HAMBURG, May 1 (Reuters) - China is likely to buy even more U.S.-origin soybeans in the near term because of poor South American crops, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
"Chinese buyers will increasingly shift to U.S.-origin in the coming weeks because South American supplies are becoming tighter," Oil World said.
Chicago soybean futures rose to their highest levels since 2008 last week largely on expectations looming poor soybean crops in Argentina and Brazil will transfer demand to the United States. [ID:nL3E8FP6SJ] [ID:nL3E8FR6PG] Large sales of U.S. soybeans were reported to China on Monday. [ID:nL1E8FU307]
"We expect that insufficient South American supplies will result in a contra-seasonal increase in U.S. soybean exports to China in June/August 2012, the last quarter of this season," Oil World said.
"In our preliminary estimate we expect U.S. soybean exports of at least 2.3 million tonnes to China in June/August 2012 compared with 0.6 million tonnes in the same three months of last year."
The good export outlook means Oil World has cut its forecast of U.S. end-August 2012 soybean stocks to 5.80 million tonnes, down from its March forecast of 6.30 million tonnes and down from 5.85 million tonnes in August 2011.
China's soybean demand is likely to keep increasing in coming months, it said.
"U.S. exports to China will gain momentum and, most likely, reach a new record in Sept./Feb. 2012/13," it said.
