Wednesday, October 31, 2012

RTRS- Concern grows about delay to S. American soy sowings -Oil World

HAMBURG, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Concern is growing that rain will cut soybean plantings in Brazil and Argentina, reducing the outlook for large soy crops in 2013, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

“Although it is still early in the season, there is now a higher risk that initial estimates of a sharp increase in soybean production by 36 million tonnes or 30 percent will not fully materialise,” it said.

This is partly because the forecast 5 million hectare or 11 percent increase in southern hemisphere soybean plantings for the harvest in early 2013 may not be achieved due to rain in South America, while yields may be lower than forecast, it said.

Oil World currently estimates southern hemisphere soybean crops in early 2013 - almost all in South America - will increase by about 36 million tonnes on the year to 153.5 million tonnes, largely because of big crops expected in Brazil and Argentina.

Global soybean consumers are counting on a bumper South American harvest to relieve current tight global supplies.

Soybean prices hit record highs on Sept. 4 after drought ravaged U.S. crops but forecasts are for a huge increase in South American crops as farmers expand soybean sowings to cash in on high prices.
Rain could endanger the crop forecasts in South America by disrupting sowings, Oil World said.

“Excessive rainfall has reportedly been received on roughly 50 percent of the total Argentine oilseed and grain area,” Oil World said.

In Brazil, soybean sowings as of Oct. 19 were still lagging by an estimated 1.3 million-1.5 million hectares behind planting intentions because of rain, it said.

“We consider it likely that in the first or second week of November there will be headlines circulating in newswires about alarming soybean planting delays of around 3 million hectares behind last year’s pace in Argentina and Brazil combined,” Oil World added.

Trader's Highlight

NYMEX- SINGAPORE, Oct 30 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures slipped to just above $85 a barrel on Tuesday, near the lowest in more than three months, as Hurricane Sandy shut East Coast refineries, roads and airports, reducing crude and fuel demand in the world's largest oil consumer.

• U.S. crude for December delivery CLc1 fell for the third straight session, down 41 cents to $85.13 a barrel by 2327 GMT. November gasoline futures RBc1 were down 0.36 percent to $2.747 a gallon, after climbing more than 5 cents on Monday.

• Hurricane Sandy, one of the biggest storms ever to hit the United States, lashed the densely populated East Coast on Monday, shutting down transportation, forcing evacuations in flood-prone areas and interrupting the presidential campaign.
• The supply of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel into the U.S. East Coast ground almost to a halt on Monday as the storm forced the closure of two-thirds of the region's refineries, its biggest pipeline, and most major ports.
• U.S. crude oil inventories were forecast to have risen for the fourth straight week as a result of increased imports, a preliminary Reuters poll of analysts showed.

Crude inventories were seen up 1.5 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 26, before Hurricane Sandy began to cause large scale disruptions to oil refineries and pipelines on the East Coast.

• Iran has no plan to close the vital shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz, Defence Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi was cited as saying by state-run Press TV.
• Russia's Gazprom GAZP.MM committed more than $38 billion to develop an East Siberian gas field and build a pipeline to the Pacific port of Vladivostok to lessen its reliance on exports to Europe and develop Asian markets.

CBOT SOYBEAN- U.S. soybean futures rallied Tuesday on bargain buying one day after posting a 2 percent decline, buoyed by a softer dollar, firm cash markets and talk of Chinese demand, traders said.

Corn futures firmed on technical buying after a six-day slide while wheat was choppy, losing ground to corn on inter-market spreads.

Volume was light as U.S. stock markets were closed for a second day and investors waited to see the full impact of Hurricane Sandy, the massive storm that wrought destruction across the eastern United States. But world shares rose modestly and the dollar fell, lending support to dollar-denominated commodities.

"Yesterday was overextended, especially in the beans. The outside markets (today) are supporting us here. The weaker dollar is giving us a chance to recover," said Art Liming, futures specialist with Citigroup in Chicago.

At the Chicago Board of Trade as of 12:20 p.m. CDT (1720 GMT), most-active January soybeans SF3 were up 11-3/4 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $15.41-1/2 per bushel. December corn CZ2 was up 3 cents at $7.40 a bushel while December wheat WZ2 was down 1-1/2 cents at $8.56-1/2 a bushel.

Soybeans drew support from talk that China was buying more U.S. soybeans, given that front-month CBOT futures Sc1 have fallen 14 percent from their all-time high of $17.94-3/4 set in early September.

"The rumors are very strong that China is buying more and more beans on this break. Crush margins in China are negative right now, but this doesn't seem to make much difference," said Bill Gary, president of Commodity Information Systems in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

Also bullish were ideas that the South American crop currently being planted might not be as large as initially expected. The grains trade is counting on a bumper South American crop to replenish global supplies after drought cut the latest soy harvests in the United States and South America.

Michael Cordonnier, president of Soybean and Corn Advisor, lowered his forecast of 2012/13 Brazilian soybean production to 80 million tonnes, from his previous estimate of 81 million to 83 million. The U.S. Department of Agriculture currently projects Brazil's crop at 81 million tonnes.

Hamburg-based oilseeds analyst Oil World cautioned that rain delays could reduce soy plantings in Brazil and Argentina.

"Although it is still early in the season, there is now a higher risk that initial estimates of a sharp increase in soybean production by 36 million tonnes or 30 percent will not fully materialize,” Oil World said.

Firm U.S. cash markets lent support as U.S. soy crushers competed with exporters for domestic supplies.

"The basis on soybeans is still extremely tight. Processors are posting good margins right now at the crush plants, and they are trying to get as many soybeans as possible," said Karl Setzer, a commodity trading adviser at MaxYield Cooperative in West Bend, Iowa.

FCPO- KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Palm oil futures fell to a near 2-week low on Tuesday as investors feared lower November export taxes in top producer Indonesia could shift demand away from competitor Malaysia while fretting over a slowing global economy.

Prices of the edible oil also came under pressure from weaker Brent crude as Sandy, one of the worst storms to hit the United States in years, shuttered U.S. refineries, curbing energy demand in the world's largest economy and weighing on other commodity markets.

"At the moment, we don't see any supportive news for palm oil. Prices are likely to stay choppy in a range of 2,430 to 2,600 ringgit," said Phillip Futures analyst Ker Chung Yang in Singapore.

"The tax cut will hurt Malaysia's palm oil prices as Indonesia's palm oil becomes more competitive in the near future. Malaysian players will certainly hope that the government will do more to counter such an act from Indonesia."

The benchmark January contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange slid 1.8 percent to 2,501 ringgit ($820) per tonne after dropping as low as 2,491 ringgit, a level unseen since Oct. 18.

Total traded volumes stood at 33,602 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Palm oil prices may still target 2,379 ringgit per tonne, as a rebound from the Oct. 3 low of 2,230 ringgit has been completed and a preceding downtrend has resumed, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Brent crude hovered above $109 a barrel on Tuesday due to the storm, and analysts expect weaker crude oil to weigh on the whole commodities asset class.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 inched up 0.2 percent in early Asian trade. The most-active May 2013 soybean oil contract DBYcv1 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 0.3 percent.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Indonesia's benchmark index closed at a record high on Tuesday as strong quarterly earnings from banks such as Bank Mandiri helped lift sentiment, and Malaysia marked a record close for the fourth straight session as investors piled into banking stocks.

Jakarta's Composite Index .JKSE closed at 4,364.59, above its previous all-time closing high of 4,356.96 on Oct. 18. Shares in PT Bank Mandiri BMRI.JK, which reported a 26 percent rise in third-quarter net profit, jumped 2.44 percent.

Malaysia's main share index .KLSE edged up 0.13 percent to 1,674.67, a new record close, on thin trading. The number three lender, Public Bank PUBM.KL, advanced 0.9 percent to 15.88 ringgit, also a record finish, supported by better-than-expected quarterly earnings.
In Bangkok, large cap energy and banking stocks such as PTT Exploration and Production PTTE.BK and Bangkok Bank BBL.BK gained after recent losses, leading the SET index .SETI to finish near a 1,300 mark.

