Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures surged to new recent high on bullish USDA report.

Palm oil futures surged to new recent high on bullish USDA report. Overnight CBOT soy complex rallied strongly on the concern of supply constraints after USDA estimated US farmer would plant 76.0 million acres of soybeans, which was significantly lower than market expectation of 79.1 million acres. Benchmark Jun09 opened RM30 higher at 2030. It initially slid to intra day low of 2010 but then bounced back again and started to hover between 2041-2021 level through out most of the sessions. However, some aggressive short covering activities began to emerge in late trading and saw benchmark Jun09 rallied to settle at intra day high of 2070. Trading volume increased dramatically with total 26,304 contracts changed hands.

Breaking News-RTRS-Palm oil use to rise and stocks to fall- Oil World

HAMBURG, March 31 (Reuters) - Global palm oil consumption will rise above output this season, cutting stocks and moving demand towards other edible oils, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday.
Global Oct 2008/Sept 2009 palm oil consumption is likely to rise to 44.77 million tonnes, up from 41.22 million tonnes in 2007/08, it forecast. This would be above estimated 2008/09 production of 44.57 million tonnes, also up from 42.36 million tonnes in 2007/08.

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 31 - U.S. stocks climbed on Tuesday, driving the S&P 500 to its best month since October 2002, as investors snapped up top-performing bank and
technology shares as the first quarter came to an end.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 86.90 points, or 1.16 percent, to 7,608.92. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 10.34 points, or 1.31 percent, to 797.87. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 26.79 points, or 1.78 percent, to 1,528.59.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, March 31 - U.S. crude oil futures pared gains in post-settlement trading on Tuesday after the American
Petroleum Institute's inventory report showed a larger-than-expected build in domestic crude stocks.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, at 4:50 p.m. EDT (2050 GMT), May crude was up 48 cents at $48.89 a barrel. It had settled up $1.25, or 2.58 percent, at $49.66, after trading $47.77 to $50.00

CBOT - SOYBEANS
- May up 47-1/2 at $9.52; new-crop November up 50 at $8.92.
Rallies on USDA's smaller-than-expected U.S. soy plantings forecast of 76.024 million acres, versus average trade estimate for 79.622 million. If realized, forecast would be a record, surpassing the 75.718 million seeded in 2008.

CBOT - SOYOIL - May up 1.58 cents at 33.62 cents per lb. Led higher by soy and weak dollar.

FCPO
- KUALA LUMPUR, March 31 - Malaysian palm oil futures climbed 1.5 percent on Tuesday as exports were seen recovering, although expectations of higher U.S soy plantings in a report due later in the day could weigh on global vegetable
oil prices.

Prices of palm oil have risen 18 percent in the first quarter of 2009 on higher crude oil prices and lower output, but have failed to remain above the 2,000 ringgit level on lacklustre exports.

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled up 30 ringgit at 2,000 ringgit ($548.8) per tonne after going as high as 2,002 ringgit.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
- BANGKOK, March 31 - Stocks in Singapore and Indonesia rose more than 1 percent on Tuesday, leading major Southeast Asian markets higher, with DBS and Bank Mandiri among big-caps recovering from the latest dismal U.S. auto sector news.

On Monday President Barack Obama ordered General Motors and Chrysler LLC to accelerate their survival efforts and brace for possible bankruptcy, saying neither had done enough to justify the taxpayer money they were seeking.

But Singapore's benchmark index ended up 1.6 percent on Tuesday, recouping some of its 4.2 percent loss on Monday. DBS Group Holdings, Southeast Asia's biggest bank, which fell 4 percent on Monday, climbed nearly 3 percent.

In Kuala Lumpur, the index rose 0.4 percent, with banks outperforming the broader market. Top lender Maybank surged 5.4 percent and Public Bank gained 1.3
percent. State-run oil firm Petronas jumped 5 percent.

DJI Daily: in Consolidation phase


Consolidation phase may extended with resistance and support is stood at 8000 and 7300-7200 level respectively.

KLSE Daily: Sideways


Not much improvement with a mild gain. We continue to look for the upside resistance at 890. To the downside, support is pegged at 860-850.

FKLI Daily: Limited upside


Market looks a little tiredness and under pressure to maintain its current posture. Thus, upside gain may limited with tough resistance at 890-895. While, downside support remained at 860-850.

FCPO Daily: 2000 mark defended


Market looks pretty well support as closing off the intra-day high at 2000 mark. Bull looks do not want to give up and may want to challenge again the recent high at 2051-2058. We are expecting a rally in near term market if 2051-2058 manage to break through convincingly. To the downside, support is remained at 1955-1950.