Thursday, January 8, 2009

Trader's Comment: “Bull” finally got defeated and ended its 8 straight days of winning streak

“Bull” finally got defeated and ended its 8 straight days of winning streak. Palm oil futures “dived” sharply lower after trading in a ranging mood. Benchmark Mar09 gapped down RM80 to open at 1905 following overnight crude oil tumbled more than 12% while CBOT also ended significantly lower. It then hit the intra day high of 1920 as it hovered between 1898-1919 level through out the morning session. CPO prices began to weaken further after second session resumed when it started to fall and hit the intra day low at 1864. However, some buying support came in and pushed up CPO prices to the earlier range again before Benchmark Mar09 was finally sold down to settle RM120 lower at 1865.

Breaking News-RTRS-Low river levels hamper Argentine grain shipments

BUENOS AIRES, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Unusually low water levels along Argentina's crucial shipping artery, the Parana River, have forced vessels to load grains and soy only partially, generating millions of dollars in shipping losses.
A drought in northern Argentina has drained the Parana to worrying levels this month, experts said on Tuesday. The country's biggest grains ports are located along the waterway.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 2-China taps Latam soyoil to refill 150,000 T reserves

BEIJING, Jan 7 (Reuters) - China is buying South American soyoil to replenish government reserves as it sells around 150,000 tonnes into the rising domestic market ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, traders said on Wednesday.

Trader's Comment: The “bull” struggled and fought fiercely with the incoming “bear” by countering attack on last minute trading.

The “bull” struggled and fought fiercely with the incoming “bear” by countering attack on last minute trading. Palm oil futures had forgone its earlier gains yet managed to recoup back its losses to finally end in a positive territory. Benchmark Mar09 initially hit intra day high of 2058 after gapped up RM44 at open, tracking the earlier limit up prices traded in Dalian palm. It then slid to 1973 but able to bounce back slightly to 2016 by mid day. However, market sentiment in second session immediately turned bearish following eCBOT soy complex began to fall while Dalian palm also started to ease off. CPO prices fell sharply to intra day low of 1868 before it hovered between 1915-1895 level through out the afternoon session. Nevertheless, the “bull” unexpectedly returned with a vengeance in late trading and sent Benchmark Mar09 to rebound again and settled RM5 higher at 1985. Daily volume was heavy with 25,653 contracts changed hands. (Highest volume was in June 2007 at 37,321 contracts)

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Jan 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks suffered their worst decline in more than a month on Wednesday after a grim private-sector jobs report coupled with a revenue warning from top chip maker Intel Corp revived deep concerns about
the economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 244.68 points, or 2.71 percent, to 8,770.42. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> dropped 28.00 points, or 3 percent, to 906.70. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> tumbled 53.32 points, or 3.23 percent, at 1,599.06.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Jan 7 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures slumped more than 12 percent on Wednesday, the biggest one-day percentage loss since September 2001, after U.S. government data showed domestic stocks of crude oil and refined products
rose much more than expected last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, February crude settled at $42.63, down $5.95, or 12.25 percent, after trading from $42.41 to $49.09. It was the biggest percentage loss for a day since prices fell 15.25 percent on Sept. 24, 2001.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - January down 24-1/4 at $9.90; March down 26 at $9.90.
Profit-taking after Tuesday's surge above $10 in spot month for the first time in three months. Chinese soy demand and South American crop concerns underpin prices. But drier areas of Argentina and Brazil to see rain next week.

CBOT-SOYOIL - January down 1.13 cents at 35.92 cents per lb; March down 1.13 cent at 36.18 cents. Profit-taking spurred by drop in crude oil. Weaker dollar supportive.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures ended slightly higher on Wednesday, recovering from a drop of nearly 6 percent at one stage, thanks to last-minute speculative buying, traders said.

The market came under heavy selling pressure in the afternoon session as investors began to lock in profits, as the price had rallied for seven consecutive trading days, traders said.

The benchmark March palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange closed up 5 ringgit, or 0.25 percent, at 1,985 ringgit ($567) per tonne, coming off an intra-day high of 2,058 ringgit and a low of 1,868 ringgit.

Other traded contracts were mostly lower, falling by between 18 and 102 ringgit. Overall volume was 25,653 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-Most major Southeast Asian marekts gave up early gains, with
Singapore's index <.FTSTI> down 1.7 percent at the close and Indonesia's <.JKSE> ending 0.98 percent lower.

Malaysia's stock index erased most of its 1.6 percent gain to close up just 0.58 percent after weak export data, despite expectations that the central bank would cut interest rates.

FCPO Daily: Bull taking a break


Bull took a little breathe after the recent rebound to 2000 mark. Market looks may extend its correction mode in near term market. We now looking the immediate upside resistance at 2058. Immediate downside support is pegged at 1840-1800.

KLSE Daily: Losing strength


Market is losing strength and looks may due for correction after the recent rally. We now looking for resistance and support at 936 and 901-897 level respectively.

FKLI Daily: Due for correction


Market losing strength after covered most of the gap at 931-944. Looks market may due for correction in near term. We now looking for downside support at 903.5-901 (gap left over on 5/1/2009. Upside resistance is at 942.5.

DJI Daily: Failed to sustain at 9000 mark


Market failed to sustain at 9000 mark and looks little tiring after few attempts try to hold ground. Market looks facing tough resistance at 9000-9088. Downside support is pegged at 8372-8347.