Investors have warned about high valuations of equities in Southeast Asia after strong performance in the past three years. Concerns over broadly weaker-than-expected quarterly results of companies in the region have dented sentiment.

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

RTRS- Yen bears seen surviving any BOJ shortfall on easing front

TOKYO, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Should the Bank of Japan refrain from easing as strongly as the market expects at a policy review on Tuesday, the yen is likely to recover some lost ground, but futures and options market data suggests the yen's underlying bear trend will remain intact.

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to announce an expansion in its stimulus measures through an increase its asset buying and lending programme by at least 10 trillion yen, mostly via more government bond buying, though the measures could also include an additional small rise in purchases of riskier assets.

But bearishness towards the yen is based on more than expectations over what the central bank might do, with worries mounting over Japan's deteriorating trade balances and fiscal deficit.

"Positions in futures and options show foreign players are more convinced about a weaker yen trend compared to earlier this year or last year," said Takao Hattori, senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities in Tokyo.

Interest in buying dollar options have grown steadily, and dollar/yen risk reversals JPY1MRR=ICAP JPY3MRR=ICAP show a bias for yen puts/dollar calls gaining ground to near highest levels this year.

Expectations for a BOJ easing lifted currency speculators' bets against the yen last week, when the market posted a net short position for the first time since May at some 18,000 contracts.

If the BOJ does less than expected on the easing front, the yen could rally as speculators close these positions, but the recovery is likely to be shortlived.

Hattori reckoned the yen, which stood at around 79.70 to the dollar 0510 GMT on Monday, could recover to 78.80 to the dollar if short covering of the 18,000 contracts was triggered.

Hiroshi Maeba, head of FX trading Japan for UBS in Tokyo, said the scale of a yen recovery would depend on by how much any central bank measures undershot the market's expecations, but he also doubted whether the recovery would have legs.

"I doubt such a yen buying would push the dollar/yen below 79 yen," Maeba said, adding that he didn't expect the dollar to fall to year lows around 76-77 yen.

"What's changed since earlier this year is that yen buying has clearly been shrinking, flows surrounding the yen have changed," he said, noting factors like falling Japanese exports and Asian central banks' failure to boost yen assets.

While the dollar's downside may be limited, Japanese and foreign players are looking to sell the dollar near the 2012 highs around 84 yen, traders and analysts say.

"Foreigners see the yen as overvalued and want a catalyst to sell the yen," said Naohiko Baba, Japan chief economist at Goldman Sachs.

If the BOJ's move matches the most-expected scenario, the yen may ease by 0.3-0.4 yen against the dollar, but if the BOJ eases by less than expected the yen could recover 0.3-0.4 yen, Baba said.

For the dollar to firm to 80-81 yen, the spread between two-year U.S. Treasury and JGB yields would have to widen to 30 basis points from 20 bps currently, Baba said.

And for the dollar to weaken to 78.50 yen, the spread would have to narrow to 15 bps, he added.

Fundamentals, notably Japan's worsening trade position, suggest the yen is likely to move to a weaker trading range, even if the potential shifts in interest rate differentials don't point to a major breakout from current levels.

Japan's trade deficit from January to September was about 4.8 trillion yen, nearly double the deficit of around 2.5 trillion yen for the whole of 2011, Daisuke Karakama, market economist for Mizuho Corporate Bank, wrote in a recent research note.

"The interest rate differentials suggest the dollar/yen is not yet at a structural turning point, but supply/demand balances appear to point to a change," Karakama wrote. "We must brace for an upward shift in the (dollar/yen) range."

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Oct 29 (Reuters) - U.S. gasoline and heating oil futures gained while U.S. Treasuries also rose on Monday, as economic worries over Hurricane Sandy fueled safe-haven buying in thin trading as the powerful storm began to batter the U.S. East Coast.

The storm closed Wall Street on the anniversary of the 1929 stock market crash. It was the stock market's first weather-related closure in 27 years, and other markets closed early as investors braced for the impact of Sandy, one of the biggest storms ever to slam the U.S. eastern seaboard.

U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Tuesday, but the two-largest U.S. stock exchange operators, NYSE Euronext NYX.N and Nasdaq OMX Group NDAQ.O, intend to reopen Wednesday, conditions permitting.

 
Trading was thin in U.S. foreign exchange, fixed income, precious metals and energy markets as public transportation was shut in New York and parts of lower Manhattan were evacuated.

"You have uncertainties now. You have these safe haven purchases. People are trying to figure out the economic impact from the storm," said Larry Milstein, head of government and agency trading at R.W. Pressprich & Co in New York.

"Right now it's the easy way to buy Treasuries and wait to see what happens," Milstein said.

Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR traded 8/32 higher in price to yield 1.7206 percent.

U.S. heating oil futures gained, touching the highest level relative to U.S. crude oil on record, as dealers hedged against the risk of power outages and flooding from Sandy that could damage refineries and keep production shut for weeks.

The crack spread, the difference in value between a barrel heating oil and a barrel of crude oil, touched $45.15 a barrel.

"Markets will be watching for reports of damage to energy infrastructure, notably refineries, post-Sandy, given the state of extremely low gasoil inventories as we move into winter season," Deutsche Bank analysts said.

Gasoline RBc1 futures reached $2.8115 a gallon, the highest since Oct. 17, before paring gains as traders factored in the reduced demand for fuel with the almost total shut-down of eastern seaboard roads and airports.
In Europe stocks, led by insurers, fell on expectations Sandy-related damage will boost claims, while political jitters in debt-laden Italy cast shadows on the euro zone.

 
Euro zone blue chips .STOXX50E shed 0.7 percent to 2,478.84 points after former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi threatened to bring down the government of his successor, Mario Monti, which has appeased markets with its austerity agenda.

The broader MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS lost 0.26 percent to 327.74 points - on track for its worst monthly performance since May as doubts grow over the effect of the latest round of central bank efforts to boost activity.

The euro fell against the dollar and yen, hurt by uncertainty over whether Greece can agree to a deal on austerity and with no sign of when Spain might request aid.

The single currency was expected to stay subdued against the dollar and the yen, with investors preferring safe-haven currencies on renewed worries about weak earnings from top companies in the region.

The single currency was down 0.3 percent at $1.2898 EUR=, not far from a two-week low of $1.2881.

The dollar rose to a session high against the yen ahead of a Bank of Japan policy review on Tuesday at which the central bank is expected to further ease monetary policy.

The dollar was last up 0.2 percent at 79.80, the session peak JPY=.

U.S. consumer spending rose solidly in September, putting the economy on a firmer footing heading into the fourth quarter even though households had to pull back on saving to fund purchases.

But the rise in consumer spending will mask a pullback late in the year as businesses hold investments in anticipation of higher taxes and cuts in federal spending that will kick in beginning early next year if Congress doesn't act, said Ellen Zentner, senior U.S. economist at Nomura Securities in New York.

Positive surprises, including third-quarter U.S. growth data and signs of stabilization in China, have failed to persuade investors that the world economy can achieve lasting growth as multinational global companies have forecast weak revenues.

NYMEX-SINGAPORE, Oct 30 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures slipped to just above $85 a barrel on Tuesday, near the lowest in more than three months, as Hurricane Sandy shut East Coast refineries, roads and airports, reducing crude and fuel demand in the world's largest oil consumer.

 
• U.S. crude for December delivery CLc1 fell for the third straight session, down 41 cents to $85.13 a barrel by 2327 GMT. November gasoline futures RBc1 were down 0.36 percent to $2.747 a gallon, after climbing more than 5 cents on Monday.

