RTRS - Soymeal supplies to remain tight up to May -Oil World

HAMBURG, April 23 (Reuters) - Global soymeal supplies are likely to remain tight into May and possibly even June because of a slow start to exports of South America’s new soybean crop this year, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

Consumers of soymeal, a major animal feed, have been awaiting large exports of new crop Argentine and Brazilian soybeans in early 2013 to relieve a tight global market. Prices hit record highs in September 2012 as drought hit the U.S. crop.

“Arrivals of soybeans and products in the importing countries will remain insufficient in April and partly also in May as a result of the continuing severe reduction of exports in March,” Oil World said.

“This affects primarily consumers of soymeal, reflected in the unusual strength of soymeal prices for prompt delivery,” the firm added.

New crop exports from Brazil have been limited by congestion in Brazilian ports, while Argentine farmers have been reluctant sellers in the face of uncertain government policy.

Nearby prices for soymeal were strong in the European market on Monday on worries that congestion in Brazilian ports could lead to a supply squeeze.

The European Union is the main area suffering from reduced South American soymeal exports, Oil World said.

“On the European market, the small arrivals in recent months and the still-delayed shipments from South America have created a severe shortage in the nearby (delivery positions),” it said.

“A notable improvement of soymeal supplies in Rotterdam and other European trading spots may not occur before June.”

RTRS - China HSBC Flash PMI eases, points to tepid Q2 recovery

BEIJING, April 23 (Reuters) - Growth in China's vast factory sector dipped in April as new export orders shrank, a preliminary survey of factory managers showed on Tuesday, suggesting the world's second-largest still faces formidable global headwinds into the second quarter.

The flash HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index for April fell to 50.5 in April from 51.6 in March but was still stronger than February's reading of 50.4.

A sub-index measuring new export orders fell to 48.6 in April from 50.5 in March, reflecting weaker global demand as the U.S. economic recovery remains fragile and the euro zone is mired in recession.

The latest PMI data may overshadow China's recovery in the second quarter after growth unexpectedly slowed to 7.7 percent in the first quarter from 7.9 percent in the previous three months.

Still, the HSBC PMI has been above the 50-point level demarcating growth from contraction from the previous month since November 2012, though its failure to break above 53 indicates that the economic expansion it signals is only moderate.

"New export orders contracted after a temporary rebound in March, suggesting external demand for China's exporters remains weak," said HSBC's China chief economist Qu Hongbin.

"Beijing is expected to respond strongly to sustain the economic recovery by increasing efforts to boost domestic investment and consumption in the coming months.”

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its 2013 forecast for global growth to 3.3 percent, down from its January projection of 3.5 percent.

Sub-indexes measuring both input and output prices fell in April, indicating overcapacity upstream and soft demand, according to the Flash PMI survey.

An employment sub-index also dipped as factory activity cooled, although China's job market is holding up relatively well despite slower growth.

TEPID RECOVERY

The latest Reuters poll showed China's economic growth could pick up in the second quarter as the government boosts infrastructure spending.

Analysts in the poll expected full-year economic growth to pick up slightly to 8.0 percent in 2013 from 7.8 percent last year, its weakest rate since 1999.

The government is expected to step up infrastructure investment to cushion the economy against global headwinds, but a big stimulus package looks unlikely as Beijing plans to deepen reforms to put growth on a more sustainable long-term footing.

On Tuesday the China Daily newspaper quoted a researcher from the Ministry of Finance as saying that stimulus on the scale of that in 2008 was not necessary, as the economy is on an overall stable trend.

China has set a 7.5 percent GDP growth target for 2013, a level Beijing deems sufficient for job creation while providing room to deliver structural adjustment.

The Q1 slowdown, which came despite a credit boom, suggesting the cash sloshing around the economy is not having the desired effect of stoking growth and could instead exacerbate property and inflationary risks.

The final HSBC manufacturing PMI is scheduled to be published on May 2, a day after the official PMI.

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, April 23 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks climbed on Tuesday in a broad rally, recovering from sharp declines sparked by a "bogus" Associated Press tweet about explosions at the White House.

A false tweet by hackers of two explosions at the White House that injured U.S. President Barack Obama provoked a steep drop in stocks, before they quickly recovered minutes later.

Thomson Reuters data showed the benchmark S&P 500 index fell 14.6 points, or 0.93 percent, in the space of 3 minutes when the tweet hit the market. With the S&P 500 valued at about $14.6 trillion at the time of the false tweet, the plunge briefly wiped out $136.5 billion of the index's value.

"If that was true that had happened, that’s a justified selloff, but because people suffer from information overload, people tend to overreact and don’t wait to substantiate things - that is the downside to a 24-7 news cycle," said Jason Weisberg, managing director of Seaport Securities Corp in New York.

