West Texas Intermediate, by $3 to $108 a barrel as it expects the Brent/WTI spread to widen to more than $15 by the year-end. The widening will come after the spread narrows to $6 or less after a flow reversal of the Seaway pipeline from mid-May, it said. [ID: nL4E8G11XJ]

* Iraq's cude oil exports rose to 2.508 million barrels per day in April, from 2.317 million bpd in March as new offshore export terminals helped increase sales. [ID: nL5E8G10N3]

* South Sudan accused Sudan of launching an attack on an oil region of the newly independent state and said it was preparing to strike back. [ID:nL5E8G12Z2]

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended mixed, with nearby contracts down on profit-taking after a five-day rally that included last week's surge to a near four-year high, traders said.

* Back months ended higher on export demand for new-crop U.S. soybeans, and as traders unwound long July/short November spreads.

* Nearby soymeal fell after Monday's multi-year highs while back months ended higher, following trends in soybeans.

* Spot soyoil ended lower for a fourth straight day.

* USDA confirmed sales of 110,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in 2012/13, the second new-crop soy sale to China in as many days.

* China is likely to buy even more U.S.-origin soybeans in the near term because of poor South American crops, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said. [ID:nL5E8FUAG0]

* Front-month May soybeans were pressured by a second day of heavy deliveries, with CBOT reporting 757 soybean deliveries.

* CBOT reported 2,635 soyoil deliveries and no soymeal deliveries.

* USDA late Monday reported U.S. soybean planting at 12 percent complete, up from 6 percent a week earlier and ahead of the five-year average of 5 percent. [US/SOY]

* Private analyst Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor lowered his forecast of Argentina's soybean crop to 40 million tonnes, from 41.5 million previously. He also cut his estimate of Brazil's soybean crop to 65 million tonnes, from 66 million previously.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, April 30 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended lower on Monday as slower U.S. growth raised fears of a weaker global economic outlook, although losses were limited by strong export numbers and tight global oilseed supply.

U.S. economic growth cooled in the first quarter, dampening investor sentiment, but also raising expectations that the Federal Reserve may start another round of monetary easing. [ID:nCATRFE83Z]

Malaysian palm oil exports jumped close to 10 percent from a month earlier, but it was not enough to lift futures.

"The market is range-bound trading between 3,450 and 3,500 ringgit. Although exports were up, the market didn't pick up on that as some traders didn't want to take a long position ahead of the holiday tomorrow," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 1.0 percent to close at 3,471 ringgit ($1,148) per tonne. Traded volumes were thin at 21,351 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.

Malaysian palm oil exports for April improved by 9.4 percent and 10.4 percent from a month earlier, according to cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance respectively. [PALM/ITS][PALM/SGS]

Traders said strong demand from major food buyers China and India as well as the biodiesel industry in Europe remained the main reasons behind the recovery in exports.

The market also sees tight global oilseed supply as a bullish factor for palm oil. Together with a lower soybean output, analysts said that lower palm oil production would help support prices.

"A severe structural slowdown in palm oil output is under way. The downtrend will worsen over coming seasons and is one the market can no longer afford to ignore," said Standard Chartered analyst Abah Ofon in a research note.

"We recommend shorting the September 2012 BMD crude palm oil futures at the current price of 3,450 ringgit with a target of 3,250 ringgit. From third-quarter 2012, we recommend looking for any reversal in prices to the upside with a target of 3,700 ringgit."

On the technical front, a bearish target for palm oil at 3,439 ringgit remains unchanged as indicated by its wave pattern, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. [ID:nL3E8FQ29B]

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, April 30 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets rose on Monday tracking gains elsewhere in Asia, with Thai shares climbing to a new 16-year high as better-than-expected bank earnings attracted buyers.

Foreign investors bought Thai shares for 1.2 billion baht ($38.97 million) on Monday and purchased Malaysian shares for 80 million ringgit ($26.29 million), stock exchange data showed.

Thai stocks extended gains for seventh consecutive month in April, adding 2.65 percent, Southeast Asia's second best performer after Vietnam's 7.4 percent climb. Singapore's Straits Times index <.FTSTI> ended lower, while Vietnam's stock market was closed for a holiday.

Volume in most markets was low ahead of a holiday in most markets on Tuesday. Stocks markets in Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Philippines and Malaysia are closed on Tuesday, while Indonesian markets are open for trading.