• Hurricane Sandy, one of the biggest storms ever to hit the United States, lashed the densely populated East Coast on Monday, shutting down transportation, forcing evacuations in flood-prone areas and interrupting the presidential campaign.

• The supply of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel into the U.S. East Coast ground almost to a halt on Monday as the storm forced the closure of two-thirds of the region's refineries, its biggest pipeline, and most major ports.

• U.S. crude oil inventories were forecast to have risen for the fourth straight week as a result of increased imports, a preliminary Reuters poll of analysts showed. EIA/S

Crude inventories were seen up 1.5 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 26, before Hurricane Sandy began to cause large scale disruptions to oil refineries and pipelines on the East Coast.

• Iran has no plan to close the vital shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz, Defence Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi was cited as saying by state-run Press TV.

CBOT SOYBEAN-Oct 29 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell more than 2 percent on Monday, their biggest single-day drop in nearly a month, on crop-friendly weather forecasts for top producer Brazil, traders said.

• Uncertainty about the impact of Hurricane Sandy on the U.S. financial sector added pressure. Stock market executives, regulators and brokers agreed to close the U.S. stock markets again on Tuesday but a final decision had not been made yet to reopen on Wednesday.

• After soaking Brazil's southern soy states of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana, storms are expected to move northward in early November into the country's main center-west soy belt and northeast regions, which need more moisture.

• Local analyst Safras e Mercado said 28 percent of Brazil's crop had been sown, down from 41 percent at this time a year ago, but above the average 24 percent.

• Sales of Brazil's 2012/2013 soybean crop advanced one percentage point to 48 percent in the past week after holding steady for nearly a month, analyst Celeres said. The pace was well ahead of the five-year average of 23 percent.

• The U.S. Department of Agriculture said its weekly U.S. crop progress report, normally released on Monday afternoons, would be delayed due to federal office closings ahead of Hurricane Sandy. The USDA said the rescheduled release time would be announced when offices reopen.

FCPO-SINGAPORE, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures dropped on Monday after a long weekend break, as losses in other vegetable oil markets during the holiday and an export tax cut by Indonesia prompted traders to book profit.

Last Friday, U.S. soyoil BOZ2 lost 1 percent while the China soyoil contract DBYcv1 edged down 1.4 percent. Malaysian financial markets were closed for the Eid al-Adha holiday.

Selling pressure also mounted after the midday break on news that Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, would cut its palm export tax for November, a move that could hamper demand for Malaysian products.

Indonesia will cut the export tax to 9 percent, down from 13.5 percent in October, and lower the export tax for refined palm olein to 3 percent in November from 6 percent in October.

"Part of the fall is due to the market catching up after the holiday. The significantly lower export duty by Indonesia also put some pressure on prices," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

The benchmark January contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange slid 2.4 percent to close at 2,540 ringgit ($831) per tonne.

Total traded volumes stood at 36,345 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Palm oil prices rose to a near 1-month high at 2,615 ringgit last Thursday, after cargo surveyors reported higher Malaysia's palm exports for Oct. 1-25 compared to a month ago.

Traders will be looking for more trading cues from the full-month exports figure for October on Wednesday.

Technicals were bearish as a bullish target at 2,676 ringgit per tonne has been aborted, and a target at 2,379 ringgit has been established, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
Brent crude oil fell below $109 a barrel on Monday as refineries along the U.S. East Coast wound down operations ahead of the approach of Hurricane Sandy, reducing crude use in the world's largest oil consumer. O/R

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 edged down 0.7 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active May 2013 soybean oil contract DBYcv1 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 1.4 percent lower.

REGIONAL EQUITY-BANGKOK, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Malaysian shares ended slightly higher on Monday as favourable earnings underpinned buying in banks such as Public Bank PUBM.KL, while Philippine shares regained some ground lost early as a Moody's upgrade lifted sentiment in banking stocks.

Malaysia's main index .KLSE ended at 1,672.56, above Friday's record close of 1,671.89. Public Bank, which reported quarterly earnings growth early in the month, extended gains for an eighth session, up 2.1 percent to a record 15.74 ringgit.

Banks outperformed the broader market in Manila .PSI after Moody's Investors Service upgraded the foreign currency deposit ratings of four Philippine banks, including BDO Unibank BDO.PS, which was up 1 percent.

Weaker-than-expected third-quarter results of Southeast Asian firms have broadly weighed on sentiment in the region. Thai SET index .SETI edged down 0.17 percent after last week's 1.1 percent fall.

Singapore .FTSTI fell 0.9 percent to the lowest close in more than one month, with Citigroup saying that third-quarter corporate earnings will likely leave investors with weakened expectations.

Monday, October 29, 2012

RTRS- Indonesia to cut crude palm oil export tax to 9 pct in Nov

JAKARTA, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, will cut its export tax for crude palm oil to 9 percent for November, down from 13.5 percent in October, and leave its tax on cocoa bean exports unchanged at 5 percent, a trade ministry official said on Monday.

The government will also lower the export tax for RBD palm olein to 3 percent in November, versus 6 percent in October.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Oct 26 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks finished flat on Friday, recovering from moderate declines as bargain hunters rushed in to buy Apple, lifting it off its lows, and scooped up other stocks recently battered by disappointing results.

For the week, though, stocks slid, following a series of weak results, especially from U.S. multinational companies.

Apple's stock pulled back sharply from its session low, although it still ended down 0.9 percent at $604. The world's largest publicly traded company surprised analysts late Thursday with its weak margin outlook, as well as with its quarterly earnings and iPad sales that fell short of expectations. The stock had fallen as low as $591 in Friday's session.

The PHLX semiconductor index <.SOX> rose 0.5 percent. A number of companies, including Intel , bounced back from losses last week, when the dominant chipmaker reported net earnings and revenue that missed estimates. In Friday's session, Intel's stock gained 1.2 percent to close at $21.95.

"As people chose to buy the dips in Apple, I think that gave people a little bit more conviction to buy other names," said Michael James, senior trader at Wedbush Morgan, in Los Angeles.

"You've also had a continued theme of buying semiconductor stocks after disappointing earnings. That's frustrating those that are short and has led to continued covering."

Investors had a muted reaction to U.S. data showing a slightly better-than-expected pace of growth for the economy.

The 2 percent annual rate of growth for U.S. gross domestic product for the third quarter confirmed analysts' views that the economic recovery will be slow.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> edged up 3.53 points, or 0.03 percent, to close at 13,107.21. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> dipped 1.03 points, or 0.07 percent, to finish at 1,411.94. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> gained 1.83 points, or 0.06 percent, to end at 2,987.95.

For the week, the Dow fell 1.8 percent, the S&P 500 lost 1.5 percent and the Nasdaq dropped 0.6 percent.

Lighter revenues have been a concern this earnings season. Just 36.9 percent of S&P 500 companies so far have reported revenue that beat forecasts, compared with the 62 percent that typically exceed expectations, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Earnings have fared better, with 62.5 percent above expectations - almost even with the 62 percent that is historically seen.

Amazon.com Inc escaped the market's malaise, climbing 6.9 percent to $238.24 as analysts said the online retailer's spending will hurt margins, but boost profit in the long run.
Adding to uncertainty was the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 6 - a little over a week away. Along with earnings and growth worries, concerns about further political loggerheads have helped push the benchmark S&P 500 index below a key support level, the 50-day moving average, at around 1,434.

Many analysts expect the S&P 500's retreat to wane near 1,400 or 1,375, as the Federal Reserve's latest stimulus policy puts a floor under stock prices.

Some of investors' attention on Friday may have been diverted from the market to following news about Hurricane Sandy, which could make landfall along the East Coast, including New York, early next week. By Friday afternoon, the storm had killed at least 41 people as it tore across the Caribbean.

The New York Stock Exchange said it plans on business as usual, adding that it has contingency plans to keep the market running - relying on back-up power generation facilities, if necessary. The NYSE also said in a statement that it will make accommodations for critical staff and traders.