"You want instantaneous pricing, you want all the advantages of the technology, well then, you have to live by the negatives that the speed and expediency provide."

The move was a reminder of the May 6, 2010, tumble in markets now known as the "flash crash," when the Dow industrials dropped more than 600 points, eventually piling up a loss of about 1,000 points, in a few minutes before recovering.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 152.29 points, or 1.05 percent, to close at 14,719.46. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 16.28 points, or 1.04 percent, to finish at 1,578.78. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 35.78 points, or 1.11 percent, to end at 3,269.33.

Netflix Inc shares jumped 24.4 percent to $216.99 while Coach shot up 9.8 percent to $55.55. They were the S&P 500's two biggest percentage gainers.

"We are encouraged to see the market focusing on fundamentals, because we had been in a period where the macro trade was pretty much driving things - whatever the global macro event was or political event was seemed to be affecting the movement of the markets for a period of time," said Paul Mangus, head of equity research and strategy at Wells Fargo Private Bank in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Oils - NEW YORK, April 23 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil edged lower on Tuesday in reaction to weak manufacturing data in China and Europe, but it closed above $100 a barrel for a second straight day as it drew some support from strong gains in U.S. equity markets.

The flash HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 50.5 in April from 51.6 a month earlier as new export orders shrank in China.

The PMI's 50-point level divides growth from contraction from the month before. The data followed lower-than-expected GDP growth for China in the first quarter, which helped spark a sharp sell-off last week.

There was also a surprise decline in business activity among German companies, although the overall euro zone services PMI rose slightly and met economists' forecasts.

"People are worried about a slowdown in China and Europe, but I think with the stock market going higher today, Brent is going to rebound a bit," said Mark Waggoner, president at Excel Futures in Portland, Oregon.

June Brent crude settled down 8 cents at $100.31 a barrel after falling by more than $1.50 in earlier trading. U.S. crude for June deliverysettled down 1 cent at $89.18 a barrel after falling more than $1 earlier.

CBOT Soybean - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended mixed, with front-month May lifted by firm cash markets due to scarce supplies of old-crop U.S. soybeans and soymeal, traders said.

·         Back months pressured by forecasts for improved warmer and   drier crop weather beginning next week in the U.S. crop belt.   Recent heavy rainfall has brought most areas out of drought   status, boosting crop production prospects. 

·         May soybean contract broke through resistance at its  50- and 100-day moving averages but pared gains late in the  session on spillover pressure from corn and wheat. New-crop  November soybeans set a 10-month low.

·         Global soymeal supplies are likely to remain tight into    May and possibly even June because of a slow start to exports of  South America’s new soybean crop this year, oilseeds analysts Oil World said. 

·         Argentina is likely to export more soyoil in coming months    because of weak international demand for its soyoil-based  biodiesel - Oil World. 

·         USDA said private exporters reported sales of 392,000   tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in 2013/14.

·         An elderly man in eastern China died of bird flu on   Tuesday, bringing the death toll from a strain that recently  emerged in humans to 22. China has culled thousands of birds and shut down some live poultry markets. 

BMD CPO - SINGAPORE, April 23 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures inched up on Tuesday as a drop in prices to 4-month lows in the previous session attracted some buyers, although gains were limited by slowing export demand.

A preliminary reading on Tuesday showed manufacturing growth in China slowed in April, further weighing on riskier assets such as shares and some commodities after disappointing economic data last week triggered a sharp market sell-off.

But traders said palm oil prices drew some support from bargain hunting after tumbling to a 4-month low the previous day on sluggish exports and bearish external factors.

"We see some bargain hunting today, but overall sentiment is still volatile especially on the macroeconomic front. Support remains at 2,250 ringgit," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.

The benchmark July contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.8 percent to close at 2,272 ringgit ($743) per tonne. Prices fell to 2,250 ringgit on Monday, a level not seen since Dec. 14.

Total traded volumes stood at 35,888 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly more than the average 35,000 lots seen so far this year.

SLUGGISH PALM EXPORTS

Malaysian palm oil exports for April 1-20 fell 6.4 percent to 864,206 tonnes from 922,987 tonnes shipped during March 1-20, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said.

Sluggish exports could prevent end-stocks from easing below the psychological 2-million-tonne mark, putting more pressure on palm oil prices. Inventory level fell to 2.17 million tonnes in March, down 11 percent from February's 2.44 million tonnes.

In other markets, Brent crude fell below $99 a barrel after weaker-than-expected manufacturing data from China and Germany darkened the outlook for fuel demand.

The flash HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 50.5 in April from 51.6 the month before as new export orders shrank in China. The PMI's 50-point level demarcates growth from contraction from the month before.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for July delivery edged down 0.6 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange fell 1 percent.