In addition, NASDAQ OMX said in a statement that it has plans to make sure its systems are ready, noting that it will be regularly communicating with its members before, up to and after the storm.

Among other stocks that finished Friday's session with a gain, Honeywell International edged up 0.1 percent to $61.49. The diversified U.S. manufacturer, whose products range from aircraft electronics to building control systems, said on Friday that it would raise its quarterly dividend by 10 percent to 41 cents per share, starting with the fourth-quarter dividend payment on Dec. 10.

Volume was moderate on Friday, with about 6.02 billion shares traded on the NYSE, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, compared with daily average volume of 6.51 billion for the year to date.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Oct 26 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures edged up for a second day on Friday, but posted a weekly loss, recovering from an early slide as crude oil prices received support from strong refined products futures that were lifted by Hurricane Sandy's threat to East Coast refining.

CBOT SOYBEAN-U.S. soybeans slipped for a second straight day on signs of waning U.S. exports and improving crop weather prospects in South America that could lead to bumper output in Brazil and Argentina.

Chicago Board of Trade November soybeans were down 2-3/4 cents per bushel at $15.61-1/4. December corn was down 4-1/4 cents at $7.37-3/4 and December wheat was down 9 at $8.63-3/4.

Wheat ended down 1 percent for the week, corn was down 3 percent and soybeans ended the week up 1.7 percent.

Corn drew little buying interest and pressure remained on corn and also on soybeans because of lingering bearishness from the release on Thursday of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) weekly export sales report.

The worst U.S. drought in half a century drove prices to historic highs this summer and there are signs demand is waning as end-users back away from the market due to poor profits.

The USDA said corn sales totaled 142,400 tonnes, below estimates for 150,000 to 250,000. Soybean sales were also lower than expected at 522,200, versus estimates of 650,000 to 850,000 tonnes.

"U.S. soybean exports were pretty low and you are looking at a big rebound in South American supplies," said Brett Cooper, a senior markets manager at INTL FCStone Australia.

The market expects a bumper South American soybean crop with improving weather prospects for November seedings.

Improved crop weather seen early on Friday in Argentina and Brazil should boost plantings and emergence of corn and soybeans, said Don Keeney, meteorologist for MDA EarthSat Weather.

"The six- to 10-day (forecast) is for drier weather in central Argentina so all of Argentina will catch a break," he said.

Excessive wet weather has been slowing fieldwork in Argentina, and dry weather has been an issue in portions of Brazil. Now, it appears Brazil may receive some timely rains.

"The six- to 10-day is wetter for central and northern Brazil where rain is needed so this will certainly improve planting prospects," Keeney said.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rose to a near 1-month high on Thursday on encouraging export data that showed firm demand and some short-covering ahead of a holiday weekend in parts of Asia.

Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services reported on Thursday an 11 percent jump in Malaysia's Oct. 1-25 palm exports from a month ago. Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance, reported a 9 percent improvement for the same period.

Prices posted a 4.1 percent gain for the week although some investors were still cautious, as after a two-day meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve there was no announcement of further stimulus that could boost global economic growth and commodity demand.

"At the moment, there's no cue that crude palm oil can take on the macroeconomic front. On the vegetable oils front, rising exports is something that is encouraging but that's not going to set the price trend," said Ker Chung Yang, investment analyst with Phillip Futures in Singapore.

"For the upcoming two weeks, the market will still be directionless. We have U.S. elections and MPOB (Malaysian Palm Oil Board) stocks data in early November, from now until then there's still some time and there's no main theme that palm oil can take its cue from," he added.

The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 1 percent to close at 2,603 ringgit ($857) per tonne. Earlier, prices rose as high as 2,615 ringgit, a level last seen on Sept. 28.

Total traded volumes surged to 36,498 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared with the usual 25,000 lots.

Malaysian financial markets will be closed on Friday for the Eid al-Adha holiday.

Palm oil prices have recovered from the near 3-year low of 2,255 ringgit they touched this month, but Malaysia's Affin Investment Bank warned in a research note that high stocks, demand risks and vulnerable sentiment could limit further price rises.

In a bullish sign for palm oil, Brent crude oil rose above $108 per barrel on Thursday, consolidating after seven days of falls as better-than-expected data suggested the world economy was recovering, but analysts said the overall outlook for oil prices was bearish.
In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery edged up 0.4 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active May 2013 soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 0.4 percent lower.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Thai stocks hit one-month low on Friday, posting their biggest weekly loss since July, as looming legal hurdles on 3G auction triggered selling in telecom shares while Vietnamese stocks rebounded after two sessions of losses.

Thailand's main SET index <.SETI> ended down 1.2 percent at 1,281.81, the lowest close since Sept. 26, falling almost 2 percent on the week, to become Southeast Asia's worst performer.

Leading decliners, Advanced Info Service , the biggest telecom firm, dropped 2.5 percent as newspapers reported an investigation by the National Anti-Corruption Commission loomed over last month's auction of third-generation (3G) telecom operating licences. 

The Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange's VN Index <.VNI> gained 0.5 percent after a combined 1.97 percent fall over the past two sessions. It is down 1.6 percent on the week.

Stock markets in Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines were closed on Friday. Malaysia <.KLSE> climbed to an all-time closing high on Thursday, up 0.33 percent on the week, outperforming its regional peers.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

RTRS- MALAYSIA-PRESS-Malaysia, Indonesia to discuss palm oil collaboration in November-The Edge

Malaysian and Indonesian senior officials are set to meet in November to discuss potential areas of collaboration between the world's two largest palm oil producing nations.

Speaking at a press conference after officiating the 2012 National Seminar on Oil Palm Mechanisation, Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Bernard Dompok said the two nations had brought forward its annual meeting to early November.

"We have agreed to look at many areas such as the amount of biodiesel that should be allowed in the market and how much area of old palm trees should be replanted," the minister said.

RTRS- Light rains to shift into Brazil's center soy belt - Somar

SAO PAULO, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Irregular rains will fall over Brazil's drier-than-usual central soy belt in coming days before returning to the country's soaked south at the end of the week, local forecaster Somar said on Wednesday.

A cold front hit No. 2 soybean-producing state Parana and No. 3 soy state Rio Grande do Sul over the weekend. Parts of both received more than 60 millimeters (2.5 inches) of rain in the past three days, bringing October rains above average.

Warmer Atlantic Ocean waters have largely kept those rains from pushing north into top soy state Mato Grosso, but light rain should fall over the state in the next few days, Somar said in its daily weather bulletin.

The central part of Mato Grosso has received 139mm of rainfall so far in October compared with an average of 155mm for the entire month. In southern Mato Grosso just 41mm have fallen, putting that region 69 percent below the October average.

The southern part of Mato Grosso typically plants later than the central farms in the state, which is often the first region to plant.

The bulk of Brazil's soybeans are planted in late October and early November. Analysts so far are maintaining their forecasts for a record crop of around 82 million tonnes, which should allow Brazil to leapfrog the United States in soybean production for the first time.

Local analyst Safras e Mercado even said it had raised its estimate to 82.5 million tonnes from its July projection of 82.3 million tonnes on Monday due to farmers' expanding the area planted with soy. The firm said it was too early to worry about below-average rains in Mato Grosso.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Oct 24 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended lower for a second day on Wednesday, as investors soured on another round of underwhelming corporate results and the Federal Reserve said it would stick to its stimulus plan until the job market improves.

The S&P 500 has lost 3.6 percent over the past five sessions, hurt by weak earnings outlooks and top-line revenue misses from large multinational companies. The index is now down 3.9 percent from its closing high of 1,465.77 set on Sept. 14.

Boeing BA.N bucked the trend with a more optimistic outlook, but it could not break away from the rest of the market as it was pulled into negative territory in the afternoon. Shares of the defense and aerospace company, a Dow component, fell 0.2 percent to $72.71.

The Fed, in its latest policy statement, said it would keep buying $40 billion in mortgage-backed debt per month to keep interest rates low until the job picture gets better.

"Unemployment is staying where it is, new jobs are minimal, and the Fed is staying defensive," said Allan Flader, financial advisor at RBC Wealth Management, in Phoenix. "I would be surprised if they went to a neutral stance any time soon. You need to see more credible increases in employment, and it's just not happening yet."

On Sept. 13, the Fed unveiled a third round of economic stimulus, or quantitative easing, known as QE3.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI shed 25.19 points, or 0.19 percent, to close at 13,077.34. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX dropped 4.36 points, or 0.31 percent, to 1,408.75. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC slipped 8.77 points, or 0.29 percent, to end at 2,981.70.

During the regular session, Facebook Inc FB.O shares soared 19.1 percent to $23.23 a day after the social networking company's quarterly results showed a surprising surge in mobile advertising revenue.

Shares of Apple AAPL.O, scheduled to report after Thursday's close, rose 0.6 percent to $616.83.

The day's other gainers included Dow Chemical Co DOW.N, the largest U.S. chemical maker, which said late on Tuesday it would cut 5 percent of its work force and shut 20 plants to counter a slowing global economy. Its stock jumped 4.7 percent to $29.88.
With results in from 186 of the S&P 500 companies, 59.1 percent have reported earnings above analysts' expectations, below the 62 percent long-term average, according to Thomson Reuters data.

For revenue , just 38.2 percent of companies have beaten analysts' expectations, while 61.8 percent have fallen short. In a typical quarter, 62 percent of companies beat estimates.

Sales of new U.S. single-family homes jumped 5.7 percent in September to the highest level in nearly 2-1/2 years, offering more evidence that the housing market's recovery is improving.

Volume was roughly 6.2 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, compared with the year-to-date average daily closing volume of 6.51 billion.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Oct 24 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell for a fifth straight session on Wednesday as rising U.S. crude inventories and weak euro zone economic data offset supportive signs that Chinese petroleum demand could stage a recovery.

Crude oil stocks in the United States jumped 5.9 million barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a weekly report, well above the expected increase of 1.9 million barrels in a Reuters survey of analysts.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose for a third day, rising to a three-week high on firm U.S. cash markets for soybeans and soymeal, along with reminders of continued strong
export demand, traders said.

* The November soybean contract SX2 settled above its 100-day moving average for the first time in two weeks.

• December soymeal SMZ2 hit a three-week top, while December soyoil BOZ2 ended higher, but stayed inside of Tuesday's trading range.

• USDA confirmed sales of 105,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in 2012/13.

• Analysts expect USDA's weekly export sales report on Thursday to show U.S. soybean sales in the latest week at 650,000 tonnes to 850,000 tonnes.

• The economy of top global soy buyer China is making a slow recovery from its weakest period of growth in three years, a survey of purchasing managers indicated, with new orders and output at their highest in months.
• Gains in deferred CBOT soybean and soymeal contracts were limited by expectations of a record-large South American soy harvest in early 2013. Brazilian forecaster Somar predicted irregular rains over Brazil's drier-than-normal central soy belt in coming days while the soaked southern belt should see weekend rains.
• Malaysian palm oil futures inched higher as investors bet on increased demand surrounding the upcoming Diwali festival, although concerns about record-high stocks kept prices in a tight range.
FCPO- KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures inched up on Wednesday as investors bet on increased festival demand for the tropical oil, although prices were locked in a tight range due to lingering concerns over record-high stocks.

The upcoming Diwali festival celebrated by major vegetable oil importer India could lead buyers to snap up palm oil, easing a growing stockpile in the world's No.2 producer.

In addition, cargo surveyor data showing Malaysia's palm exports grew as much as 17 percent for Oct. 1-20 from a month ago also lifted sentiment.
"Exports were good, but inventory is still on the high side," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"But production should be toppish in the last quarter as we move into the monsoon season, while at the same time demand is picking up because of the festive season," he added.

Palm oil production hits a seasonal peak in the last quarter of the year before slowing, lifting traders' hopes this will reduce stocks from a record high of 2.5 million tonnes in September.

The benchmark January contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange edged up 1.5 percent to close at 2,578 ringgit ($842) per tonne. Prices traded in a tight range between 2,551 and 2,578 ringgit per tonne.

Total traded volumes stood at 20,953 lots of 25 tonnes each, thinner than the usual 25,000 lots.

Technical analysis showed a bullish target for Malaysian palm oil remains unchanged at 2,676 ringgit per tonne, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
Palm oil prices are expected to rise sharply in the coming months on brisk buying interest as global importers seek cheaper alternatives to competing soyoil, said Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World on Tuesday.

Analysts also say the Malaysian government's move to slash export taxes on crude palm oil and scrap duty free export quotas on the crude grade in January 2013 could benefit industry players in the long term.
"Despite the short-term pain for upstream players, we reckon the change is positive for the long run as it should result in better CPO prices after the high inventory is reduced,” Kenanga Investment’s Alan Lim Seong Chun said in a research report on Wednesday.

In a bullish sign for palm oil, Brent crude rose on Wednesday, snapping a six-day losing streak, after economic data from China suggested a gradual recovery in the world's No. 2 oil consumer, though weak European data kept the gain slim.
In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 inched up 0.6 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active May 2013 soybean oil contract DBYcv1 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 0.1 percent higher.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Thai stocks posted their biggest daily loss in three months on Wednesday after quarterly earnings so far failed to boost further buying interest while Malaysia and Indonesia pared early losses as investors picked large caps.

Bangkok's SET index .SETI finished down 1.2 percent at a one-week closing low of 1,295, breaking below a key chart support at 1,300.

Top lender Bangkok Bank BBL.BK dropped 3.3 percent to a near five-month low of 178 baht, extending last week's losses after its third-quarter results missed expectations.

"The market was a bit over priced. Earnings performances so far were not so positive and investors were wary of chasing up the price increases," said Pichai Lertsupongkij, head of investment advisory services at broker Thanachart Securities.

Jakarta's Composite Index .JKSE reversed its early losses to edge up 0.12 percent while Malaysia's benchmark stock index .KLSE rebounded from an earlier drop to end 0.19 percent up at an all-time closing high of 1,667.99.

Market heavyweights led the pack, with Astra International ASII.JK up 1.3 percent after three sessions of losses, while financial firm CIMB Group Holdings CIMB.KL rose for a second session, adding 0.7 percent.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

RTRS- China may have to curb soy imports up to Feb 2013-Oil World

HAMBURG, Oct 23 (Reuters) - China may have to curb its huge soybean imports up until February 2013 because of tight supplies and a continued trend of heavy Chinese buying could push Chicago prices up again, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

“World exports of soybeans will suffer an unprecedented decline in Sept. 2012/Feb. 2013,” Oil World said. “We now forecast exports at 38.0 million tonnes, a four-year low and an impressive 4.8 million tonnes below a year earlier.”

Soybean futures hit an all-time high on Sept. 4 after drought ravaged U.S. crops following poor South American soybean harvests earlier in the year.
Soybean prices have slipped from the peak but the world faces tight supplies until the new crop from Brazil and Argentina enter the global market around March 2013.

“This will require demand rationing, primarily in China, the world’s largest importer of soybeans,” Oil World said.

However, China’s September 2012 soybean imports were still rising at 5.0 million tonnes, up by 0.8 million tonnes on September 2011, it said.

“But sizeable year-on-year reductions in Chinese imports will be inevitable in Oct. 2012/Feb. 2013, resulting in a sizable decline in Chinese soybean stocks,” it said.

The timing and volume of U.S. soybean exports to China will be a key price-determining factor to watch in coming months, it said.

“Lack of rationing of Chinese imports would initiate a renewed acceleration of soybean prices on the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) and on the world market,” it said.

RTRS- Indonesia may cut palm export tax to 10.5 pct in Nov -industry SMAR.JK WLIL.SI

JAKARTA, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, may cut its export tax for crude palm oil to 10.5 percent for November, from 13.5 percent for October, an industry group said on Tuesday.

Lower benchmark prices over the last month will prompt the government move, Fadhil Hasan, executive director of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), told Reuters.

From late August, benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures FCPOc3 have fallen by as much as 29 percent due to a slowing economic outlook and a rise in stocks, but have partly recovered to trade at about 2,541 ringgit ($833) per tonne on Tuesday.

Southeast Asia's largest economy has a palm export tax system that aims to boost downstream industries, secure domestic supplies and reduce volatility in cooking oil prices.

The tax rate for the subsequent month is calculated by government officials based on CIF Rotterdam prices, the Malaysian benchmark and Jakarta futures prices.

RTRS- Strong demand to raise palm oil prices -Oil World

HAMBURG, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Palm oil prices are likely to rise sharply in coming months on brisk buying interest as global importers seek cheaper alternatives to more expensive products including soyoil, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

“We expect a pronounced recovery in palm oil prices due to strong demand and spillover strength from other vegetable oils,” Oil World said.

Palm oil prices have been generally weak in the past two months, partly on fears about large stocks in Asian producing countries, and is currently about $250 a tonne cheaper than Argentine soyoil, Oil World said.

“Prices of crude and processed palm oils have already recovered by $30-$40 (a tonne) during the past 2-3 weeks,” it said. “Additional advances are likely to occur in the next 2-3 months, but most of the price appreciation will probably occur in the first 3-4 months of 2013.”

“We expect an increase in crude palm oil futures to a high of about 3,300 ringgit ($982 a tonne) on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives up to March or April 2013.”

The benchmark January palm oil contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia exchange was trading around 2,541 ringgit ($833) per tonne on Tuesday.
“In Rotterdam, crude palm oil prices may advance to a high of $1,150 (a tonne), approximately $300 above the current level,” Oil World added.

Global vegetable oil consumption will still rise in coming months, it forecast. The sluggish economic environment and reduced demand for biofuels will slow down the rate of increase but not cause a fall, it said.

Looming declines in export supplies of soyoil, sunflower oil and rapeseed oil will raise global demand for palm, it said.

“The current very attractive palm oil prices give an incentive to switch already now,” it added.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Oct 23 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday, driving the Dow industrials to the biggest drop since June 21, as weak results from index members DuPont and United Technologies showed profit growth is slowing.

This earnings season has so far produced a string of disappointments from companies falling short of Wall Street's expectations. With results in from 29 percent of S&P 500 companies, 37 percent have exceeded revenue forecasts, far short of the 62 percent average, and just 57.2 percent of the S&P 500 names reporting so far have beaten earnings forecasts, according to Thomson Reuters data.

That would be the worst percentage of companies beating earnings estimates since the fourth quarter of 2001 - should it stay at the current level, the data showed.

"We've had a series of misses, topped off by DuPont's pretty dismal earnings this morning," said Bruce Zaro, chief technical strategist at Delta Global Asset Management, in Boston.

"Expectations were low and results have been coming in generally lower, and that's why we're seeing weakness here," he said.

Zaro sees the S&P 500 possibly falling as low as the 1,390 to 1,400 range in the near term.

DuPont's stock lost 9.1 percent to $45.25 after the chemical company reported lower-than-expected quarterly profit and announced 1,500 job cuts. The stock was responsible for a 33-point drag on the Dow, which ended down more than 240 points.

The S&P materials sector index .GSPM fell 3 percent, largely because of DuPont.

Outlooks have been weak as well. DuPont, United Technologies and 3M Co MMM.N all cut their outlooks on Tuesday.

Apple's AAPL.O Chief Executive Tim Cook announced the iPad and iPhone maker was launching a smaller, cheaper tablet. Its 8-inch tablet is expected to compete in a market staked out by Amazon.com Inc AMZN.O and Google Inc GOOG.O. Apple shares dropped 3.3 percent to $613.36.

Shares of elevator and air conditioner manufacturer United Technologies were down 1 percent at $77.07 while 3M shares were down 4.1 percent at $88.73.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI slid 243.36 points, or 1.82 percent, to close at 13,102.53. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX fell 20.71 points, or 1.44 percent, to 1,413.11. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC dropped 26.49 points, or 0.88 percent, to end at 2,990.46.

After the bell, shares of Facebook FB.O shot up 8.6 percent to $21.18 as the world's No. 1 online social network company posted a 32 percent jump in third-quarter revenue. Facebook ended the regular session at $19.50, up 0.9 percent.

One outlier from the regular session was United Parcel Service UPS.N, which gained 3 percent to $73.73 despite earnings that were viewed by some as disappointing. The Dow Jones Transportation Average .DJT rose 0.9 percent.

Overall earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to fall 2.5 percent in the third quarter from a year ago, Thomson Reuters data showed.

In a development reviving investors' worry about Europe, Moody's downgraded five key Spanish regions by one or two notches late on Monday, citing their limited cash reserves and forthcoming bond repayments.
Volume was roughly 6.6 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, compared with the year-to-date average daily closing volume of 6.52 billion.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Oct 23 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell 2 percent on Tuesday as concerns about slowing global economic growth, Europe's continuing debt crisis, and weak forecasts from U.S. corporations reporting quarterly earnings pressured oil and equities.
 
CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose for a second day, bucking a broad sell-off in commodities, as firm U.S. cash markets for soymeal and soybeans lifted front contracts against back months, traders said.

* Farmer soybean sales appear to have slowed as the U.S. harvest enters its final weeks. USDA late on Monday said the soy harvest was 80 percent complete, ahead of the five-year average of 69 percent.

• Soymeal futures posted the biggest gains in the complex as steady demand for high-protein soymeal from animal feeders and exporters keeps cash market strong.

• China may have to curb its huge soybean imports up until February 2013 because of tight supplies, and a continued trend of heavy Chinese buying could lift CBOT prices - Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World.

• Palm oil prices are likely to rise sharply in coming months on brisk buying interest as global importers seek cheaper alternatives to more expensive products including soyoil - Oil World.

• South Korea seeks 50,000 tonnes of non-genetically modified soybeans for arrival between July and August via tenders, Korea Argo-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp said.

• CBOT November soybean options expire on Friday.

FCPO- KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Tuesday as investors booked profits after the previous session's three-week high on worries that October's stronger-than-expected exports were not enough to trim record high stocks in the world's No.2 producer.

Prices went up to 2,580 ringgit on Monday, a level unseen since Sept. 28, after data from cargo surveyors showed that exports in the first twenty days of the month surged as much as 16.7 percent.

"Yesterday prices went up too fast, way above market expectations," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"Those who went long yesterday are now liquidating their positions and taking some profit because of the uncertainty over this export number," he added.

The benchmark January contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 1.4 percent to close at 2,540 ringgit ($831) per tonne.

Total traded volumes stood at 33,116 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots as investors hedged positions after the positive export data.

Technical analysis showed palm oil may rebound further to 2,676 ringgit per tonne, with a support level of 2,492 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Seasonally high production amid commodity demand weakened by a tepid global economy lifted palm oil stocks in Malaysia to a record high 2.5 million tonnes in September, hurting prices which has dropped one-fifth so far this year.

Despite the positive export numbers signalling improving demand from the European Union and Pakistan, investors remain wary about the future.

"I'm quite positive about it but as of now, that's the only hope that we have," the trader added.

"Whether the number is sufficient to bring the stock level lower or not for the coming report in November is still a big question."

In related markets, Brent futures slipped for a sixth day on Tuesday as worries about the global economy, and oil demand growth, resurfaced, but prices stayed above $109 a barrel, propped up by simmering tensions in the Middle East.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 slid 0.4 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active May 2013 soybean oil contract DBYcv1 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 0.6 percent.

REGIONAL EQUITY- Oct 23 (Reuters) - Most of the Southeast Asian stocks edged up on Tuesday in thin trading volume as investors cautiously bought risky assets ahead of quarterly earning release with Indonesia and Malaysia seeing mild foreign outflows.

Singapore .FTSTI, Malaysia .KLSE, and Vietnam .VNI edged up 0.2 percent each, while the Philippines .PSI closed 0.1 percent firmer.

Investors were on the sidelines to see the performance of the listed firms in the September quarter amid global slowdown concerns, analysts said.

Malaysia saw an outflow of 5.02 million, while Jakarta .JKSE which fell 0.3 percent, witnessed $12.95 million net foreign selling on Tuesday.

Thailand stock market .SETI was closed for a public holiday.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Oct 22 (Reuters) - The Dow industrials and the S&P 500 ended flat on Monday after a late-day bounce, as worries about slower global growth hitting corporate sales were offset by earnings that beat expectations.

Technology shares led the day's gains and pushed the Nasdaq up 0.4 percent, as shares of Apple Inc AAPL.O jumped 4 percent to $634.03. Apple is scheduled to report results on Thursday.

The S&P 500 closed on Monday just below its 50-day moving average of 1,434 - seen as a strong support level - after trading well below it for much of the session.

Heavy equipment maker Caterpillar CAT.N became the latest to exceed expectations on the bottom line - or profit - but fall short of revenue forecasts on the top line. The stock fell early, but the Dow component ended up 1.5 percent at $85.08.
Caterpillar also slashed its 2012 forecast for the second time this year due to slowing global demand.

Earnings have generally been beating lowered expectations, but revenues are weak and profit warnings remain frequent.

"The issue with the earnings reports is the outlooks for next year and next quarter are maybe a little worse than people expected," said Bryant Evans, investment advisor and portfolio manager at Cozad Asset Management, in Champaign, Illinois.

Of the 123 S&P 500 companies that have reported results so far, 60.2 percent have topped analysts' expectations for earnings, but 61 percent have missed revenue forecasts, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Third-quarter earnings are expected to fall 2.4 percent from a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters data.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 2.38 points, or 0.02 percent, to close at 13,345.89. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX inched up just 0.63 of a point, or 0.04 percent, to 1,433.82. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC rose 11.33 points, or 0.38 percent, to close at 3,016.96.

After the bell, shares of Yahoo YHOO.O gained 4.2 percent to $16.43 after the Internet company's quarterly earnings beat expectations and its chief executive officer said it is economically attractive to repurchase the stock at current price levels. Yahoo's stock ended regular trading at $15.77, down 0.4 percent.

During the regular session, shares of mining company Freeport-McMoRan FCX.N lost 1.5 percent to $40.58 after it said third-quarter profit fell sharply, missing Wall Street's estimates, because of a big drop in gold production in Indonesia.

On the up side was coal miner Peabody Energy Corp BTU.N. Its stock surged 11.8 percent to $28.95 after the company reported a third-quarter profit that beat analysts' expectations as improved U.S. margins and higher Australian sales volumes offset price declines.

Volume was roughly 5.8 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, compared with the year-to-date average daily closing volume of 6.52 billion.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Oct 22 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended lower on Monday as the November contract expired, with concerns about a slowing global economy and an expected pipeline restart pressuring prices and offsetting supportive worries about Middle East turmoil and the potential threat to the region's oil supply.
 
CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose to a one-week high, buoyed by a firm cash market and reminders of the strong pace of U.S. soy exports, traders said.

* USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 61.422 million bushels, well above trade expectations for 46 million to 49 million.

• The spot November soybean contract SX2 settled above its 20-day moving average at $15.44-3/4, a bullish sign, but it encountered resistance at the 100-day average near $15.60.

• Soymeal followed soybeans higher, also supported by strength in the cash market, while soyoil posted only slight gains.

• Cash soybean markets were steady to mixed in the U.S. Midwest interior on Monday but values had a firm tone as the harvest wound down and producer selling remained slow, traders said. Analysts expected USDA later on Monday to report the U.S. soybean harvest as 82 percent complete, up from 71 percent by Oct. 14.

• Expectations of a large South American soy harvest capped gains. Brazilian analyst Safras e Mercado raised its forecast of Brazil's 2012/13 soybean crop to a record 82.5 million tonnes, from its July estimate of 82.3 million, as farmers planted more than expected.

• Showers are forecast for Brazil's southern soy belt in coming days while the center-west will continue to receive below-average rainfall, local forecaster Somar said. The moisture could cause short-term planting delays but add beneficial soil moisture going forward.

• CBOT November options expire on Friday.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rose to their highest in more than three weeks on Monday, boosted by rising exports which investors said may help ease record stocks in the world's No.2 palm oil producer.

Latest data from cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance showed Malaysia's palm exports rose 16.7 percent for the first twenty days of October from a month ago, lending support to futures that have lost almost one-fifth so far this year.

Another cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services reported on Saturday a 14.1 percent increase in exports to 1.06 million tonnes for the same period, signalling buoyant demand for the tropical oil.

"The export numbers improved market sentiment. It's good to see positive signs after seeing so many negative signs lately," said a Singapore-based trader with a global commodities house.

"Prices are very likely to go to the 2,700-2,800 ringgit range but there may be dips in between."

At the close, the benchmark January contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 3 percent to 2,577 ringgit ($845) per tonne, just off an intraday high at 2,580 ringgit, a level unseen since Sept. 28.

Total traded volumes stood at 37,259 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 lots.
Palm oil prices fell to a near 3-year low earlier this month on fears over rising stocks and concerns that a sluggish global economic growth could hurt commodity demand.

But traders said low prices could lure buyers back to the market and also make the tropical oil an attractive choice to be used as biodiesel.

In related markets, Brent crude oil steadied above $110 per barrel on Monday as fighting in Beirut and Gaza raised fears for the security of fuel supplies from the Middle East, helping stem a four-day decline in prices.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 increase 1.1 percent in late Asian trade, drawing support from the Chicago soybeans market, which bounced back from a three-and-half month low last week.

The most-active May 2013 soybean oil contract DBYcv1 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange also closed 0.4 percent higher.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Indonesian stocks posted modest gains on Monday while most other Southeast Asian stocks regained some lost ground as investors hunted for bargains in index heavyweights such as Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS.JK ahead of earnings releases.

Jakarta's Composite Index .JKSE pared early losses to close near its day's high of 4,341.827, with energy stock Perusahaan Gas up 3 percent.

Macquarie Equities Research included Perusahaan Gas among stocks in Asia expected to report positive earnings surprises in this earnings season, it said in a report dated Oct. 19.

Bangkok's SET index .SETI rebounded from an earlier drop to end up 0.2 percent as investors picked stocks seen laggard. Among the actively traded companies, top industrial conglomerate Siam Cement SCC.BK gained 1.7 percent.
The Thai stock market will be closed on Tuesday for a public holiday.

Stocks in Singapore .FTSTI, Malaysia .KLSE, the Philippines .PSI and Vietnam .VNI bounced off their day's lows after earlier taking a lead from weak global markets.

Monday, October 22, 2012

Trader's Highlight


DJI-NEW YORKOct 19 (Reuters) - World stocks and crude oil fell on Friday as investors took a dim view of U.S. corporate earnings after General Electric and McDonald's disappointed, while Europe's debt crisis and ongoing concerns about global growth also weighed on sentiment.

The dollar climbed against the euro and the yen as a perceived lack of progress on a Spanish bailout request reminded investors of the headwinds facing the world economy.

Gold fell more than 1 percent, its biggest one-day slide in more than three months, as bullion was hit by technical selling and the decline on Wall Street, which erased most of the week's gains.

The CBOE Volatility Index the so-called fear gauge, jumped 13.5 percent to 17.06, its highest level since Sept. 5.

The stock market sell-off occurred on the 25th anniversary of the Black Monday crash of 1987, when the Dow plummeted 22.6 percent - its worst single-day percentage loss ever.

"This sell-off is definitely earnings-driven but there is also an element of profit taking after several strong days," said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co in New York.

Revenue missed analysts' expectations at GE due to unfavorable exchange rates, while McDonald's  profits also missed expectations because of the weak global economy.

GE fell 3.4 percent to $22.03 and McDonald's slid 4.5 percent to $88.72.

Of the 116 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the U.S. earnings season, 60 percent have exceeded analysts' estimates, a rate lower than the 67 percent pace of the previous four quarters, according to Thomson Reuters data.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 205.43 points, or 1.52 percent, at 13,343.51. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 24.15 points, or 1.66 percent, at 1,433.19. The Nasdaq Composite Index  was down 67.24 points, or 2.19 percent, at 3,005.62.

"We've had a nice run up and you start seeing these earnings miss. It may be time to take some money off the table," said Larry Peruzzi, senior equity trader at Cabrera Capital Markets Inc in Boston.

European shares snapped a four-day winning streak as signs of disagreement among European Union leaders over how to help the region's debt-ridden banks hit financial stocks.

Equities in Europe might be prone to a bigger fall because of the perceived lack of progress in finding long-lasting solutions to the euro zone debt crisis, said Luc Bocahut, a portfolio manager at Monaco-based Tiverton Trading.

"I would be quite bearish here. They really haven’t made much progress,” Bocahut said.

U.S. stocks extended their slide to more than 1.5 percent as earnings from large multinationals underscored the effect of the global economic slowdown.

MSCI's all-country world equity index was down 1.3 percent at 333.96.

In Europe, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of leading regional companies closed down 0.8 percent at 1,111.85, while the pan-regional Euro STOXX 50 closed down 1.24 percent at 2,542.24.

The euro slipped against the dollar as a perceived lack of progress on a Spanish bailout request curbed demand. Risk appetite also eased on a report showing U.S. home resales fell in September, a reminder that America's housing sector is a long way from a full recovery.

The euro was last down 0.3 percent at $1.3021, close to a session low of $1.3018.

U.S. Treasury prices edged up as selling pressure that has hurt the market the past four days subsided. Recent stronger U.S. economic data and hopes that European leaders are taking steps to resolve their debt crisis caused a dramatic jump in Treasuries yields this week amid heavy selling of the debt.

The market is also pricing in an expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start raising rates in 2014, instead of 2015, for the first time since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech in Jackson Hole in August, said Jim Vogel, interest rate strategist at FTN Financial in Memphis, Tennessee.

“The question everyone is asking is 'Was QE3 even necessary?' given that we are already seeing evidence of a nice third-quarter rebound,” he said.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was up 18/32 to yield 1.7677 percent.

Brent and U.S. crude futures fell more than 1 percent on concerns about the European debt crisis, a stronger dollar and the decline in equity markets.

December Brent crude oil futures slid $2.28 to settle at $110.14 a barrel. U.S. crude settled down $2.05 at $90.05 a barrel.

U.S. COMEX gold futures for December delivery settled down $20.70 an ounce at $1,724.

Spot gold was down 1.2 percent at $1,720.80 an ounce.

NYMEX- NEW YORKOct 19 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell more than 2 percent on Friday, pressured by revived concerns about the global economy and expectations that a pipeline moving Canadian crude oil to the United States will restart on schedule.
  
SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell nearly 1 percent on Friday as concerns about the global economy lifted the dollar and prompted investors to exit riskier assets including commodities, traders said.

* Investors took a dim view of U.S. corporate earnings after General Electric and McDonald's disappointed, while a perceived lack of progress on a Spanish bailout request reminded investors of the headwinds facing the world economy. 
  • Front-month soybeans hit a high for the week at $15.55-3/4 before turning lower.
  • Additional pressure, especially in deferred contracts, stemmed from Informa Economics raising its forecast of U.S. 2013 soybean plantings to 79.987 million acres, which if realized would be the most on record. 
  • For the week, soybeans held gains, rising 0.7 percent to snap a four-week slide. Soymeal ended the week down 2.1 percent, its sixth drop in seven weeks, while soyoil ended the week up more than 3 percent, halting a four-week skid.
  • Argentina's 2012/13 soybean harvest could reach a record high of between 55 million and 58 million tonnes if weather conditions remain favorable, Agriculture Secretary Lorenzo Basso said. 
  • Showers will likely taper off in Brazil's soy belt in coming days and keep rains below average for October as farmers aim for a record soybean harvest, local forecaster Somar said.
  • A cold front formed over southern Brazil earlier this week and will bring torrential rains to No. 3 soy state Rio Grande do Sul on Sunday, likely impeding planting. But warmer Atlantic Ocean waters are preventing those rains from moving north into top soy state Mato Grosso. 

FCPO- KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Friday, with market players confident of a recovery in demand thanks to strong Malaysian exports in the first half of the month and a major festival next month.

"There are more purchases from India and China - India especially - because Deepavali is coming soon. They need to stock up more on palm oil," said Malaysia's Public Investment Bank analyst Chong Hoe Leong, referring to the Hindu festival of lights set for Nov. 13.

"The current crude palm oil price is quite attractive for purchase because it's at the low base," he said, but warned that inventory levels are expected to stay consistently high for the remainder of the year.

At the close, the benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 0.2 percent to 2,501 ringgit ($820) per tonne. Prices have lost more than 21 percent so far since the start of the year.
Total traded volumes stood at 27,875 lots of 25 tonnes each, just slightly higher than the usual 25,000 lots.
For the week, the edible oil was almost flat, as concerns over record stocks offset expectations of stronger demand.

Market players will be watching out for exports numbers for Oct. 1-20 to further gauge demand trend, after both cargo surveyors reported an increase in exports for the first half of the month. 

Despite hopes for an improved exports trend, analysts say inventories, which hit a record high in September, remain worrying as palm oil production shows no signs of slowing, and Malaysia struggles to push out shipments quicker amid weaker global economic growth.

"For next year, it is a bit challenging for palm oil because we can see a slowdown in market activity especially in the major consuming countries," Chong said.

"That will be the major concern for the palm oil market, despite Malaysia recently imposing a lower tax structure starting from next year," he added, referring to the tax cut from the current level of 23 percent per tonne. 

In a bullish sign for palm oil, Brent crude futures held steady at above $112 a barrel on Friday, but analysts and traders said a move to the downside was likely because the UK's Buzzard oilfield was expected to restart this weekend while the demand outlook remained weak. 

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery fell 0.2 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active May 2013 soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were almost flat.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets ended weaker to flat on Friday as investors cashed in on earlier gains in regional large caps and banks amid global market weakness, while Thailand was led down by telecom shares such as Advanced Info Service.

Jakarta's Composite Index ended down 0.6 percent at 4,331.25, coming off an all-time closing high of 4,356.96 set on Thursday. It still rose 0.6 percent on the week, in line with modest gains in other markets of the region.

Malaysia's main index edged up 0.06 percent at 1,666.35, topping Thursday's record close of 1,665.42.

In Bangkok, profit-taking hit telecoms stocks, with market leader Advanced Info Service off 0.5 percent. Total Access Communication, the No. 2 telecoms company, fell 0.8 percent and its Singapore-listed shares  dropped 2.4 percent.

The auction for the radio frequencies required for the long overdue introduction of faster third-generation (3G) mobile services this week removed a key overhang on Thailand's telecoms sector, boosting telecoms stocks and lifting the SET index above the 1,300-mark.

Banking shares were in focus this week amid their quarterly earnings announcement. Bangkok Bank, Thailand's biggest, fell 1.3 percent before it reported a weaker-than-expected third-quarter net profit after market close.